FF/FG/Green Government - part 2

FrancieBrady

Nobotty wrote: »

its dangerous to suggest that's a bad poll for FG when a lot of their high riding was pandemic management related
They are still 13 points ahead of GE 20
Thats nearly double SF's rise despite the opposition's relentless push back and when SF are the main opposition party
There is zero room for complacency

The Irish times politics podcast is interesting this week for anyone with a sub
Basically it says,if SF do a deal to be in government next time,their number one,over powering all else objective driven by its traditional core supporters will be a border poll
In doing one,the point was being made,the rest of their programme will probably move centre as they need unionists to vote for a UI,dumping a lot of the more left wing agenda to coax them
Moving to the centre could make them the biggest party on the island eventually

I have said this before - the volatility of FG's polling in both the election and polls is the dangerous thing for them. -4 in 5 weeks is a 'bad' poll for any party and it is dishonest to try and portray it any other way. Focusiing on one or two posters who may have predicted the demise of FG on an anonymous forum like some have done here, will not disguise that. That could just as easily happen in an election campaign like last time out, FG are on quicksand really.

Bannasidhe

markodaly wrote: »

With all due respect, many of the same people are still there just under new guises and names. Thus the mark of the left, always splitting and fighting among themselves.

.

The fact is there was no PBP in the Dail pre- 2011 and the Soc Dems weren't formed until 2015.

There was a lot called the Progressive Democrats, they were a right wing split from FF. They are dead now but still a drain on the taxpayer.
Later on there was a split from FG called Renua - they are now an angry man on Twitter complaining that Ireland is a matriarchy.

Bubbaclaus

Anyone else a bit alarmed by the Red C vaccine poll? Government will need a major education campaign there ASAP.

Ireland Thinks / Mail on Sunday
Q. Would you take a Covid-19 Vaccine?

% YES (By Party)
GP: 91%
LP: 89%
FF: 83%
FG: 81%
SD: 73%
S-PBP: 68%
AON: 64%
SF: 55%

28th November 2020
Sample: 1,044

Nobotty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I have said this before - the volatility of FG's polling in both the election and polls is the dangerous thing for them. -4 in 5 weeks is a 'bad' poll for any party and it is dishonest to try and portray it any other way. Focusiing on one or two posters who may have predicted the demise of FG on an anonymous forum like some have done here, will not disguise that. That could just as easily happen in an election campaign like last time out, FG are on quicksand really.

Its dishonest? Its about equal to their pandemic surge,so I'd be careful drawing any other conclusions and frankly disappointed given the pressure put towards them
If SF took or are taking the view that FG's fall or this government's will look after itself,Thats dangerous IMO
The Red C poll has its combined support actually more or less unchanged and despite a relentless push,those t.d's voting for it enjoy greater than 50% in that Red c
Those are facts not spin
Open goals yet no progress
Yes SF support is up but it looks to me now FG are out cannibalising the cannibal at the moment in terms of taking FF voters
Their rise since GE is nearly Double SF's
I can't say that loud enough
That kind of trend tells me two things,that the SF growth tool is veering towards the left vote pool as the more available centre wavering votes are spoken for, having moved one way or the other already and two,its saying beware FF and FG voters becoming increasingly friendly
SF's strategy now needs to be targeting that growing friendship as a major priority IMO

Solutionking

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Anyone else a bit alarmed by the Red C vaccine poll? Government will need a major education campaign there ASAP.

Ireland Thinks / Mail on Sunday
Q. Would you take a Covid-19 Vaccine?

% YES (By Party)
GP: 91%
LP: 89%
FF: 83%
FG: 81%
SD: 73%
S-PBP: 68%
AON: 64%
SF: 55%

28th November 2020
Sample: 1,044

Not really, airlines are blocking people if they don't have vaccine.

Bubbaclaus

Solutionking wrote: »

Not really, airlines are blocking people if they don't have vaccine.

Really? I've only heard of one airline and that was Qantas in Australia. Ryanair have said they wont bbe blocking anyone.

Solutionking

FrancieBrady wrote: »

4 point fall for FG back to 33% and SF rising to it's highest ever level, is a 'bad result for SF'? :D:D

It's almost exactly how I figured it. I would have thought FF might have taken a bit more, but maybe I misjudged just how bad things are for them.

