Trump vs Biden 2020, Ultimate battle for the fate of our universe (pt 3)Read OP 01/11

paleoperson

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

saying a source is anonymous does not mean the reporter doesn't know who they are. it means the source does not want to be publicly named.

Right, so the reporter then is essentially the source. The reporter is the one verifying the information. It doesn't matter whether he had one or three people telling him it, it doesn't matter whether he read something he can't reveal or not, all that matters is he is willing to put his own name to it as being reliable, ie. he is the source.

Overheal

Danzy wrote: »

Targetsmart early voting analysis. Far as I know they are Democrat run.

Your post doesn't contradict mine.

Are you ever going to provide links to anything?

That asserted without evidence is dismissed without evidence.

Graham

Danzy wrote: »

Your post doesn't contradict mine.

It does however have a source.

So far you've posted nothing to support either of your claims.

Overheal

paleoperson wrote: »

Right, so the reporter then is essentially the source. The reporter is the one verifying the information. It doesn't matter whether he had one or three people telling him it, it doesn't matter whether he read something he can't reveal or not, all that matters is he is willing to put his own name to it as being reliable, ie. he is the source.

Which is more than we can say of the person who wrote the NYP's laptop story.

https://flipboard.com/@dailysoundnfury/ny-post-reporters-refused-to-have-bylines-on-biden-laptop-story-even-fox-news-r/a--O7H2qVcSNakMl4_fKpu8Q%3Aa%3A2578957754-76bdac1951%2Fdailysoundandfury.com

If the journalist and the paper are willing to put their names to it and stake their professions on it, I'm willing to accept their reporting with the adequate grain of salt, especially given that it's a report of something that could happen and is not guaranteed to happen; also, simply reporting something like that could change the outcome (Thank Schrodinger).

Danzy

Graham wrote: »

It does however have a source.

So far you've posted nothing to support either of your claims.

I gave a source. Targetsmart.

ohnonotgmail

paleoperson wrote: »

Right, so the reporter then is essentially the source. The reporter is the one verifying the information. It doesn't matter whether he had one or three people telling him it, it doesn't matter whether he read something he can't reveal or not, all that matters is he is willing to put his own name to it as being reliable, ie. he is the source.

no, the person who told them is the source. it isn't that hard to understand.

Overheal

Danzy wrote: »

I gave a source. Targetsmart.

https://targetsmart.com/

Help us out with pulling your teeth here please, boss.

Eric Cartman

Deleted User wrote: »

In fairness, we've all seen you push claims of voter fraud etc but never once have you raised concerns about efforts to suppress voters.

no we haven't , aside from my comment about being suspicious of PA postal voting arriving after the third in the case that trump wins with PA putting him over the line. I have not suggested any fraud is or will be engaged in.

infect so much so I actually pointed out to you that I don't want to hear a peep about postal vote fraud : https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114688454&postcount=2776

Danzy

Overheal wrote: »

https://targetsmart.com/

Help us out with pulling your teeth here please, boss.

It's a very well known Democratic party resource, respected by all sides

Google target early targetsmart

Edit: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/


I thought ye lads were interested in the election.

Graham

Danzy wrote: »

Black voting, as a % of total, is down on 2016 across America.

Danzy wrote: »

Targetsmart early voting analysis. Far as I know they are Democrat run.

2016 - 4,146,138
2018 - 3,237,071
2020 - 7,081,167

Source: targetearly by targetsmart
National 2020 General Election Early & Absentee Vote Report
Last update: Nov 1, 2020, 8:33:19 PM Greenwich Mean Time

Carfacemandog

Danzy wrote: »

Targetsmart early voting analysis. Far as I know they are Democrat run.

Your post doesn't contradict mine.

So post the link to the article of theirs that states this, then.

