Trump vs Biden 2020, Ultimate battle for the fate of our universe (pt 3)Read OP 01/11

Igotadose

biko wrote: »

ADA had about 60 cosponsors, 44 Democrats and 19 Republicans.
Joe was one of the 44. But yeah, well done, it's a very good cause.

It's how it works.

Eric Cartman

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Trump never looked this bad in the polls in 2016.


2016


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/


2020


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Ignoring the gap, trump is doing better in those polls than 2016 by .2 percent, biden doing better than hillary was but trump has increased over last time, if those increases hold in the right place then he can win

Quin_Dub

Overheal wrote: »

It takes looking at the fringe outlier polls in that sample set to perceive Trump even statistically tied anywhere.

You know what else those polls had though: Gary Johnson. I've only heard anything about third parties since the debates, but even Kanye is still running ads as a write in candidate in some states. Mental, but I don't think it will net nearly the same pull as 3rd party candidates did in 2016, where they were a regular feature in conversation. Here, no such luck, you will see Jo Jorgensen supporters mad she was pushed out of the debates (because polls never bothered to list her as an option) but, it doubly means voters aren't learning much about her either, and many aren't even aware she's running.

With numbers like these and no viable third party candidate to pull nearly the same numbers of voters away this time around, I don't see how Trump stands any chance. That was clearly the point of sending Kanye out to sockpuppet though.

Here's the thing about the polls from 2016 and it's been said before repeatedly but clearly needs to be said again.

The Polls did not get Clintons numbers wrong - They were all pretty much bang on in terms of what % of the vote she would get and in a lot of swing states the polls actually under-estimated her numbers slightly.

What they got wrong was two fold - The miscalculated where the "undecided" voters would go and they over-stated the 3rd party vote fairly consistently.

So - If the polls are "wrong" this time in exactly the same way and in exactly the same places as last time , guess what?

Trump still loses, because there simply aren't enough votes in those two categories to close the gap.

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Ignoring the gap, trump is doing better in those polls than 2016 by .2 percent, biden doing better than hillary was but trump has increased over last time, if those increases hold in the right place then he can win

No , he can't - The votes just aren't there as I've explained.

To win he needs the Biden vote to collapse , something that didn't even happen to Clinton after the Comey letter.

Beasty

biko wrote: »

You're

Seriously?

Cut out the Grammar Nazi stuff

greenfield21

Trump is polling better in battleground states than in 2016, that's all that matters.

Quin_Dub

greenfield21 wrote: »

Trump is polling better in battleground states than in 2016, that's all that matters.

He isn't though..

He's nowhere near the level of votes that he got when he won - he's about 3 points down on that level across the board.

Biden is ~3 points ahead of what Clinton actually got in those same States.

The Swing State average in 2016 had Clinton on about 46% , Trump on about 42% , the 3rd Parties on about 5% with about 7/8% undecided

The actual result had Trump on about 47% , Clinton basically the same (the gap was only 70k votes remember) with the rest going 3rd party.

Today , you have Biden just shy of 50% , Trump on ~44.5% , with 3rd party on about 3% , leaving only ~2% undecided.

Again - Trump won because in the final days of the election - possibly nudged by the Comey letter , a large proportion the undecided voters went for him instead of Clinton.

The Comey letter didn't lose Clinton any of the support she had , it lost her the voters on the fence.

If that didn't shift Clinton supporters then, there simply isn't ANY October surprise that anyone could pull out about Biden that might shift his current support.

There's almost no-one on the fence this time.

Even if the 3rd party vote is over-estimated by a factor of 2 , there still aren't enough votes on the table for Trump.

Things could change , it's still 3 weeks out but the fundamentals of this race are utterly different to the last one.

duploelabs

greenfield21 wrote: »

Trump is polling better in battleground states than in 2016, that's all that matters.

At a cursory glance yes, but the undecideds that switched to him in the run in a far far less now than in 2016. That is what truly matters

Timberrrrrrrr

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1315781835515817984?s=19

Teump firing shots at Fox again lol

Then gives a shout out to Roger Ailes...yes THAT Roger Ailes who had 23 accusations of sexual assault against him....no wonder Trump thinks he was so great.

Dillonb3

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1315781835515817984?s=19

Teump firing shots at Fox again lol

Then gives a shout out to Roger Ailes...yes THAT Roger Ailes who had 23 accusations of sexual assault against him....no wonder Trump thinks he was so great.

