Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

seamie78

based on that a third of the population in Ireland would have caught it already....would I be correct in saying that

marno21

weldoninhio wrote: »

Dr Michael Ryan, the WHO’s Head of Emergencies revealed that they believe roughly 10% of the world has been infected with Sars-Cov-2. This is their “best estimate”, and a huge increase over the number of officially recognised cases (around 35 million).

The global population is roughly 7.8 billion people, if 10% have been infected that is 780 million cases. The global death toll currently attributed to Sars-Cov-2 infections is 1,061,539.

That’s an infection fatality rate of roughly 0.14%. Right in line with seasonal flu and the predictions of many experts from all around the world.

There's the numbers from Dr Ryan. If you have a calculator you can do the maths yourself. IFR of 0.14%.

The IFR from Covid-19 may be similar to the CFR from seasonal flu. It doesn't account for the majority of seasonal flu cases going unnoticed due to low testing prevalence.

The IFR is also much higher in western countries with older populations and better outcomes from pre-existing conditions that causes more severe Covid-19. Obesity is also more of an issue in western countries and obesity is also a cause of some of the underlying diseases that lead to worse Covid-19 outcomes.

TonyMaloney

Roger_007 wrote: »

It’s not so long ago that Nichola Sturgeon was getting high praise for how she was dealing with the pandemic.
I think her halo is slipping a bit?

In her defence - they share a border with England and rely heavily on the dysfunctional mess that is Westminister.

And I also think much of the praise was due to a comparison being made with the English approach. Which was and is abysmal.

quokula

weldoninhio wrote: »

Dr Michael Ryan, the WHO’s Head of Emergencies revealed that they believe roughly 10% of the world has been infected with Sars-Cov-2. This is their “best estimate”, and a huge increase over the number of officially recognised cases (around 35 million).

The global population is roughly 7.8 billion people, if 10% have been infected that is 780 million cases. The global death toll currently attributed to Sars-Cov-2 infections is 1,061,539.

That’s an infection fatality rate of roughly 0.14%. Right in line with seasonal flu and the predictions of many experts from all around the world.

There's the numbers from Dr Ryan. If you have a calculator you can do the maths yourself. IFR of 0.14%.

So if you multiply the number of infections by 20, but don't modify the number of deaths at all, then you get the low IFR you're looking for.

Do you realise what a crazy assumption that is? You're taking something WHO said out of context and applying some extremely faulty logic to it.

GooglePlus

weldoninhio wrote: »

With Covid? Or Of Covid?

Nobody dies "of" covid, you die due to the complications it brings, same as the flu, cancer, aids, everything really. You die of cardiac arrest or brain failure.

weldoninhio

weldoninhio wrote: »

Dr Michael Ryan, the WHO’s Head of Emergencies revealed that they believe roughly 10% of the world has been infected with Sars-Cov-2. This is their “best estimate”, and a huge increase over the number of officially recognised cases (around 35 million).

The global population is roughly 7.8 billion people, if 10% have been infected that is 780 million cases. The global death toll currently attributed to Sars-Cov-2 infections is 1,061,539.

That’s an infection fatality rate of roughly 0.14%. Right in line with seasonal flu and the predictions of many experts from all around the world.

There's the numbers from Dr Ryan. If you have a calculator you can do the maths yourself. IFR of 0.14%.

This logical fallacy has been repeated multiple times over the past few days. Using confirmed deaths as your numerator and and estimate of cases as your denominator. They are not comparing apples with apples. We know many deaths have been missed in many countries so if your using an estimate of cases under the line, you use an estimate of deaths over the line.
We also know that in the developing world a lot fewer people live long enough to be in the more vulnerable categories for this disease

Boggles

weldoninhio wrote: »

With Covid? Or Of Covid?

You tell me.

What is the figures for your comparison.

With Flu? Or of Flu?

Away With The Fairies

DebDynamite wrote: »

Yes, as Tony said, Level 5 is the “circuit breaker”, and we already that that in March/April/May.

No one could’ve envisioned that it went on as long as it did, but what I saw happen was that people kinda became institutionalised and brainwashed, and almost got obsessed with seeing the numbers falling. There was a feeling if we could just hold out a bit longer, we could totally eliminate it. I could see the same thing happening again - especially in the depths of winter when people aren’t out and about so much.

Level 5 should be a last resort as it could go on for much longer than we would be led to believe.

They're asking alot of us as people, again, when the government isn't doing much except for closing businesses. They took in people of planes during the summer and they were free go anywhere. You heard the stories, a barber in Sligo getting of a flight and going for dinner with his family and then infecting them. We had hospitals for TB, we have nothing now and they're making a complete balls of it.

GooglePlus

seamie78 wrote: »

based on that a third of the population in Ireland would have caught it already....would I be correct in saying that

It's a global estimation inflated due to high density third world estimations. We're nowhere near that, I thought the same myself when I first read that and was corrected by someone here.

It would be 10% of Ireland population anyway, not 33%?

Sconsey

weldoninhio wrote: »

Dr Michael Ryan, the WHO’s Head of Emergencies revealed that they believe roughly 10% of the world has been infected with Sars-Cov-2. This is their “best estimate”, and a huge increase over the number of officially recognised cases (around 35 million).