When I looked it up all I found was that black voting is up significantly in Georgia and north Carolina.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27F36Z
https://targetsmart.com/targetsmart-launches-dashboard-for-early-vote-vote-by-mail-data/

Cheerful Spring2

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Interesting few days ahead

I predict a few brown trouser moments for Democrats between now and Wednesday

The Biden campaign team looking over the early percentages of voting done and concluded here. They were hoping the percentages be higher for them by the weekend. Some quiet alarms are all already going off here, but they're trying to not panic yet.

Democrats advising people to social distance strongly and lack of campaigning door to door may end up being their downfall. Republican voters are more likely to wait in lines and vote in person. This feels again like a repeat of 2016 a unawareness of what happening on the ground. Hilary and her team never imagined the blue states would swing to Trump, seems the Biden team taken it for granted the state polls and media right and they don't need to do anything, already won.

paleoperson

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

no, the person who told them is the source. it isn't that hard to understand.

Why are they the source? Why isn't the person they spoke to or heard the source then?

You'll end up saying Trump is the source lol. The source is the person willing to put their name to it.

Danzy

Graham wrote: »

2016 - 4,146,138
2018 - 3,237,071
2020 - 7,081,167

Source: targetearly by targetsmart
National 2020 General Election Early & Absentee Vote Report
Last update: Nov 1, 2020, 8:33:19 PM Greenwich Mean Time

Reread my post. How does that contradict it??

ohnonotgmail

paleoperson wrote: »

Why are they the source? Why isn't the person they spoke to or heard the source then?

You'll end up saying Trump is the source lol. The source is the person willing to put their name to it.

You're talking nonsense. again.

Himpy5

Danzy wrote: »

Black voting, as a % of total, is down on 2016 across America. In Florida Doubt it would be enough to overcome the Latino Trump vote which is very big, looking like 50%.

Why would anyone black vote for Biden? I know a few in a.Erica and they are redpilled.
Either won't vote or vote for Trump.

Biden and Harris have always been antiblack.

Himpy5

schmittel wrote: »

Do we know if that’s it’s now for polls or are more expected?

Polls are useless in this situation
Trump support hates pollsters.
They ignore them or lie to them on purpose

And rightly so imo

Graham

Danzy wrote: »

Black voting, as a % of total, is down on 2016 across America. In Florida Doubt it would be enough to overcome the Latino Trump vote which is very big, looking like 50%.

Danzy wrote: »

Reread my post. How does that contradict it??

Sorry, lets look at Florida specifically

Early votes:

2016 - 854,008
2018 - 692,681
2020 - 1,024,917

Democrat

2016 - 3,126,066
2018 - 2,350,705
2020 - 3,726,009

Source Targetearly Targesmart
FL 2020 General Election Early & Absentee Vote Report
Last update: Nov 1, 2020, 8:33:19 PM Greenwich Mean Time

Feel free to present your own data.

Carfacemandog

Danzy wrote: »

Reread my post. How does that contradict it??

Post your link from Targetsmart to support your claim that "Black voting, as a % of total, is down on 2016 across America."

Danzy

Graham wrote: »

Sorry, lets look at Florida specifically

Early votes:

2016 - 854,008
2018 - 692,681
2020 - 1,024,917

Democrat

2016 - 3,126,066
2018 - 2,350,705
2020 - 3,726,009

Source Targetearly Targesmart
FL 2020 General Election Early & Absentee Vote Report
Last update: Nov 1, 2020, 8:33:19 PM Greenwich Mean Time

Feel free to present your own data.

It shows a .7% drop in Florida. As I said reread my post.

AllForIt

Puting Covid as an explanation out of the equation I read higher than usual pre election day voting as a significant positive for Trump coupled with increased numbers of people registering as Republicans.

I think the only reason Biden has been so ahead in the polls previosly is because of anti-Trump sentiment but this has been diminishing in the last couple of weeks or so. Also I don't see 'enthusiastic' voting ever being spurred on by a desire to get someone out - only to get someone in for their own qualities and I see no enthusiasm for Biden on that scale, even Biden supporters know he's pretty average.