Most recent Lincoln ad project was having a go at Fox News for been Trump TV
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1315781622210473985

Professor Moriarty

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1315781835515817984?s=19

Teump firing shots at Fox again lol

Then gives a shout out to Roger Ailes...yes THAT Roger Ailes who had 23 accusations of sexual assault against him....no wonder Trump thinks he was so great.

Aithníonn ciaróg ciaróg eile.

1800_Ladladlad

Biden attempting to rail on people for their memory. The reporter said 56%. People's memories aren't good? He couldn't even remember the number that was said earlier. Four seconds later Biden reiterated 54%..? Bidens correct 56% of Americans should not vote for him. This is the lad who said the people of the US do not deserve to know his stance on packing the court until after the election, so boldly stating Trump's “Not very honest with people”, well that’s rich coming from Biden.



https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1315855276612878336

mcmoustache

1800_Ladladlad wrote: »

Biden attempting to rail on people for their memory. The reporter said 56%. People's memories aren't good? He couldn't even remember the number that was said earlier. Four seconds later Biden reiterated 54%..? Bidens correct 56% of Americans should not vote for him. This is the lad who said the people of the US do not deserve to know his stance on packing the court until after the election, so boldly stating Trump's “Not very honest with people”, well that’s rich coming from Biden.



https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1315855276612878336

Is this our daily distorted video from the ladlad repository of regurgitated rightwing twitter or is there really a wolf this time?

Carfacemandog

biko wrote: »

What Betty White looked like when Joe Biden started in politics. Long time ago.
Almost 50 years in politics. Can anyone remember a single notable achievement other than being elevated to VP by Obama? Something he managed himself?

He managed to not go bankrupt 5 or 6 times, including bankrupting casinos of all places. That puts him ahead of the other guy, who is now doing his best to bankrupt the USA despite the very strong economy left to him by Barack Obama and, indeed, Joe Biden.

Carfacemandog

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

but you posted it uncritically. It was exposed as doctored 5 minutes after you posted it. are you are not embarrassed by that? You really are desperate to post anything negative about biden because you cant post anything positive about trump.

Ding Ding Ding.

irelandrover

Carfacemandog wrote: »

He managed to not go bankrupt 5 or 6 times, including bankrupting casinos of all places. That puts him ahead of the other guy, who is now doing his best to bankrupt the USA despite the very strong economy left to him by Barack Obama and, indeed, Joe Biden.

What was trump's answer about his plan for the next 4 years? Didn't he ramble on about how he has experience now which is a good thing. So how is Trumps experience good but Biden's experience is bad.

timsey tiger

greenfield21 wrote: »

Trump is polling better in battleground states than in 2016, that's all that matters.

Not weighted by electorial votes he isn't. That's what really matters.

eagle eye

What are all you guys that spend your days sniping and biting at every post that isn't in support of the Democrats going to do come November when the election is over?
Why are you still at it constantly? Biden has this thing won. Why aren't you sitting back chilling out and being happy and just laughing at those supporting Trump?

osarusan

eagle eye wrote: »

What are all you guys that spend your days sniping and biting at every post that isn't in support of the Democrats going to do come November when the election is over?
Why are you still at it constantly? Biden has this thing won. Why aren't you sitting back chilling out and being happy and just laughing at those supporting Trump?

Direct those questions towards yourself while you're at it.


You have more posts in the thread than anybody else!

eagle eye

osarusan wrote:

Direct those questions towards yourself while you're at it.
You have more posts in the thread than anybody else!

Is that a fact or just a guess by you?

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

What are all you guys that spend your days sniping and biting at every post that isn't in support of the Democrats going to do come November when the election is over?
Why are you still at it constantly? Biden has this thing won. Why aren't you sitting back chilling out and being happy and just laughing at those supporting Trump?

Aren't you doing basically the exact same thing with this post while trying to maintain an air of superiority? Some people find the topic interesting and are discussing it.

Igotadose

Deleted User wrote: »

Aren't you doing basically the exact same thing with this post while trying to maintain an air of superiority? Some people find the topic interesting and are discussing it.

And, on November 4th or whenever the counts are certified, there'll be tens of millions of disappointed #IMPOTUS voters out there. What then? They're not going away. A lot of them have firearms. A tiny percentage are willingly violent. Many are online. It's *very* scary. Getting rid of the #IMPOTUS imo will be a good thing, but life will have to go on. A lot of what he did will need to be undone and a lot of what he didn't do will need to happen.

