Schools closed until February? (part 3)

irishblessing

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. I am sorry you have that impression. I try to answer any questions as fully as possible. My main goal, and that of those trying to help the general communication and understanding of the crisis, is to simplify as far as possible, while providing factually correct answers.
I observe that there is a lot of poor quality information here, which leads to circular discussions, and the citing of poor quality references, or ones beyond the training of some drawing conclusions from them to make a point. I some cases, less is more, and à streamlined answer to some of the questions being posed or discussed here, is, I think, more helpful to all.

And I'm sorry that you refuse to answer direct questions even though you said if I would expand upon a particular question, you would be happy to answer that. There were also other questions and points made that you conveniently ignored.

For the third time, what is your position of authority? Your opinion as a random user on boards is no more valid than anyone else's. That spiel above actually didn't argue any point, give any information or contribute to this discussion other than to try and place yourself up on some kind of weird pedestal.

wirelessdude01

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. I am sorry you have that impression. I try to answer any questions as fully as possible. My main goal, and that of those trying to help the general communication and understanding of the crisis, is to simplify as far as possible, while providing factually correct answers.
I observe that there is a lot of poor quality information here, which leads to circular discussions, and the citing of poor quality references, or ones beyond the training of some drawing conclusions from them to make a point. I some cases, less is more, and à streamlined answer to some of the questions being posed or discussed here, is, I think, more helpful to all.

Communication is pi$$ poor at the moment. Message is being lost in all the noise.

wirelessdude01

Str8outtaWuhan wrote: »

if a nurse or a doctor has the covid tracker app and they receive notification they are a close contact do they isolate for 14 days or do they have to contact their hospital manager who asks PH to determine if they are to disregard the notification? Heard one of the journo's asking the weird red headed woman on briefing about teachers and the app, couldn't believe the app was context specific?

Teachers are being asked to disable it while in school.

irishblessing

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Think most schools have been working away on something. Now again it won't please everyone. Not the schools fault. We wanted some form of central framework but the govt didn't want this.

There should be some equity framework here for students as many posters have pointed out. Teachers and students and parents should be provided with the equipment and training necessary, and additional funding for more teachers or assistants who can help manage the dual workload. We shouldn't leave this burden to each school to figure out on the fly, on their own with no more funding support. While they are currently teaching, so the DES/gov't have wasted the spring, summer, and now fall break opportunities. Even our school principal is a teaching principal. There is absolutely no capacity for attention on anything else in the schools that would normally need working on. I honestly don't know how they do it, working in such an unsafe environment to boot. When I'm out an about near someone who either has no mask or it's under their chin, I move away and feel stressed. I can't imagine being stuck in a small room with 30+ people fully adept at spreading and unmasked. JFC. And the government people won't sit anywhere near each other in the same room, having booked out venues and called a recess due to a suspected case at one stage.

This is a government failing, absolutely nothing to do with teachers or schools, I agree.

JimmyVik

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Think most schools have been working away on something. Now again it won't please everyone. Not the schools fault. We wanted some form of central framework but the govt didn't want this.

Probably, but what was needed was a unified model. And training for teachers, kids and parents in using it.

SusanC10

Do you think realistically that we will get to the Christmas break with the Schools remaining fully open ?

JP100

Another study this time from the University of Edinburgh across 131 countries showing how the reopening of schools causes the R transmission rate to surge.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-r-rate-school-closures-lockdown-lancet-study-b1251617.html

meeeeh

SusanC10 wrote: »

Do you think realistically that we will get to the Christmas break with the Schools remaining fully open ?

What gives you idea they wouldn't? the numbers leveled off or are even falling (we will see better today considering we were getting bank holiday weekend numbers yesterday). So if schools were opened at 1200 cases why would they be closed at 700 or 600 or 100 as Nphet are aiming for?

I really don't get this wishful thinking for numbers to be higher just so we can close schools.

khalessi

meeeeh wrote: »

What gives you idea they wouldn't? the numbers leveled off or are even falling (we will see better today considering we were getting bank holiday weekend numbers yesterday). So if schools were opened at 1200 cases why would they be closed at 700 or 600 or 100 as Nphet are aiming for?

I really don't get this wishful thinking for numbers to be higher just so we can close schools.

I dont get how the fact no one wants schools closed is consistently ignored by you.

meeeeh

JP100 wrote: »

Another study this time from the University of Edinburgh across 131 countries showing how the reopening of schools causes the R transmission rate to surge.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-r-rate-school-closures-lockdown-lancet-study-b1251617.html

It's the same Lancet study that was posted here 100 times always by someone who hoped that people wouldn't actually read link provided.

