FF/FG/Green Government - part 2

ExMachina1000

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

Latest Red C poll. 50% of the idiots who voted FF last Feb seeing the error of their ways. Dropped from 22% to just 11% support. We need a general election asap.

Who will you vote for if you don't mind me asking

blanch152

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

I actually think if current polling trends continue, FF will be kingmakers believe it or not. If what we saw in the RedC poll materialised in a General Election, then FG and SF would each get about 60 seats and FF will get 16-17 seats. That's very close to overall majority territory. Throw in a few independents or a smaller party like the Soc Dems or Labour and it's game on. I don't think the Greens will want to go in.

If you count out FF it's going to be a coalition of 5-6 parties and it won't last a wet week.

I don't see how it is possible to have a Government next time without either FG or FF as much as some might hope to otherwise be the case. If the vaccination programme really steps up a gear next month and the month after and we start getting things open (and they stay open) then the Government will get a bounce in the polls (just look at what's happening in the UK) and as FF are in that department they will surely get some credit.

Of course longer term things like housing and having to pay off the debts incurred from Covid, not to mention implementing Green Party ideas (like those to achieve a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030) will knock lumps out of FF and FG.

The government are consistently on 46-48% of the polls, enough to be returned again with a majority. If they get a bounce, it becomes a certainty. FF would have to walk away from a shared Taoiseach to vote Mary-Lou as Taoiseach.

Bishop of hope

blanch152 wrote: »

The government are consistently on 46-48% of the polls, enough to be returned again with a majority. If they get a bounce, it becomes a certainty. FF would have to walk away from a shared Taoiseach to vote Mary-Lou as Taoiseach.

If FF returned 20 or less seats in an election I doubt any party with fifty plus seats would offer them a shared Taoiseach role.
IMO if FF want a bounce, MM has to go.
I'd say consideration of Leo's position is ongoing with a lot in FG too.
They both need the vaccination roll out to improve vastly for any bounce, restrictions have the electorate frustrated and demanding more action and clearer sight of the end of this nightmare.
They are anything but clear on our current situation.
It might not be their fault, but it's their watch and they aren't handling it well, they are losing the confidence of the electorate by the day with the conflicting messages coming out.
These rogue vaccinations aren't helping right now either.

Floppybits

Bishop of hope wrote: »

If FF returned 20 or less seats in an election I doubt any party with fifty plus seats would offer them a shared Taoiseach role.
IMO if FF want a bounce, MM has to go.
I'd say consideration of Leo's position is ongoing with a lot in FG too.
They both need the vaccination roll out to improve vastly for any bounce, restrictions have the electorate frustrated and demanding more action and clearer sight of the end of this nightmare.
They are anything but clear on our current situation.
It might not be their fault, but it's their watch and they aren't handling it well, they are losing the confidence of the electorate by the day with the conflicting messages coming out.
These rogue vaccinations aren't helping right now either.

Whole heartedly agree.

Loafing Oaf

Bishop of hope wrote: »

If FF returned 20 or less seats in an election I doubt any party with fifty plus seats would offer them a shared Taoiseach role.
IMO if FF want a bounce, MM has to go.
I'd say consideration of Leo's position is ongoing with a lot in FG too.
They both need the vaccination roll out to improve vastly for any bounce,.

Is a bounce up from where they are now a realistic hope for FG? IMO 30% of FPV in the next GE is the very most they could hope for, unless FF are wiped out altogether. Obviously if Leo gets a criminal conviction he'll have to go, but if he gets past the leak business I don't see why he won't be leading them into the GE

Leonard Hofstadter

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Is a bounce up from where they are now a realistic hope for FG? IMO 30% of FPV in the next GE is the very most they could hope for, unless FF are wiped out altogether. Obviously if Leo gets a criminal conviction he'll have to go, but if he gets past the leak business I don't see why he won't be leading them into the GE

Agreed, if nothing comes out of the ongoing investigation then Varadkar will be leading FG into the next election.

If there is something then he's toast.

FG have been plodding along at about 30% more or less for the past 5-6 months, don't think they'll get much of a bounce but FF could well do if the vaccination programme picks up a gear and we start to get our freedoms back (and they are sustained).

Loafing Oaf

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

I actually think if current polling trends continue, FF will be kingmakers believe it or not. If what we saw in the RedC poll materialised in a General Election, then FG and SF would each get about 60 seats and FF will get 16-17 seats. That's very close to overall majority territory. Throw in a few independents or a smaller party like the Soc Dems or Labour and it's game on. I don't think the Greens will want to go in.

If you count out FF it's going to be a coalition of 5-6 parties and it won't last a wet week.

