Lost Werewolf - GAME THREAD

Nigel WW

Fiona WW wrote: »

Nothing to rule out further wolves. We will know for sure when we catch 2 more.

We missed a lynch last night, in hindsight I look at it as a villager saved as I know believe Angus to be village.

So how do you think the mechanics of it worked? Just a random island move on the first lynch to sow confusion? Or was it caused by something/someone?

Conor WW

Fiona WW wrote: »

Nothing to rule out further wolves. We will know for sure when we catch 2 more.

We missed a lynch last night, in hindsight I look at it as a villager saved as I know believe Angus to be village.

Based on interactions i think its highly unlikely that you two are on the same team if you are both wolves. Same with you and Orla. I dont believe you could sustain that level of interactions throughout the game so far unless it was natural. Someone would slip somewhere along the way.

Having said that, im leaning wolf on Angus. His posts leading up to the lynch were a bit suspect. He seemed to know what was coming with the cancelled lynch too. He has a spread of interactions as well - nothing definitive but he has himself covered. That will be telling when we see more wolf flips.

If Angus does flip good though, your tease (which, yes, im a little sore about given i didnt spot it before doing analysis this morning ) isnt a good look. Its also not great you have changed your mind on Angus. By my reading you were all over him yesterday - up until the cancelled lynch.

Conor WW

Oisin had a couple of posts this morning that seemed suspect to me as well. Big upturn in interactions from him since last night as well. Will go dig the posts out.

Oisin WW

@ connor. Would you be including nominations for inputting the numbers as an interaction?

Nigel WW

Here's my take on it to date, apologies if I've missed anyone:

Frank: village lean due to his interactions with Senan where Senan appeared to put him as his top wolf pick. Negative points for his early morning defence of Mary where he mentions having done an ISO but doesn't actually point to anything specific to contradict Isla's post that Mary has posted mainly fluff.

Orla - village lean also as she was included in Senan's posts and was getting a good bit of heat from him

Angus - slight wolf lean but not as convinced that he's a wolf as some others but Senan gave him a mention without going too hard on him with makes him a possible team mate

Emily - neutral as she was also mentioned by Senan without getting too much heat from him

Phil- village lean largely based on his vote for Henry which was copied by Senan

Patrick/Derry - neutral. Their interaction yesterday with the "looking for Kate" chat appeared tasky. I get a village feel from both of them but a team task wouldn't tally with that

Fiona - was dying to get her go at inputting the numbers, first with the rota and then going on a solo. I thought her fake peek created more confusion around Angus than anything. Village lean on the basis that she's TWTBAW

Abigail - Neutral. I thought her split voting was strange although I see the logic to some extent. On the other hand, if she's a wolf it was a nice way of lynching Angus and having her vote for tonight already lined up.

Gertie - slight wolf lean. Not much posting yesterday apart from two posts where she claimed she was going to read back but never returned with anything. Both old Gertie and new Gertie are suspicious of Emily & Fiona which is interesting and makes me less suspicious of her.

Conor - village lean, I liked his work earlier on analysing posts, seems like what a villager would do.

Vernon - village lean, I liked his ISO on Mary

Mary - wolf lean based largely on Vernon's ISO. Isla also picked up something similar about Mary

Oisin - village lean, posted this at 1433 yesterday "Senan: absoluet band of wolf off his one and only post so far. But it is only one post"

Wendy - neutral. posted at 1933 about being suss of Fiona for wanting to be "village leader" with the rota but seemed to be subsequently happy enough for her & Fiona to input the numbers; dropped off at 10pm (she had mentioned this tbf) without really bottoming out on who was going to input. Most of her posts seem fluffy but maybe that's to be expected on the first day.

Henry - start posting FFS

Barbara - missed the vote and replaced. 3 posts so far

In summary: Mary, Gertie and AN Other

Angus WW

Fiona WW wrote: »

You still think Orla is a wolf?

Yes, 100%. Along with Oisin and Emily. I’m 50/50 on you.

Nigel WW

No further nominations for the numbers so will we just go with Patrick & Frank then?

Oisin WW

Angus WW wrote: »

Yes, 100%. Along with Oisin and Emily. I’m 50/50 on you.

So there might be 4 more wolves?

Fiona WW

Conor WW wrote: »

Based on interactions i think its highly unlikely that you two are on the same team if you are both wolves. Same with you and Orla. I dont believe you could sustain that level of interactions throughout the game so far unless it was natural. Someone would slip somewhere along the way.

Having said that, im leaning wolf on Angus. His posts leading up to the lynch were a bit suspect. He seemed to know what was coming with the cancelled lynch too. He has a spread of interactions as well - nothing definitive but he has himself covered. That will be telling when we see more wolf flips.

