Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Clonmel1000

https://twitter.com/fatemperor/status/1314982494777667584?s=24

Dionaibh

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

23,301,552 new cases today.

1 death with covid. Over 70 people died from other causes - not reported by RTE.

Another day. Another day with 15-20% unemployment in the country.

Next x weeks are crucial :rolleyes::mad:

It's horrifying what the government and those doctors have done to the country, mental health, and society. Destroyed our natural instincts and destroyed the country.

Dionaibh

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/fatemperor/status/1314982494777667584?s=24

Ivor Cummins is a breath of fresh air. His videos are very interesting.

Beasty

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

But people dont like that, because he doesnt have a virology degree. They question his qualifications to plot numbers on the graph.

He's a chartered engineer. He has no more qualification than I have in this sphere. And I can certainly plot graphs

Penfailed

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

I wish the lockdown merchants realised this

I'm not a lockdown merchant...but I don't know anyone that doesn't realise that there's financial pain coming down the line.

3xh

Beasty wrote: »

He's a chartered engineer. He has no more qualification than I have in this sphere. And I can certainly plot graphs

But Beasty, Ivor is willing to verbalise what he sees in the graphs for peer review.

He’s up for debate. Do you see anything wrong in what he’s saying?

NPHET and our media just dump figures on the public every day and give no reasoned explanation as to why those figures are what they are.
Deaths up, we must lock down. And so on.

CruelSummer

hmmm wrote: »

I have to wonder about the bogeymen you construct in your head.

I'm more than happy for us to prioritise schools. I don't support shutting retail or outdoor premises before schools.

I was very much an anti-masker in that thread earlier in the year. I wear a mask now because public health experts tell me it's a good idea. I don't remember ever asking for children to wear masks, but I don't start breaking down in tears like the finale of the original Planet of the Apes if I see a child wearing one.

I don't support mandatory vaccination, but I think people who won't take a vaccination will need to be kept away from people they could potentially infect. They are big into telling everyone else how easy it is to isolate so it shouldn't be much of a problem to them.

Ok, but you do support mandatory vaccination. You’ve clearly stated on multiple threads that anyone who refused to take the vaccine should be effectively shut out of society.
No-one is breaking down in tears over children wearing masks. I don’t support them wearing masks for hours on end as they won’t physically be able to do it or learn while doing it. I can assure you many children were in floods of tears when missing their schools, peers and routines over the prolonged first lockdown.

charlie14

3xh wrote: »

But Beasty, Ivor is willing to verbalise what he sees in the graphs for peer review.

He’s up for debate. Do you see anything wrong in what he’s saying?

NPHET and our media just dump figures on the public every day and give no reasoned explanation as to why those figures are what they are.
Deaths up, we must lock down. And so on.

Ivor is very selective of just who he is up for debate with.
Dr. Dominic Pimenta a cardiology registrar has been ripping holes in him with fact checks for months now that Cummins has been running and hiding from.

Cummins is not even speaking from the position of his own qualifications.
He is a chemical engineer attempting to re-style himself as some sort of nutritional guru.
In fairness to him, good money in that game, but when it comes to taking medical advice I would be very slow to even consider doing so from a chemical engineer chasing the nutritional guru big bucks.

Captain_Crash

charlie14 wrote: »

In fairness to him, good money in that game, but when it comes to taking medical advice I would be very slow to even consider doing so from a chemical engineer chasing the nutritional guru big bucks.

To be fair, I mentioned in another thread that he’s not giving any medical advice. He’s literally taking data and providing his interpretation of it! You and many others may not agree but an awful lot more people are starting to listen to him and draw their own conclusions

Beasty

3xh wrote: »

But Beasty, Ivor is willing to verbalise what he sees in the graphs for peer review.

I've seen the figures. I've seen the graphs. I've discussed points extensively in this forum. So he's gained a "populist" following by feeding people information he feels they will buy in to. He has no expertise on viruses though, as I have none.

I do know how easy it is to present numbers (and graphs) in a way that supports a position someone is trying to get across rather than an unbiased presentation of facts. I have spent a lifetime dealing with numbers and know very well how they can be manipulated/abused

I know who I believe - scientists who are specialists in viruses, not chemical engineers. And there are plenty of virus specialists across the World who seem to adopt differing positions to Cummins - and their predictions made over how this virus may develop in the early days are being borne out now

Clonmel1000

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/fatemperor/status/1314982494777667584?s=24

Disgraceful to be downplaying the seriousness of the virus. This will not do anything to stop people breaking regulations, plenty of fools patting him on the back too. We need people to be afraid of the virus not lull them into a false sense of security.

The man hasn’t even the smallest clue about anything to do with health either, he needs to be discredited in the media before people start believing his fake news.

SusieBlue

I’m more afraid of what will happen to my future if I lose a second job this year to covid-19 than I am of the virus.

The virus isn’t the only bad thing out there or indeed the worst thing out there. There are far, far worse things that could happen to a person than contracting coronavirus.

