Trump vs Biden 2020, Ultimate battle for the fate of our universe (pt 3)Read OP 01/11

Eric Cartman

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

odd that you would pick a poll from a pollster that is poorly rated by fivethirtyeight. especially when that is the only poll that shows them that close. every other poll has biden by 5 or 6

odd that Nate silver who was the darling child of the polling world got absolutely trounced by trafalgars methodology the last time around would have them rated lowly..

gmisk

Eric Cartman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1316000421085933568?s=20

its not that far out according to the group who got it right the last time. They're calling Michigan for trump already. Its why I said 'might'

That is a seriously biased account...just look at what they are tweeting and retweeting etc...it includes PACs that back Trump regularly.

Also a grown man regularly wearing a dickie bow.....that guy is like a Poundshop Tucker ("he can't literally be believed") Carlson

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

duploelabs wrote: »

PA where Biden leads by 20??

lol :pac:

timsey tiger

Eric Cartman wrote: »

odd that Nate silver who was the darling child of the polling world got absolutely trounced by trafalgars methodology the last time around would have them rated lowly..

How did they do in 2018?

duploelabs

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

lol :pac:

Quoting the posted BBC polls, have you an issue now with another news outlet that doesn't confirm your views?

gmisk

duploelabs wrote: »

PA where Biden leads by 20??

I can't see any poll where he leads by anything like that in PA. The BBC has him up by 3.8%.
Other polls have him up by 4-8 percent roughly

Tippex

stefanovich wrote: »

Biden left his ID and a crack pipe in a rental car one time.

So what if he did?
He is a private US citizen with his own mind. What has any of that got to do with his Dad running for president?
Hunter Biden is not running for president.
You make it sound as if every facet of someones family is not whiter than white they should not be running for president which is just ridiculous Trumps family have their demons too.

Kermit.de.frog

Eric Cartman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1316000421085933568?s=20

its not that far out according to the group who got it right the last time. They're calling Michigan for trump already. Its why I said 'might'

That is a right wing republican polling group

It's not going to be close. Biden will be the crystal clear winner without even counting the mail-ins.

Guys like you bath in the incompetence, vulgarity, ignorance and corruption of Trump.

You're his victims actually. He is a con-man.

He is going to get smashed by Biden and none of you will ever even have heard of Trump afterward. It will be like Nixon only far worse.

Nobody will admit they supported him.

Eric Cartman

duploelabs wrote: »

Quoting the posted BBC polls, have you an issue now with another news outlet that doesn't confirm your views?

no, polls are subjective, the methodology has to be looked at. Rasmussen don't do decent polls because the methodology is flawed, but often so is some university polling. Most polls are hitting different data sets and its always interesting to see many of them.

I get a lot of data from RCP who don't tend to present a bias and as the days draw closer and with the impact of the hunter Biden scandal, the gap is closing.

Im not backing a polling company 100% but I think trafalgar group will get it closer than say Mitchell research...

Eric Cartman

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That is a right wing republican polling group

It's not going to be close. Biden will be the crystal clear winner without even counting the mail-ins.

Guys like you bath in the incompetence, vulgarity, ignorance and corruption of Trump.

You're his victims actually. He is a con-man.

He is going to get smashed by Biden and none of you will ever even have heard of Trump afterward. It will be like Nixon only far worse.

Nobody will admit they supported him.

I'm going to save this post for November 3rd

im open to a Biden win but it won't be 'smashed' or 'crystal clear'

Graham

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I get a lot of data from RCP who don't tend to present a bias

Mostly Factual - Right-Center biased based on source selection that leans right according to media bias fact check.

Eric Cartman

Even this close, Biden is trailing where Clinton was in a few key states from 4 years ago, he's ahead of where Clinton was in some places but its the electoral college matters.

Graham

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Even this close, Biden is trailing where Clinton was in a few key states from 4 years ago, he's ahead of where Clinton was in some places but its the electoral college matters.

It's worth keeping in mind that most of the pollsters have adjusted their weighting since 2016

FiveThirtyEight have an interesting article:

What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020

FiveThirtyEight wrote in the run-up to the 2016 election, Donald Trump was always a normal polling error behind Hillary Clinton.

And that’s essentially what happened in 2016: Trump beat his polls by just a few points in just a few states. The presidential polls were, simply, not that off.

we contacted 21 well-known pollsters to find out how they adjusted their methodologies

one thing came up again and again in our interviews: Pollsters told us they were now weighting their samples by education, because one key takeaway from 2016 was just how important someone’s level of educational attainment was in predicting their vote.

the states with the biggest polling errors were not polled by high-quality pollsters in the final week of the campaign; if they had been, perhaps we’d have seen Trump’s win coming. By contrast, “there is more polling in battleground states this year, and that is especially true for some of the Upper Midwest states that proved decisive in 2016,”

Source

stefanovich

Tippex wrote: »

So what if he did?
He is a private US citizen with his own mind. What has any of that got to do with his Dad running for president?
Hunter Biden is not running for president.
You make it sound as if every facet of someones family is not whiter than white they should not be running for president which is just ridiculous Trumps family have their demons too.

