Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

So why don't you wait until numbers start dropping before you start celebrating?
Is there a rush to celebrate?

You can deduce there is gravity before seeing an object start to fall

Polar101

eagle eye wrote: »

So why don't you wait until numbers start dropping before you start celebrating?
Is there a rush to celebrate?

You know, there are emotions between utter joy and utter gloom. Some people can be just a little bit pleased.

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

But an epidemic / pandemic will not remain in exponential growth indefinitely, so we can only say its in an exponential growth phase, not its gone exponential, which is only slightly more useful a statement than the neutrinos have mutated. The overall distribution will be influenced by multiple factors including number of susceptible individuals which declines over time and containment measures in place which lower the growth function. The exponential decay function will kick in when the number of susceptible individuals drops below a certain threshold, which will be reached at a lower number the more control measures that are in place.

Didn't say it would. This is what I actually said.

The concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in influent of Dublin’s Ringsend wastewater treatment plant is increasing exponentially.

Bit of a straw man there raind. I was referring to a specific chart which a poster accused me of not understanding. Second time this has happened in two days. I don't know why you are waffling on about other topics.

Do you disagree with this chart and the fact that cases are increasing exponentially? If you disagree then you don't understand it. The log of the incidence is a straight line so it is by definition increasing exponentially.

https://twitter.com/StuartDNeilson/status/1315913925385388034?s=20

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

seamus

eagle eye wrote: »

So why don't you wait until numbers start dropping before you start celebrating?
Is there a rush to celebrate?

Optimism is not illegal or taboo.

If you're going to be dour every time the number of cases is more than zero, the next 18 months are going to be very long for you.

Just like every increase is cause for concern, every decrease is cause for hope.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Didn't say it would. This is what I actually said.



Bit of a straw man there raind. I was referring to a specific chart which a poster accused me of not understanding. Second time this has happened in two days. I don't know why you are waffling on about other topics.

Do you disagree with this chart and the fact that cases are increasing exponentially? If you disagree then you don't understand it. The log of the incidence is a straight line so it is by definition increasing exponentially.

https://twitter.com/StuartDNeilson/status/1315913925385388034?s=20

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

Good Chart - constant growth back to June. If anything it slowed at the end of August if you look at the bump in the log chart

ACitizenErased

Deleted User wrote: »

Good Chart - constant growth back to June. If anything it slowed at the end of August if you look at the bump in the log chart

a lot of people don't understand what exponential growth is and simply assume its a slopey line on a graph, I wouldn't bother

Benimar

For those putting so much weight into one days swab total being lower than the previous day - the 7 day average of positive swabs actually increased from 754 to 802.4.

Also, given we used full capacity yesterday (15k is our stated daily capacity) there is no guarantee we are effectively tracing everyone.

Hopefully this is the start of a slowdown/stabilisation/reduction, but I think even the amateur statisticians on here would all agree that you cannot read very much into one single data point.

caveat emptor

ACitizenErased wrote: »

a lot of people don't understand what exponential growth is and simply assume its a slopey line on a graph, I wouldn't bother

It can be a hard concept. Indeed most don't bother and accuse of others being ignorant. Easier to do that than put the work and time in to understand maths.

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

Good Chart - constant growth back to June. If anything it slowed at the end of August if you look at the bump in the log chart

Not mine but thanks? So would you say it is increasing exponentially or is that twitter person wrong. You didn't say. You said 'constant growth'.

Hector Savage

https://summit.news/2020/10/13/bill-gates-says-world-wont-return-to-normal-until-a-lot-of-people-take-a-second-covid-vaccine/

Yeah yeah yeah, summit news I know, but still ...

“That is where we can finally start taking all the problems that have been created — in education, mental health — and start to build back in a positive way,”

Yeah sure, just lets lose a whole generation of kids in education and mental health ....

News networks like CNN appear to be insistent on having “the new normal” become permanent, with their international security editor Nick Paton Walsh asserting that the mandatory wearing of masks will become “permanent,” “just part of life,” and that the public would need to “come to terms with it.”

Well this part is 100% true, some people are just loving the misery .

DOCARCH

Big jump in UK deaths today. 143 reported.

