Trump vs Biden 2020, Ultimate battle for the fate of our universe (pt 3)Read OP 01/11

Pa ElGrande

Since deflect from the Bidens activities, would you defend Bertie?, why not go after Mitch McConnell, the Republican senate leader on the same basis?

What Hunter Biden Did Was Legal — And That’s the Problem
Peter Schweizer, Oct. 9, 2019

The Bidens are hardly alone. President Trump’s transportation secretary, Elaine Chao, and her husband, Senator Mitch McConnell, are being accused of having profited from their commercial ties to Beijing. In 2004, the two had a net worth of about $3.1 million, according to public disclosures. Three years later, the range was $3.1 million to $12.7 million. The next year, their net worth rocketed to $7.3 million to $33.1 million.

What changed? In 2008, Ms. Chao’s father, James Chao, gave the couple a “gift” of $5 million to $25 million (politicians are required to report money in ranges, not exact amounts). Certainly, their wealth has continued to grow.

source

hometruths

Phoebas wrote: »

That's not interesting at all. They are also just search terms.
They might indicate that people who search for 'change my vote' also search for 'most google searches', but that's about the size of it.

Fair enough, it's not interesting to you. We can agree to disagree.

Another trend I personally find interesting is the comparison of 'vote Biden' vs 'vote trump' over the past 30 days:




Trump is red, Biden blue.

Predictably enough the peak for both was at the time of the first debate, maybe less predictably Trump edged the volume.

You can see Trump searches are consistently higher than Biden searches.

We saw the same pattern with Hillary in 2016. And everybody dismissed it as nothing, saying "Look at the polls, Trump doesn't stand a chance".

Phoebas

That's really interesting.

But wait....
If you change the search terms ever so slightly to 'vote Donald trump' Vs 'vote Joe biden', you get a completely different result, where Biden crushes Trump.


https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=US&q=vote%20Joe%20Biden,vote%20Donald%20Trump

Oh well.. back to the drawing board.

hometruths

Phoebas wrote: »

That's really interesting.

But wait....
If you change the search terms ever so slightly to 'vote Donald trump' Vs 'vote Joe biden', you get a completely different result, where Biden crushes Trump.


https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=US&q=vote%20Joe%20Biden,vote%20Donald%20Trump

Oh well.. back to the drawing board.

Fair enough, nothing to see in google trends.

What is it that you think I am trying to draw on this board?

Faugheen

Watching the SNL cold open here, and Jim Carrey playing Biden is excellent but they have it bang on the money.

“A plan for coronavirus? You don’t even have a plan for me. First I’m creepy, then I’m sleepy, then I have dementia and now I’m a criminal mastermind. Which is it?”

That is actually the most accurate description of the Trump campaign. No plans for anything, including Biden.

MoonUnit75

This is what happens if you compare all the terms, ‘vote Trump’, ‘vote Biden’, ‘vote Donald Trump’, ‘vote Joe Biden.

Phoebas

Phoebas wrote: »

They linked to a data source that they (and you) dont understand.
Here's what they claimed about it:



Every search term hits 100pct on that chart, because it is a chart of the count of hits of that term compared across days.

See?
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2020-10-17T05%202020-10-24T00&geo=US&q=How%20to%20understand%20data


Why are you people so ****ing gullible??

I'm loving that he's conveniently ignoring this post which indicates it could have hit any number of hits. :P

Graham

MoonUnit75 wrote: »

This is what happens if you compare all the terms, ‘vote Trump’, ‘vote Biden’, ‘vote Donald Trump’, ‘vote Joe Biden.

It would be interesting to see how many searches we're actually talking about.

You'd expect most of the electorate already know how to vote without having to Google it first.

cnocbui

Step back and look at the big picture. The US has already lost the election. After 4 years of Trump presidency it's a close race?

Better learn Mandarin so you can converse with your new Uberlords. I really didn't think communism would win.

s1ippy

MoonUnit75 wrote: »

This is what happens if you compare all the terms, ‘vote Trump’, ‘vote Biden’, ‘vote Donald Trump’, ‘vote Joe Biden.