“We found an increase in R after reopening schools but is not clear whether the increase is attributable to specific age groups, where there may be substantial differences in adherence to social distancing measures within and outside classrooms,” said Harish Nair, professor of paediatric infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh. “Furthermore, more data are needed to understand the specific role of schools in increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission through robust contact tracing."

Results indicated that people took some time to adapt their behaviour to comply with workplace closures and stay-at-home requirements, which was similar to the delay between the measures and the effects seen on R of between one and three weeks.

Researchers suggested the delay was possibly due to the population taking time to modify their behaviour to adhere to measures.

They said some of the greatest effects on R were seen for measures that were more easily enforceable by law, like schools reopening and public events bans.

This may have been because their effects were more immediate and compliance was easier to ensure, the researchers added.

SusanC10

meeeeh wrote: »

I really don't get this wishful thinking for numbers to be higher just so we can close schools.

I am not wishful thinking for higher numbers or school closures.
I am just trying to be realistic about what will happen. Schools are closing in various European Countries already and moving online.

is_that_so

khalessi wrote: »

I dont get how the fact no one wants schools closed is consistently ignored by you.

Not you but there are plenty of those too! There's always a middle way that doesn't bow to the extremes.

meeeeh

khalessi wrote: »

I dont get how the fact no one wants schools closed is consistently ignored by you.

Why constant questioning then when numbers are going down. It seems to me very much like wishful thinking. Nobody posts great the numbers seem to be leveling off so schools should come back because since we were able to keep them open at higher numbers we will be able to keep them open at lower numbers.

AlphaDelta1

I have to say i am worried the keep the schools open at all costs approach may cost us in the coming weeks. I don't see why we can't keep the kids out until say mid November and give us a chance to get the numbers way down. They can always keep them in school a bit longer next summer to make up the time by when we'll more than likely have a widespread vaccine.

khalessi

meeeeh wrote: »

Why constant questioning then when numbers are going down. It seems to me very much like wishful thinking. Nobody posts great the numbers seem to be leveling off so schools should come back because since we were able to keep them open at higher numbers we will be able to keep them open at lower numbers.

Everyone posts they dont want schools closed, surely thats a hint they dont want schools closed.

joe40

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

I have to say i am worried the keep the schools open at all costs approach may cost us in the coming weeks. I don't see why we can't keep the kids out until say mid November and give us a chance to get the numbers way down. They can always keep them in school a bit longer next summer to make up the time by when we'll more than likely have a widespread vaccine.

I don't think a widespread vaccine by next summer is likely at all.
Keeping kids off for a few weeks now would be fine if there was going to be no further issues in the new year.
I just don't think that will be the case

meeeeh

SusanC10 wrote: »

I am not wishful thinking for higher numbers or school closures.
I am just trying to be realistic about what will happen. Schools are closing in various European Countries already and moving online.

And numbers in those countries are significantly higher. The answer is to react to numbers in own country not to what for example Czechia, Belgium or Slovenia (2600 cases yesterday and increasing, test positivity rate 30%, 2 mil population) are doing. Compare the numbers I quoted above to Ireland and tell me why it makes sense to close schools at between 1000 to 700 cases, positivity rate well under 10% and population more than twice the size of Sloveninan example above.

If anyone remembers spring many countries dealt with Covid much better than Ireland and reopened much quicker. At the moment we seem to be in the good group.

meeeeh

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

I have to say i am worried the keep the schools open at all costs approach may cost us in the coming weeks. I don't see why we can't keep the kids out until say mid November and give us a chance to get the numbers way down. They can always keep them in school a bit longer next summer to make up the time by when we'll more than likely have a widespread vaccine.

The vaccine thing is wishful thinking, there are absolutely no guarantees it will be available to enough people, that take up will be good enough or that immunity will be long enough.

8k71ps

meeeeh wrote: »

And numbers in those countries are significantly higher. The answer is to react to numbers in own country not to what for example Czechia, Belgium or Slovenia (2600 cases yesterday and increasing, test positivity rate 30%, 2 mil population) are doing. Compare the numbers I quoted above to Ireland and tell me why it makes sense to close schools at between 1000 to 700 cases, positivity rate well under 10% and population more than twice the size of Sloveninan example above.

If anyone remembers spring many countries dealt with Covid much better than Ireland and reopened much quicker. At the moment we seem to be in the good group.