Ginger n Lemon

Captain_Crash wrote: »

To be fair, I mentioned in another thread that he’s not giving any medical advice. He’s literally taking data and providing his interpretation of it! You and many others may not agree but an awful lot more people are starting to listen to him and draw their own conclusions

No he is not. He is plotting figures on a graph and talks about them.

Those NPHET scientists wanted level 5 this time 7 days ago. What happened 7 days later? We are still averaging 1 death a day with covid.... pretty telling isnt it :rolleyes: The amount of PHDs between those "geniuses"

Ginger n Lemon

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

Disgraceful to be downplaying the seriousness of the virus. This will not do anything to stop people breaking regulations, plenty of fools patting him on the back too. We need people to be afraid of the virus not lull them into a false sense of security.

The man hasn’t even the smallest clue about anything to do with health either, he needs to be discredited in the media before people start believing his fake news.

Mein Führer


Nox, its a seasonal illness, cases go up in the colder months - go down in the warmer months. Shutting down restaurants isnt gonna change a single thing. Especially given that 95% + of restaurants had great social distancing, sanitising and general safety.

Terrifying public every day will be far more damaging than any consequences from covid imaginable.

hmmm

Multipass wrote: »

Sorry to break this to you, but none of the vaccines currently being trialled prevent infection.

We don't actually know this, but thanks for the inside information from the trials.

We know that the monkeys tested in the initial phases of the Astra Zeneca/Oxford trial did have detectable virus in their nose after being blasted with large amounts of virus, but as some here will be eager to tell you just because the virus can be detected with sensitive tests does not mean they are infectious.

So we'll wait and see the results of phase 3. If the vaccines "merely" reduce Covid to the status of a headcold, that'll be enough for now for most and will go a long way to getting us out of this hole.

Silentcorner

It's crazy land out there...the cafes are open, but you can only sit outside in the October weather in an effort to suppress the spread of a flu like virus...you don't even need an €9 meal to protect you...in a pandemic that has seen empty or quiet hospitals since it spiked in March/April....following the patterns of virtually all known flu like virus that circulate through the human population at any given time.

Fingers crossed that cancer, heart disease and all the other ailments that kill people in huge numbers every year are all terrified of covid too...otherwise the next few years won't be pretty.

walus

Beasty wrote: »

I know who I believe - scientists who are specialists in viruses, not chemical engineers. And there are plenty of virus specialists across the World who seem to adopt differing positions to Cummins - and their predictions made over how this virus may develop in the early days are being borne out now

Anyone in particular that you have in mind?

snowcat

Beasty wrote: »

He's a chartered engineer. He has no more qualification than I have in this sphere. And I can certainly plot graphs

Our minister for health is a Mechanical Engineer.

3xh

Beasty wrote: »

I do know how easy it is to present numbers (and graphs) in a way that supports a position someone is trying to get across rather than an unbiased presentation of facts. I have spent a lifetime dealing with numbers and know very well how they can be manipulated/abused

I know who I believe - scientists who are specialists in viruses, not chemical engineers. And there are plenty of virus specialists across the World who seem to adopt differing positions to Cummins - and their predictions made over how this virus may develop in the early days are being borne out now

Like what NPHET/WHO/Governments/etc do?! Because they don’t ever lie. Or more to the point, deliberately allow confusion and misunderstanding of their stats for their own gain.

Regarding your second paragraph, are you saying there’s people who said we’d have the peaks we did during Mar-May, the troughs for cases, hospitalisations, ICU and Deaths over the summer and then the rise in cases only we’re now seeing?
And all right on cue?

If so, what’s their projection for how this current rise ends?! What timeframe and numbers for the 4 categories? And did they really correctly project the peaks first time? I thought the projections were for Armageddon basically, hence the lockdown and from that we did better than projected? You know of people who correctly called that?!

Surely these people should be on NPHET so we know when exactly to lock down unlike last week’s cock&bull story between the professionals and Government.

3xh

snowcat wrote: »

Our minister for health is a Mechanical Engineer.

.......and an Independent social democrat......

yosemitesam1

hmmm wrote: »

We don't actually know this, but thanks for the inside information from the trials.

We know that the monkeys tested in the initial phases of the Astra Zeneca/Oxford trial did have detectable virus in their nose after being blasted with large amounts of virus, but as some here will be eager to tell you just because the virus can be detected with sensitive tests does not mean they are infectious.

So we'll wait and see the results of phase 3. If the vaccines "merely" reduce Covid to the status of a headcold, that'll be enough for now for most and will go a long way to getting us out of this hole.

Unless any of the vaccines generate a strong mucosal response, they won't stop vaccinated people from being carriers.
All coronaviruses behave in a fundamentally different way to the likes of flu which makes this a certainty.

Beasty

3xh wrote: »

Regarding your second paragraph, are you saying there’s people who said we’d have the peaks we did during Mar-May, the troughs for cases, hospitalisations, ICU and Deaths over the summer and then the rise in cases only we’re now seeing?
And all right on cue?

