Beef price tracker 2

Bass Reeves

wrangler wrote: »

I wouldn't be celebrating yet, look at the lamb price being reeled in, price down a euro/kg in a fortnight. As less farmers are finshing cattle in the frirst six months will surely mean higher supply in the autumn. It'll be interesting to see will it exceed the demand that's out there. There seems to bemore cattle in the system too

Cattle kill is expected to be back 120k this year compared to last year. We are about 60k below the figure at present. Projections are there is another 60k of a shortfall to be eaten into.

Higher supply will not really materialize until November/December untill 2020 cattle start to really come into the system. That is not to say that the processors will not try to pull a stunt like a few years ago and as they did in February and collude to drop the price. However they are being asked hard questions about February. The EU competition authority get to the insurance industry when the Irish CA failed. It is quite possible they may get involved beef price fixing as well

wrangler

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Cattle kill is expected to be back 120k this year compared to last year. We are about 60k below the figure at present. Projections are there is another 60k of a shortfall to be eaten into.

Higher supply will not really materialize until November/December untill 2020 cattle start to really come into the system. That is not to say that the processors will not try to pull a stunt like a few years ago and as they did in February and collude to drop the price. However they are being asked hard questions about February. The EU competition authority get to the insurance industry when the Irish CA failed. It is quite possible they may get involved beef price fixing as well

I thought actually it was one of your posts that said there was more cattle in the system.

Bass Reeves

wrangler wrote: »

I thought actually it was one of your posts that said there was more cattle in the system.

I do not think so. 2019 cattle were always going to be the lowest numbers we had in a few years. 2020 cattle will be up compared to 2019 by about 180-200k. 2021 bien cattle retained in the country due to be slaughtered in 2023 are up again.

People paying stupid prices for 2020 born cattle cod be in for a shock next year

jaymla627

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I do not think so. 2019 cattle were always going to be the lowest numbers we had in a few years. 2020 cattle will be up compared to 2019 by about 180-200k. 2021 bien cattle retained in the country due to be slaughtered in 2023 are up again.

People paying stupid prices for 2020 born cattle cod be in for a shock next year

Look up the situation occuring in America re lake meade, large swathes of califronia agricultural land will be left idle next year as water rights are in all likelihood been pulled, i reckon food prices are in for a period of serious inflation

Danzy

jaymla627 wrote: »

Look up the situation occuring in America re lake meade, large swathes of califronia agricultural land will be left idle next year as water rights are in all likelihood been pulled, i reckon food prices are in for a period of serious inflation

Agriculture west of Chicago in America and Canada is in big trouble this year with drought.

It's not like the last decade was any way wet enough to keep problems at bay for them.

It will affect their herd and there are questions about whether the 100mn+ people in the West are overstocked.

Water supply and electricity may be at breaking in autumn there.

It's 20 years now, quite a few experts there say this is the new normal there and that the last 2 centuries were a wetter than normal phase.

It should affect here but market forces are always moderated here for the Monopoly.

Cavanjack

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I do not think so. 2019 cattle were always going to be the lowest numbers we had in a few years. 2020 cattle will be up compared to 2019 by about 180-200k. 2021 bien cattle retained in the country due to be slaughtered in 2023 are up again.

People paying stupid prices for 2020 born cattle cod be in for a shock next year

I suppose anyone buying stores now are just after killing cattle and getting good prices.
Some say Your profit is the difference between what you sell and what you buy back in for, not what you buy for and what you sell for.

Good loser

Jjameson wrote: »

The claim was that it’s a high volume low margin business. That they couldn’t give more. There’s 3 to 500 per animal after appearing to farmers from somewhere in this business.
So who was benefiting in 19?

Supply is down demand is up. Consequences.

Bass Reeves

Cavanjack wrote: »

I suppose anyone buying stores now are just after killing cattle and getting good prices.
Some say Your profit is the difference between what you sell and what you buy back in for, not what you buy for and what you sell for.

Yes I am a believer in that element of the market. However because stores were scares last autumn they were harder bought than they should have been. As well less cattle gives you less of a chance to make a margin. When prices are rising lads think they will keep rising so pay above the odds to stay in the market. Finally more cattle mean that possible low margin/ losses is amplified.

