Beef price tracker 2

Bass Reeves

memorystick wrote: »

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/report-shows-that-farmers-receive-80-of-revenue-from-beef-sales-mii/

More scutter

Ya it was reported before this came out that processor's were only giving limited transparency, citing market sensitive information. They only released information that suited them.


Processor's were claiming we were getting over 50% of the final retail price back at the time of the strike. GT did no figures on this just an attempt to cover up the processor's operations.

20% of the the final price would be 25% of beef prices so they are getting 300/head and n the average 1200 euro animal. On a slaughter of 2 million cattle that is 600 million euro. Probably 5th quarter was retailed at to it one buyer and not factored into the processor margin.

According to this a few days ago

https://www.farmersjournal.ie/beef-transparency-reports-crawl-towards-completion-607662

Processor's gave limited transparency
As well only one retailer had an issue with U16 month bull beef.


Beef farmers have to stop chasing numbers. It's virtually interesting that I saw a statement from an ICSA rep that over the last few years Teagasc spend too much time looking at Technical efficiency with no looking at profitability.Thisbgoes back to what I said on another thread about meal feeding and for a lot of it there is no margin is n it for the farmer

Jjameson

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Ya it was reported before this came out that processor's were only giving limited transparency, citing market sensitive information. They only released information that suited them.


Processor's were claiming we were getting over 50% of the final retail price back at the time of the strike. GT did no figures on this just an attempt to cover up the processor's operations.

20% of the the final price would be 25% of beef prices so they are getting 300/head and n the average 1200 euro animal. On a slaughter of 2 million cattle that is 600 million euro. Probably 5th quarter was retailed at to it one buyer and not factored into the processor margin.

According to this a few days ago

https://www.farmersjournal.ie/beef-transparency-reports-crawl-towards-completion-607662

Processor's gave limited transparency
As well only one retailer had an issue with U16 month bull beef.


Beef farmers have to stop chasing numbers. It's virtually interesting that I saw a statement from an ICSA rep that over the last few years Teagasc spend too much time looking at Technical efficiency with no looking at profitability.Thisbgoes back to what I said on another thread about meal feeding and for a lot of it there is no margin is n it for the farmer

The 2€ out of 10€ was a long way off though.
I think they honestly forgot to bone it out!
I was standing elbows on a bale pointing this anomaly out at the gate of slaney one evening and I was told I was wrong. But one man said “ if your right we are at nothing here”!

Bass Reeves

Jjameson wrote: »

The 2€ out of 10€ was a long way off though.
I think they honestly forgot to bone it out!
I was standing elbows on a bale pointing this anomaly out at the gate of slaney one evening and I was told I was wrong. But one man said “ if your right we are at nothing here”!

Ya I did the figures and I think I had it at about 35%. Of final retail price we were getting. It a bit like your own accounts you have to.know how to read them

Jjameson

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Ya I did the figures and I think I had it at about 35%. Of final retail price we were getting. It a bit like your own accounts you have to.know how to read them

That looks low even. €3.57 all in. A fair r grade carcass bones out 66 to 68%. Higher fat score bone out better but a higher percentage of trim. So take 3.57 divide by say 66x 100% is 5.40€.
(Allow bone and trim to be worth nothing)
It was getting close to half.
Cormac Healy claimed on radio one that we get two thirds of Irish retail price which was an outrageous lie but there was no solid work put in to give a farm rep a basis to correct him.

Bass Reeves

Jjameson wrote: »

That looks low even. €3.57 all in. A fair r grade carcass bones out 66 to 68%. Higher fat score bone out better but a higher percentage of trim. So take 3.57 divide by say 66x 100% is 5.40€.
(Allow bone and trim to be worth nothing)
It was getting close to half.
Cormac Healy claimed on radio one that we get two thirds of Irish retail price which was an outrageous lie but there was no solid work put in to give a farm rep a basis to correct him.

Cannot remember offhand. But two years ago cattle grading was a lot harder

wrangler

Jjameson wrote: »

That looks low even. €3.57 all in. A fair r grade carcass bones out 66 to 68%. Higher fat score bone out better but a higher percentage of trim. So take 3.57 divide by say 66x 100% is 5.40€.
(Allow bone and trim to be worth nothing)
It was getting close to half.
Cormac Healy claimed on radio one that we get two thirds of Irish retail price which was an outrageous lie but there was no solid work put in to give a farm rep a basis to correct him.

It's not a lie if he was quoting Grant Thorntons report.
He's got great support from Grant Thorntons figures now, we'll be hearing those now for a long time to come.

Jjameson

wrangler wrote: »

It's not a lie if he was quoting Grant Thorntons report.
He's got great support from Grant Thorntons figures now, we'll be hearing those now for a long time to come.

