Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict

Gatling

suicide_circus wrote: »

Woopsies!

Like there strangers to the shooting down party

Richard Hillman

Peace Deal Agreed
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1325951880762068992?s=19

Say what you want about him, Vladimir Putin gets **** done. 5-6 hours after the helicopter gets shot down, Vlad gets on the blower, tells them you're annoying me now and that's the end of it.

Gatling

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Peace Deal Agreed
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1325951880762068992?s=19

Not the first peace deal they agreed and broken .

Give it a few days and it's back to Azerbaijan pushing forward

riffmongous

Gatling wrote: »

Not the first peace deal they agreed and broken .

Give it a few days and it's back to Azerbaijan pushing forward

The presence of Russian troops on the ground will make a difference though, but yeah wherever the Russians aren't (and there's only going to be around 1000 of them) expect to see more offensives once the Azeris are ready

Tea drinker

I think Azerbaijan / Turkey got the victory they wanted, I think the dust will settle for a few years before more land needs to be liberated from Armenian oppression ;-)

suicide_circus

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Peace Deal Agreed
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1325951880762068992?s=19

Say what you want about him, Vladimir Putin gets **** done. 5-6 hours after the helicopter gets shot down, Vlad gets on the blower, tells them you're annoying me now and that's the end of it.

On the blower? You make him sound like Arthur Daly

Gatling

riffmongous wrote: »

The presence of Russian troops on the ground will make a difference though, but yeah wherever the Russians aren't (and there's only going to be around 1000 of them) expect to see more offensives once the Azeris are ready

Erdokan is putting peacekeepers in too ,get the feeling Russia won't be getting everything their way though , this could well spread to else where if other countries decide it push back against a weakening putin

donaghs

Gatling wrote: »

Erdokan is putting peacekeepers in too ,get the feeling Russia won't be getting everything their way though , this could well spread to else where if other countries decide it push back against a weakening putin

If the peace deal sticks, it will be good for the ordinary civilians. But its a cruel historical twist to have Turkish "peacekeepers" for what remains of Armenia and Armenians in the region.

Gatling

donaghs wrote: »

If the peace deal sticks, it will be good for the ordinary civilians. But its a cruel historical twist to have Turkish "peacekeepers" for what remains of Armenian and Armenians in the region.

I know, it's very contentious could lead to more trouble later on , hopefully it does stick I personally can't see it sticking for more than a week or two , Armenia may decide because russia is partially involved they might launch attacks thinking Azerbaijan are afraid of the russians and vice versa with the turks

riffmongous

Yeah I read about the Turkish troops supposed to be going in to but that wasn't confirmed at the point, and I'd be surprised if it actually gets accepted by the Armenians.. their gov is already on shaky ground for accepting the peace treaty, Turkish troops getting involved will be seen as a step too far by the general populace I'd say (and rightly so)

Markcheese

riffmongous wrote: »

Yeah I read about the Turkish troops supposed to be going in to but that wasn't confirmed at the point, and I'd be surprised if it actually gets accepted by the Armenians.. their gov is already on shaky ground for accepting the peace treaty, Turkish troops getting involved will be seen as a step too far by the general populace I'd say (and rightly so)

Yeah ,but the armenian government needs the cease-fire.. if they keep going they risk loosing all of ngorno-karabach ..
And the Azeries risk the Russians helping the armenians , their turkish advantage could evaporate pretty quick.. and then they'd be left with egg on their face ..
Of course russia doesn't really want to risk being in a proxy war with turkey ...
And turkey would struggle to get men and equipment to azerbaijan without opening another front ,with Armenia proper ... And that means full on war with Russia ..
And the iranians are tetchy too ...

Gatling

Markcheese wrote: »

Yeah ,but the armenian government needs the cease-fire.. if they keep going they risk loosing all of ngorno-karabach ..
And the Azeries risk the Russians helping the armenians , their turkish advantage could evaporate pretty quick.. and then they'd be left with egg on their face ..
Of course russia doesn't really want to risk being in a proxy war with turkey ...
And turkey would struggle to get men and equipment to azerbaijan without opening another front ,with Armenia proper ... And that means full on war with Russia ..
And the iranians are tetchy too ...

Apparently russia declined a plea for Military assistance weeks ago from Armenia ,so much for the defence pact they have ,
Can Turkey get men and equipment to Azerbaijan yes they could go through Georgia by road or sea , which could bring well and truly stir the pot , Georgia is no friend of Putin's which could bring more instability , russia doesn't fight wars they take limited actions such as air campaigns and proxy interventions , erdokan has proven he's not afraid to get into russian faces and he's a powerful military with modern weapons behind him ,this doesn't suit Russia at all ,
If you look at Ukraine as an example the fighting in Eastern Ukraine against rag tag militia's and poor equipped military russia lost about 10,000 men compare that to say US loses in Iran and Afghanistan over 10 + years ,put the russians against Azerbaijan , turkey and possibly one or two other countries getting involved it certainly wouldn't be a walk over for Russia ,there would be massive loses on both sides and yet they gain nothing ,
Now trump is gone Iran will be playing nice guys again to get biden and co to lift sanctions