If I make 50 euro extra profit on 20 cattle this year but make 50 less on 25 next year the potential for my loss is greater.

Bass Reeves

Good loser wrote: »

Supply is down demand is up. Consequences.

Supply was down in February as well,prices were rising all over Europe. Consequences?????

Prices drop in Ireland

Imagine that I suppose it was just s coincidence that processor feedlots needed to be filled.

Jjameson

Abp half been taking half page ads since February reminding us of how they “pay on the day” as opposed the independent plants and Marts. The live mart trade is driving the demand here anyway. Northern/uk online buyer in Carnew every Saturday taking 200 odd cattle from the system combine with independent plants doing flat price deals including “out of spec” cattle seem to have increased throughout substantially..

Is there something Brexit related that’s helping both these causes to be thorn in the cartels side?

mr.stonewall

Jjameson wrote: »

Abp half been taking half page ads since February reminding us of how they “pay on the day” as opposed the independent plants and Marts. The live mart trade is driving the demand here anyway. Northern/uk online buyer in Carnew every Saturday taking 200 odd cattle from the system combine with independent plants doing flat price deals including “out of spec” cattle seem to have increased throughout substantially..

Is there something Brexit related that’s helping both these causes to be thorn in the cartels side?

Brexit and covid has interrupted the rules of the game that processors have been playing. Throw in the fact of less cattle and the amount of finished cattle going through the marts, they are flustered and can't plan their usual tricks.

Good loser

Jjameson wrote: »

Abp half been taking half page ads since February reminding us of how they “pay on the day” as opposed the independent plants and Marts. The live mart trade is driving the demand here anyway. Northern/uk online buyer in Carnew every Saturday taking 200 odd cattle from the system combine with independent plants doing flat price deals including “out of spec” cattle seem to have increased throughout substantially..

Is there something Brexit related that’s helping both these causes to be thorn in the cartels side?

Over the past year or so cattle prices in UK strengthened and strengthened so that the gap to Irish prices neared €1 per kg.
This gap was so large and noticeable UK buyers took action - so that demand in Ireland improved and is still doing so; resulting in higher prices here. Only so much meat can be leached into the UK market before the farmers there kick up a stink about imports ruining their trade.
Brexit has given a fillip to nationalist sentiment in England - possibly boosting demand for local produce viz imports.

jaymla627

mr.stonewall wrote: »

Brexit and covid has interrupted the rules of the game that processors have been playing. Throw in the fact of less cattle and the amount of finished cattle going through the marts, they are flustered and can't plan their usual tricks.

The price of meal has them in bother too, not even the part-time hobby lads who have off-farm incomes can justify mealing cattle, the winter finishers will surely not fill sheds this year unless they are offered contract prices to cover meal costs

Danzy

jaymla627 wrote: »

The price of meal has them in bother too, not even the part-time hobby lads who have off-farm incomes can justify mealing cattle, the winter finishers will surely not fill sheds this year unless they are offered contract prices to cover meal costs

Enough will fill them again.

With a lot of those lads it is habit and quite a few probably have deals with the factory.

leoch

do wee need to start a beef finishers anonymous page like the suckler page

Robson99

Danzy wrote: »

Enough will fill them again.

With a lot of those lads it is habit and quite a few probably have deals with the factory.

I wouldn't be so sure. Good contenintal Store cattle were purchased circa €2.30 a kg last back end. 40 cent a kg better in the factories now compared to winter months. Can see more lads buying them and finishing off grass during the summer months. Winter finishing is a mugs game. And factories have been laughing at us for the past few years at it

Bass Reeves

Good loser wrote: »

Over the past year or so cattle prices in UK strengthened and strengthened so that the gap to Irish prices neared €1 per kg.
This gap was so large and noticeable UK buyers took action - so that demand in Ireland improved and is still doing so; resulting in higher prices here. Only so much meat can be leached into the UK market before the farmers there kick up a stink about imports ruining their trade.
Brexit has given a fillip to nationalist sentiment in England - possibly boosting demand for local produce viz imports.

