Trump vs Biden 2020, Ultimate battle for the fate of our universe (pt 3)Read OP 01/11

Overheal

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Trump supporter is actually a fascinating specimen all things considered.

first 2 videos are a laugh, the 3rd is actually enraging and scary.

PropJoe10

Cody montana wrote: »

Is Clinton running or something?

Nah, just living rent-free in Don's head for the past 4 years. He is totally deranged.

Cody montana

NEW: White House blocked sweeping CDC order requiring masks on all forms of public and commercial transportation in the U.S. - NYT

eagle eye

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

The Trump supporter is actually a fascinating specimen all things considered.

Is there an intelligent supporter of Trump who hasn't an agenda that makes him good for them?

1990sman

just as many dumbo videos for the opposition campaign tho. both the same really.

Tell me how

Second debate cancelled.

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1314758577723187200

I would bet the original 3rd debate won't happen either.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1314297485318217728

Wanderer78

Tell me how wrote:

Second debate cancelled.

That's a pity, I love listening to trumps brilliance

Overheal

Jaime Harrison v Lindsey Graham Debate 2 became 2x ~30 min town halls. The drama why the debate was canceled/reformatted is explained at the head of the broadcast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K39Emjp4wJ0

In 2014 Graham won by 17 points - I don't remember ever hearing about Brad Hutto (his opponent at the time), I never heard about debates. There is such a different awareness in this election and this is the 2nd debate/forum with national attention. I think Graham is done this election and Harrison sounds like great Senator material.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

nolivesmatter wrote: »

I think people are more anti-Trump than pro-Biden/Harris.

Yeah, I think this is very true.

And also likely to be very important in the voting.

There is nothing particularly special or exceptional about Biden as a candidate. He is a bog standard run of the mill career politician. (Something millions of American voters dislike with considerable passion these days!)

His best selling point really, among many willing to vote for him, is that he's not Donald Trump. Hence why his party have been much more focused on their 'anti-trump' message, rather than their 'pro-biden' message.

He doesn't have Trump's populist appeal. Whether people like it or not, that is going to be a crucial factor in this election. That's why the polls can be so misleading. There is a particular demographic of voters out there, that Biden simply does not have access to... and the pollsters, by and large, don't either.

MadYaker

Biden is ten points clear in almost every poll with about 3 weeks to go. The organisations doing the polling sometimes get it slightly wrong. There is no way they are all missing the mark by ten percentage points.

francois

Tell me how wrote: »

Second debate cancelled.

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1314758577723187200

I would bet the original 3rd debate won't happen either.

#chickenTrump trending

Overheal

I think in this debate Graham gave Harrison voters a reason to GOTV when he reminded everyone that if Graham loses there's a chance Bernie Sanders would be named chair of the Senate Finance Cmte.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

MadYaker wrote: »

Biden is ten points clear in almost every poll with about 3 weeks to go. The organisations doing the polling sometimes get it slightly wrong. There is no way they are all missing the mark by ten percentage points.

"No way" ? Or just no way that we can accurately forecast?

I think you may be in for a big surprise.

Overheal

https://youtu.be/K39Emjp4wJ0?t=2649

SC US Senator Lindsey Graham: "If you’re a young African American, an immigrant you can go anywhere in this state. You just need to be conservative not liberal."

- What!

duploelabs

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Yeah, I think this is very true.

And also likely to be very important in the voting.

There is nothing particularly special or exceptional about Biden as a candidate. He is a bog standard run of the mill career politician. (Something millions of American voters dislike with considerable passion these days!)

His best selling point really, among many willing to vote for him, is that he's not Donald Trump. Hence why his party have been much more focused on their 'anti-trump' message, rather than their 'pro-biden' message.

He doesn't have Trump's populist appeal. Whether people like it or not, that is going to be a crucial factor in this election. That's why the polls can be so misleading. There is a particular demographic of voters out there, that Biden simply does not have access to... and the pollsters, by and large, don't either.