The global population is roughly 7.8 billion people, if 10% have been infected that is 780 million cases. The global death toll currently attributed to Sars-Cov-2 infections is 1,061,539.

That’s an infection fatality rate of roughly 0.14%. Right in line with seasonal flu and the predictions of many experts from all around the world.

There's the numbers from Dr Ryan. If you have a calculator you can do the maths yourself. IFR of 0.14%.

Such nonsense...happy to take the WHO's estimate for infections but compare it with the actuals for death numbers. You're not comparing like with like, I doubt you understand that.

You are assuming that none of the other 745 million have died of covid.

AlphaDelta1

weldoninhio wrote: »

With Covid? Or Of Covid?

With Cancer? Or of Cancer?

Hector Savage

GooglePlus wrote: »

You forgot the countless deaths that aren't being reported, especially in third world settings.

You're complicating it for no reason. How many people died due to complications associated with Flu last year in Ireland? Is it near the Covid figure that's only been running for over half a year?

It would be more for sure, but not 20x more (like it's 20x more cases then official) ...

Still a lot lower IFR, not 0.14%, but even doubling the deaths - which I think is generous, would give less then 0.3% IFR.

GooglePlus

Hector Savage wrote: »

It would be more for sure, but not 20x more (like it's 20x more cases then official) ...

Still a lot lower IFR, not 0.14%, but even doubling the deaths - which I think is generous, would give less then 0.3% IFR.

You also have to take into account that the IFR for flu has been calculated in an open world setting with free movement. The entire world locked down to reduce the impact of Covid-19. Deaths against cases would be much higher if we let it run wild, leaving our hospitals in ribbons.

Boggles

Do people honesty think America have had 20% of the entire worlds deaths with 4% it's population?

Eod100

Derry's figures fairly worrying https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1316004106960539648?s=19

bilston

Eod100 wrote: »

Derry's figures fairly worrying https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1316004106960539648?s=19

7 deaths added today in NI...4 in the last 24 hours, 3 from previous days.

Away With The Fairies

What's going on up North?

CIARAN_BOYLE

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

What's going on up North?

They essentially have level 2 restrictions (3 in derry) and it's out of control. Compliance is poor too.

OwenM

Eod100 wrote: »

Derry's figures fairly worrying https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1316004106960539648?s=19

NI will have herd immunity by Feb if this keeps up

AlphaDelta1

Boggles wrote: »

Do people honesty think America have had 20% of the entire worlds deaths with 4% it's population?

No not really.

But if it helps get the orange clown out of office i'm all for it.

caveat emptor

OwenM wrote: »

NI will have herd immunity by Feb if this keeps up

Or Derry no?

Kermit.de.frog

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

What's going on up North?

Serious compliance issues. Was up there a couple of months back and the lack of face masks while shopping compared to here was really evident.

I don't know why compliance is so poor.

Jim_Hodge

weldoninhio wrote: »

With Covid? Or Of Covid?

Tiresome at this stage.

marno21

Boggles wrote: »

Do people honesty think America have had 20% of the entire worlds deaths with 4% it's population?

Yes. The general heath of their population is scandalous and the risk factors for severe Covid-19 are clear to see in their population.

Add in ignorance, poor governance and politicisation of public health advise and you get the result the US has got.

fly_agaric

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I don't know why compliance is so poor.

Bit of a contrarian bunch on both "sides" of the house maybe, prone to giving directions coming down from authorities the finger?
It is an attitude that doesn't seem to go well with trying to control this virus.

frank8211

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Actually I bring a grandchild to school and the kids couldn’t wait to get back
The excitement in the yard was palpable , the kids were eager and delighted to be back

Be careful and mind yourself

bilston

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Serious compliance issues. Was up there a couple of months back and the lack of face masks while shopping compared to here was really evident.

I don't know why compliance is so poor.

Face masks only became compulsory a couple of months ago.

There is a lot more compliance of face masks here now (certainly in Belfast anyway). Was in Tescos at lunch, every single person in the shop was wearing a face mask.

Loafing Oaf

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Serious compliance issues. Was up there a couple of months back and the lack of face masks while shopping compared to here was really evident.

I don't know why compliance is so poor.

Don't want to get into ethnic stereotyping here, but there's a tradition of resistance to instruction by the authorities in one of the communities up there. Although that wouldn't explain why Fermanagh is doing so much better than Derry...

bilston

fly_agaric wrote: »

Bit of a contrarian bunch on both "sides" of the house maybe, prone to giving directions coming down from authorities the finger?
It is an attitude that doesn't seem to go well with trying to control this virus.

Don't think that's an issue. The executive, after a rocky start over closing schools, have broadly spoken with one voice during the Pandemic. Although they seem to be divided on how far to go now with restrictions.

It may be more that NI wasn't badly hit in the first wave and that has led to complacency and perhaps there is less immunity which means the virus can spread faster.

mloc123

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Serious compliance issues. Was up there a couple of months back and the lack of face masks while shopping compared to here was really evident.

I don't know why compliance is so poor.

Not often I agree with Kermit on here... But yeah. Was there in July and it was as if Covid didn't exist. It felt uncomfortable..