BS
The processors use Irish beef to force down the price of beef in the UK. That is what happened two years ago. The processors were hosting that they would get it down to 3/kg.

The hullabaloo has actually changed grading which has improved a bit. 3 years ago it was impossible to get a Friesian onto an O- not to mind an O=. Everything was being driven down to aP grade as processor's were packaging all the beef for the supermarkets so it was immaterial to them what an animal graded.

Bass Reeves

Robson99 wrote: »

I wouldn't be so sure. Good contenintal Store cattle were purchased circa €2.30 a kg last back end. 40 cent a kg better in the factories now compared to winter months. Can see more lads buying them and finishing off grass during the summer months. Winter finishing is a mugs game. And factories have been laughing at us for the past few years at it

Not only winter finishing. From now on I intend to try to have all cattle slaughtered by end of September. Impossible to get cattle , Friesians especially to finish off autumn grass. You wod have them on 5-6kgs and they still would not be fleshing out. Put them in on silage and ration is not the answer either.

It's will be costing 3 day to feed cattle inside in a shed, outside on grass and ration for the Autumn it will be costing 2/day neither is sustainable so I be aiming to hand everything by end of September.

It one thing getting wet and dragging ration to trough's through mud. Losing money at it as well is stupidity.
As my mother use to say ''fool me once shame on you...fool me twice shame on me''

Danzy

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Not only winter finishing. From now on I intend to try to have all cattle slaughtered by end of September. Impossible to get cattle , Friesians especially to finish off autumn grass. You wod have them on 5-6kgs and they still would not be fleshing out. Put them in on silage and ration is not the answer either.

It's will be costing 3 day to feed cattle inside in a shed, outside on grass and ration for the Autumn it will be costing 2/day neither is sustainable so I be aiming to hand everything by end of September.

It one thing getting wet and dragging ration to trough's through mud. Losing money at it as well is stupidity.
As my mother use to say ''fool me once shame on you...fool me twice shame on me''

Agree with the finishing in Sept.

Between them not coming as quickly after then, price drops, damage to fields and having to leave buying till late October, don't think it is worth it, others might find it different but it's not suited to my locality.

bogman_bass

jaymla627 wrote: »

The price of meal has them in bother too, not even the part-time hobby lads who have off-farm incomes can justify mealing cattle, the winter finishers will surely not fill sheds this year unless they are offered contract prices to cover meal costs

I’ve been hearing that for the past 20 years

trg

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Not only winter finishing. From now on I intend to try to have all cattle slaughtered by end of September. Impossible to get cattle , Friesians especially to finish off autumn grass. You wod have them on 5-6kgs and they still would not be fleshing out. Put them in on silage and ration is not the answer either.

It's will be costing 3 day to feed cattle inside in a shed, outside on grass and ration for the Autumn it will be costing 2/day neither is sustainable so I be aiming to hand everything by end of September.

It one thing getting wet and dragging ration to trough's through mud. Losing money at it as well is stupidity.
As my mother use to say ''fool me once shame on you...fool me twice shame on me''

What sort of stock would you finish by then?

Bass Reeves

trg wrote: »

What sort of stock would you finish by then?

Friesians, Hereford's, AA's virtually anything. Any weight gained after that is break even at best.

Good loser

Danzy wrote: »

Enough will fill them again.

With a lot of those lads it is habit and quite a few probably have deals with the factory.

When it comes to Sept/Oct/Nov the silage cost has already been incurred.
To retrieve that money guys go out and buy cattle.
Otherwise they would have to sell the silage out of the pit - which isn't easy especially at the start of Winter.
Need to empty the pits for next year's grass. A bit of a treadmill.

Good loser

Bass Reeves wrote: »

BS
The processors use Irish beef to force down the price of beef in the UK. That is what happened two years ago. The processors were hosting that they would get it down to 3/kg.

The hullabaloo has actually changed grading which has improved a bit. 3 years ago it was impossible to get a Friesian onto an O- not to mind an O=. Everything was being driven down to aP grade as processor's were packaging all the beef for the supermarkets so it was immaterial to them what an animal graded.

Conspiracy theory again. Mindless.