Probably Trump's own campaign doing qualitative research on the search engine returns.

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

It would be interesting to see how many searches we're actually talking about.

You'd expect most of the electorate already know how to vote without having to Google it first.

I agree that most of electorate would not be googling for info on which way to vote.

The ones that do are most likely to be undecided/fence sitters/willing to change minds.

These are the voters that will decide the election which is why I think the google trends are interesting.

Eric Cartman

The poll averages nationally are a lot higher for biden but when you drill down to battlegrounds he’s not averaging too far ahead. I still think trump will win , despite the claimed method change, the polling is still decidedly unable to predict shy trump votes.

Phoebas

schmittel wrote: »

Fair enough, nothing to see in google trends.

What is it that you think I am trying to draw on this board?

There's plenty to see in Google Trends, but this just ain't it.

What is clear is that data can be used/misused to show what you want it to show - just pick a result you want and then look for the data that supports that. That's a game that can be played as nauseam (^^ as we can see it's still being played).

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

These are the voters that will decide the election which is why I think the google trends are interesting.

The ones that don't know how to vote?

Eric, can you show proof of shy Trump voters? Generally Biden is outside of the margin of error on battleground states btw. Real question is which way the likes of Florida will go but Biden doesn't need florida to win.

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

The ones that don't know how to vote?

The ones that have not yet decided who to vote for.

Faugheen

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Eric, can you show proof of shy Trump voters? Generally Biden is outside of the margin of error on battleground states btw. Real question is which way the likes of Florida will go but Biden doesn't need florida to win.

Exactly this.

And if Biden wins Florida, there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Trump is in anyway competitive in the rust belt. If Trump wins in Florida he has a fighting chance.

Biden has 232 EC votes from Hillary. None of them are going to change. Biden needs only the rust belt to win, the average lead there right now is +6.6. It’s easy to say ‘ooo look at all the battlegrounds’ when Biden doesn’t need all of them. The ones he does need, his lead is almost double.

Phoebas

Deleted User wrote: »

Eric, can you show proof of shy Trump voters? Generally Biden is outside of the margin of error on battleground states btw. Real question is which way the likes of Florida will go but Biden doesn't need florida to win.

It's very difficult to find 'shy' voters (because they're shy), but some of the polling, rather than simply asking which candidate you are going to vote for, will ask them what they believe in relation to the key issues. Someone who might not want to say his name out loud, might be willing to open up on the issues that are important to them.
There are some voters with a deep mistrust of institutions, and might be more likely to be Trump supporters, won't engage at all with pollsters.

Shy voters is a thing, but likely to be much less of a thing for an incumbent President than it was for the unorthodox 'outsider' in 2016

MoonUnit75

Phoebas wrote: »

It's very difficult to find 'shy' voters (because they're shy), but some of the polling, rather than simply asking which candidate you are going to vote for, will ask them what they believe in relation to the key issues. Someone who might not want to say his name out loud, might be willing to open up on the issues that are important to them.
There are some voters with a deep mistrust of institutions, and might be more likely to be Trump supporters, won't engage at all with pollsters.

Shy voters is a thing, but likely to be much less of a thing for an incumbent President than it was for the unorthodox 'outsider' in 2016

Yep, especially with the move to greater online polling. With these you will get hardcore Biden voters, hardcore Trump voters and a sampling of 'agreeable' people who are willing to give their time for filling out an online survey. My feeling on this is that agreeable people will relate more to Biden than Trump.

astrofool

Eric Cartman wrote: »

The poll averages nationally are a lot higher for biden but when you drill down to battlegrounds he’s not averaging too far ahead. I still think trump will win , despite the claimed method change, the polling is still decidedly unable to predict shy trump votes.

I still go back to what I said 4 weeks ago after going through the battleground states, if Biden takes Wisconsin it's over for Trump. Not a huge amount has changed since then (which is a worry for Trump).