Do schools only spread when it's endemic in the community or is it a spreader itself? If it's a spreader in and of itself we should see quite a bottom or a slow decelerating decrease pretty quickly. We should also maybe see an increase as the schools reopen due to increased referencing for testing for students etc (the main reason the cases are down is a large decrease in 15-24 and a decrease in growth between 4-15), which is far more likely a case of them not being tested than it going away if that's the case.

is_that_so

meeeeh wrote: »

The vaccine thing is wishful thinking, there are absolutely no guarantees it will be available to enough people, that take up will be good enough or that immunity will be long enough.

I think you can discount the risk of low take up, there'll be a stampede for it, once we've been through Lockdown number 25!

wirelessdude01

SusanC10 wrote: »

I am not wishful thinking for higher numbers or school closures.
I am just trying to be realistic about what will happen. Schools are closing in various European Countries already and moving online.

It's called planning and possibly being realistic. Something that some on here don't seem to want to acknowledge might actually be prudent.

Blondini

khalessi wrote: »

Everyone posts they dont want schools closed, surely thats a hint they dont want schools closed.

Exactly. I don't know one teacher here, or in real life, who want schools closed. It's the default lazy argument to say otherwise.

We want proper risk mitigation and equality with the rest of the societal Covid restrictions. That's all.

wirelessdude01

Blondini wrote: »

Exactly. I don't know one teacher here, or in real life, who want schools closed. It's the default lazy argument to say otherwise.

We want proper risk mitigation and equality with the rest of the societal Covid restrictions. That's all.

Wanting that though makes us even worse, it makes us both lazy AND entitled!!

History Queen

Maybe it would be helpful if those arguing against teachers could explain what exactly their opposition to increased testing as well as contact tracing in schools is?

MerlinSouthDub

We are in a good position in Ireland. Stable (falling) numbers with schools open. I'm surprised there is not more positivity on this thread (and the main thread, for that matter). Other countries in Europe have much higher infection rates than us and have left it late to take action. We have acted early and seem to be suppressing the virus again. With schools open!

khalessi

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

We are in a good position in Ireland. Stable (falling) numbers with schools open. I'm surprised there is not more positivity on this thread (and the main thread, for that matter). Other countries in Europe have much higher infection rates than us and have left it late to take action. We have acted early and seem to be suppressing the virus again. With schools open!

Yet again, someone ignoring that no one wants schools closed. What is requested is transparency, proper testing and tracing and a proper definition of what is a close contact in a classroom and an honest reporting on schools instead of the "all is fine nothing to see here approach.

Blondini

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

We are in a good position in Ireland. Stable (falling) numbers with schools open. I'm surprised there is not more positivity on this thread (and the main thread, for that matter). Other countries in Europe have much higher infection rates than us and have left it late to take action. We have acted early and seem to be suppressing the virus again. With schools open!

Yes, they're open, and hopefully staying open.

I'm confused as to why this keeps being repeated.

MerlinSouthDub

khalessi wrote: »

Yet again, someone ignoring that no one wants schools closed. What is requested is transparency, proper testing and tracing and a proper definition of what is a close contact in a classroom and an honest reporting on schools instead of the "all is fine nothing to see here approach.

I've no issue with increasing testing in schools. But the fact is schools being open is not causing the rapid uncontrolled spread of the virus that some seem to be fear. Reading this thread, you would think that every classroom is a hotbed of infection. The measures we currently have in place are suppressing the virus.

Smacruairi

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I've no issue with increasing testing in schools. But the fact is schools being open is not causing the rapid uncontrolled spread of the virus that some seem to be fear. Reading this thread, you would think that every classroom is a hotbed of infection. The measures we currently have in place are suppressing the virus.

Measures are inappropriate - the guidelines were drafted when the govt thought that droplets were the main spreader of the virus. They quietly amended the document after its publication but with no changes to procedures

Govt didn't advise mandatory masks (like the way it is for all retail shops which have far greater distancing) when it drafted its guidelines.

Govt assured us that contact tracing would be exemplary with quick turn around. They collapsed last week.

Govt gave precise updates on nursing homes and meat factories with regards to outbreaks. It's up to a Facebook group to keep track of that data as no one seems able to show how the dept is tracking the data.

All this group is doing is pointing out the massive hypocrisies in how someone is defined as a close contact, how measures are implemented, and how the govt deals in data. No one is calling for schools to be closed, rather that sensible measures in line with those on other workplace are taken to protect students abd staff, and by extension, the community.

The graph shows a massive increase. Dublin has had lockdowns measures for over a month now. Several counties similar measures. We have not seen any peak yet, despite several people guessing we have, each week.