It's scary times. Biden being elected might lead to a few days of "Whew!" but reality is, it's really scary. Not as scary as an #IMPOTUS reelection though.

Kermit.de.frog

I'm more and more convinced Trump's supporters will need an actual safe space when he loses.

A bigger bunch of snowflakes you'll never come across

eagle eye

Deleted User wrote:

Aren't you doing basically the exact same thing with this post while trying to maintain an air of superiority? Some people find the topic interesting and are discussing it.

I'm not sniping or biting at every post that's not in support of the Democrats.
You aren't either.

I'm talking about those constantly attacking any post that isn't fully in support of the Democrats. I'm talking about those constantly posting links to every single little negative thing they can find about Trump.
Imo it's completely unnecessary, we have enough information about him to know what he's like. There's a nastiness and an unlikeable hate in this thread.

I've been accused many times of being a Trump supporter in this thread. Only a couple of days ago I was being attacked because I've only said a few negative things about Trump apparently, like not enough it seems.

As I said you aren't one of those posters, you are capable of having a level-headed conversation.

eagle eye

Igotadose wrote:

And, on November 4th or whenever the counts are certified, there'll be tens of millions of disappointed #IMPOTUS voters out there. What then? They're not going away. A lot of them have firearms. A tiny percentage are willingly violent. Many are online. It's *very* scary. Getting rid of the #IMPOTUS imo will be a good thing, but life will have to go on. A lot of what he did will need to be undone and a lot of what he didn't do will need to happen.

It's scary times. Biden being elected might lead to a few days of "Whew!" but reality is, it's really scary. Not as scary as an #IMPOTUS reelection though.

You have a large amount of those types on both sides unfortunately.

Igotadose

eagle eye wrote: »

You have a large amount of those types on both sides unfortunately.

Agreed. Life will go on, somehow people will need to climb down from entrenched positions. A return to 'normality' (pre-Covid) with the screaming and spitting of the #IMPOTUS a sad historical footnote will cool things down - but who knows when that is. A year from now, assuming a vaccine in the Spring, a large takeup and a serious drop in cases? And then what, what jobs are there to return to? Tourism/entertainment have shown how 'fragile' those industries are. What then? Back to school to learn a trade or other skill? Still need to eat in the meantime.

It really is going to be interesting times.

Lolle06

eagle eye wrote: »

You have a large amount of those types on both sides unfortunately.

Is that so? Can you show us a picture of democrats posing heavily armed like militia groups in public, because I only saw Trump voters doing this.

However, I believe liberals and democrats possess weapons too, but they obviously don’t have to publicly „stand by“ for their man.

It’s almost like the smallest dog barks the loudest with Trump voters.

hetuzozaho

The whole Fauci thing is a little embarrassing from Trump, an this tweet even more so.
What on earth will he be tweeting in two weeks time He's sounding like a worried man IMO.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1315988404694396929

Quin_Dub

Igotadose wrote: »

Agreed. Life will go on, somehow people will need to climb down from entrenched positions. A return to 'normality' (pre-Covid) with the screaming and spitting of the #IMPOTUS a sad historical footnote will cool things down - but who knows when that is. A year from now, assuming a vaccine in the Spring, a large takeup and a serious drop in cases? And then what, what jobs are there to return to? Tourism/entertainment have shown how 'fragile' those industries are. What then? Back to school to learn a trade or other skill? Still need to eat in the meantime.

It really is going to be interesting times.

The acceptance and usage of the vaccine is going to be a huge problem for the US , and elsewhere to varying degrees , but the foot-hold that the Anti-Vaxx groups have established in the US is much larger than anywhere else.



Info from this article

Now obviously a properly funded and well thought out marketing campaign could get those numbers back up , but right now only ~50% of US Adults would get a vaccine.

That's not good.

km991148

Deleted User wrote: »

Aren't you doing basically the exact same thing with this post while trying to maintain an air of superiority? Some people find the topic interesting and are discussing it.

Arent you doing the same thing with this post about people doing the same thing with their post about the thing that was originally mentioned?

:pac::pac:

Overheal

km991148 wrote: »

Arent you doing the same thing with this post about people doing the same thing with their post about the thing that was originally mentioned?

:pac::pac:

Such a typical post about the same thing with that post about people doing the same thing with their post regarding the original mentioned subtopic