Schools closed until February? (part 3)

wirelessdude01

Looks like the schools in the North are to be closed for a minimum of two weeks from Monday.

Ray Donovan

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Looks like the schools in the North are to be closed for a minimum of two weeks from Monday.

Thankfully the virus is more focussed on the UK schools on the Island rather than the Irish ones. Amazing how it can differentiate between the 6 counties and the ROI

Icyseanfitz

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Looks like the schools in the North are to be closed for a minimum of two weeks from Monday.

Wonder will they stop spouting the all island approach now :rolleyes:

Purplewaters

What stood out to me most in that twitter chain was that Ireland was used as an example of low spread in schools. Were we testing for asymptomatic kids? From what I remember we only tested symptomatic sever symtoms in March and the tweet uses us as some shining example. I read through the rest but it jsut reminded me how people can find evidence for any argument these days. Is it possible that schools going back is correlating wirh most countries second wave? If they aren't tracking and tracing to source then surely this is the one thing all these places have in common. We have less open now than in the summer.

...Ghost...

2 cases in my OH school. It was kept hush and leaked to staff today. I won't say where, but it's in Dublin. Also heard that DIT have a reported case today.

Purplewaters

Purplewaters wrote: »

Just wondering why people can't have kids at home doing work thats been assigned and work at the same time? Their kids are in classes of up to 30 in school so thr most one to one attention they could reallt be getting is a few mins an hour. Surely the parents could explain the activities or set up the web cam in morning then on their break. Not saying it is ideal but this idea that a parent cannot be at home with kids ans work is a bit obsurd when rhe kids are in classes of up to 30 they need to be at least a bit independent

Most people don’t have a job that can be done from home

MerlinSouthDub

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1316093455395958787

Good thread on infection rates in the UK. It’s based on the ONS data, so it’s a random sample and therefore removes any of those conspiracy theories that kids aren’t being tested. Very little change in infection rates amongst primary school children, doing much better than the overall population. Secondary school not so good, albeit still way better than the university age population.

Duly noted and ignored by the thread. Let’s not bring facts into it, there’s a rumour mill to be fed

MelbourneMan

Ray Donovan wrote: »

Thankfully the virus is more focussed on the UK schools on the Island rather than the Irish ones. Amazing how it can differentiate between the 6 counties and the ROI

I can take this one.

It doesnt. Any differences in the virus mutations circulating are making no discernable difference to the incidences in schools. The differences between the schools in the two countries are due to different levels of preventative measure taken both in the schools, and in the wider community, and the timings of those changes in behaviour. Standards of prevention have been systematically lower in the UK part of the island, leaving it now with this necessary step to stop this branch of transmission.

khalessi

khalessi wrote: »

Hilarious :D:pac::pac: spot the tired person. Good thing I haven't dyslexia as that could have be done in a pm but sure no worries. Fixed it anyways.

Relax...it was tongue in cheek

Smacruairi

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Duly noted and ignored by the thread. Let’s not bring facts into it, there’s a rumour mill to be fed

Remember when you said Dublin reached a peak and had turned a corner? The restrictions have not lowered infections, they've held them at a high enough number but have not reduced them as you claimed they would.

Dickie10

you would imagine 2 weeks at midterm surely will happen

Purplewaters

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Most people don’t have a job that can be done from home

So who is Tony holohan talking to then? Some dont but many do.... there are also plenty of stay at home parents. For short term measures these things need to be factored in. If you can't work from home ans you're open in phase 4 and 5 you're essential workers ans I suggested they still go to school if necessary.

Icyseanfitz

Dickie10 wrote: »

you would imagine 2 weeks at midterm surely will happen

Youd imagine it would be a painlessly way to do it but, Schools must stay open dammmit :pac: any of the big media outlets (rte, independent etc) reported schools closing up North? Or is there a blackouts on that too.

khalessi

TheTorment wrote: »

Relax...it was tongue in cheek

I know:D

Smacruairi

Smacruairi wrote: »

Remember when you said Dublin reached a peak and had turned a corner? The restrictions have not lowered infections, they've held them at a high enough number but have not reduced them as you claimed they would.

