Herd immunity. Where is the evidence it is not an option?

pgj2015

When will we get herd immunity in Ireland?

Podge201

When the marts open, phase 2.

bazza1

When Coppers reopens!

pgj2015

after hours answers there. obviously no one knows exactly when we will get herd immunity but does anyone have any idea when we might?

Danno

pgj2015 wrote: »

When will we get herd immunity in Ireland?

One of three scenarios that I can think of right now:

1: The virus has been here since early winter and we already are nearing it.
2: The lockdown was implemented early enough and it's measures will ensure the disease dies out in the local population - but when the airports re-open for regular travel we'll be back at square one.
3: When there is a vaccine.

noodler

Need 70% infected I think.

Staplor

pgj2015 wrote: »

after hours answers there. obviously no one knows exactly when we will get herd immunity but does anyone have any idea when we might?

Has it been confirmed that herd immunity is possible for this?

Del Griffith

Staplor wrote: »

Has it been confirmed that herd immunity is possible for this?

It's the most likely scenario and has not been disproven so is a reasonable working assumption

Del Griffith

Danno wrote: »

2: The lockdown was implemented early enough and it's measures will ensure the disease dies out in the local population - but when the airports re-open for regular travel we'll be back at square one.

This is true and really just shows how pointless the lockdown really is.
Vulnerables really should have been cocooned while the rest get on with it and build community immunity.

wakka12

pgj2015 wrote: »

after hours answers there. obviously no one knows exactly when we will get herd immunity but does anyone have any idea when we might?

Well at this rate, never. Depends completely on how many cases emerge after lockdown, will probably be a similar rate of infection as Sweden is experiencing. Apparently some time in May 30% of the population of the city of Stockholm will have been infected at some point

Beasty

We don't even know if we can get any material immunity from this

Assetbacked

Some recent reports have come out to estimate it takes between 10-20% population infection to achieve herd immunity. We almost certainly have many multiples of people infected beyond the official reported cases which means, potentially, we are not far off herd immunity.

afatbollix

When theres a vaccine and 70% of the population has had one.

Jim Bob Scratcher

Never, if we keep these over the top restrictions in place

Still waters

Can we even get herd immunity for a virus like covid19, i could get it next week and get it again in 3 months time, i still wouldn't be immune to it

ShineOn7

Assetbacked wrote: »

Some recent reports have come out to estimate it takes between 10-20% population infection to achieve herd immunity. We almost certainly have many multiples of people infected beyond the official reported cases which means, potentially, we are not far off herd immunity.

Eh?

Every report I've read says 60/70%

wakka12

Assetbacked wrote: »

Some recent reports have come out to estimate it takes between 10-20% population infection to achieve herd immunity. We almost certainly have many multiples of people infected beyond the official reported cases which means, potentially, we are not far off herd immunity.

How could herd immunity possible take effect if the vast majority of people dont have the virus. That just makes no sense, why is there ever any panic about virus outbreaks in general if it only takes 10% to achieve herd immunity

Del Griffith

Del Griffith wrote: »

It's the most likely scenario and has not been disproven so is a reasonable working assumption

That's a whopping big assumption and one only the media and politicians are making. No medical personnel are saying this.

There is no evidence whatsoever that one is immune following infection with many physicians emphasising this at every opportunity.

I hope it is a thing and between that and a vaccine, we'll be sorted, but as of right now, there is not one piece of evidence backing up the herd immunity theory.

MadYaker

afatbollix wrote: »

When theres a vaccine and 70% of the population has had one.

This is the answer.

MadYaker

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That's a whopping big assumption and one only the media and politicians are making. No medical personnel are saying this.

There is no evidence whatsoever that one is immune following infection with many physicians emphasising this at every opportunity.

I hope it is a thing and between that and a vaccine, we'll be sorted, but as of right now, there is not one piece of evidence backing up the herd immunity theory.

