Schools closed until February? (part 3)

deiseindublin

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Our school have the heating on and windows closed already

Talk to your LWR.

irishblessing

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Our school have the heating on and windows closed already

I think we've made the decision to hold our kids out at least another week if there's no announcement extending the break.We live in the worst county for covid rate, so it's not going well here. Just in the last few days I've heard of so many people testing positive, even the builder we've recently had out to the house (outdoor work only thank god) and his two kids.

If the school windows here were to be closed though there is no way in hell mine are going back. So far the school have been sticking to keeping the windows open (after that one earlier hiccup) and requests to layer/bring coats is still the plan as far as I know. If that changes though then they won't be going.

SusanC10

irishblessing wrote: »

I think we've made the decision to hold our kids out at least another week if there's no announcement extending the break.We live in the worst county for covid rate, so it's not going well here. Just in the last few days I've heard of so many people testing positive, even the builder we've recently had out to the house (outdoor work only thank god) and his two kids.

If the school windows here were to be closed though there is no way in hell mine are going back. So far the school have been sticking to keeping the windows open (after that one earlier hiccup) and requests to layer/bring coats is still the plan as far as I know. If that changes though then they won't be going.

We are going to wait until this weekend and make a decision then. Neither school has cases yet - that we know of!
We had always said Level 5 but we are going to give it a couple of more days.

jimmytwotimes 2013

deiseindublin wrote: »

Talk to your LWR.

Our LWR in management's pocket

wirelessdude01

deiseindublin wrote: »

Talk to your LWR.

Alof of schools, the VP or Principal are the LWR.

JP100

Expect to see the schools being closed to start slowly feeding in to the case numbers over the course of the next week or so.

JP100

JP100 wrote: »

Expect to see the schools being closed to start slowly feeding in to the case numbers over the course of the next week or so.

Great to see the effect closing schools a week early has already had. I am presuming they must have? There can be no other explanation?

BonsaiKitten

deiseindublin wrote: »

You'd wonder where ventilation/open windows stands coming into Winter with minimum temperatures allowed in schools? You're supposed to let management know if temp is below 17.2 and they fix it, find a suitable alternative or send the kids home.

(Edited to add that TUI say 17.2 C, but INTO and ASTI say 16C, never knew they were different).

Yeah I've been wondering that one too. Think our LWR emailed Norma Foley about it. No reply yet (insert surprised look here) but her team might come back on it, who knows.

irishblessing

Deleted User wrote: »

Great to see the effect closing schools a week early has already had. I am presuming they must have? There can be no other explanation?

Are you joking? Schools didn't close early, last Friday was always the midterm break date.
There is no possible way that the closing of the schools could have had any effect on the numbers. It would take weeks and a longer closure to see that.

Of course there are other explanations. The contract testing and tracing system collapsed. More than 10,000 people have fallen through the hole.
The large testing centre at UCD has closed last weekend and the next.
Who is processing all those tests then properly tracing?
The HSE claim it will have no effect but I call bs.

meeeeh

I think sarcasm detector might be broken...

Loafing Oaf

irishblessing wrote: »

Are you joking?

He is...

deiseindublin

jimmytwotimes 2013 wrote: »

Our LWR in management's pocket

Documentation says that if you don't feel issue has been resolved by LWR, you can contact union independently.

JP100

Well schools being off is great as an individual who may be infectious has not being in a crowded school for the past 4 days. It only takes 4 or 5 days sometimes less from the point of an individual being infected by somebody else and then turning up at a test centre. I expect that to slowly start feeding in to case numbers over the next week or so.

meeeeh

I actually believe the infection numbers will probably fall because of school holidays but it will be very hard to tell what's due to holidays and what's due to level 5. Anyway it seems now that level 3 already worked at least up to a point.

MelbourneMan

irishblessing wrote: »

Of course there are other explanations. The contract testing and tracing system collapsed. More than 10,000 people have fallen through the hole.
The large testing centre at UCD has closed last weekend and the next.
Who is processing all those tests then properly tracing?
The HSE claim it will have no effect but I call bs.

Hello. Indeed the effect is negligible. Sensationalist headlines, or, the more provocative for the sake of it, journalists, have been looking for some bad news on this one. But anyone following the detail and understanding the real implications knows it has had no negative effect on control of the virus.

Thats me

MelbourneMan wrote: »

But anyone following the detail and understanding the real implications knows it has had no negative effect on control of the virus.