Link to this “claim” I am supposed to have made?

khalessi

Ray Donovan wrote: »

Thankfully the virus is more focussed on the UK schools on the Island rather than the Irish ones. Amazing how it can differentiate between the 6 counties and the ROI

Tis like the Chernobyl radiation, never crossed the border, magical place Republic of Ireland, southern sheep safe northern sheep fecked.

Smacruairi

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Dublins numbers are starting to fall at level 3

Here is one example

Smacruairi

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The 14 day case rate has grown 2% in the past 7 days, and has fallen 5% in the last 3days. Looks like a peak to me

Another here. You clearly felt that restrictions were doing a great job when you used these despite teachers wanting more restrictions for schools to lower infection rates

khalessi

MelbourneMan wrote: »

I can take this one.

It doesnt. Any differences in the virus mutations circulating are making no discernable difference to the incidences in schools. The differences between the schools in the two countries are due to different levels of preventative measure taken both in the schools, and in the wider community, and the timings of those changes in behaviour. Standards of prevention have been systematically lower in the UK part of the island, leaving it now with this necessary step to stop this branch of transmission.

Was talking to colleague about the fact that our school has had only one case since reopening despite being in the covid capital of Dublin and she mentioned that a lot of staff off sick. I hadn't seen that as school breaks divided into jnr/Snr, 1st/2nd, 3rd/4th and 5th/6th. Wondering now if we just havent been told, either formally or informally. I was thinking it was down to windows and doors being open all day and disinfecting tables and chairs every half hour or so.

Smacruairi

Smacruairi wrote: »

Here is one example

It was a statement of fact. On the 6th when I made that post the 3 day average was falling. It has since stalled and not continued to fall, but 7 day average is still slightly below previous 7 days. An even if cases were to accelerate again, the fact still holds true.

irishproduce

Scoondal wrote: »

That page never existed (!)
The narrative has changed. Did no one tell you. Schools can stay open now(900 cases per day). But last June (30 cases per day) they could not re-open because infection would spread.

Shh. If they find out I said this I will be called unpleasant names again.

Tbf we didn't know back in the original lockdown what we know about the virus now.
That's not to say the virus isn't deadly. It is. But we know now that it is very specific in who it will affect.

Great opinion piece by former clinical director for the Midlands recently in the independent.

"If the Spanish Flu was sweeping across the country, it would be good to be frightened, it would mean people would mind themselves. But the Spanish Flu is not sweeping across the country. This is not an indiscriminate killer - we know now it is a condition that discriminates heavily against people we can identify."

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/i-lost-my-job-for-speaking-out-but-i-have-no-regrets-dr-martin-feeley-on-his-coronavirus-views-39585808.html

Smacruairi

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It was a statement of fact. On the 6th when I made that post the 3 day average was falling. It has since stalled and not continued to fall, but 7 day average is still slightly below previous 7 days. An even if cases were to accelerate again, the fact still holds true.

But you portrayed it as proof level 3 was working, schools couldn't be having an impact blah blah. You didn't use it as a one off fact, you constructed a narrative from it. So now would you agree your narrative was wrong and you realise that maybe, just maybe, schools at their current levels could be having an impact

Smacruairi

Smacruairi wrote: »

Another here. You clearly felt that restrictions were doing a great job when you used these despite teachers wanting more restrictions for schools to lower infection rates

Statement of fact. When so much of what is posted is baseless opinion, I know it might be a struggle to know a fact when you see one. And the fact still stands. Growth has stalled in Dublin. It is stubbornly staying still now and remains to be seen if the decline resumes or not, and I commented two days ago on that trend when I said the next 7 days was crucial to see would level 3 just stop growth or actually result in declining cases.

Smacruairi

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Statement of fact. When so much of what is posted is baseless opinion, I know it might be a struggle to know a fact when you see one. And the fact still stands. Growth has stalled in Dublin. It is stubbornly staying still now and remains to be seen if the decline resumes or not, and I commented two days ago on that trend when I said the next 7 days was crucial to see would level 3 just stop growth or actually result in declining cases.