Biden does have popular appeal, as reflected in every single poll. He just doesn't attract the feverent glassy-eyed cultist who will believe anything their candidate says whilst shouting cultish mantras and swallowing ridiculous ideas like qanon or racial privilidge or anti-vaxx.
MOE and the level of undecideds is the big key to why the predictions were wrong in 2016, but not now in 2020 as Biden is well above the MOE and the undecideds are almost non-existent

Leroy42

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Yeah, I think this is very true.

And also likely to be very important in the voting.

There is nothing particularly special or exceptional about Biden as a candidate. He is a bog standard run of the mill career politician. (Something millions of American voters dislike with considerable passion these days!)

His best selling point really, among many willing to vote for him, is that he's not Donald Trump. Hence why his party have been much more focused on their 'anti-trump' message, rather than their 'pro-biden' message.

He doesn't have Trump's populist appeal. Whether people like it or not, that is going to be a crucial factor in this election. That's why the polls can be so misleading. There is a particular demographic of voters out there, that Biden simply does not have access to... and the pollsters, by and large, don't either.

Ah, we are back to the silent majority line.

There is no evidence of that. The results from 2018 gave a clear indication of where people were looking and Trump has nothing since to deal with their concerns.

Couple that with the very, and loud, support Trumps gets in all his rallies, Fox News, and very many right wing commentators, and the line that Trump supporters are somehow scared doesn't doesn't make sense.

timsey tiger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1314297485318217728

Judging from his skin colour I guess they must have tried the very bright light therapy either inside or outside the body.

Brian?

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

"No way" ? Or just no way that we can accurately forecast?

I think you may be in for a big surprise.

We can accurately forecast and usually get it right to within 2-3%. Even the worst margin of error gives Biden a 7% lead nationally and no path to 270 in the swing states.

Obviously there is time for this to change. But this wrong headed nonsense about polls meaning nothing had worn pretty thin at this point. You don't think the Trump campaign looks at polls?

I challenge you to find me a well respected poll where the result was outside the MOE. 2016 wasn't. Brexit wasn't.

sydthebeat

Biden at 2/5 in the betting. Drumpf at 15/8

Any trump supporters out there should be lapping up those odds

Leroy42

So now that Trump has pulled out of the debates, I assume that all those posters that were certain Biden couldn't handle Trump and would find a way to avoid the debates now accept that Trump is the real weaker candidate.

As Buttigieg said on Fox a few days ago, everyone has had to adjust. From home schooling children, WFH, Zoom meetings etc. But apparently the POTUS, who is actually infected rather than just being cautious, cannot and shouldn't have to adjust.

Nothing to do with his entire plan is to simply break the rules and continually interrupt Biden. He knew he would lose, and lose badly. He has no capacity for empathy, no ability to listen, so a town hall style debate was always going to be tricky for him. Remove his ability to act up and he has nothing.

Whilst refusing to debate is never a good look, on balance I think ot is the right call. He would be destroyed and so better to head to a rally where he can control everything and not have to answer anything. That won't win him new voters but it will avoid a possible drop in support.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Brian? wrote: »

We can accurately forecast and usually get it right to within 2-3%. Even the worst margin of error gives Biden a 7% lead nationally and no path to 270 in the swing states.

Obviously there is time for this to change. But this wrong headed nonsense about polls meaning nothing had worn pretty thin at this point. You don't think the Trump campaign looks at polls?

I challenge you to find me a well respected poll where the result was outside the MOE. 2016 wasn't. Brexit wasn't.

Anecdotal evidence on the ground, proved to be far more reliable than polling in the last election. And from the people I've been talking/listening to, it's looking very similar again this time.

I wouldn't go so far as to assume that the polls are deliberately biased, but there can be an unconscious bias involved.