I think Trump will win and I think the overall picture of how all this pans will be quite similar to last time.

Eric Cartman

AllForIt wrote: »

Puting Covid as an explanation out of the equation I read higher than usual pre election day voting as a significant positive for Trump coupled with increased numbers of people registering as Republicans.

I think the only reason Biden has been so ahead in the polls previosly is because of anti-Trump sentiment but this has been diminishing in the last couple of weeks or so. Also I don't see 'enthusiastic' voting ever being spurred on by a desire to get someone out - only to get someone in for their own qualities and I see no enthusiasm for Biden on that scale, even Biden supporters know he's pretty average.

I think Trump will win and I think the overall picture of how all this pans will be quite similar to last time.

The real upset comes on the day. Due to covid fears and much lower levels of enthusiasm you're going to have terrible dem voter turnout on the 3rd. Biden has to get all of his wins from postal and early voting because the hours long queues on the 3rd are in most part going to be ticking the trump box.

Eric Cartman

https://twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1322986322135568393?s=20

where are you Joe...

Danzy

Carfacemandog wrote: »

Post your link from Targetsmart to support your claim that "Black voting, as a % of total, is down on 2016 across America."

A 1.1% drop from 9.4 to 8.3.

I presume ye can see the same.

[url]Https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=National&demo=Race + Education&demo_val=All[/url]

It's a very clear interfaces.

Graham

AllForIt wrote: »

I don't see 'enthusiastic' voting ever being spurred on by a desire to get someone out

welcome to 2020, it's a whole new world.

That's not facetious, never have I seen so much enthusiasm to see a sitting president removed from office.

Danzy

Carfacemandog wrote: »

Post your link from Targetsmart to support your claim that "Black voting, as a % of total, is down on 2016 across America."

A 1.1% drop from 9.4 to 8.3.

I presume ye can see the same.

[url]Https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=National&demo=Race + Education&demo_val=All[/url]

It's a very clear interfaces.

Please reread the original post and look at the data with regard to that, not other metrics.

vojiwox

Eric Cartman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1322986322135568393?s=20

where are you Joe...

He was in Minnesota

Overheal

Graham wrote: »

Sorry, lets look at Florida specifically

Early votes:

2016 - 854,008
2018 - 692,681
2020 - 1,024,917

Democrat

2016 - 3,126,066
2018 - 2,350,705
2020 - 3,726,009

Source Targetearly Targesmart
FL 2020 General Election Early & Absentee Vote Report
Last update: Nov 1, 2020, 8:33:19 PM Greenwich Mean Time

Feel free to present your own data.

Danzy wrote: »

It shows a .7% drop in Florida. As I said reread my post.

OK I think I see your confusion.

Early voting according to TargetSmart, Florida, by Race+Education (only Whites are broken down by college and non-college, #privilege):

African American voters as a percentage of 100% of early and absentee votes cast:


2016: 13.4%
2018: 13.8%
2020: 12.7%

... However, you are not taking into account the number of votes being cast (see Graham's post)

Coupling the early voting totals and the percentages we have the following estimate for number of African American early and absentee ballots in the state of Florida:

2016: 114,437
2018: 95,590
2020: 130,164

Ergo, there are clearly more African American early and absentee votes cast in 2020 than in either 2018 or 2016.

Phoebas

Eric Cartman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1322986322135568393?s=20

where are you Joe...

That was Minnesota. What's up with you guys that you never even try to get your facts straight?

Carfacemandog

Danzy wrote: »

Edit: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

Thanks for editing that in, though I'm not sure it's as promising for trum pas you made out - the black percentage is down 1.1% but that is offset by the Asian vote (where Trump is also behind Biden massively) raising by 0.9%.

Much, much more worrying for Trump here is that the non college educated white vote, which was his absolute bread and butter in 2016, is down a whopping 4.9% as a total of the voters. The data in your link reads worse for him than it does for Biden.