Kermit.de.frog

Wearing a piece of cloth on your face to protect others is hardly 'misery'. It's becoming normalised as it did in the far east.

The western world has experienced a trauma that is going to take a lot of getting over and some changes will be permanent for the simple reason we can't allow this to unfold like this again, with God forbid, more deadly potential diseases.

CIARAN_BOYLE

pauldry wrote: »

We are probably at the peak now of the 2nd wave but crushing the curve may take a long long time. Still 100 cases a day by Christmas?

Would we take that?

If you listened to Dr Holohan last week he said that he expects compliance with restrictions to be very poor over the Christmas period. If the R number spikes over the Christmas it would be much better if it spiked at 50 cases a day instead of a much higher level.

bennyl10

7 day rate increases by .1 based on swabs

has the 14 day rate also increased?

Looks like the original level 3 green shoots in counties have fallen again

are NPHET expected to recommend Thursday? Or just a general meeting?..

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Not mine but thanks? So would you say it is increasing exponentially or is that twitter person wrong. You didn't say. You said 'constant growth'.

In exponential growth the rate of growth is constant. from the twitter data 4% per day.

Actually - had a read of the twitter thread associated with this chart where he projects this will peak in February with almost everyone infected. What is not acknowledged anywhere in the projections of the individual is that the suppression already in place (at least 50%, possibly more considering some regard the unconstrained R0 at >4), will reduce the peak of the virus significantly as the inflection point between infected and susceptible will be much lower and exponential decay will kick in

CIARAN_BOYLE

bennyl10 wrote: »

7 day rate increases by .1 based on swabs

has the 14 day rate also increased?

Looks like the original level 3 green shoots in counties have fallen again

are NPHET expected to recommend Thursday? Or just a general meeting?..

I think there will be a recommendation of some sort.

Ficheall

ACitizenErased wrote: »

a lot of people don't understand what exponential growth is

Ain't that the fecking truth!

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Exponential growth = 33% more cases per day than the previous day.

:pac:

stephenjmcd

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Wearing a piece of cloth on your face to protect others is hardly 'misery'. It's becoming normalised as it did in the far east.

The western world has experienced a trauma that is going to take a lot of getting over and some changes will be permanent for the simple reason we can't allow this to unfold like this again, with God forbid, more deadly potential diseases.

Its becoming normalised seeing as it reduces the risk of catching a highly transmissible virus for which there's no current vaccine. It was only normal in the far east mainly due to air pollution

Apart from hand hygiene and cough etiquette which are positive things, I don't see what changes become permanent after this, you might see that differently.

You think masks will be normal after a vaccine? I'd highly doubt it. Human nature is to slip back to routine and I've no doubt thats what will happen.

bennyl10

Boggles wrote: »

The 7 day rate went up .1%.

It's now 5.6%.

It was 3% 2 weeks ago.

so a shoot up of the 14 day

todays figures are not stabilization in any sense

eagle eye

seamus wrote:

Optimism is not illegal or taboo.

Never said it was.

seamus wrote:

If you're going to be dour every time the number of cases is more than zero, the next 18 months are going to be very long for you.

Well I'm pretty happy most of the time. I'm just not one that be gets excited very no easily. I see numbers in ICU not increasing as just a one day thing.

seamus wrote:

Just like every increase is cause for concern, every decrease is cause for hope.

There wasn't a decrease though.

Eod100

bennyl10 wrote: »

7 day rate increases by .1 based on swabs

has the 14 day rate also increased?

Looks like the original level 3 green shoots in counties have fallen again

are NPHET expected to recommend Thursday? Or just a general meeting?..

I'd say they might reccomend upping of levels if some border counties if NI is bringing in restrictions so they're similar. Not sure about rest of country.

bb1234567

Uk already exceeding short term pessimistic scenario predictions.
Estimated that UK may begin to see over 100 covid deaths per day by last week of October
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/uk-100-deaths-day-covid-19-infectious-disease-expert-662269

Almost 150 deaths there today unfortunately

eagle eye

ACitizenErased wrote:

a lot of people don't understand what exponential growth is and simply assume its a slopey line on a graph, I wouldn't bother

Well based on our conversations about it a month ago you certainly don't understand exponential growth. All you wanted to do was argue about backlogged cases affecting any calculation which is easily managed when doing exponential math.

normanoffside

Cristiano Ronaldo tests positive.