Ha-ha, where these anyones with their details? You failed to answer where costs from closing schools are going from, now you refer "anyone". Since you are systematically failing to provide facts to support your statements, but unable to stop flooding yourself, you can ask moderator to help you

deliege

Heard from friends back in Belgium today. So last week there were talks of closing the schools earlier (midterm break is supposed to start next Monday there) and government said no, no need, we keep schools open as usual. Yesterday they suddenly announced that secondary schools were going to close this Wed (i.e. 3 days before official term). And today many local authorities / BOM have decided to close primary school from today onward, for many of them because between sick kids and sick staff there's no point anymore.

My friends are especially angry as there doesn't seem to be any "plan B" in place (be it distance learning, emergency childcare for front-line workers etc). It all looks just like last spring: pretending everything is going on, before closing in a panic over a matter of hours.

I know Belgian numbers are horrendous at the moment (not only cases but hospital situation too). But bear in mind that number wise (per head), Belgium is only 20 days ahead of Ireland. Let's hope Level 5 really substantially and durably changes the trend. And that schools have alternative plans on file...

SusanC10

deliege wrote: »

Heard from friends back in Belgium today. So last week there were talks of closing the schools earlier (midterm break is supposed to start next Monday there) and government said no, no need, we keep schools open as usual. Yesterday they suddenly announced that secondary schools were going to close this Wed (i.e. 3 days before official term). And today many local authorities / BOM have decided to close primary school from today onward, for many of them because between sick kids and sick staff there's no point anymore.

My friends are especially angry as there doesn't seem to be any "plan B" in place (be it distance learning, emergency childcare for front-line workers etc). It all looks just like last spring: pretending everything is going on, before closing in a panic over a matter of hours.

I know Belgian numbers are horrendous at the moment (not only cases but hospital situation too). But bear in mind that number wise (per head), Belgium is only 20 days ahead of Ireland. Let's hope Level 5 really substantially and durably changes the trend. And that schools have alternative plans on file...

Was just going to ask about that - are any of the European Countries considering Lockdowns going to include the closing of schools and moving them to remote learning in their plans ?

Loafing Oaf

meeeeh wrote: »

I actually believe the infection numbers will probably fall because of school holidays but it will be very hard to tell what's due to holidays and what's due to level 5.

Yes waters muddy enough to keep the schools open if there's any sort of fall in the figures over the next couple of weeks...

irishblessing

meeeeh wrote: »

I think sarcasm detector might be broken...

Thank god it's me, ha ha :pac:

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. Indeed the effect is negligible. Sensationalist headlines, or, the more provocative for the sake of it, journalists, have been looking for some bad news on this one. But anyone following the detail and understanding the real implications knows it has had no negative effect on control of the virus.

You can't answer direct questions and you conveniently ignore criticisms. You're not an authority on anything and provide no proof of anything yet you think you've got some kind of special importance or legitimacy here. You don't.

meeeeh

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yes waters muddy enough to keep the schools open if there's any sort of fall in the figures over the next couple of weeks...

Because there is no need to close schools. Numbers are already falling. The point of lockdown is to close as few things as possible and still get the numbers down.

Similarly to the person who compared us to Belgium, we are not even close to the trajectory Belgium (or Czechia) is on. Their numbers are extremely high while ours started falling from approx 1200 per day.

wirelessdude01

The positivity rate in schools makes no sense at all.

Those kids who don't shed it at the same rate as adults are actually higher.

2.7% for primary against 2.1% for secondary.

irishblessing

meeeeh wrote: »

Because there is no need to close schools. Numbers are already falling. The point of lockdown is to close as few things as possible and still get the numbers down.

Similarly to the person who compared us to Belgium, we are not even close to the trajectory Belgium (or Czechia) is on. Their numbers are extremely high while ours started falling from approx 1200 per day.

From RTE article today:

The Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan told a press briefing that "we are not at a stage that we can draw any conclusion that there is a trend from the fewer number of cases".

Although there have been fewer than 1,000 cases a day over the past four days, we "definitely cannot say that we have turned that particular corner".

meeeeh

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

The positivity rate in schools makes no sense at all.

Those kids who don't shed it at the same rate as adults are actually higher.

2.7% for primary against 2.1% for secondary.

Younger kids have less distancing measures and don't wear masks.

Masks are supposed to be very effective at reducing infections. You are not comparing like with like.

meeeeh

irishblessing wrote: »

From RTE article today:

The Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan told a press briefing that "we are not at a stage that we can draw any conclusion that there is a trend from the fewer number of cases".