History Queen

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I've no issue with increasing testing in schools. But the fact is schools being open is not causing the rapid uncontrolled spread of the virus that some seem to be fear. Reading this thread, you would think that every classroom is a hotbed of infection. The measures we currently have in place are suppressing the virus.

Well if we had the same contact tracing and testing afforded to schools as to wider society, we could prove if this is the case or not.

MerlinSouthDub

History Queen wrote: »

Well if we had the same contact tracing and testing afforded to schools as to wider society, we could prove if this is the case or not.

It is proven - cases are falling, schools are open.

khalessi

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It is proven - cases are falling, schools are open.

Interesting your buddy raind just pointed out numbers increasing iin 5-14 year olds on other thread and well done schools are open but are being treated differently re close contact status and testing to other sectors

History Queen

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It is proven - cases are falling, schools are open.

Give it over.

wirelessdude01

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It is proven - cases are falling, schools are open.

So does that mean we can call off the recruitment drive for testers and tracers? No need for any measures anymore.

8k71ps

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It is proven - cases are falling, schools are open.

Here lads we might as well give up with this whole test and trace thing, sure the cases are going down there's no point

MerlinSouthDub

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

So does that mean we can call off the recruitment drive for testers and tracers? No need for any measures anymore.

Didn't suggest that at all. We clearly need more tracers to make sure we have contingency in the system. I'm just glad that the current data is telling us that level 3 restrictions are enough to keep virus numbers under control, and allow the schools to stay open. We did not have that data until the last couple of weeks. We can now have more confidence in our approach, and any further actions that can be taken to improve matters should be taken. But it looks like we have a strong base to work off, and we are in a much better place that nearly every country in Europe.

wirelessdude01

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Didn't suggest that at all. We clearly need more tracers to make sure we have contingency in the system. I'm just glad that the current data is telling us that level 3 restrictions are enough to keep virus numbers under control, and allow the schools to stay open. We did not have that data until the last couple of weeks. We can now have more confidence in our approach, and any further actions that can be taken to improve matters should be taken. But it looks like we have a strong base to work off, and we are in a much better place that nearly every country in Europe.

So then if that is the case there is also no need for all these new public health teams they claim to be putting in place to deal with issues in schools. If no issues then no need.

blanch152

khalessi wrote: »

Yet again, someone ignoring that no one wants schools closed. What is requested is transparency, proper testing and tracing and a proper definition of what is a close contact in a classroom and an honest reporting on schools instead of the "all is fine nothing to see here approach.

Again, why prioritise testing resources on schools when the positivity rate in schools is so low? Either we are testing the wrong people in schools or we are testing too many.

The evidence suggests that the virus is not spreading in school settings. It is spreading in more uncontrolled environments. That is where the public health focus should be.

wirelessdude01

blanch152 wrote: »

Again, why prioritise testing resources on schools when the positivity rate in schools is so low? Either we are testing the wrong people in schools or we are testing too many.

The evidence suggests that the virus is not spreading in school settings. It is spreading in more uncontrolled environments. That is where the public health focus should be.

Conditions in schools will be changing now. Less time outside. Also I can guess that there will also be less ventilation in alot of classrooms as the weather gets colder and wetter.
There is a reason why they are assigning dedicated public health teams in all the region's with responsibility for schools.

irishblessing

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Didn't suggest that at all. We clearly need more tracers to make sure we have contingency in the system. I'm just glad that the current data is telling us that level 3 restrictions are enough to keep virus numbers under control, and allow the schools to stay open. We did not have that data until the last couple of weeks. We can now have more confidence in our approach, and any further actions that can be taken to improve matters should be taken. But it looks like we have a strong base to work off, and we are in a much better place that nearly every country in Europe.

Good to see you know more than Tony Holohan, who has just said the numbers/trend can't prove anything yet. I posted it earlier today.

meeeeh

irishblessing wrote: »

Good to see you know more than Tony Holohan, who has just said the numbers/trend can't prove anything yet. I posted it earlier today.

Since we listen to everything Tony Holohan says:

The chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan has said he does not anticipate the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) advising the Government not to reopen schools at the end of the midterm break.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/nphet-not-anticipating-advising-against-schools-reopening-after-midterm-1.4393146

irishblessing

blanch152 wrote: »

Again, why prioritise testing resources on schools when the positivity rate in schools is so low? Either we are testing the wrong people in schools or we are testing too many.

The evidence suggests that the virus is not spreading in school settings. It is spreading in more uncontrolled environments. That is where the public health focus should be.

So we're right back at the beginning of today's argument about the positivity rate from unreliable data like one big circle jerk from hell? Can you at least give that argument 24 hours rest before regurgitating it?

