Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

caveat emptor

Leo on claire Byrne.

Get's asked about contact tracing and measures in Germany and whether we should do something similar.

Starts talking about China and democracy. :rolleyes:

Now talking about long term risk to young people.

They've changed tune on that big time recently.

SusanC10

How likely is it that more Counties move to Level 3 ? Will Dublin move to Level 4 ? This week or next ?

My understanding was that there could only be 2 Levels in operation at the same time in the Country.

Thoughts ?

bush

SusanC10 wrote: »

How likely is it that more Counties move to Level 3 ?

Very likely the whole country will go to level 3

KrustyUCC

4 cases in in Cork Direct Provision centre according to the Echo

Interestingly only a third of residents went for previous mass testing when it was offered

Nermal

Goldengirl wrote: »

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30271-6/fulltext
Read for yourself.. One study .

OK, I read it.

This study just describes 600+ children who presented to hospital with a positive COVID test and various symptoms and attempts to characterise a new condition.

It doesn't provide any evidence - statistical or otherwise - that there actually is a new condition and that it's associated with COVID. Children would have presented with symptoms like this before COVID. Are there more now? We don't know.

Let's get past that and assume there is a genuinely new condition and that it's linked to COVID. Tens of millions of children all over the world have had COVID in the past few months. Our hospitals are not full of sick children. The authors of this paper had to exhaustively search the literature to find 600 possible examples of it - of which, by the way, only 11 died. The prevalence of this condition, if it exists, is going to be absolutely miniscule.

I don't think anyone is reading the papers they're posting.

manniot2

To give an indication of the fear out there - my uncle is in his late 50s. Had cancer 20 years ago but is healthy as a rhino now. he is out of his mind with fear. he has moved into the garage to distance himself from the family (daughters a teacher). he has meals at different times to them and when entering the house he goes in the window. this is not a joke.

Funsterdelux

manniot2 wrote: »

To give an indication of the fear out there - my uncle is in his late 50s. Had cancer 20 years ago but is healthy as a rhino now. he is out of his mind with fear. he has moved into the garage to distance himself from the family (daughters a teacher). he has meals at different times to them and when entering the house he goes in the window. this is not a joke.

He goes in the window?

Can you expand on that

Zebra3

Sorry folks, but never got any answer to this yesterday evening.

This is not aimed at the poster I'm quoting, but at what Nolan did or didn't say.

caveat emptor wrote: »

Dr Henry: “No evidence yet of sustained immunity making herd immunity Very risky.”

Dr Nolan: “ a lot of young people will have to die to reach it”

What figure of young people deaths did Nolan give and what evidence did he show to back up his claim that "a lot of young people will die" in the above scenario?

I assume that somebody in such a position cannot go in front of the media and make a claim like that off the top of their head, so what evidence was given to back up the claim?

hetuzozaho

manniot2 wrote: »

To give an indication of the fear out there - my uncle is in his late 50s. Had cancer 20 years ago but is healthy as a rhino now. he is out of his mind with fear. he has moved into the garage to distance himself from the family (daughters a teacher). he has meals at different times to them and when entering the house he goes in the window. this is not a joke.

Why in the window?

Boggles

manniot2 wrote: »

To give an indication of the fear out there - my uncle is in his late 50s. Had cancer 20 years ago but is healthy as a rhino now. he is out of his mind with fear. he has moved into the garage to distance himself from the family (daughters a teacher). he has meals at different times to them and when entering the house he goes in the window. this is not a joke.

That's not an indication of the level of fear out there.

That is one man who clearly needs an intervention.

How does he manage to do a days work?

Remotely from the garage?

Also unless he is bounding in through the window, it's a much riskier exercise as he has to touch things.

But in reality the only risk is he injuring himself by climbing in a window.

manniot2

Boggles wrote: »

That's not an indication of the level of fear out there.

That is on man who clearly needs an intervention.

How does he manage to do a days work?

Remotely from the garage?

he goes in a window to the kitchen to avoid the living area the family hang out in.

he is a tradesman and works out of his garage (where he now sleeps)

caveat emptor

Great photo of CUH frontline workers. Why are they not wearing masks? There is huge transmission still occurring in healthcare settings. 228 cases in Health care workers from 01/09/2020 - 14/09/2020. Wonder why.

60 cases where transmission in healthcare setting. FFS

https://twitter.com/CcoHse/status/1239280325588660224?s=20




https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-19casesinhealthcareworkers/HCW_report_15092020_2.2_web_.pdf

Boggles

manniot2 wrote: »

he goes in a window to the kitchen to avoid the living area the family hang out in.

he is a tradesman and works out of his garage (where he now sleeps)

Aldi were selling camping toilets the other week.

Tell him he should get one of those, cut down on going in the window.

Funsterdelux

Boggles wrote: »

Aldi were selling camping toilets the other week.

Tell him he should get one of those, cut down on going in the window.

Sounds like Leo might need on too

manniot2

Boggles wrote: »

Aldi were selling camping toilets the other week.

Tell him he should get one of those, cut down on going in the window.

his garage has a toilet. i wish i was joking.

Plumbthedepths

Zebra3 wrote: »

Sorry folks, but never got any answer to this yesterday evening.

This is not aimed at the poster I'm quoting, but at what Nolan did or didn't say.



What figure of young people deaths did Nolan give and what evidence did he show to back up his claim that "a lot of young people will die" in the above scenario?

I assume that somebody in such a position cannot go in front of the media and make a claim like that off the top of their head, so what evidence was given to back up the claim?

He offered none. The problem is at the early stages government admitted that it was the elderly and vulnerable who were most at risk from the virus. In other words a disease that has little impact on the young. Now they are trying to row back on this information because clearly the youth don't give a shiny one and have decided to carry on with their lives.

s1ippy

caveat emptor wrote: »

Leo on claire Byrne.