Bad results for FG and Labour. (surprising too)

Who said it was a bad result for SF? I didn't see anyone say that at all. Please quote to correct me

Most of the posts are laughing because you and the rest have spent weeks on this forum saying everyone hates Leo, most hated leader in 100 years. SF threw everything at him including a no confidence vote. Yet he is still top:P
I think it is hillarious

Solutionking

Solutionking wrote: »

Not really, airlines are blocking people if they don't have vaccine.

What airlines and since when?

Solutionking

Deleted User wrote: »

What airlines and since when?

IAG group which includes Aerlingus, BA etc etc are pushing for a Covid 19 passport

Bannasidhe

Solutionking wrote: »

IAG group which includes Aerlingus, BA etc etc are pushing for a Covid 19 passport

'Pushing for' is not the same as 'banning'.

Do you have anything to support your claim of banning (bar Qantas which hardly affects Ireland)?

FrancieBrady

Solutionking wrote: »

Who said it was a bad result for SF? I didn't see anyone say that at all. Please quote to correct me

Most of the posts are laughing because you and the rest have spent weeks on this forum saying everyone hates Leo, most hated leader in 100 years. SF threw everything at him including a no confidence vote. Yet he is still top:P
I think it is hillarious

'I' have said 'everyone hates Leo'? or he is the 'most hated leader in 100 years'?

Please quote me say the above SK.

He has led his party to a fall of 4% in 5 weeks and that somehow is bad for SF is the point I was making.

The usual making a silk purse out of a sow's ear going on here.

Solutionking

Bannasidhe wrote: »

'Pushing for' is not that same as 'banning'.

Do you have anything to support your claim of banning (bar Qantas which hardly affects Ireland)?

I said "blocking" I never said "banning"

Solutionking

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'I' have said 'everyone hates Leo'? or he is the 'most hated leader in 100 years'?

Please quote me say the above SK.

He has led his party to a fall of 4% in 5 weeks and that somehow is bad for SF is the point I was making.

The usual making a silk purse out of a sow's ear going on here.

Any sign of that quote of people saying it was a bad result for SF?

We are all waiting

FrancieBrady

Solutionking wrote: »

Any sign of that quote of people saying it was a bad result for SF?

We are all waiting

I never said 'anyone' in particular said it. But the pile on was definitely suggesting that SF was expecting the demise of FG. Typified by this kind of posting:

So let me get this clear, Sinn Feinhave spent the last month whinging and crying about Leo the Leak and Seamus Woulfe and a whole lot of other bullish!t, but Fine Gael are still ahead of them in the polls?

And this is somehow a success for Sinn Fein

You however said 'I' said something and have once again failed to back it up when asked to do so.

Solutionking

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I never said 'anyone' in particular said it. But the pile on was definitely suggesting that SF was expecting the demise of FG. Typified by this kind of posting:



You however said 'I' said something and have once again failed to back it up when asked to do so.

So you lied.

FrancieBrady

Solutionking wrote: »

So you lied.

No...I never said somebody said it. I 'parsed' what was being said. So there is no specific quote.

YOU however said this and produced nothing to back it up when asked twice now:

Solutionking wrote:

Most of the posts are laughing because you and the rest have spent weeks on this forum saying everyone hates Leo, most hated leader in 100 years.

Now can you produce a quote from me saying 'everyone hates Leo' or he is 'the most hated leader in 100 years'

golfball37

Leo Varadkars leadership has seen SF go from an angry fringe party to viable govt leading candidate party. It’s some legacy he will be leaving us, meanwhile his party members will cheer him to the rooftops without question. Sounding more and more like Adams reign of the shinners by the day.

When we are being taxed to the hilt under a SF govt I know who I will be blaming.

Cluedo Monopoly

Data talks. Fine Gael seats...

2011 GE = 76
2016 GE = 50
2020 GE = 35

Bubbaclaus

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Data talks. Fine Gael seats...

2011 GE = 76
2016 GE = 50
2020 GE = 35

Or to give a more long term view:

2002 GE = 31
2007 GE = 51
2011 GE = 76
2016 GE = 50
2020 GE = 35

The ebs and flows of party popularity. As seen throughout history, the party in government typically sheds popularity the longer it is in Government, and then starts building it up again when eventually in opposition.

markodaly

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Anyone else a bit alarmed by the Red C vaccine poll? Government will need a major education campaign there ASAP.

Ireland Thinks / Mail on Sunday
Q. Would you take a Covid-19 Vaccine?