If Angus does flip good though, your tease (which, yes, im a little sore about given i didnt spot it before doing analysis this morning ) isnt a good look. Its also not great you have changed your mind on Angus. By my reading you were all over him yesterday - up until the cancelled lynch.

What do you make of his reaction to the fake peek?

I agree his demeanor was relaxed coming up to lynch, so its likely he knew the island was going to move enabling him to avoid the lynch. But we can not say for sure.

I feel his reaction to my peek was legit. I was hoping to bluff an "you got me" reveal out of him. It didnt work. But I feel I got an honest reaction from it.

Thats my read of it. If he flips good, Im happy to be looked at.

Conor WW

Oisin WW wrote: »

Angus you dodged a lynch somehow.

All eyes will clearly be on you yet you peddle this rubbish.

The only way I could convince myself that you are not a wolf is by thinking there is no way a wolf would be so naive

Knowing wolf theatre? Pushing Angus lynch - again this is very interesting one way or another depending on how Angus flips.

Oisin WW wrote: »

Nigel I like the sound of that plan. Put me down if you like

Trying to get in on the numbers action.

Oisin WW wrote: »

How would people feel about holding off on the second input until after 4/5?

Just to see if the Black Cloud has anything to do with that?

Trying to influence numbers action.

Oisin WW wrote: »

Yeah Steve was Sunday afternoon.

No idea about the cloud other than it has been responsible for the death of two NRVs

Helpful villager post.

Oisin WW wrote: »

Exactly thats what I'm saying. I didn't get a wolf vibe off her but definitely didnt get a powered goodie vibe either.



Happy to jump on Angus' wagon.

Also saying that Gerty and Babs need to be contended with tomorrow (today) despite her agreeing with Orla that there wouldn't be multiple really low posting wolves



This jumped out at me as well. Turns out it was a geniune mistake by the looks of things but odd for a roled goodie to do that

Joining a wagon, putting focus on Isla posts, not nailing colours to mast beyond Angus...suppose thats fair enough in the context.

Oisin WW wrote: »

I was already looking at her posts pre munch and I was just giving my take on it.

Im not trying to find anything now

Defensive post.

Oisin WW wrote: »

Thats a good spot Paddy.

Would depend on whether it was a day or night power wouldnt it? That post was made on D1 yeah?

Helpful villager post

Oisin WW wrote: »

Missed that.

So she wouldn't have had a guess at the time she said Orla and Fiona appeared to be on the same team.

Owning up to mistake fair enough.

Oisin WW wrote: »

Yeah suppose so but in general powers wouldn't be available on N0 would they?

Although this game is nuts and the island has already been moved so I suppose its not the wildest thought

Power discussion - bit fluffy.

TBH, the above doesnt damn Oisin but its not great either. And as much as im grateful for the help, him focusing on the spreadsheet adds to the 'helpful villager vibe'. Ill keep my eyes on Oisin for now. Slightest of wolf leans.

Conor WW

Oisin WW wrote: »

@ connor. Would you be including nominations for inputting the numbers as an interaction?

If you were to say to Fiona that you nominate me, it would be an interaction between you and Fiona.

Fiona WW

Angus WW wrote: »

Yes, 100%. Along with Oisin and Emily. I’m 50/50 on you.

Ill accept that.

Why Emily and Oisin ?

Any play in the last 12 hours to suggest your right about Orla?

What makes you so sure shes a wolf?

Has she done anything to make you feel your unsure about her being a wolf?

Conor WW

Fiona WW wrote: »

What do you make of his reaction to the fake peek?

I agree his demeanor was relaxed coming up to lynch, so its likely he knew the island was going to move enabling him to avoid the lynch. But we can not say for sure.

I feel his reaction to my peek was legit. I was hoping to bluff an "you got me" reveal out of him. It didnt work. But I feel I got an honest reaction from it.

Thats my read of it. If he flips good, Im happy to be looked at.

Ill read back now i have 15 mins before lunch

Fiona WW

Conor WW wrote: »

Ill read back now i have 15 mins before lunch

By all means make your own mind up, I could be wrong. Emily seems to think hes a wolf based off his reaction.

Conor WW

Angus WW wrote: »

+1. Lets get this sorted once and for all.

So this is when Fiona was asking who to peek - if he is a villager why is he wasting a peek!! He should be begging you to try find who he thinks is a wolf!!

Angus WW wrote: »

Eh... can you ask nerco to double check that please.

Either a mistake has been made or you’re making an unusual play. You have said a few times you’ve nothing to lose, so is it possible you don’t care that your lie will be exposed?

Fair play, you need big balls to make a play like that.

So spreading blame here to mods or you. Its basically the only move he can make if he is a wolf. Fair enough if he is village those are the two options. Wouldnt give me an indication either way tbh.

Angus WW wrote: »

You’re Even more crazy than Orla!

