Beef price tracker 2

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117816016#Comment_117816016

It was 4.10 here last week for ordinary mortals, it is still 4.10 next week. There is no stream if cattle into the factory. One local factory is on 3 days a week normally it's flat out this time of year. They managed to back some cattle up the week before last with that tactic. But cattle seemed to have dried up. There was only 73 lots of bullocks in Gortnalea yesterday evening for the last while it's been 130 ish lots. Very few finished cattle, they seem to have disappeared.Very little above 650 and no 750kg+ cattle. Lighter stock that were 500 kgs and over were.on fire. There was no big lots with 10-15 finished cattle that were there over the last 3-4 weeks.

Hershall

Was to kill a few bks next Tuesday they rang last Thursday night said bring them down in the morning 4.15. Still 4.15 next week and looking for them

GNWoodd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117816164#Comment_117816164

You are correct . The numbers aren’t there for the factories to pull prices . I have never seen the numbers of NI artics loading from West of Ireland marts as I have recently. That alone has to be a big help to the trade .

Murang

What cattle are they talking up north weanlings or finished cattle

GNWoodd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117816927#Comment_117816927

All finished . The ones I saw loafing in recent weeks were cows and heifers . No weanlings .

Good loser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117816957#Comment_117816957

So much for the cartel!

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117816375#Comment_117816375

For the last two weeks lads were under pressure to move cattle going over age....myself included as factories backed them up. I have noting going over age before 17th September and only 6 March born cattle in total left. Anything left is over 30 months or can wait until October. As I have said forwards stores are stupid money but all the heavy over 500kgs ones have dried up. I remember commenting about a months ago about the amount of 27-30 months store not fit to kill going through marts at the time. I think another 1-2 commented on it as well. In the last week factory fit cattle have disappeared from the marts and the forward 500kg+ store is stupid money as well. The flush of 2020 store is not starting to come out yet. Lads have grass and are not in a hurry to move he. If I had store's to sell I be carrying them to the mart now however I don't....but I intend to sit on my finished cattle, I cannot see the price pull continuing and they are putting on cheap weight at present. Most Mid march cattle are now gone and we have over 50K less to kill before year end or 3K/week. 2022 cattle will come on stream from November so most of the remaining reduction in troughput will be over the next 8-12 weeks.

Good loser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117817208#Comment_117817208

I know you don't have much regard for the Journal. But for anyone interested in the current and prospective states of play re beef - especially the Irish/UK balance - there is a superb article in Page 26 of this week's issue by Phelim O Neill.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117817291#Comment_117817291

Did not buy it this week generally don't buy it, so cannot read it.

mf240

It's the same old ding song every year. Cattle were scarce this week because lads were busy with the fine weather, it's easy hold cattle when weather is fine.

Once a wet week comes factories will drop the price and lads will run with them. Couple of heros will "hold tough" and take Less a few weeks later.

Fool me once and all that.

Dunedin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117818383#Comment_117818383

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117816164#Comment_117816164

Well that’s the reality. What do you expect farmers to do. Everyone will try and hold on as long as they can but as I’ve said before, when a wet week comes and cattle huddled under a ditch ploughing up the place then unless your Bass and not affected by the weather then your choices are limited.

one wet week here in the midlands, it quickly becomes a mud bath here for me. Especially bad as I’ve all finishing cattle on reseeded ground which takes even less punishment.

the weather is as big an enemy as Larry and his boys are for a lot of farmers

Albert Johnson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117816910#Comment_117816910

There's plenty of forward stores and finished cattle going North atm which is putting a floor under the trade for short keep stock of all colour's. However I'm told that the "Nomad" issue has reappeared of late with Southern born and Nothern slaughtered stock. If they start discounting these cattle in Northern factories then I can't see the live exports staying at the levels there at.

A few lad's have told me there buying no more Southern stock due to difficulties in getting them slaughtered in recent weeks. For years the main exports to the North were breeding stock as the Nomad issue left other cattle unviable. It's only in the last few years that beef cattle were exported in any great number's at least from the marts I frequent. If they tighten the net on IE imports then we're totally reliant on the cartel again.

Bass Reeves

Friend had an agent looking at cattle this evening. Agent said flush of castle that the factory got back up last two weeks ago are gone. Not only that but cattle are not exactly coming into him like 2+ weeks ago. If agents have to start searching for cattle factory's will struggle to pull prices.

While on one hand cattle seem to be killing well I wonder is the factory price hiding that carcases are a tad lighter than last year. Friend had a couple of extra cattle this year but he thinks hid DW will be back 10+kg/ head.