There are few footballers who haven't at this stage.

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1316037404835315713

Hector Savage

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Wearing a piece of cloth on your face to protect others is hardly 'misery'. It's becoming normalised as it did in the far east.

The western world has experienced a trauma that is going to take a lot of getting over and some changes will be permanent for the simple reason we can't allow this to unfold like this again, with God forbid, more deadly potential diseases.

So you think it's ok to be mandatory - in 10 years time - to wear masks as you walk alone down the street

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

In exponential growth the rate of growth is constant. from the twitter data 4% per day.

Actually - had a read of the twitter thread associated with this chart where he projects this will peak in February with almost everyone infected. What is not acknowledged anywhere in the projections of the individual is that the suppression already in place (at least 50%, possibly more considering some regard the unconstrained R0 at >4), will reduce the peak of the virus significantly as the inflection point between infected and susceptible will be much lower and exponential decay will kick in

Thanks raind Great answer talking about something else. :eek:
The question related to the chart and the data shown on it.
Of course exponential growth will not continue indefinitely but our health system may well be overrun long before that point.

You don't need to answer of course but looks like you are being evasive. I'll ask it again just in case you want to clarify your understanding of the chart (posted below) so that their can be no ambiguity.

Would you agree that cases are increasing exponentially currently? It's a yes or no question I'm afraid. I'm not asking what the rate of increase or decrease will be in 3 months. It's ok to say it. Exponential is not a dirty word.

mloc123

bb1234567 wrote: »

Uk already exceeding short term pessimistic scenario predictions.
Estimated that UK may begin to see over 100 covid deaths per day by last week of October
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/uk-100-deaths-day-covid-19-infectious-disease-expert-662269

Almost 150 deaths there today unfortunately

IIRC the UK always had a higher death rate on Tuesday due to some reporting delays over the weekend? Some areas or hospitals didn't report at the weekend, so Sunday and Monday were low and Tuesday high.

speckle

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its becoming normalised seeing as it reduces the risk of catching a highly transmissible virus for which there's no current vaccine. It was only normal in the far east mainly due to air pollution

Apart from hand hygiene and cough etiquette which are positive things, I don't see what changes become permanent after this, you might see that differently.

You think masks will be normal after a vaccine? I'd highly doubt it. Human nature is to slip back to routine and I've no doubt thats what will happen.

Agree, if people wear a mask in a country for air pollution. fix the pollution.


Hand hygiene and cough etiquette should stay.


And sick people should be able to stay home without the fear of losing their job.



We have seen mask fatigue already, longterm they should only be used in high risk areas



Always going be virus particles of this that and the other in the air. We are part of nature, with loads of particles of bugs in our bodies already.


Humans need to see other humans faces.



I mean, what next ...astronaut suits for all the public if Ebola etc hits.:D

quokula

Hector Savage wrote: »

So you think it's ok to be mandatory - in 10 years time - to wear masks as you walk alone down the street

It won't be mandatory, but hopefully people who choose to wear them sometimes won't be ridiculed and won't be made to feel uncomfortable. Wearing masks was common in Asia before this pandemic. It reduces regular illnesses too, and it's considered polite not to be spreading your germs, even if it's just a common cold.

Kermit.de.frog

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its becoming normalised seeing as it reduces the risk of catching a highly transmissible virus for which there's no current vaccine. It was only normal in the far east mainly due to air pollution

Apart from hand hygiene and cough etiquette which are positive things, I don't see what changes become permanent after this, you might see that differently.

You think masks will be normal after a vaccine? I'd highly doubt it. Human nature is to slip back to routine and I've no doubt thats what will happen.

The biggest change you'll see along with masks will be distancing measures in Irish society. People will be use to distanced pubs or restaurants for example so it won't feel a big change but versus December 2019 these are big changes.

We are lucky, as bad as it is, we are dealing with COVID. We have been walking this tightrope decade after decade and somehow keeping balanced. Now we've fallen off.

If we were dealing with something just as contagious but with higher fatality rate what's being implemented today would pale in comparison to the restrictions we have to live with now.

It's a low price to pay to make sure this never happens again.