Get's asked about contact tracing and measures in Germany and whether we should do something similar.

Starts talking about China and democracy. :rolleyes:

Now talking about long term risk to young people.

They've changed tune on that big time recently.

Thanks for listening, because I can't bring myself to.

US2

bush wrote: »

Very likely the whole country will go to level 3

No way Tipperary goes to level 3. If it does, the whole level system was a complete waste of time

Zebra3

US2 wrote: »

No way Tipperary goes to level 3. If it does, the whole level system was a complete waste of time

The whole level system has been a waste of time since day one.

There'd be five levels we were told. Five minutes later Dublin was going to Level 2 and a bit.

But we need to lap up every word from these experts.

caveat emptor

Zebra3 wrote: »

Sorry folks, but never got any answer to this yesterday evening.

This is not aimed at the poster I'm quoting, but at what Nolan did or didn't say.



What figure of young people deaths did Nolan give and what evidence did he show to back up his claim that "a lot of young people will die" in the above scenario?

I assume that somebody in such a position cannot go in front of the media and make a claim like that off the top of their head, so what evidence was given to back up the claim?

Thanks for not having a go. I quoted him word for word. I can't answer for him but I guess the following.

I suppose it depends on definition of young and a lot. The number of that cohort who have already had it. So if it's only been 5% then that's 95% of that age group left to get it. If the death rate is a even smaller than half a percent then you could reasonably say a lot of young people will die.

I don't know though.

I'd be more concerned with the long term aspect and reinfection in years to come then the numbers will continue to increase.

Funsterdelux

manniot2 wrote: »

his garage has a toilet. i wish i was joking.

I understand his fear, but a few practical steps would make the situation less haphazard. Having the garage to use is very fortunate.

He could get hotplate/small oven microwave etc.

Wear ppe when entering living area.

manniot2

Funsterdelux wrote: »

I understand his fear, but a few practical steps would make the situation less haphazard.

He could get hotplate/small oven microwave etc.

Wear ppe when entering living area.

u understand that level of fear?

Boggles

manniot2 wrote: »

his garage has a toilet. i wish i was joking.

You mean his garage / bedroom / work place?

Tell him to install a shower, oven and sink.

He won't need to go near the house then.

bush

manniot2 wrote: »

To give an indication of the fear out there - my uncle is in his late 50s. Had cancer 20 years ago but is healthy as a rhino now. he is out of his mind with fear. he has moved into the garage to distance himself from the family (daughters a teacher). he has meals at different times to them and when entering the house he goes in the window. this is not a joke.

Jesus thats grim

Gruffalux

Or get a little caravan.

seamus

SusanC10 wrote: »

How likely is it that more Counties move to Level 3 ? Will Dublin move to Level 4 ? This week or next ?

Yeah, whole country could move to level 3. It depends, we're tenatively looking quite stable at the moment. If the positivity rate doesn't move much over the next 7-10 days, we might stick where we are. If it dips down, then Dublin might get back to level 2. If it trends up, the rest of the country might move to level 3.

The last two days, Dublin's case numbers have returned to "typical", i.e. about 40% of the total. So I see no call for level 4 in Dublin just yet.

A few specific counties might be called out for level 3. Donegal being one. Problem with Donegal is they're a law unto themselves, so whether anyone there will pay a blind bit of notice is anyone's guess.

hetuzozaho

Boggles wrote: »

Also unless he is bounding in through the window, it's a much riskier exercise as he has to touch things.

I shouldn't be laughing but this killed me!

Zebra3

caveat emptor wrote: »

Thanks for not having a go. I quoted him word for word. I can't answer for him but I guess the following.

I suppose it depends on definition of young and a lot. The number of that cohort who have already had it. So if it's only been 5% then that's 95% of that age group left to get it. If the death rate is a even smaller than half a percent then you could reasonably say a lot of young people will die.

I don't know though.

I'd be more concerned with the long term aspect and reinfection in years to come then the numbers will continue to increase.

Yeah, it never about yourself, just curious about what Nolan said.

The part I've highlighted in bold is what gets me. No figures. Just a vague throw away comment that you'd hear in the pub. Imagine going into a production management meeting.

"What are the production figures like?"

"We made a lot of chocolate bars this morning".

No figure, no time span given. You'd be demolished by your boss.

Also a so-called expert given free reign to influence the people and policy makers and making fairly random comments about such a serious situation without backing up their claim.

If somebody is on Sky Sports and asked to make a prediction on a football match, after they give their prediction, the presenter will ask them why and they'll give their thoughts on why X will win or whatever.

This just isn't good enough to any of us regardless of what our opinions are on the situation.

Funsterdelux

manniot2 wrote: »

u understand that level of fear?

I had a long reply but got a call now its gone. Anyway just trying to help

JDD

caveat emptor wrote: »

Thanks for not having a go. I quoted him word for word. I can't answer for him but I guess the following.

I suppose it depends on definition of young and a lot. The number of that cohort who have already had it. So if it's only been 5% then that's 95% of that age group left to get it. If the death rate is a even smaller than half a percent then you could reasonably say a lot of young people will die.

I don't know though.

I'd be more concerned with the long term aspect and reinfection in years to come then the numbers will continue to increase.

I suppose if you define "young people" as under 35, there have been 6 deaths in that age category to date. Now, we have approx 30k confirmed infections, but we all know there is and was way more than that out there. At a conservative estimate you might say that 5 times the confirmed infections have actually occurred, or 150,000.

To achieve herd immunity you need to have had about 60% of the population infected. Or 3m people in our case. So we'd need 20 times the amount of infections that we have had already (at a conservative estimate). If there have been 6 deaths so far, you might expect 120 deaths in under 35s if you were looking for herd immunity.