Jjameson

Good loser wrote: »

Conspiracy theory again. Mindless.

Precedence over the last 40 years would indicate that there is absolutely no conspiracy theory outlandish enough regarding the antics of Irish beef processing.
To dismiss a point of fact from a very good poster with such belligerent blindness is the real definition of “mindless”.

The 12cent + breed bonus for o- grade is fully verifiable since the aftermath of the protest.
Grading accuracy has improved considerably.
The effect of this outlined by Bass combined with live cattle going north and eastward across the watery divide has actually brought some competition between a cartel of processors (with identical quotes week on week still) is what’s keeping uk prices buoyant.

Because rules of basic economics are that it’s the cheapest beef that sets the bar for farmgate price not the most expensive.

wrangler

Jjameson wrote: »

Precedence over the last 40 years would indicate that there is absolutely no conspiracy theory outlandish enough regarding the antics of Irish beef processing.
To dismiss a point of fact from a very good poster with such belligerent blindness is the real definition of “mindless”.

The 20cent + breed bonus for o- grade is fully verifiable since the aftermath of the protest.
The effect of this outlined by Bass combined with live cattle going north and eastward across the watery divide has actually brought some competition between a cartel of processors (with identical quotes week on week still) is what’s keeping uk prices buoyant.

Because rules of basic economics are that it’s the cheapest beef that sets the bar for farmgate price not the most expensive.

It's business, farmers aren't unscrupulous enough to handle it.
Maybe the mindless conspiracy theories are right, maybe they're wrong but its childish to complain the way farmers do.
It's poor business practise to subsidise beef price from BPS and upsets the whole way that the market works. Any action that was taken by farmers didn't make a bit of difference to price, The balance of supply and demand has changed

Jjameson

wrangler wrote: »

It's business, farmers aren't unscrupulous enough to handle it.
Maybe the mindless conspiracy theories are right, maybe they're wrong but its childish to complain the way farmers do.
It's poor business practise to subsidise beef price from BPS and upsets the whole way that the market works. Any action that was taken by farmers didn't make a bit of difference to price, The balance of supply and demand has changed

The balance of supply yes. Demand remains largely consistent.
As does consumer price. So when you have processors and retailers profiteering when supply increases very marginally and no benefit for consumers who in turn pay farmers through their taxation even the corr brother would be hard preesed to make the truth any more “out there”!!!

Robson99

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Not only winter finishing. From now on I intend to try to have all cattle slaughtered by end of September. Impossible to get cattle , Friesians especially to finish off autumn grass. You wod have them on 5-6kgs and they still would not be fleshing out. Put them in on silage and ration is not the answer either.

It's will be costing 3 day to feed cattle inside in a shed, outside on grass and ration for the Autumn it will be costing 2/day neither is sustainable so I be aiming to hand everything by end of September.

It one thing getting wet and dragging ration to trough's through mud. Losing money at it as well is stupidity.
As my mother use to say ''fool me once shame on you...fool me twice shame on me''

Very true.
And a very good saying as well

Good loser

Jjameson wrote: »

The balance of supply yes. Demand remains largely consistent.
As does consumer price. So when you have processors and retailers profiteering when supply increases very marginally and no benefit for consumers who in turn pay farmers through their taxation even the corr brother would be hard preesed to make the truth any more “out there”!!!

It's basic economics that where supply and demand curves intersect the price is struck.
If demand is steady and supply falls prices rise and vice versa.
Surely you can see the simple fact that prices have risen by 50c per kilo in the last six months is down to scarcity.
Both the Irish price locally and the world price. And the UK price.

Nothing more complex than supply and demand. (Currency is a factor in both.)

wrangler

Good loser wrote: »

It's basic economics that where supply and demand curves intersect the price is struck.
If demand is steady and supply falls prices rise and vice versa.
Surely you can see the simple fact that prices have risen by 50c per kilo in the last six months is down to scarcity.
Both the Irish price locally and the world price. And the UK price.

Nothing more complex than supply and demand. (Currency is a factor in both.)

Such is the conspiracy theorists on here that if the cat had kittens the beef processors would be blamed.