That was in 2019.

But support from grant Thornton’s isn’t really there if they are saying they were stonewalled and are mere merely relaying what MII told them?

Jjameson

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Cannot remember offhand. But two years ago cattle grading was a lot harder

Let’s assume grant Thornton have been told the truth.
A €1300 heifer @ 260€ Gross to processor.
Including 5th quarter?
Thoughts?

wrangler

Jjameson wrote: »

That was in 2019.

But support from grant Thornton’s isn’t really there if they are saying they were stonewalled and are mere merely relaying what MII told them?

They should've known it'd be a waste of time, begrudgers were happy enough to criticise IFA and jim Power for not being able to do it and now they've come up with the same result.
To be fooled twice is utter stupidity

Jjameson

wrangler wrote: »

They should've known it'd be a waste of time, begrudgers were happy enough to criticise IFA and jim Power for not being able to do it and now they've come up with the same result.
To be fooled twice is utter stupidity

You are ranting with your peculiar narrative.
same result yes because of a lack of investigative powers by both. Unfortunately we had to pay power for to tell us nothing we didn’t know though!

wrangler

Jjameson wrote: »

You are ranting with your peculiar narrative.
same result yes because of a lack of investigative powers by both. Unfortunately we had to pay power for to tell us nothing we didn’t know though!

And I said to plenty that that's the way it'd finish.
I wouldn't be surprised if it was illegal to think of investigating a business like that

Bass Reeves

Jjameson wrote: »

Let’s assume grant Thornton have been told the truth.
A €1300 heifer @ 260€ Gross to processor.
Including 5th quarter?
Thoughts?

Processor's say they are getting 20% of the price to retail not 20% of the carcasse value. On a 1300euro heifer he are getting 325 euro to put that carcasse through processing. Now I used to butcher heifers for the freezer and it was 220 was the charge admittedly 4-5 years ago and a smaller carcass. However you have to look at economy of scale.A small butcher might be lucky to handle 3-4 carcasses a week.

We are heading for a 2 million per year slaughter within 2-3 years. Assuming an average carcasse value of 1200 that 600 million that processor's will be there take out of the system that they admit to. Add in that the 5th quarter is controlled by one player in who may add another 100-150million euro to his gross

Jjameson

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Processor's say they are getting 20% of the price to retail not 20% of the carcasse value. On a 1300euro heifer he are getting 325 euro to put that carcasse through processing. Now I used to butcher heifers for the freezer and it was 220 was the charge admittedly 4-5 years ago and a smaller carcass. However you have to look at economy of scale.A small butcher might be lucky to handle 3-4 carcasses a week.

We are heading for a 2 million per year slaughter within 2-3 years. Assuming an average carcasse value of 1200 that 600 million that processor's will be there take out of the system that they admit to. Add in that the 5th quarter is controlled by one player in who may add another 100-150million euro to his gross

Define “price to retail”?
taking 1300 of the example as 80% of it correct!
Duh me!
Butchers work roughly on the basis of 1€ kg deadweight for freezer or box sale beef. But have to deliver and pay to dispose of offal that large processors actually profit on.

But these are all gross figures of course.

Water John

Doesn't matter to the farmer the divvy between the processor and the retailer. Down fall down that rabbit hole.
Do we look at the BB heifer again:
BB Heifer

fillet.............5kg
sirloin........14.2kg
rump.........12.6kg
fore rib......15.3kg
brisket.......17.9kg
chuck........32.5kg
topside......22.2kg
silverside..30.9kg
braising......8.9kg
stewing.....20.8kg
mince........51.7kg
...............232kg


Priced out the farmer gets just over €5/kg. Anyone want to price the cuts?

Water John

So GT admit they couldn't do the job:
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/grant-thornton-hits-obstacles-in-determining-beef-market-value/

MII ran out early and sold the media another porkie.

Bass Reeves

Jjameson wrote: »

Define “price to retail”?
taking 1300 of the example as 80% of it correct!
Duh me!
Butchers work roughly on the basis of 1€ kg deadweight for freezer or box sale beef. But have to deliver and pay to dispose of offal that large processors actually profit on.

But these are all gross figures of course.

This is the price that the processor's are admitting to receiving from retail( supermarkets restaurants catering etc).

1300 is 80% of the price received according MII
That 80% of the price of processor's recieve so the other 20% is 25% of that or 325 euro.

When you add in scale and s large portion is sold in bulk or the amount that is machine processed such as the McDonald's contract for burgers. As well you have off book sales. We for instance some processor's have UK companies that take the beef and retail it. I imagine that these deal with specialist contracts such as to meat going into Hospital, Schools or prisons.