% YES (By Party)
GP: 91%
LP: 89%
FF: 83%
FG: 81%
SD: 73%
S-PBP: 68%
AON: 64%
SF: 55%

28th November 2020
Sample: 1,044

Why am I not surprised that the anti-vax crowd are more likely to vote for SF and the far left?
Time and time again I have said it, they are the Trump wing of the political spectrum in Ireland.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

4 point fall for FG back to 33% and SF rising to it's highest ever level, is a 'bad result for SF'? :D:D

Who said this is a bad result for SF.
Please quote the post which explicitly said this.


*Actually a 3 point fall, which is in the margin of error.

markodaly

Bannasidhe wrote: »

The fact is there was no PBP in the Dail pre- 2011 and the Soc Dems weren't formed until 2015.

And who said there was?

There was a lot called the Progressive Democrats, they were a right wing split from FF. They are dead now but still a drain on the taxpayer.

Elaborate?

Later on there was a split from FG called Renua - they are now an angry man on Twitter complaining that Ireland is a matriarchy.

A split? That is being generous. :D
The only TD that left there was Lucinda Creighton.

You may as well say the Healy Rae's are split from FF and that Aontu is a split from SF.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Who said this is a bad result for SF.
Please quote the post which explicitly said this.


*Actually a 3 point fall, which is in the margin of error.

Could you point me to anywhere in that post that I said 'somebody' said it?

I'll be waiting I reckon.

major interest

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Anyone else a bit alarmed by the Red C vaccine poll? Government will need a major education campaign there ASAP.

Ireland Thinks / Mail on Sunday
Q. Would you take a Covid-19 Vaccine?

% YES (By Party)
GP: 91%
LP: 89%
FF: 83%
FG: 81%
SD: 73%
S-PBP: 68%
AON: 64%
SF: 55%

28th November 2020
Sample: 1,044

You would hope that this is more of a “dissenter” poll number rather than how people would actually behave i.e. some opposed to the govt would be likely to say no to such a question in a poll but in reality they would take a vaccine.

Bannasidhe

Solutionking wrote: »

I said "blocking" I never said "banning"

'Blocking' is similar to 'banning' as both mean 'to prevent'.
'Pushing for' mean 'requesting'/'calling for'.

Do you see the difference?

Now, do you have any evidence to support anyone relevant in an Irish context is 'preventing' unvaccinated people from flying?

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Could you point me to anywhere in that post that I said 'somebody' said it?

I'll be waiting I reckon.

You quoted

is a 'bad result for SF'?

The key characters there are the ' ' which means a quote.
If it's not a quote from someone then what is it?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

You quoted



The key characters there are the ' ' which means a quote.
If it's not a quote from someone then what is it?

This is how you quote somebody:

markodaly wrote:

The key characters there are the ' ' which means a quote.
If it's not a quote from someone then what is it?

Which I didn't do, therefore I didn't quote anybody. I parsed what some posters had been saying, as already demonstrated and used the tags to do that. If you didn't understand that, it is not my fault. Trust me, if I am quoting somebody in particular I use the method above.
Still waiting for SK to back quotes that he clearly attributed to me.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Which I didn't do, therefore I didn't quote anybody.

Yes, you did. You used the ' ' characters which using standard grammar is a quote.

So who was it you were quoting or were you just making it all up?

Cluedo Monopoly

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Or to give a more long term view:

2002 GE = 31
2007 GE = 51
2011 GE = 76
2016 GE = 50
2020 GE = 35

The ebs and flows of party popularity. As seen throughout history, the party in government typically sheds popularity the longer it is in Government, and then starts building it up again when eventually in opposition.

Yes but I don't think the ebb and flow will involved FF and FG from now on. I think the FF-to-FG seesaw is over and one of those parties will become an irrelevance. Ideally they should merge but that probably won't happen given the way FG have treated their coalition partners in recent months.

Eric Cartman

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Anyone else a bit alarmed by the Red C vaccine poll? Government will need a major education campaign there ASAP.

Ireland Thinks / Mail on Sunday
Q. Would you take a Covid-19 Vaccine?

% YES (By Party)
GP: 91%
LP: 89%
FF: 83%
FG: 81%
SD: 73%
S-PBP: 68%
AON: 64%
SF: 55%

28th November 2020
Sample: 1,044

Suprised pbp and sf are that high actually.