Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

harr

One thing I will say is that the guards are a lot more visible this time around . While they might not have full Authority to stop you leaving your county they seem to making life difficult for those who are refusing to comply.
Stopped 3 times today on a trip up to Dublin for a hospital appointment.

speckle

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Talk of school cases in Kenmare and Killarney and a GAA match after gathering party

Thinking along the same lines and another possible cluster Listowel was mentioned?
Still weird Dingle area didnt have more with all the tourists only the castle two or so since march unless any of the past weeks clusters above eventually contribute

is_that_so

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It's a semi permanent level 3 in my opinion if we don't go upto level 5 in my opinion.

It's a compromise we might be able to live with for this winter period.

wadacrack

BringBackMick wrote: »

In my opinion it is clear level 3 has stabilised Dublin.

Dublin is always going to have a high level of cases considering population density etc.

Considering the level of economic activity still ongoing, schools open etc....I think the unhappy middle ground of level 3 could be the way forward.

It has lowered the growth rate but in my opinion the R0 appears to be still above 1.




https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1316071187781431296

ElTel

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Labour leader in the UK demanding a circuit breaker type lockdown for 2-3 weeks over the mid term. If the Tories agree it could be a good opportunity to do likewise here.

It's probably been mentioned before but isn't there meant to be a timing aspect to this 2 week circuit breaker idea? Isn't it meant to be optimal when you hit the exponential growth phase early in a wave?

Maestro85

is_that_so wrote: »

It's a compromise we might be able to live with for this winter period.

and summarily ignored by a portion of the population that don't give a toss, which undoes all the sacrifice by the majority following the guidelines.

Sam Hain

niallo27 wrote: »

L5 does not address house parties or people congregating in groups.

Really?

Gael23

is_that_so wrote: »

It's a compromise we might be able to live with for this winter period.

Until Christmas

Arghus

We can't definitely say anything about Dublin at this point. So many people are quick to jump to one conclusion or the other after each evenings results.

lulublue22

is_that_so wrote: »

They are going to do these three weeks. I disagree with 5 unless the health system in under the risk of complete collapse. Level 5, in reality, also means the year is over.

I agree level 5 will have severe impacts economically and socially. I think the gov will do everything they can to avoid level 5 but I think it is too early to be ruling it out as a non runner. I think people ( and I mean all of us ) need to ramp up our efforts to reduce transmission.

speckle

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Gardai and Fire Brigade in Kerry have cases

Ooh I forgot them... the other castle...seems one needs to be careful in kerry if castles are about!

frank8211

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Are the gaa still daydreaming about hosting an inter county championship in the end of the month?

Yes and they should drop it but of course theres possibly tv fees!

manofwisdom

BringBackMick wrote: »

In my opinion it is clear level 3 has stabilised Dublin.

Dublin is always going to have a high level of cases considering population density etc.

Considering the level of economic activity still ongoing, schools open etc....I think the unhappy middle ground of level 3 could be the way forward.

Dublin 11th in 14 day incidence rate now, not so long ago they were 1st well ahead of the rest.

Stabilising Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan will become more troublesome unless NI suddenly take things a lot more serious.

is_that_so

Gael23 wrote: »

Until Christmas

Most probably, even if it shows a slower decline.

CIARAN_BOYLE

wadacrack wrote: »

It has lowered the growth rate but in my opinion the R0 appears to be still above 1.




https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1316071187781431296

It takes 2 weeks for the effects to start in. The day 5 average was about 190 2 weeks after level 3 compared to 206 today.

Very flat although I agree that some people are wrongly optimistic.

seamus

Dublin was on a slow downward trend that's definitely paused to an extent in recent days. The overall trend is still downward, but slllooooowwww. As in, might get to 100/day by Christmas.

One would have to wonder if there are specific clusters of cases or areas of the city driving this. By all accounts the majority of LEAs are seeing a decrease in cases.

MerlinSouthDub

Arghus wrote: »

We can't definitely say anything about Dublin at this point. So many people are quick to jump to one conclusion or the other after each evenings results.