I was talking on the global rather than Irish front

An example from this forum mentioning sources for the "wave" pattern we are now seeming to be experiencing

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113396401&postcount=75

There were specialists across the World saying we may never get a vaccine. There were experts saying we may encounter peaks and troughs with restrictions being relaxed then re-imposed in the hope we will get a vaccine. They were people saying that common colds were different forms of coronavirus, and we've never found a vaccine for that. And it's all documented particularly in the 25 threads we have dedicated to general discussion of this virus

The WHO have said today that attempting herd immunity without a vaccine is unethical and not possible anyway.

Beasty

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

The WHO have said today that attempting herd immunity without a vaccine is unethical and not possible anyway.

AFAIK, the extent, if any, of immunity from having caught this virus has not been established

charlie14

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

The WHO have said today that attempting herd immunity without a vaccine is unethical and not possible anyway.

A bit of a no brainer really when we look at the one country that attempted it has now rising cases like everywhere else, and a regional state where researches claimed it had been achieved, three days after that claim reimposed restrictions due to rising numbers.
Not only that, but nobody has a clue how to even measure what is required for herd immunity. Antibody test results have been shown to be useless..

Penfailed

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

its a seasonal illness, cases go up in the colder months - go down in the warmer months.

This is not yet proven. Hasn't stopped you posting unreliable information before so I suppose I shouldn't be surprised.

3xh

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

The WHO have said today that attempting herd immunity without a vaccine is unethical and not possible anyway.

They’ve also said lockdowns shouldn’t be used anymore. And they don’t just mean full on ones like Mar-May. But our experts aren’t listening to the WHO experts.

See? Experts don’t always agree.

hmmm

3xh wrote: »

They’ve also said lockdowns shouldn’t be used anymore. And they don’t just mean full on ones like Mar-May. But our experts aren’t listening to the WHO experts.

The WHO said lockdowns should not be the primary means of combating Covid.

They did not mean that countries should give up. They meant a combination of track and trace, social distancing and personal hygiene measures like handwashing and facemasks. As long as we have people ignoring the rules, we will have to resort to lockdowns.

3xh

Beasty wrote: »

I was talking on the global rather than Irish front

An example from this forum mentioning sources for the "wave" pattern we are now seeming to be experiencing

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113396401&postcount=75

There were specialists across the World saying we may never get a vaccine. There were experts saying we may encounter peaks and troughs with restrictions being relaxed then re-imposed in the hope we will get a vaccine. They were people saying that common colds were different forms of coronavirus, and we've never found a vaccine for that. And it's all documented particularly in the 25 threads we have dedicated to general discussion of this virus

Irish front or global front, doesn’t matter. Ireland has followed pretty much every other EU country with regards to our graph profile.

These experts you referenced did not say at the start that there’d be a near parallel rise in the 4 categories followed by the summer lull in all 4 categories again but that when the so-called second wave arrives, only positive cases would rise materially.

Nobody predicted what we’re seeing now, a plateau or disconnect of hospitalisations, ICU & deaths from case numbers.

Your posting is no different to the conspiracy theorist finding all sorts of ‘experts’ with graphs and studies to fit their narrative, Beasty.

Lundstram

ArthurDayne wrote: »

Lamenting the fact that not all people will abide by the restrictions is like lamenting the fact that 1+1=2. Human beings are literally biologically wired to want to socialise — with studies showing that socialising triggers the stimulation of dopamine in the brain. It is a natural evolutionary function that propels us to seek safety in groups and to propagate our species.

So, when you introduce restrictions to inhibit this fundamental element of human nature, two things are clear: (1) there is a high likelihood of poor compliance due to basic human nature — most particularly among those who don’t have life partners and families (e.g. most young people) and (2) widespread buy-in has to be carefully managed, particularly if required over a long period. Adding to this is the fact, whatever way you want to dress it up, that this virus is not a severe threat to the vast majority to the population — so it‘s difficult to engender the human instinct for self-preservation for people who are not overly threatened by the virus.

So lament it all you want, lament the fact that people are not complying with the suppression of their instincts for months on end. You may as well dress up as King Canute and stand on the beach lamenting the inexorable coming of the tide. The fact is, suppression of human nature requires both a sound rationale and an understanding of the end goal. The end goal of lockdown appears to be nothing more than “lock down only to re-open and then lock down again”. That is a different tale to the one which was told in March — the rationale for flattening the curve was to enable the ramping up of healthcare capacity.

That was a clear rationale, with a clear end goal, and therefore people by and large bought in. Unfortunately it was accompanied by a dishonest narrative which has been spun for months by media, politicians and people like yourself in our communities — a narrative that lockdowns and stringent restrictions are the ethical pathway and all naysayers are therefore, invariably, unethical people. And now we are all trapped because of that narrative, stuck in an endless loop of trying to prevent the deaths of mainly elderly people at the expense of absolutely every other form of vulnerability in our society. It’s ethics with blinkers — and is leading us further and further into long term societal damage.

Fantastic post. Articulated in a way most of us could only dream of. Bravo!