Baseless opinion just like yours that Dublin had reached its peak and level 3 was working. Cheers, thanks for the opinion which you are right, it did turn out to be baseless. We got 1000 cases nationally a few days later, Northern Ireland is in tatters, and our contact tracing can't keep up.

MelbourneMan

Smacruairi wrote: »

But you portrayed it as proof level 3 was working, schools couldn't be having an impact blah blah. You didn't use it as a one off fact, you constructed a narrative from it. So now would you agree your narrative was wrong and you realise that maybe, just maybe, schools at their current levels could be having an impact

It might be helpful here perhaps to take a slightly different view of this. There is a general tendency to over simply virus spread into having an impact/not having an impact, or safe/unsafe, or this is safer than that therefore we should not be be prevented from doing this. etc.
But it cannot be looked at in this black and white manner.

The chain of transmission has many many links, and all contribute to the overall spread and R0. Individual factors have greater or lesser contributions, and also have different levels of importance to society in general. It is never true to say schools are or are not having an impact. Whereever people interface, there is an impact.

The task of the politicians is to weigh up the sum of all factors contributing to spread, and weigh up the the impact on society, health, and the economy of curtailing these activities to varying degrees, and balancing those two elements with the capability of the health service to handle the caseload. The data and advice on the virus element is provided to them by NPHET.

It is not easy I can assure you.

Smacruairi

Smacruairi wrote: »

But you portrayed it as proof level 3 was working, schools couldn't be having an impact blah blah. You didn't use it as a one off fact, you constructed a narrative from it. So now would you agree your narrative was wrong and you realise that maybe, just maybe, schools at their current levels could be having an impact

It is working. If it does enough remains to be seen. The big difference though is I provide facts to back up my opinions and not rumour and conjecture. The 4% daily growth rate in this country has been there, unchanged, since June. Growth rate is driven by the number of potential exposures, and schools returning did not change the growth rate. In June and July much of the country, especially 18 to 50 year olds, retuned to normal social behaviour. This kicked off a growth in cases that has remained steady since. The more cases grew, the compounding effect kicked in, and now we see super spreader events such as the Moycullen Gaa team with 45 cases following a county final. These are the seeds of the growth, not schools. The route of this virus through society is community -> social lives-> home -> work and schools -> homes -> community and round again. Where is the best opportunity to break that chain? Its the adults not moderating their behaviour that is driving the growth. And the supporting data is right there in the case numbers

eagle eye

Despite all the denials we have a mid-term break coming up and we'll see how things are towards the end of that.

I suspect there'll he a big drop and that's the proof that the schools are causing the rapid growth.

Smacruairi

Smacruairi wrote: »

Baseless opinion just like yours that Dublin had reached its peak and level 3 was working. Cheers, thanks for the opinion which you are right, it did turn out to be baseless. We got 1000 cases nationally a few days later, Northern Ireland is in tatters, and our contact tracing can't keep up.

It’s not baseless. Level 3 stopped the growth, its right there in the numbers, daily numbers have plateaued in Dublin. And I will say it again, growth rate has been constant since the end of June, the proportion of cases in school aged kids is unchanged since before they returned and the positive rates from contact tracing in schools is lower than tracing in the community - and if the contact tracing is as limited as has been related on this thread, only the highest risk contacts would be being tested

Icyseanfitz

eagle eye wrote: »

Despite all the denials we have a mid-term break coming up and we'll see how things are towards the end of that.

I suspect there'll he a big drop and that's the proof that the schools are causing the rapid growth.

If they closed the schools for 2-3 weeks we would see the impact, which is exactly why they will not extend the midterm for more than a week

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

Despite all the denials we have a mid-term break coming up and we'll see how things are towards the end of that.

I suspect there'll he a big drop and that's the proof that the schools are causing the rapid growth.

If you expect to see a big drop, you won’t see it until 3 weeks after midterm as if the contention is correct, cases would need to cycle through households and other contacts first, and don’t forget Halloween parties will happen. If it drops before then it’s level 3 or other measures taken pre midterm