Yes I agree. I am hopeful that level 3 in the rest of the country will push Dublin down again. I suspect there must have been ome Dublin people going to pubs etc in Wicklow, Kildare etc, and that will have had some impact on Dublin infection rates. Here's hoping for good numbers over the next few days.

Arghus

Arghus wrote: »

We can't definitely say anything about Dublin at this point. So many people are quick to jump to one conclusion or the other after each evenings results.

One thing I would note is Dublin has the advantage of a higher proportion of office workers that can work from home, and another big employer would be construction which for many is outdoor work.

Other areas are more reliant on manufacturing, food production, and the like, so level 3 won't have an equal effect across the country.

Gael23

is_that_so wrote: »

It's a compromise we might be able to live with for this winter period.

Until Christmas

Gods Gift

Any county that has not yet played its county finals should just forget about it for this year. My county hasn’t and we were all looking forward to it but the after match either way would be a disaster.

Rebelbrowser

manofwisdom wrote: »

Dublin 11th in 14 day incidence rate now, not so long ago they were 1st well ahead of the rest.

Stabilising Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan will become more troublesome unless NI suddenly take things a lot more serious.

More a case of the rest of us catching Dublin and passing it out rather than Dublin falling very much.

JJayoo

JJayoo wrote: »

Is there any place to find the break down for each county?

14 day data available
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/

Used by
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-19-in-ireland-latest-county-by-county-data-1020602.html

frank8211

Gods Gift wrote: »

Any county that has not yet played its county finals should just forget about it for this year. My county hasn’t and we were all looking forward to it but the after match either way would be a disaster.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/gaa/2020/1011/1170846-mcmenamin-fermanagh-likely-to-seek-clare-postponement/

Jack1985

Positivity rate of tests has reduced from 6.2% to 5.6%, more to do to reduce community spread but heading in the right direction.

Polar101

Deleted User wrote: »

One thing I would note is Dublin has the advantage of a higher proportion of office workers that can work from home, and another big employer would be construction which for many is outdoor work.

And then also lots of people who commute to work from outside Dublin - if cases in the likes of Wicklow, Meath and Kildare go down, that should help the Dublin numbers as well.

eagle eye

BringBackMick wrote:

Considering the level of economic activity still ongoing, schools open etc....I think the unhappy middle ground of level 3 could be the way forward.

The amount of people who make things up in their minds without enough information and think it's a good thought is amazing.
Numbers are not going to remain the same. They will either go up or go down. They are still going up in Dublin and that means there's more cases in Dublin and the more cases there are the more likely that the virus finds new hosts.
The clear answer is shutting the schools.

is_that_so

lulublue22 wrote: »

I agree level 5 will have severe impacts economically and socially. I think the gov will do everything they can to avoid level 5 but I think it is too early to be ruling it out as a non runner. I think people ( and I mean all of us ) need to ramp up our efforts to reduce transmission.

I think Level 4 is the most they want to go in practical terms and possibly a bit easier to get out of. Level 5 is really a two step reversal through the equally onerous Level 4. It's also one thing to go against NPHET when they want to higher levels but quite reckless to try to reverse it against their advice.

JP Liz V1

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Are the gaa still daydreaming about hosting an inter county championship in the end of the month?

I thought the GAA had suspended all training and
matches

I'll probably be shot for this but is GAA an essential necessity that needs to go ahead, the partying after matches are leading to cases

mcsean2163

circadian wrote: »

Has she provided any evidence for her claims? She's a member of the scientific community, she would know there is an expectation of proof for this.

Yep.

She wrote 2 papers. Her latest is here:


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344545028_SARS-CoV-2_Is_an_Unrestricted_Bioweapon_A_Truth_Revealed_through_Uncovering_a_Large-Scale_Organized_Scientific_Fraud

Nobody will publish. She's not s senior author but seems to be doing her best in the absence of help or peer review.

caveat emptor

niallo27 wrote: »

When have nphet not been worried. When we had 6 cases a day they were still saying they were worried, its loses all meaning.

Yeah still though, looks like they were right to be worried.