Markcheese

I meant more in a "they all have something to loose "
The Azeries have their first major victory since this whole mess started in the 90s , but if the Russians started re supplying the armenians and sending in "specialists" ,they could loose the lot ..
The armenians are on the brink of loosing karabach, so desperately need a cease fire
the Russians don't want to risk drawing the Turks into a major conflict ,
Actually not sure what turkey has to loose ,

Gatling

Markcheese wrote: »

I meant more in a "they all have something to loose "
The Azeries have their first major victory since this whole mess started in the 90s , but if the Russians started re supplying the armenians and sending in "specialists" ,they could loose the lot ..
The armenians are on the brink of loosing karabach, so desperately need a cease fire
the Russians don't want to risk drawing the Turks into a major conflict ,
Actually not sure what turkey has to loose ,

It's one of them that there is no real winners and something that is relatively localised could grow and spread across several countries ,
And the two biggest players could equally be considered rouge states who don't to the normal

Markcheese

BBC News - Viewpoint: Russia and Turkey - unlikely victors of Karabakh conflict
https://www.bbc.co.uk/new
s/world-europe-54903869

The beebs take on it ..

igCorcaigh

Well, if Russia and Turkey can fix something that the Minsk cohort have failed to do for years, that'll be some doing!

Montage of Feck

donaghs wrote: »

If the peace deal sticks, it will be good for the ordinary civilians. But its a cruel historical twist to have Turkish "peacekeepers" for what remains of Armenia and Armenians in the region.

Turkish "peacekeepers".

biko

https://twitter.com/MatthewJWelty/status/1326986666842730497?s=20

Gatling

biko wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MatthewJWelty/status/1326986666842730497?s=20

It's not going to end there ,Many of those people will want what's there's back , guarantee a few months down the lines and Armenians militia's will kick off pouring petrol back on to the fire

igCorcaigh

biko wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MatthewJWelty/status/1326986666842730497?s=20

Cycles of ethnic cleansing. Very sad for all people of the region.

Jimbob1977

Fleeing Armenians burnt their own houses down.

They couldn't bear Azeris living in them.

The Armenians have a sad history

Fritzbox

Montage of Feck wrote: »

Turkish "peacekeepers".

No worse than the idea of Russian "peacekeepers" in this part of the world I guess.

Jimbob1977

Turkish peacekeepers in the Armenian parts of Nagorno Karabakh must break Armenian hearts.

It's like having to accept your oldest and most hated enemy into your own home..... and you can only grin and bear it.

Gatling

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Turkish peacekeepers in the Armenian parts of Nagorno Karabakh must break Armenian hearts.

It's like having to accept your oldest and most hated enemy into your own home..... and you can only grin and bear it.

I don't think we've heard the last of this ,
The Armenians will seek either justice or revenge this will get more bloody and putin will have no control over it

donaghs

Fritzbox wrote: »

No worse than the idea of Russian "peacekeepers" in this part of the world I guess.

Explain? Did the Russian state attempt to wipe out either nation in this war?

The closest thing I can think of is the Soviet Union's deportations of Chechen's in WW2. Although Chechnya is not part of this conflict.

biko

This isn't the first time Armenian and Azerbaijan have been at war.
There were bad clashes with Sumgait pogrom, Baku pogrom and the Khojaly Massacre. All in the 80s/90s.

Fritzbox

donaghs wrote: »

Explain? Did the Russian state attempt to wipe out either nation in this war?

The closest thing I can think of is the Soviet Union's deportations of Chechen's in WW2. Although Chechnya is not part of this conflict.

It's primarily a conflict between Azerbaijan and the Armenian minority in Nagorno-Karabakh with a role also being played by the Armenian state as well, is it not? With the local powers, Turkey and Russia involved as well.

I guess there is less antagonistic past history between Russia and with either Armenia and Azerbaijan, than there is with Turkey - but countries don't get to choose their neighbours (any Irishman could tell you that) - so the Armenians basically have to face up to the reality of Turkish involvement in regional affairs.

Mr Meanor

Yurt! wrote: »

Azerbaijan will be tooled-up with Israeli weapons kit. Very cosy relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan.

Visited Armenia a number of years ago, stunning country that is off most people's radar. The women there are flat-out stunning. It's also a country that if things went their way could take off economically. Very educated population and it was a scientific research hotbed during the Soviet Union.

Never been to Azerbaijan but by all accounts it's a autocratic petro-dollar sh*tbox on the Caspian.

Isreal will have to be careful this time or they might lose future invites to the European Song Contest.

Tea drinker

Mr Meanor wrote: »

Isreal will have to be careful this time or they might lose future invites to the European Song Contest.

Or the right to shoot protesting kids in the head

Markcheese

https://youtu.be/1azHvmgcMaE

This is a russian youtube channel , so I'm guessing a very kremlin centric view ..
The Russians weren't happy because armenia was trying to liberalize and turning away from russia ,
Well they're back now ...