Do expect a "surprise" from the Trump side, don't expect it to be that credible, do expect the usual crowd to insist it changes everything.

I'd also expect everything about Hunter Biden to disappear after November 4th, regardless of who wins.

I also don't think people realise what the polls do for politicians, they drive all the decision making, where the rallies are to be held, where to spend advertising, last time Hillarys strategy was also based on what the polls are saying, and if you watch what Trump and Biden are doing, it's all based on the polling numbers and demographics they're going after, Trump calling himself Lincoln wasn't by mistake, he's looking at those who hold their nose to vote for him, and making a comparison to someone they would vote for to make it easier to accept. The campaign teams don't go by anecdotes and feelings (though publicly they will always say the polls are wrong if not in their favour), Brexit (polling was very close) and Trump (polling a bit further out, but narrowed in the last few days) were surprises for even those who won (shown by lack of planning for it afterwards), showing they were believing the polls as well.

What's telling is that privately Trump himself has been saying the senate is at risk, I don't see a Trump win with a Senate loss possible, so it shows he's not that confident himself. Last time however, the same things were coming out, with the GOP expecting their own blood bath, and we know how that turned out. It ain't over till the fat man sings, on the way out of the rose garden.

The_Brood

Absolutely insane, HBO-level stuff coming out about Hunter Biden. Either there is mass doctoring of photos and videos going on, or that family ain't one lick better than the Trumps.

biko

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

And your point is?

Liberals need to stop telling people what they can and cannot do because of the colour of their skin.
First it was Joe and now Chelsea.
Maybe some racism is more accepted.

Timberrrrrrrr

biko wrote: »

Liberals need to stop telling people what they can and cannot do because of their colour of their skin.
First it was Joe and now Chelsea.
Maybe some racism is more accepted.

Liberals?? Or a liberal woman (who is she?)

Do you think she will make millions of people change their minds affect the election outcome?

Cody montana

The_Brood wrote: »

Absolutely insane, HBO-level stuff coming out about Hunter Biden. Either there is mass doctoring of photos and videos going on, or that family ain't one lick better than the Trumps.

Do you think he should drop out of the race?

Phoebas

Eric Cartman wrote: »

... the polling is still decidedly unable to predict shy trump votes.

If it was a very tight race then Biden might be worried by shy Trump voters, but Biden is ahead in pretty much all of the battleground states, often way outside the margin of error.

It's hard looking at the map to see any combination that gives this to Trump. You'd need something else to happen at this late stage to dramatically tighten the numbers.

astrofool

The_Brood wrote: »

Absolutely insane, HBO-level stuff coming out about Hunter Biden. Either there is mass doctoring of photos and videos going on, or that family ain't one lick better than the Trumps.

This is all just a ploy to try and drag the Bidens down to Trumps level, what you should be worried about is:

a) how sh*tty the Trumps are and the level they're trying to drag the Bidens down to (unsuccessfully so far)
b) the timing of these "revelations" (and lack of time to investigate tem properly) given how handy they would have been for Trump during the impeachment trial
c) convenient lack of examinable evidence, despite the evidence being the easiest to be examined.

The_Brood

Cody montana wrote: »

Do you think he should drop out of the race?

I think Americans are screwed either way, and the biggest fools are those who have any hope and trust in these systems. Every new election they think they select the opposite of the sham that failed them last, but their new choice is always a two-faced liar or ends up a failure regarding his policies.

MoonUnit75

Cody montana wrote: »

Do you think he should drop out of the race?

I heard Giuliani is already considering dropping out.

biko

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Liberals?? Or a liberal woman (who is she?)

Do you think she will make millions of people change their minds affect the election outcome?

You know you can just google people yeah?
Why does it matter to you if she has a large or a small audience?
Is it somehow less racist then? Do you have nuances of racism?

Can we assume you think it's ok to tell Curtis Jackson he shouldn't support Trump because he is black?

Gruffalux

“To rear one drug-addled, sex-addicted child may be regarded as a misfortune; to rear two looks like carelessness.” ~ Not Oscar Wilde