Trump vs Biden 2020, Ultimate battle for the fate of our universe (pt 3)Read OP 01/11

drunkmonkey

Tell me how wrote: »

Like the idea of a dedicated election day thread and one with a poll.

Were you not happy with the one that gave Trump a 62.25% chance of winning, I doubt many people have changed their mind.

Richard Hillman

Going by the battleground state by state polls, they are pretty much the same as what they were 4 years ago. Some may say that the pollsters amended their methods to reflect better there is also a theory that Trump voters don't trust pollsters,especially door to door. If you lived in places where there was Rioting and looting, you'd be worried that it could be people in the area looking to case them. Although the most troubled places seem to be staunch blue states.

The bookies have not shifted over the last few days. Still 15/8 Trump to 2/5 Biden. Trump did come down a little for a couple of hours but went back to 15/8. This could be money related.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Were you not happy with the one that gave Trump a 62.25% chance of winning, I doubt many people have changed their mind.

When was that one taken? Was it the one that asked “Who would you vote for?”. That’s different from a “Who do you think will win?” poll. Two different questions.

What’s the problem with having one on the day? The last time I voted on a “Who do you think will win?” poll on boards.ie was months ago.

gmisk

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Were you not happy with the one that gave Trump a 62.25% chance of winning, I doubt many people have changed their mind.

I have that was a long time ago it was who people thought might win.....I thought a long time ago when I voted on that poll Trump would somehow sneak in (by fair means or foul)...
I think Biden will win now fairly comfortably if I had to guess.

Tell me how

Baggly wrote: »

From personal experience elsewhere on the site, the best way to run a poll is to not use the poll functionality here and use a google form instead. If you want, i can organise it. I can make it so that the front and backend is all visible - its just a little bit better system for conducting polls. Boards ones go a bit hinky sometimes.

Just as long as a Google form won't create any scenario where people logged in to their google account end up doxxing themselves through the use of a public form with front end/back end transparency.

I'm sure this can be protected against.

paleoperson

Tell me how wrote: »

Like the idea of a dedicated election day thread and one with a poll.

Two things.
Just in case, don't shut thread down at 2am or anything to get some sleep mods. It's time to shotgun some redbull and coffee and power through.
Make results of who voted for who visible on a poll. Less chance of 'I always knew' type nonsense in the days after, from all sides.

Here's a tip that will save you a lot of time - just don't watch it. Forget about it.

Why bother following the flashing numbers all night when you can just see them all the next day? It's pretty certain they won't know who won anyway for a few days.

RobertKK

I hope for a Biden win, but would not rule out a Trump win.
There are certain advantages to either side winning, but with Brexit, it would be good for a Biden win.
Trump has started no new wars which is a major positive and at the start of his presidency we had ISIS as a problem and they for the most part have been controlled.
The handling of the virus has been poor and the rallies have given bad example.

Tell me how

paleoperson wrote: »

Here's a tip that will save you a lot of time - just don't watch it. Forget about it.

Why bother following the flashing numbers all night when you can just see them all the next day? It's pretty certain they won't know who won anyway for a few days.

I can't wait for it.

I'm living in the US and have been fascinated with the events of the last 8 months, troubling and all as they are, they are truly historic times and will continue to be discussed for decades (I hope, because if not, it means some bigger mess has occurred).
With that in mind, I think it is a huge opportunity to actually observe these historic events as they unfold and I intend to do so right in to the early hours of Wednesday.

RobertKK

paleoperson wrote: »

Here's a tip that will save you a lot of time - just don't watch it. Forget about it.

Why bother following the flashing numbers all night when you can just see them all the next day? It's pretty certain they won't know who won anyway for a few days.

It is fun for people interested in this sort of thing. It is drama as it can swing from one likelihood to another.
It is a great TV event and relevant.

Quin_Dub

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Going by the battleground state by state polls, they are pretty much the same as what they were 4 years ago. Some may say that the pollsters amended their methods to reflect better there is also a theory that Trump voters don't trust pollsters,especially door to door. If you lived in places where there was Rioting and looting, you'd be worried that it could be people in the area looking to case them. Although the most troubled places seem to be staunch blue states.

They just aren't though...

There was a significant Group of Undecided voters last time , that just aren't there now.

Trump close the gap sharply in the polling in the closing days (that isn't happening now) and even then there was still a big chunk of undecided voters.

Trump gathered up about 75/80% of that category on polling day in the key states and that what's squeaked him over the line.

With the exception of Florida , the gap between the two candidates is more than the available undecided bucket so even if Trump was to pick them up at the same rate as he did in 2016 it's still not likely to be enough.

And just another point - Nobody polls in-person door to door anymore , haven't for decades - It's either phone or online.

There is a suggestion that people might be a bit reticent in a phone interview to say they were voting Trump , but there is almost no difference between the results of phone polling and online polling which doesn't really help that "shy voter" argument.

Baggly

Tell me how wrote:

Just as long as a Google form won't create any scenario where people logged in to their google account end up doxxing themselves through the use of a public form with front end/back end transparency.