Although there have been fewer than 1,000 cases a day over the past four days, we "definitely cannot say that we have turned that particular corner".

We can probably say we are not Belgium. We went with restrictions quicker and harder, if we end up in position of Belgium then the restrictions don't work.

However I will bet you that whatever dr. Holohan is saying the numbers will fall. The difference from level 5 is not even showing yet.

Higgins5473

meeeeh wrote: »

Because there is no need to close schools. Numbers are already falling. The point of lockdown is to close as few things as possible and still get the numbers down.

Similarly to the person who compared us to Belgium, we are not even close to the trajectory Belgium (or Czechia) is on. Their numbers are extremely high while ours started falling from approx 1200 per day.

This will hit you hard and may be a shock to the system. The schools have been closed since Friday and numbers have dropped since then.

If we are to believe the HSE claim that there is a 1-2 turnaround results on test then the closing of the schools are a bigger indicator that the spread of the virus is rampant and as a result of schools rather than we are succeeding in containment due to lockdown measures.

This is coming from a parent primarily who wants nothing more than schools to stay open.

8k71ps

meeeeh wrote: »

Because there is no need to close schools. Numbers are already falling. The point of lockdown is to close as few things as possible and still get the numbers down.

Similarly to the person who compared us to Belgium, we are not even close to the trajectory Belgium (or Czechia) is on. Their numbers are extremely high while ours started falling from approx 1200 per day.

To close as few things as possible absolutely isn't the point of a circuit breaker lockdown, it's to cut down community transmission. If the community transmission rates aren't significantly decreased than the moment we open up the country we'll see the rates soar pretty quickly

They also have a much larger population, but I take the point.

HerrKuehn

Higgins5473 wrote: »

This will hit you hard and may be a shock to the system. The schools have been closed since Friday and numbers have dropped since then.

If we are to believe the HSE claim that there is a 1-2 turnaround results on test then the closing of the schools are a bigger indicator that the spread of the virus is rampant and as a result of schools rather than we are succeeding in containment due to lockdown measures.

This is coming from a parent primarily who wants nothing more than schools to stay open.

Today is Tuesday. If the schools were making a difference over such a short time frame, surely we would see the effect every week after the weekend?

8k71ps

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Today is Tuesday. If the schools were making a difference over such a short time frame, surely we would see the effect every week after the weekend?

There is the possibility that there is a psychological aspect to it. If you're not stuffed like sardines in a room 5 days of every week, you're less likely to think you have covid if you do feel under the weather

taffy lulu

Nothing to see here, trot on!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/one-of-country-s-main-labs-unable-to-process-covid-19-tests-over-weekend-due-to-staff-shortages-1.4389343

wirelessdude01

Anyone else watching the presser get the idea that the top table seemed to be under the impression that these public health teams for schools that the department are making a big deal about putting in place now have always been there?

wirelessdude01

taffy lulu wrote: »

No wonder there are a lack of results from this weekend! It’ll be the same next weekend. Nothing to see here, trot on!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/one-of-country-s-main-labs-unable-to-process-covid-19-tests-over-weekend-due-to-staff-shortages-1.4389343

They do approx 600 tests per day so isn't a significant story at all. As far as I'm aware they passed their workload to an external lab.

Thats me

Higgins5473 wrote: »

The schools have been closed since Friday and numbers have dropped since then.

Not that simple Delay between triggering factor and response in the stats is huge. New cases started dropping before L5 began - that was presumably response on L3 restrictions introduced couple weeks earlier. Similarly results of L5 and school closure will be delayed. And it will be difficult to establish on which factors it depends - L5/schools/weather/whatever.

MerlinSouthDub

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Today is Tuesday. If the schools were making a difference over such a short time frame, surely we would see the effect every week after the weekend?

Tuesday's results relate to swabs processed on Monday, which relate to tests taken on Sunday. The nonsense that numbers have dropped because schools have closed is bizarre.

8k71ps

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

They do approx 600 tests per day so isn't a significant story at all. As far as I'm aware they passed their workload to an external lab.

They were doing 10k tests a week, I think that's the mean average perhaps? Tbqh it'll be fairly obvious since there'll be a testing backlog so we'll see during the week

8k71ps

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Tuesday's results relate to swabs processed on Monday, which relate to tests taken on Sunday. The nonsense that numbers have dropped because schools have closed is bizarre.

That's not necessarily true if the midterm decreases the number of students or related contacts being tested.