Trump also drags in large numbers, from voter demographics that are very difficult if not impossible to factor into the polls. People with little or no historical voting activity etc. as polls are heavily skewed towards those individuals who are politically engaged. Many trump voters do not fit into that sort of category, as they are voting for trump precisely because he is seen as the anathema to the political establishment.

Then there's also the fact that possibly as much as 90% of people do not respond to pollsters, either by simply not answering their phone or just refusing to answer certain questions. How many of that 90% could be likely trump voters...? Impossible to say really. Again this goes back to polls being heavily biased towards people who are politically engaged. Many people likely to vote trump do not consider themselves part of the system, and are in fact actively voting against it by backing trump - as they see it anyway.

So no, I wouldn't completely discount the polls... but I'm not putting a huge amount of value/faith in them either.

In some states, I might actually put more emphasis on first time gun ownership rates for example, as a possibly more reliable metric at forecasting potential voting patterns. I have spoken to a few people, who watch stuff like that rather than blindly trusting the polls. But that's a matter of personal preference... I'm not suggesting something like that would be a bullet-proof methodology by any means.

km991148

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

I wouldn't go so far as to assume that the polls are deliberately biased, but there can be an unconscious bias involved.

Nonsense generalisation. Pollsters are interested in accuracy, it's how they make money. They've had a tough time over the last few years, but not because of bias.

Leroy42

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Anecdotal evidence on the ground, proved to be far more reliable than polling in the last election. And from the people I've been talking/listening to, it's looking very similar again this time.

I wouldn't go so far as to assume that the polls are deliberately biased, but there can be an unconscious bias involved.

Trump also drags in large numbers, from voter demographics that are very difficult if not impossible to factor into the polls. People with little or no historical voting activity etc. as polls are heavily skewed towards those individuals who are politically engaged. Many trump voters do not fit into that sort of category, as they are voting for trump precisely because he is seen as the anathema to the political establishment.

Then there's also the fact that possibly as much as 90% of people do not respond to pollsters, either by simply not answering their phone or just refusing to answer certain questions. How many of that 90% could be likely trump voters...? Impossible to say really. Again this goes back to polls being heavily biased towards people who are politically engaged. Many people likely to vote trump do not consider themselves part of the system, and are in fact actively voting against it by backing trump - as they see it anyway.

So no, I wouldn't completely discount the polls... but I'm not putting a huge amount of value/faith in them either.

In some states, I might actually put more emphasis on first time gun ownership rates for example, as a possibly more reliable metric at forecasting potential voting patterns. I have spoken to a few people, who watch stuff like that rather than blindly trusting the polls. But that's a matter of personal preference... I'm not suggesting something like that would be a bullet-proof methodology by an means.

You keep banging this drum yet the actuals don't back any of it up.

2016 the polls were correct, 2018 the polls were correct. If one understands what the poll result actually mean.

How big do you think this silent vote is? What basis is that on? Is it national or specific to certain regions. Do you think there is a silent Biden vote?

Trump drags in large numbers? How much was the vote impacted in 2016 over previous elections. What about 2018?

It's fine to believe there is a hidden vote, and you could be right, but have you anything to base it except for your friends agreeing with you?

Timberrrrrrrr

Leroy42 wrote: »

So now that Trump has pulled out of the debates, I assume that all those posters that were certain Biden couldn't handle Trump and would find a way to avoid the debates now accept that Trump is the real weaker candidate.

As Buttigieg said on Fox a few days ago, everyone has had to adjust. From home schooling children, WFH, Zoom meetings etc. But apparently the POTUS, who is actually infected rather than just being cautious, cannot and shouldn't have to adjust.

Nothing to do with his entire plan is to simply break the rules and continually interrupt Biden. He knew he would lose, and lose badly. He has no capacity for empathy, no ability to listen, so a town hall style debate was always going to be tricky for him. Remove his ability to act up and he has nothing.

Whilst refusing to debate is never a good look, on balance I think ot is the right call. He would be destroyed and so better to head to a rally where he can control everything and not have to answer anything. That won't win him new voters but it will avoid a possible drop in support.