But just taking the raw figure's did we have an average kill of 34k/weeks last year???. That 1.768 million cattle. Assuming an average of 1200 accross heifers, bulls bullocks, cows etc I think that would be a low ball figure. At 300/ head that is 540 million euro.

And that is what they are willing to admit to.

Danzy

wrangler wrote: »

They should've known it'd be a waste of time, begrudgers were happy enough to criticise IFA and jim Power for not being able to do it and now they've come up with the same result.
To be fooled twice is utter stupidity

It's not all about the IFA.

Bass Reeves

Danzy wrote: »

It's not all about the IFA.

But sure we alway have to get back to that and about begrudgery

kk.man

Danzy wrote: »

It's not all about the IFA.

Correct. Any decent analysis or analytical firm would never produce figures that are screwed because of poor data. If their reports were scrutinised after they would never be employed again. That's why Jim Power and Grant T can't come to the conclusions we are asking of them.

The real cloak and dagger stuff that does the Mll no good is the uniformity of price across the 26 counties of Ireland for so many different factories and like we had a few weeks back the uniform collapse of same. I am no Einstein but something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

lalababa

Water John wrote: »

Doesn't matter to the farmer the divvy between the processor and the retailer. Down fall down that rabbit hole.
Do we look at the BB heifer again:
BB Heifer

fillet.............5kg
sirloin........14.2kg
rump.........12.6kg
fore rib......15.3kg
brisket.......17.9kg
chuck........32.5kg
topside......22.2kg
silverside..30.9kg
braising......8.9kg
stewing.....20.8kg
mince........51.7kg
...............232kg


Priced out the farmer gets just over €5/kg. Anyone want to price the cuts?

Really need a butcher to price the cuts,
Fillet......30
Sirloin....15
Rump.....10?
Fore rib...25?
Brisket....20?
Chuck.....18?
Topside..20?
Silverside...10
Braising.....10
Stewing.....10
Mince.......7
Total circa...3200??
....13.70/kg

Good loser

kk.man wrote: »

Correct. Any decent analysis or analytical firm would never produce figures that are screwed because of poor data. If their reports were scrutinised after they would never be employed again. That's why Jim Power and Grant T can't come to the conclusions we are asking of them.

The real cloak and dagger stuff that does the Mll no good is the uniformity of price across the 26 counties of Ireland for so many different factories and like we had a few weeks back the uniform collapse of same. I am no Einstein but something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

On and on ad infinitum the conspiracy theories multiply and feed one another.
Remember the one about Simon Coveney being married to Goodman's niece and hence the Govt was in cahoots with the factory owners. Such rubbish!
When that's debunked there are plenty more to replenish the stock.
Conspiracy theories are the signs of weak minds - consider Mr Trump and 40 million Americans.
Or consider our very own sheep industry. 6 factories quoted in the IFJ including the big 2 (or 3) in the beef game. Last weeks price increased by another 20c to 30c per kg on the previous week to record highs of €7 per kg.
How do the theorists explain these numbers?
Did the factories conspire (all together) to increase prices to record levels? To give more money to their suppliers - because they needed it, because they deserved it, because they liked them that bit more.

Boys and girls morality doesn't come into it.
But market forces do.

lalababa

Why are mutton prices going through the roof? Is it Brexit? Yet beef is still at or below cost of production.
??

White Clover

Good loser wrote: »

On and on ad infinitum the conspiracy theories multiply and feed one another.
Remember the one about Simon Coveney being married to Goodman's niece and hence the Govt was in cahoots with the factory owners. Such rubbish!
When that's debunked there are plenty more to replenish the stock.
Conspiracy theories are the signs of weak minds - consider Mr Trump and 40 million Americans.
Or consider our very own sheep industry. 6 factories quoted in the IFJ including the big 2 (or 3) in the beef game. Last weeks price increased by another 20c to 30c per kg on the previous week to record highs of €7 per kg.
How do the theorists explain these numbers?
Did the factories conspire (all together) to increase prices to record levels? To give more money to their suppliers - because they needed it, because they deserved it, because they liked them that bit more.

Boys and girls morality doesn't come into it.
But market forces do.

The factories don't have feedlots of lambs themselves, yet. What it tells is how they have used British lamb to beat down prices in years gone by. They can't get them this year, did you notice that?
A bit like the way if they were short 20 cattle for tomorrow's kill, they'd cancel my 10 cattle with the poor mouth of no demand and offer 5c less for next week, and then land on a double of 30 from one of their own feedlots.

kk.man

Good loser wrote: »

On and on ad infinitum the conspiracy theories multiply and feed one another.
Remember the one about Simon Coveney being married to Goodman's niece and hence the Govt was in cahoots with the factory owners. Such rubbish!
When that's debunked there are plenty more to replenish the stock.
Conspiracy theories are the signs of weak minds - consider Mr Trump and 40 million Americans.
Or consider our very own sheep industry. 6 factories quoted in the IFJ including the big 2 (or 3) in the beef game. Last weeks price increased by another 20c to 30c per kg on the previous week to record highs of €7 per kg.
How do the theorists explain these numbers?
Did the factories conspire (all together) to increase prices to record levels? To give more money to their suppliers - because they needed it, because they deserved it, because they liked them that bit more.