MerlinSouthDub

8k71ps wrote: »

That's not necessarily true if the midterm decreases the number of students or related contacts being tested.

What is not necessarily true? It's completely clear that schools being closed for mid term could not possibly have impacted yesterday's swab results, it is far far too early to tell

HerrKuehn

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Tuesday's results relate to swabs processed on Monday, which relate to tests taken on Sunday. The nonsense that numbers have dropped because schools have closed is bizarre.

Oh, I know that. There are some ridiculous claims on here. I presume there are few if any science teachers on the thread? The testing 1 child who is positive results in a positivity rate of 1 in 30 was a personal favourite.

MerlinSouthDub

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Oh, I know that. There are some ridiculous claims on here. I presume there are few if any science teachers on the thread? The testing 1 child who is positive results in a positivity rate of 1 in 30 was a personal favourite.

Ha ha. Yes, sorry, I was agreeing with you and supporting your point.

wirelessdude01

8k71ps wrote: »

They were doing 10k tests a week, I think that's the mean average perhaps? Tbqh it'll be fairly obvious since there'll be a testing backlog so we'll see during the week

The NVRL was never doing 10k tests a day

Higgins5473

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Today is Tuesday. If the schools were making a difference over such a short time frame, surely we would see the effect every week after the weekend?

Incubation period is according to our experts 2-4 days. So no, weekends will not make a huge amount of difference.

khalessi

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Oh, I know that. There are some ridiculous claims on here. I presume there are few if any science teachers on the thread? The testing 1 child who is positive results in a positivity rate of 1 in 30 was a personal favourite.

Mine too, since I was being sarcastic, but glad to entertain

vid36

More European developments, Italy has moved 75% of secondary school classes online.Speculation that Macron will announce a 4 week lockdown tomorrow moving secondary schools to online classes.

Thats me

Higgins5473 wrote: »

Incubation period is according to our experts 2-4 days. So no, weekends will not make a huge amount of difference.

What is incubation period in the case of COVID? 1 week or 2 of symptom-less stage is not unusual. During the symptom-less period infected person does spread a virus. When significant symptoms appearing - it was likely virus is already killed by immune system to that stage and immune system started to kill debris left after virus, including organs containing this debris. But i'm not sure about incubation period - does it exists and how long it takes between cells infected and they start producing new generations of the virus.

Thats me

HerrKuehn wrote: »

The testing 1 child who is positive results in a positivity rate of 1 in 30 was a personal favourite.

So what is your expectation what could be result of testing 30 children of 30?

meeeeh

Thats me wrote: »

So what is your expectation what could be result of testing 30 children of 30?

If we follow the positivity rate in a the general testing which is currently just under 6% you are looking at 2 out of 30.

However since positivity rate is less than 3% in schools that means there is good chance only three quarters of one child would be positive. Testing 30 out of 30 would also mean those who are less of a close contact and less likely to be infected would be tested then I suspect positivity rate would be even less for schools. So maybe one half of child would test positive.

This is fun. In any case the more you test less the positivity rate would be (if we take it that the reproduction no. is 1).

blanch152

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Oh, I know that. There are some ridiculous claims on here. I presume there are few if any science teachers on the thread? The testing 1 child who is positive results in a positivity rate of 1 in 30 was a personal favourite.

That was completely bizarre and made me fear for the future of our kids. If that is evidence of the quality of thinking among teachers, closing schools and homeschooling might well be best for the country.

blanch152

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

The positivity rate in schools makes no sense at all.

Those kids who don't shed it at the same rate as adults are actually higher.

2.7% for primary against 2.1% for secondary.

Not at all, makes perfect sense when you think about it. Second-level students are better able to follow protocols and avoid spreading the disease, even if they are more likely to be infectious.

Four year olds are more like the ASTI - they don’t understand what needs to be done.

On a serious note, great news that the positivity rate is one-third that in the community, it shows that schools are not contributing to the spread of COVID in any meaningful way, and therefore should remain open.

Blondini

blanch152 wrote: »

Not at all, makes perfect sense when you think about it. Second-level students are better able to follow protocols.

Thanks for that. I like to start the day with a good chuckle.

It's obvious you've never observed teenagers' behaviour in their natural habitat, from a professional perspective.

8k71ps

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

The NVRL was never doing 10k tests a day

Yes they were [url] https://www.ucd.ie/newsandopinion/news/2020/april/10/hsedoublescovid-19testingcapacitythroughucdnvrlto10000followinggmiagreement/ [/url]