It certainly does matter if he got the Burisma job because they know he can use his father's influence.

What qualified him for the role other than his father's job?

ohnonotgmail

stefanovich wrote: »

It certainly does matter if he got the Burisma job because they know he can use his father's influence.

What qualified him for the role other than his father's job?

you do know they have already investigated that, right? and found nothing. nothing.

Graham

duploelabs wrote: »

PA where Biden leads by 20??

PA has 20 electoral college votes.

Biden still has a healthy lead though according to the FiveThirtyEight poll of polls.

Biden +6.5%

Biden 50.6%
Trump 44.2%


(I assume rounding errors account for the 0.1% discrepancy).

Tippex

stefanovich wrote: »

It certainly does matter if he got the Burisma job because they know he can use his father's influence.

What qualified him for the role other than his father's job?

Leaving a crack pipe and ID in a rental car is what I was referring to stop changing the discussion. That has zero relevance to his father running for president stop making things up.

Tippex

stefanovich wrote: »

It certainly does matter if he got the Burisma job because they know he can use his father's influence.

What qualified him for the role other than his father's job?

Since you are so staunch on that and I am not disagreeing that he may not have the qualifications.

But can you answer me this?

What qualified Ivanka and Jared Kushner to the roles they have in the current administration outside of nepotism?

BTW I have no qualifications to be a CEO of a business yet I am does that mean I should not be a CEO of my own business?

Quin_Dub

Eric Cartman wrote: »

no, polls are subjective, the methodology has to be looked at. Rasmussen don't do decent polls because the methodology is flawed, but often so is some university polling. Most polls are hitting different data sets and its always interesting to see many of them.

I get a lot of data from RCP who don't tend to present a bias and as the days draw closer and with the impact of the hunter Biden scandal, the gap is closing.

Im not backing a polling company 100% but I think trafalgar group will get it closer than say Mitchell research...

Trafalgars "reputation problem" is down to the fact that they share very very little details of their methodology , they don't provide cross-tab data or anything like that.

They talk about having the "social adjustment" question in their polling - Basically they ask a question along the lines of "how do you think your neighbours are going to vote?" to trying a draw out the "shy" voter , but again they don't explain how they use the result of that question to adjust their results.

The story about "Trafalgar were the only ones to call 2016 right" is also slightly misleading.

They were the only ones that called Michigan for Trump , but they were about as accurate as everybody else in the other States. So their "Trump Voter whisperer" status is a little overblown.


All the pollsters made corrections to their process after 2016 and they were all pretty much on the money in 2018.

The New York Times run a daily poll tracker and one of the things they do is show a view of the polls with a "what if the polling is as wrong as it was in 2016" view



Based on current polling - Biden still has a comfortable EC win.

Obviously if the polling narrows, more States potentially come in to play.

Brian?

Eric Cartman wrote: »

under performing mail in balloting for Biden, trafalgar group polling and things like increasing support among black people for trump.

Why are you ignoring the most statistically robust model fivethirtyeight? Confirmation bias I assume.

Brian?

Eric Cartman wrote: »

odd that Nate silver who was the darling child of the polling world got absolutely trounced by trafalgars methodology the last time around would have them rated lowly..

No he didn't. That's complete nonsense.

Quin_Dub

Faugheen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1318282942762934272?s=21

He’s literally just said he’ll grant permits for explorations if they donate 25m to his campaign.

He really hasn’t learned a thing, has he?

stefanovich wrote: »

He literally didn’t. He is mocking Biden.

Which totally explains why Exxon felt the need to come out to explain that this was a thing that never happened

https://twitter.com/exxonmobil/status/1318324411146141701

Once again - When the President speaks , it has consequences..

Professor Moriarty

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Which totally explains why Exxon felt the need to come out to explain that this was a thing that never happened

https://twitter.com/exxonmobil/status/1318324411146141701

Once again - When the President speaks , it has consequences..

Trump and his cronies have upped the ante on lying. Rats, barrel, sinking ship.

Brian?

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Trafalgars "reputation problem" is down to the fact that they share very very little details of their methodology , they don't provide cross-tab data or anything like that.

They talk about having the "social adjustment" question in their polling - Basically they ask a question along the lines of "how do you think your neighbours are going to vote?" to trying a draw out the "shy" voter , but again they don't explain how they use the result of that question to adjust their results.

The story about "Trafalgar were the only ones to call 2016 right" is also slightly misleading.

They were the only ones that called Michigan for Trump , but they were about as accurate as everybody else in the other States. So their "Trump Voter whisperer" status is a little overblown.