There’s loads of evidence that people who get the infection develop antibodies and so should be immune. How long the immunity lasts is the big unknown I think.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/one-in-five-new-yorkers-may-have-had-covid-19-antibody-tests-suggest-1.4237417

Lucifer31

Jim Bob Scratcher wrote: »

Never, if we keep these over the top restrictions in place

Exactly right. How can you possibly get herd immunity if you're hiding at home, while your immune system weakens, if anything.

Peregrinus

Lucifer31 wrote: »

Exactly right. How can you possibly get herd immunity if you're hiding at home, while your immune system weakens, if anything.

You can get it by vaccinating a critical mass of the population.

Will we get herd immunity without a vaccine? Probably not, no, just like we don't have herd immunity to measles or flu or the common cold without a vaccine.

dePeatrick

Danno wrote: »

One of three scenarios that I can think of right now:

1: The virus has been here since early winter and we already are nearing it.
2: The lockdown was implemented early enough and it's measures will ensure the disease dies out in the local population - but when the airports re-open for regular travel we'll be back at square one.
3: When there is a vaccine.

1: Everyone who had a sniffle in early winter likes to think they had Covid, not true.

2: The lockdown was two weeks too late, sfa we can do about that now and the virus is not going away anytime soon, agreed about airports.

3: There won't be a vacinne, not now, not ever, a treatment yes, one after another some better than others some not.

Just calling it as I see it Danno, not a time to be beating around the bush.

Del Griffith

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That's a whopping big assumption and one only the media and politicians are making. No medical personnel are saying this.

There is no evidence whatsoever that one is immune following infection with many physicians emphasising this at every opportunity.

It's completely logical and even the WHO are saying it:

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405?s=09

There is zero confirmed cases reinfection aswell, some early testing issues, that's all. Safe assumption is immunity after infection like practically everything else.

Del Griffith

Still waters wrote: »

Can we even get herd immunity for a virus like covid19, i could get it next week and get it again in 3 months time, i still wouldn't be immune to it

Not correct

Del Griffith

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Eh?

Every report I've read says 60/70%

Here is the study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1

(For a synopsis check the comments)

Calina

dePeatrick wrote: »

1: Everyone who had a sniffle in early winter likes to think they had Covid, not true.

2: The lockdown was two weeks too late, sfa we can do about that now and the virus is not going away anytime soon, agreed about airports.

3: There won't be a vacinne, not now, not ever, a treatment yes, one after another some better than others some not.

Just calling it as I see it Danno, not a time to be beating around the bush.

Can you please outline why you think there will never be a vaccine? There are at least 110 ongoing research processes some of which are highly promising. The issue is the time it can take to get these to being deliverable at the point of care if and when a viable option is identified.

In general, for herd immunity, you need a vaccine and for highly infectious illnesses, we tend to like to have about 95% of the population covered. So speculation about 20% or 60-70% does not tie in with reality and we have seen measles return when MMR take up drops below 90% vaccine coverage.

The early UK policy which conflated herd immunity as a result of letting everyone get infected was amoral and frankly ignorant. Isolation has the benefit of reducing potential hosts in the population. It works but it needs global efforts. The UK and the US have been so fundamentally negligent here that the western countries are all at risk here despite cleaning out their own houses.

Supercell

Another consideration is whether immunity to one strain confers immunity to another strain, it doesn't for the flu, hence the need for an annual jab for vunerable groups. There are several known strains of this circulating in the global population currently.

jill_valentine

Herd immunity requires about 90% of the population to be immune. We haven't even achieved it with Measles.

is_that_so

jill_valentine wrote: »

Herd immunity requires about 90% immunity. We haven't even achieved that with Measles.

Measles is extremely transmissable and we have a very cooperative vector at work there! 60%-70% is estimated for COVID-19 but we've very little evidence of how many people have acquired immunity so far, just lots of guesses. Personally reckon we'll need some form of mitigation via treatment availability.

Del Griffith

jill_valentine wrote: »

Herd immunity requires about 90% of the population to be immune. We haven't even achieved it with Measles.

That's only measles. Flu herd immunity 30 - 44%.