Has this ever happened before? Has a presidential debate ever been cancelled?

I always said Yrump would get beaten in the first debate and would then find an excuse to cancel the next two but now its actually happening I'm still a little shocked.

So many of his zealots on here were claiming Biden wouldn't turn up or would cancel the debates, now we have Trump doing exactly that we get tumbleweed and cricket noises from them.

This is all Biden next to do for the next couple of weeks

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1314714747762335746?s=19

gmisk

Overheal wrote: »

Jaime Harrison v Lindsey Graham Debate 2 became 2x ~30 min town halls. The drama why the debate was canceled/reformatted is explained at the head of the broadcast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K39Emjp4wJ0

In 2014 Graham won by 17 points - I don't remember ever hearing about Brad Hutto (his opponent at the time), I never heard about debates. There is such a different awareness in this election and this is the 2nd debate/forum with national attention. I think Graham is done this election and Harrison sounds like great Senator material.

Is it not still incredibly tight? Any of the polls I saw recently were incredibly close, as in a toss up

Leroy42

afaik, Carter pulled out of a second debate, but did the 3rd scheduled one.

It is quite amazing that Trump has refused though. Remember that Trump is continually saying he is back in full health. Its because he thinks he is now immune and thus doesn't care about anyone else. He also had to find some way out of a townhall style which he knows he will be destroyed. Compare and contrast the two recent townhalls, Biden and Trump.

Even without Biden, Trump was going to lose. His only hope was to goad Biden into a mistake but the same tactics os Debate 1. That is even more remote possibility if they are virtual.

It shows a POTUS that is running scared, that knows he has nothing to offer, that has one trick only. A POTUS can is failing to adapt to the realities that everyone faces.

Its a terrible look, but I can understand the decision. He was onto a lower eithet way but this way he avoid yet another public disaster.

km991148

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Has this ever happened before? Has a presidential debate ever been cancelled?

I always said Yrump would get beaten in the first debate and would then find an excuse to cancel the next two but now its actually happening I'm still a little shocked.

So many of his zealots on here were claiming Biden wouldn't turn up or would cancel the debates, now we have Trump doing exactly that we get tumbleweed and cricket noises from them.

This is all Biden next to do for the next couple of weeks

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1314714747762335746?s=19

No no, you've got it all wrong. It's not because Trump is afraid, it's because we simply cannot trust* that pesky sneaky Biden with his staffers and autocues.

Trump is a hero and strong, not scared.



(Even although the 56%poll he was tweeting about has Biden down as most honest)

Timberrrrrrrr

Leroy42 wrote: »

afaik, Carter pulled out of a second debate, but did the 3rd scheduled one.

He pulled out because Graham refused a covid test. Can't blame Graham either after so many Republicans have tested positive.

alchemist33

Leroy42 wrote: »

So now that Trump has pulled out of the debates, I assume that all those posters that were certain Biden couldn't handle Trump and would find a way to avoid the debates now accept that Trump is the real weaker candidate.

As Buttigieg said on Fox a few days ago, everyone has had to adjust. From home schooling children, WFH, Zoom meetings etc. But apparently the POTUS, who is actually infected rather than just being cautious, cannot and shouldn't have to adjust.

Nothing to do with his entire plan is to simply break the rules and continually interrupt Biden. He knew he would lose, and lose badly. He has no capacity for empathy, no ability to listen, so a town hall style debate was always going to be tricky for him. Remove his ability to act up and he has nothing.

Whilst refusing to debate is never a good look, on balance I think ot is the right call. He would be destroyed and so better to head to a rally where he can control everything and not have to answer anything. That won't win him new voters but it will avoid a possible drop in support.

The "Biden is too scared to debate" posters have disappeared, just like the "Biden has dementia" posts have dwindled to a trickle in the odd thread. And I haven't seen a single post saying "I was wrong" about any of these. Makes you wonder if any of them genuinely held any of those beliefs.