There is a lot of evidence actually, here and in other large studies done that schools contribute to spread. I don't believe even the Irish government have said it's not spreading there, yet you're going to make that unbelievable claim after 1,000 cases, and the outbreaks which doubled each week?

Schools, especially primary are not controlled environments.
-Full of people aged 10 or over who can contract and spread the virus at least as well as adults do.
-They aren't wearing masks.
-Social distancing isn't often possible as we have one of the largest class sizes in Europe crowded in small classrooms. Hence the language in the DES guidelines for re-opening of "where possible." The question is, where IS it possible?
-Lack of adequate ppe
-Children moving all over the classroom and on top of each other on the yard
-Unmasked parents talking into each other's faces in the carpark every single day
-Moving the goal posts of what constitutes a close contact
-Uneven application of that definition
-Not widely or "mass testing" when positive cases are found in said cramped room with no social distancing
-A collapsed test and trace system
-Principals being left to make decisions as HSE unreachable
-Dangerous sanitiser recall

I think that's most the issues. Now tell me what about any of that shít show lends to a "controlled environment."

irishblessing

meeeeh wrote: »

Since we listen to everything Tony Holohan says:



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/nphet-not-anticipating-advising-against-schools-reopening-after-midterm-1.4393146

Everybody has read that article by now.

I don't agree with that decision. Dr. Fauci of a higher ranking/more experience disagrees with him. The government have also (and lets not forget MelbourneMan) asserted that the decisions being made are economical in nature too. Well I think health comes first and the economy doesn't have to be sacrificed if our government decided to be forward thinking and put in the hard work to do more to make our schools safer so that our kids and their families can be safer too. Do you not agree?

meeeeh

irishblessing wrote: »

I think that's most the issues. Now tell me what about any of that shít show lends to a "controlled environment."

Well Tony Holohan thinks it is controlled or he would recommend call for closure of schools and since What Tony Holohan says should be taken at face value we can dismiss your argument.

Or are you using different standards for other people's arguments and your copy paste stuff that you think will become more valid more you repeat it.

khalessi

blanch152 wrote: »

Again, why prioritise testing resources on schools when the positivity rate in schools is so low? Either we are testing the wrong people in schools or we are testing too many.

The evidence suggests that the virus is not spreading in school settings. It is spreading in more uncontrolled environments. That is where the public health focus should be.

Well as raind said on the main thred numbers are going up in 5-14 year olds, be nice to know officially where they are coming from.

Also would be nice if the same testing procedures were applied throughout all sectors. Chidlren are not the only people in schools, they are workplaces.

irishblessing

meeeeh wrote: »

Well Tony Holohan thinks it is controlled or he would recommend call for closure of schools and since What Tony Holohan says should be taken at face value we can dismiss your argument.

Or are you using different standards for other people's arguments and your copy paste stuff that you think will become more valid more you repeat it.

Like he was listened to when he/NPHET first recommended level 5 shutdown and it was ignored? On balance of "economy and livelihoods?" So I'm not the only one who disagrees with his conclusions. Doesn't mean he doesn't know what he's doing, but there are agendas and coverups of inadequacies.

And let's not forget how the cervical test crises was handled while he was in charge.

meeeeh

irishblessing wrote: »

Like he was listened to when he/NPHET first recommended level 5 shutdown and it was ignored? On balance of "economy and livelihoods?" So I'm not the only one who disagrees with him.

And let's not forget how the cervical test crises was handled while he was in charge.

So should we then also disregard this:

Good to see you know more than Tony Holohan, who has just said the numbers/trend can't prove anything yet. I posted it earlier today.

Tell me do you think you know more than Dr. Holohan?

irishblessing

meeeeh wrote: »

So should we then also disregard this:



Tell me do you think you know more than Dr. Holohan?

I refer you to my earlier comment:

"Doesn't mean he doesn't know what he's doing, but there are agendas and coverups of inadequacies."

I think Dr. Fauci knows more, and is agenda/f-k up free as far as his comments on Ireland goes, just to offer that up.

is_that_so

Result of ASTI teachers' ballot known today

https://www.irishtimes.com/result-of-second-level-teachers-strike-ballot-expected-on-wednesday-afternoon-1.4393308

irishblessing

is_that_so wrote: »

Result of ASTI teachers' ballot known today

https://www.irishtimes.com/result-of-second-level-teachers-strike-ballot-expected-on-wednesday-afternoon-1.4393308

I hope they are able to get the action they and we all deserve to have in place. It shouldn't take a ballot to do the right thing.