All the pollsters made corrections to their process after 2016 and they were all pretty much on the money in 2018.

The New York Times run a daily poll tracker and one of the things they do is show a view of the polls with a "what if the polling is as wrong as it was in 2016" view



Based on current polling - Biden still has a comfortable EC win.

Obviously if the polling narrows, more States potentially come in to play.

I fully expected the polls to narrow by now, so did Nate Silver, but it isn't happening. Biden isn't really gaining either, but because the model was based on the polls narrowing closer to the election Biden's odds of winning are going up.

Trump can still win. But it'll be a surprise. Not a shock.

Phoebas

stefanovich wrote: »

What qualified him for the role other than his father's job?

What qualified the Yale educated lawyer and fund manager Hunter Biden for a board position!

stefanovich

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Which totally explains why Exxon felt the need to come out to explain that this was a thing that never happened

https://twitter.com/exxonmobil/status/1318324411146141701

Once again - When the President speaks , it has consequences..

When the President is selectively edited to take things out of context it has consequences.

MoonUnit75

Tippex wrote: »

Since you are so staunch on that and I am not disagreeing that he may not have the qualifications.

But can you answer me this?

What qualified Ivanka and Jared Kushner to the roles they have in the current administration outside of nepotism?

BTW I have no qualifications to be a CEO of a business yet I am does that mean I should not be a CEO of my own business?

There's no conflict of interest or interference with the relationship between private enterprise and the state with those examples though.

So far it seems Hunter Biden was given a high paid job at a credit card company while they were lobbying Joe Biden to help pass a bill that (as far as I can establish) would make it harder for people to declare bankruptcy. Joe voted for the bill.
Obama Aides Defend Bank’s Pay to Biden Son - New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/25/us/politics/25biden.html
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/middle-class-joe-cozied-up-to-credit-card-companies-and-made-filing-for-bankruptcy-harder

Joe Biden was given special responsibility for Iraq and his brother then wins a massive housing development deal in Iraq with no experience in the industry.
https://nypost.com/2019/10/15/joe-bidens-brother-and-son-have-a-long-history-of-profiting-off-his-name/

And then there's the Ukrainian gas company, where Joe has special responsibility, paying Hunter Biden $80,000 a month when he had no experience, qualifications or knowledge in the industry or of the Ukraine. He was getting in one month what an outside board member of Fortune 500 companies like Walmart pay board members every three months, with all the expertise and a strong record in the industry they expect.

China is the icing on the cake though.

Kermit.de.frog

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Which totally explains why Exxon felt the need to come out to explain that this was a thing that never happened

https://twitter.com/exxonmobil/status/1318324411146141701

Once again - When the President speaks , it has consequences..

lol

Exxon Mobil - For cleaner politics

Even the fossil fuel industry think Trump is a clown.

Tippex

MoonUnit75 wrote: »

There's no conflict of interest or interference with the relationship between private enterprise and the state with those examples though.

So far it seems Hunter Biden was given a high paid job at a credit card company while they were lobbying Joe Biden to help pass a bill that (as far as I can establish) would make it harder for people to declare bankruptcy. Joe voted for the bill.
Obama Aides Defend Bank’s Pay to Biden Son - New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/25/us/politics/25biden.html
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/middle-class-joe-cozied-up-to-credit-card-companies-and-made-filing-for-bankruptcy-harder

Joe Biden was given special responsibility for Iraq and his brother then wins a massive housing development deal in Iraq with no experience in the industry.
https://nypost.com/2019/10/15/joe-bidens-brother-and-son-have-a-long-history-of-profiting-off-his-name/

And then there's the Ukrainian gas company, where Joe has special responsibility, paying Hunter Biden $80,000 a month when he had no experience, qualifications or knowledge in the industry or of the Ukraine. He was getting in one month what an outside board member of Fortune 500 companies like Walmart pay board members every three months, with all the expertise and a strong record in the industry they expect.

China is the icing on the cake though.

I find these sort of answers intriguing and very similar to things that have gone on from both sides during interviews / debates (actually not just in America but in politics in general).

My whole post to stefanovich was

Since you are so staunch on that and I am not disagreeing that he may not have the qualifications.

But can you answer me this?

What qualified Ivanka and Jared Kushner to the roles they have in the current administration outside of nepotism?

BTW I have no qualifications to be a CEO of a business yet I am does that mean I should not be a CEO of my own business?

My question was specifically about Ivanka and Jared Kushner but you go on a complete tangent avoiding the question that was asked completely.

Rjd2

stefanovich wrote: »

When the President is selectively edited to take things out of context it has consequences.

Yep Trump is an abomination, but this clip was taken out of context hugely, but obviously a lot of the people who seen the initial viral Aaron Ruppar tweet live in echo chambers so the damage is done and why the company have to scramble to salvage the situation.

Trump does set himself up for this way to often though which is on him, needs to be more careful when speaking.