No email details will be required

Open the Pubs

So are people going to stay up for this? I'm thinking of getting cans in then getting whatever TV coverage or YouTube streams up. Have to WFH Wednesday but I'll try get by.

tobefrank321

Trump is behind in some swing states but within the margin of error - 2-3%. In the crucial state of Florida he's only 1% behind in many polls.

If 2016 is anything to go by, he will do better than the opinion polls.

The Floyd p

Open the Pubs wrote: »

So are people going to stay up for this? I'm thinking of getting cans in then getting whatever TV coverage or YouTube streams up. Have to WFH Wednesday but I'll try get by.

To be sure! Be at the TV for hours haha

MeMen2_MoRi_

Open the Pubs wrote: »

So are people going to stay up for this? I'm thinking of getting cans in then getting whatever TV coverage or YouTube streams up. Have to WFH Wednesday but I'll try get by.

Could be better served by staying away from the pub stuff and go for the white stuff.

I think anyone pulling an all nighter are off their rocker. Wish all sides the best, especially the mods here.

yourdeadwright

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Trump is behind in some swing states but within the margin of error - 2-3%. In he crucial state of Florida he's only 1% behind in many polls.

If 2016 is anything to go by, he will do better than the opinion polls.

The voyeur in me wants him to win just to see what happens next,

But something tells me it'll go pear shaped just as quick for Biden

AlphaDelta1

Open the Pubs wrote: »

So are people going to stay up for this? I'm thinking of getting cans in then getting whatever TV coverage or YouTube streams up. Have to WFH Wednesday but I'll try get by.

Stayed up in 2016 but not going to bother this time around. The meltdown of the liberal left was the real joy for me in the days proceeding that election. Trump is an absolutely brutally bad candidate but I do hope he wins again just to see a repeat.

Penn

I know with the last election I ended up staying up because while trying to sleep, I couldn't stop checking Twitter every 10-20 minutes to see how things were going. I imagine I'll be even worse this time.

Muahahaha

Will likely stay up till about 3am waiting on a Florida call, if it goes to Biden then the election is done and its off to bed. If it goes to Trump it could be a much longer night :pac:

drunkmonkey

yourdeadwright wrote: »

But something tells me it'll go pear shaped just as quick for Biden

This is it, who ever wins is getting a pig in a bag, Biden can't do 4 years, does that mean Kamala becomes president for the rest of his term.

Overheal

Doomscrolling will be de rigueur Tuesday

Tell me how

drunkmonkey wrote: »

This is it, whoever wins is getting a pig in a bag, Biden can't do 4 years, does that mean Kamala becomes president for the rest of his term.

Why can't he?

What do you know that no one else does? Trump is the one who ended up in hospital unplanned and unexplained last year and had Covid a month ago.

Open the Pubs

Muahahaha wrote: »

Will likely stay up till about 3am waiting on a Florida call, if it goes to Biden then the election is done and its off to bed. If it goes to Trump it could be a much longer night :pac:

Yeah I think Florida is vital, from what I gather it will have results in early on the night?

Overheal

John O had a bumper episode last night, with 2 deep dives, both arguing why Trump has to be voted out of office

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuVo4fnpLC8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE63HmOYGps

Zubeneschamali

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If 2016 is anything to go by, he will do better than the opinion polls.

Obama outperformed the polls in both 2008 and 2012. No reason to suppose poll error has to be in Trumps favour.

Phoebas

Eric Cartman wrote: »

its a lie made up by those with an agenda.

You of all people have no businesses adjudicating on what is a lie.

Quin_Dub

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Trump is behind in some swing states but within the margin of error - 2-3%. In the crucial state of Florida he's only 1% behind in many polls.

If 2016 is anything to go by, he will do better than the opinion polls.

And so did Clinton...

With the exception of Wisconsin , Clintons vote total was a higher percentage than the final polling indicated in all the swing states, meaning Trump did not take ANY votes away from her.

Him closing the gap and winning was down entirely to the undecided voter category going his way.

A group which simply doesn't exist in large enough numbers this time around.

Manic Moran

MeMen2_MoRi_ wrote: »

I'm hoping this is being skewed by the few states that just sent out ballots instead of waiting for people to request the ballots?


"Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) finds that while nearly 80 million people have already voted in the 2020 election, both by mail and early in-person voting, another 24 million people have an outstanding mail ballot that they have not returned."

https://www.splcenter.org/presscenter/urgent-splc-report-finds-24-million-outstanding-mail-ballots-officials-urge-americans

https://www.splcenter.org/sites/default/files/bluelabs_avev_memo_11012020.pdf

Meh. I occasionally got a mail-in ballot in California. I'd deliver it to my polling station in person on the day after filling it out in the comfort of my home. I know I wasn't alone.

Overheal

When voting last week did see a couple people hand in their mail-in-ballots.

astrofool

Open the Pubs wrote: »

Yeah I think Florida is vital, from what I gather it will have results in early on the night?

Florida is vital to Trump, not vital to Biden, if Florida goes Biden, then it's over early, if it goes Trump, it will take a while for all the other state tallies to come through and figure out the winner.