See this is the interesting one when you come clean - he shifts the focus onto your other focus, Orla (seriously the three of ye are an interactions love triangle); which is a defensive move. He doesnt say 'oh fair enough' or 'WTF why would you do that', he shifts things onto Orla (and you) being crazy.

Conor WW

If its not clear form that, im leaning wolf on Angus

Frank WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

No further nominations for the numbers so will we just go with Patrick & Frank then?

Only a few more minutes to caught up, if this is still the situation, i'll post the numbers

Nigel WW

Frank WW wrote: »

Only a few more minutes to caught up, if this is still the situation, i'll post the numbers

Yes, I don't think anyone has said different so go for it

Frank WW

Right so, posting them now.

Frank WW

and done.

Fiona WW

Conor WW wrote: »

So this is when Fiona was asking who to peek - if he is a villager why is he wasting a peek!! He should be begging you to try find who he thinks is a wolf!!



So spreading blame here to mods or you. Its basically the only move he can make if he is a wolf. Fair enough if he is village those are the two options. Wouldnt give me an indication either way tbh.



See this is the interesting one when you come clean - he shifts the focus onto your other focus, Orla (seriously the three of ye are an interactions love triangle); which is a defensive move. He doesnt say 'oh fair enough' or 'WTF why would you do that', he shifts things onto Orla (and you) being crazy.

Conor WW wrote: »

If its not clear form that, im leaning wolf on Angus

Well I cant fault anything you've said, and I can totally accept this assessment.

That said, and Im not trying to argue his innocence just the way I saw it, I saw things differently.

While yes he was potentially wasting a peek if he was good, and not saying so isnt great, Id argue he was thinking selfishly here.

He was already public enemy no. 1, so hes thinking "Im good, peek away and Ill show you".

I take your point about calling me crazy though, when in fact Id be calling me a liar and blaming the mods. But he could just be angry about being incorrectly accused of being a wolf.

That said Im not so sure hes leaning good after your take.

Fiona WW

Frank WW wrote: »

and done.

Keep us in the loop with how you fared. Penalty or Prize.

Frank WW

Fiona WW wrote: »

Keep us in the loop with how you fared. Penalty or Prize.

will do, still no pm here yet

Conor WW

If there are 3 wolves to 20 villagers in this game, finding a wolf is the same as clearing 6 villagers.

If there are 4 wolves, its 5 villagers.

If there are 5 wolves, its 4 villagers.

So if we do get peeks, we should be using them for wolf hunting, not village clearing, imo.

If during the course of wolf hunting we clear a villager then happy days of course. And from our perspective that's why it would have been right to peek Angus (if the peek was legit). But from his POV, it would be a giant waste. Same as if someone said to peek me - i know its a giant waste of a peek as im a villager. Fair enough if he was just annoyed, but again, that taps into you starting out as believing him and his reaction was genuine.

Oisin WW

Up to date with the spreadsheet. Will keep it updated for the next couple of hours and then send it back in here.

If anyone wants it at any stage then just ask

Fiona WW

Conor WW wrote: »

If there are 3 wolves to 20 villagers in this game, finding a wolf is the same as clearing 6 villagers.

If there are 4 wolves, its 5 villagers.

If there are 5 wolves, its 4 villagers.

So if we do get peeks, we should be using them for wolf hunting, not village clearing, imo.

If during the course of wolf hunting we clear a villager then happy days of course. And from our perspective that's why it would have been right to peek Angus (if the peek was legit). But from his POV, it would be a giant waste. Same as if someone said to peek me - i know its a giant waste of a peek as im a villager. Fair enough if he was just annoyed, but again, that taps into you starting out as believing him and his reaction was genuine.

Like I can see a case for his reaction being a dodgy one.

Im unsure as to what I believe about his reaction now, but I cant say for sure hes evil.

Thing is, not everyone thinks like you and his reaction to the peek if hes good, can be different to your reaction to a peek if your good.

Fiona WW

Conor, whats your thoughts on Gerty. Shes my top pick thus far today?

Oisin WW

Conor WW wrote: »

TBH, the above doesnt damn Oisin but its not great either. And as much as im grateful for the help, him focusing on the spreadsheet adds to the 'helpful villager vibe'. Ill keep my eyes on Oisin for now. Slightest of wolf leans.

When you say that I'm trying to "get in" on the numbers game I also put my name forward yesterday.

I agree that me helping out with the spreadsheet would be exactly want a friendly wolf would do.

However let me ask you this. As Nigel pointed out in his read list, would I really call out Senan on D1 for having "an absolute bang of wolf off his only post"?

That would seem crazy as a tactic

Frank WW

I have won a bodyguard protect, which can be used at anytime.

Fiona WW

Frank WW wrote: »

I have won a bodyguard protect, which can be used at anytime.

So you can protect anyone ? Yeah?