Mine is back but as I have posted I bought a lighter stores last year so I cannot judge whether stores are lighter or not.

Jb1989

3.90 quoted for r grade cows. Duleek

Base price

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821192#Comment_117821192

QA?

morphy87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821192#Comment_117821192

What were you been quoted for these last week?

Jb1989

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821269#Comment_117821269

I'm already QA, so can't say what non QA may be offered tbh.

Jb1989

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821274#Comment_117821274

Heard nothing about last week tbh, as only a few ready this week.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821192#Comment_117821192

3.90 for R grade cows, if it's true highly unlikely that we will see any drop in the base price again the end of the week. Actually it's hard to see how a base price of 4.1/ kg holds water with that. Often saw cows making as much as P grade bullocks. At that price they be tipping at O- bullocks that are underage and higher than overage ones

Jb1989

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821313#Comment_117821313

Friend has full load going, agent looked at cattle Friday and gave quote, lorry going tomorrow evening. I'm joining my few in with his full load.

morphy87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821426#Comment_117821426

What has your friend going? And what price was he quoted?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821595#Comment_117821595

His Friend has R grade cows, they have a load, 3.9/ kg. Price was quoted last Friday

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821796#Comment_117821796

No the cartel ain't gone Jam. And there is no point in making up prices and 5c is not worthwhile going to another factory 20-30 miles further away especially if Transport is a factor. Earlier this year a lad had heifers and got what seemed a great flat price quote from another factory. Transport was 22/ head or 7-8c/ kg on his 300 ish DW cattle. Often gave him a hand to drop them in locally and he will do the same for me if I have 10-12 going but usually it 4-6 so 2-3 loads in my 8X5 box

But neither am I going to throw cattle at the factory that are not going over age until October. While I do not see a significant increase for the small supplier over the next few weeks neither do I see a massive pull either. I just trickle them away in and see what happens.

Small suppliers are in a different game to some mid sized lads who have relationships with processor's and are turning cattle every 70-100 days. Weight pays to a certain extent if your costs are low. No point in flogging in a P+3- Friesian bullock killing 310kgs under 30 months if he will grow into a O= bullocks in 7-10 weeks. That was the choice I had 3+ weeks ago with some cattle.

As I said from earlier this year, it was a year to keep cattle moving and not let cattle that will make the QA go over age. Ya if the weather pisses rain in 10days time the ball will go a bit into the factories court. But cattle are scarce and if the weather holds any way decent for September we will not see a continuous pull in priced

morphy87

Bumped into an agent this morning, I don’t deal with him, he was telling me they are quoting bullocks 4.10 this week, he said he has no cattle to go this week,he said the cattle just ain’t there, he can’t see them dropping anymore but you never know with the factory’s but it’s hard to phantom this price drop with numbers tight

locha

4.15 steers base.

locha

That’s what the big boys are quoting for a load this week and what I’m getting. For lads getting less then a load away I don’t know.

epfff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117824329#Comment_117824329

Where?

I have load all in spec and under 380kgs and they are now kicked back to next Monday @5 cent less plus breed bonus.

I have tried 2 and going to my usual spot.

locha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117824799#Comment_117824799

To the big boys.. Kepak ABP Liffey. They are on 4.15 this week. They may not be giving it to all but it was there for me. I was pushing for 4.20 as I could send a double but it’s 4.15 on the grid.

memorystick

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117825034#Comment_117825034

What’s it flat for bullocks?

Bass Reeves

It will be interesting to see the kill figures publoished for week starting the 23/8. For all the talk that the price pull got the processors a flush of cattle it seems the kill for the week starting the 16/8 did not increase throughput. It seems that they may only have slaughtered cattle that were to go that week anyway. I think they tried to use any extra bokings to drop the price last week, but that now the flush has dissappeared...or maybe even worse for them the kill will wilt away.

I was was looking at slaughter numbers and I thaugh that the gap had closed on the shortage. However if the reports of 120K primes cattle less this year compared to 2020 are true there is still a 60K shortage at this stage this year. That is about 3-3.5K prime cattle a week from here to the year end. If I remember right there was no massive high slaughter numbers the end of last year. 34/35k was the highest. We could see slaughter numbers struggling to stay above 30K for a few weeks this autumn.

The factories seemed to have encouraged regular and contracted suppliers to try to close the gap with 2020 cattle but its hard to see any numbers of them comining on stream until November. Next few weeks will be interesting