Boys and girls morality doesn't come into it.
But market forces do.

I never bought into the Simon Coveney allegation and even if it was true I doubt it was having any bearing on the beef price. I also don't do Trump or any nacarist for that matter.

Market forces do out weigh the processors when there is a market force ie demand is very strong. We are a small country at the edge of the EU with 5 mil ppl killing 5 mill cattle at the mercy of export markets. These cattle kills are controled by 3 big processors and the price they pay for cattle is uniform among themselves and there smaller competitors bar 5c here or there. Sheep are very scarse all over Europe no aussies or kiwis fighting for shelf space. No imports from the UK to our factories because of a little issue called Brexit.

In conclusion we are producing too much cattle but our main markets we supply are paying way more to their domestic suppliers than us. Two hundred euro is very wrong. If that was to translate to shelf price the domestic product would be displaced within days and the farmer suppliers would see a collapse in price.

That's not conspiracy theory, it's fact.

Jjameson

Good loser wrote: »

On and on ad infinitum the conspiracy theories multiply and feed one another.
Remember the one about Simon Coveney being married to Goodman's niece and hence the Govt was in cahoots with the factory owners. Such rubbish!
When that's debunked there are plenty more to replenish the stock.
Conspiracy theories are the signs of weak minds - consider Mr Trump and 40 million Americans.
Or consider our very own sheep industry. 6 factories quoted in the IFJ including the big 2 (or 3) in the beef game. Last weeks price increased by another 20c to 30c per kg on the previous week to record highs of €7 per kg.
How do the theorists explain these numbers?
Did the factories conspire (all together) to increase prices to record levels? To give more money to their suppliers - because they needed it, because they deserved it, because they liked them that bit more.

Boys and girls morality doesn't come into it.
But market forces do.

That aul beef tribunal was like a crowd of goms looking to get into area 41 on a air balloon made of Tayto bags sure. Larry j Goodman having friends of influence. Madness..

Market forces, Brexit had beef heading for 3.00 a kg. But strangely it’s closer to €4 now that we are in the Brexit.

Simple minds indeed.

White Clover

lalababa wrote: »

Why are mutton prices going through the roof? Is it Brexit? Yet beef is still at or below cost of production.
??

At this point in time, the factories don't control the supply of lamb. They don't have feedlots and the loss of British lamb is forcing them to pay. Its the market working, ie supply and demand.

With beef, the factories have control of supply through their own feedlots and contracted farmers that they have bankrupted previously are feeding for them for a wage. It is market control and manipulation.

charolais0153

White Clover wrote: »

With beef, the factories have control of supply through their own feedlots and contracted farmers that they have bankrupted previously are feeding for them for a wage. It is market control and manipulation.

How many on this forum have got out of finishing cattle ? Do the factory's control bass reeves jjameson or kkman or yourself, simple answer is no , they own a small proportion of the kill and the same people supply the rest . Too much supply .

Good loser

White Clover wrote: »

The factories don't have feedlots of lambs themselves, yet. What it tells is how they have used British lamb to beat down prices in years gone by. They can't get them this year, did you notice that?
A bit like the way if they were short 20 cattle for tomorrow's kill, they'd cancel my 10 cattle with the poor mouth of no demand and offer 5c less for next week, and then land on a double of 30 from one of their own feedlots.

Wasn't importing lambs from UK market forces working through.
Just as pig farmers send many pigs north every week. Suits both parties - that's how a market works.
Your example of a trading transaction is irrelevant. Every load of cattle has a story attached. Remember buying stock for feedlots supports/increases the price of stores.
Just think how the calf market works. Same difference to beef market.

Bass Reeves

For the last twenty years we were fed a tale. The story was that a kill that was equal all year long would lead to higher paying markets and that farmers would benefit from this. As well we were told that consolidation if the industry would also see benefits passed on to farmers. When dairy expansion happened the processor's told everyone that they could handle a kill of 40k cattle/week.

We are now left with a beef price that is a 50-70c/kg below production for winter beef

Danzy

The Irish economy and society would be better off if the beef industry here had collapsed.

The damage to the wider economy, the criminality and corruption brought into politics here, cost much more than the industry is worth.