If a non-FF/FG government is a realistic possibility after the next GE, I think there will be massive pressure on all sections of the 'left' (including the Greens) to make it happen. IMO in that scenario SF, if they really believe in their 'project', will do everything possible to form a government without FF.

FrancieBrady

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

Agreed, if nothing comes out of the ongoing investigation then Varadkar will be leading FG into the next election.

If there is something then he's toast.

FG have been plodding along at about 30% more or less for the past 5-6 months, don't think they'll get much of a bounce but FF could well do if the vaccination programme picks up a gear and we start to get our freedoms back (and they are sustained).

I doubt FG would be stupid enough to allow Varadkar lead into another election.

If he escapes charge I think he will fall on his own sword for some non-toxic reason or a leadership challenge will emerge. The back room boys and girls won't take the risk.

Leonard Hofstadter

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If a non-FF/FG government is a realistic possibility after the next GE, I think there will be massive pressure on all sections of the 'left' (including the Greens) to make it happen. IMO in that scenario SF, if they really believe in their 'project', will do everything possible to form a government without FF.

If the numbers are there I hope it happens. I'm sick of politicians looking to go to the Dáil only to whinge and moan from the comfort of the opposition benches.

Plus I believe it won't last a wet week (as they say, the first item on the agenda of the left is the split - the Greens are giving an excellent example of how that is playing out at present) and it will hopefully teach the electorate an important lesson that all the crackpot left wing nonsense we hear from the opposition benches is nothing more than hot air and we need the grown ups in charge.

Floppybits

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If a non-FF/FG government is a realistic possibility after the next GE, I think there will be massive pressure on all sections of the 'left' (including the Greens) to make it happen. IMO in that scenario SF, if they really believe in their 'project', will do everything possible to form a government without FF.

The problem with the left is that outside of SF the other parties are too small. It wouldn't be a stable government. What is needed another medium sized party on the left instead of these bitty parties. The only way that I can see a SF led government is if they win 70 seats and can then form a government with one or 2 smaller parties. No way can a government be formed between SF, SD, LAB, PBP, AU and independents.

Floppybits

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

If the numbers are there I hope it happens. I'm sick of politicians looking to go to the Dáil only to whinge and moan from the comfort of the opposition benches.

Plus I believe it won't last a wet week (as they say, the first item on the agenda of the left is the split - the Greens are giving an excellent example of how that is playing out at present) and it will hopefully teach the electorate an important lesson that all the crackpot left wing nonsense we hear from the opposition benches is nothing more than hot air and we need the grown ups in charge.

Yeah but the electorate are also pi**ed with the performance of your so called "grown ups" that are currently in Government. Can you honestly hold your hand up and say that this government have put in a stellar performance so far?

Loafing Oaf

Floppybits wrote: »

No way can a government be formed between SF, SD, LAB, PBP, AU and independents.

Why can't it? What are TDs there for if not to form/support a government in the right circumstances? I fully accept there would be question marks over the durability of such a government, but I just think there would be a massive onus on all shades of the left to at least set up such a government and see how it worked out if the opportunity was there.

Geuze

Floppybits wrote: »

The problem with the left is that outside of SF the other parties are too small. It wouldn't be a stable government. What is needed another medium sized party on the left instead of these bitty parties. The only way that I can see a SF led government is if they win 70 seats and can then form a government with one or 2 smaller parties. No way can a government be formed between SF, SD, LAB, PBP, AU and independents.

SF have 37 of the 160 seats.

Might they be expected to get more seats in the next GE? It seems so.

As there are 39 constituencies, this means getting second seats.

You suggest 70 SF seats.

That seems very high? It would mean SF getting a second seat in many constituencies.

ELM327

I despise SF and any left government.

The best thing for anyone that is opposed to SF is SF leading a left wing coalition government.
The jump from the 45-50 max seats SF could hope to get, to 70 required to lead, would require bringing in so many left wing parties that the government would be unstable and not last.

Then SF would not get in again as they have shown what we all suspect, they can't govern.

Floppybits

Geuze wrote: »

SF have 37 of the 160 seats.

Might they be expected to get more seats in the next GE? It seems so.

As there are 39 constituencies, this means getting second seats.

You suggest 70 SF seats.

That seems very high? It would mean SF getting a second seat in many constituencies.

I am saying for stable government to be formed without either of FG or FF, SF would need to win about 70 seats and hope that 2 of the other smaller pick up the remainder of the seats needed to form a government. I just don't see a rainbow government made up of 5 or 6 different itsy bitsy parties like Aontu, PBP and what ever else your having as a stable government. I would be surprised if a government like that lasted 100 days.

James Brown

This is a good one:

The Government is expected to approve the establishment of a high-level working group to review collective bargaining rights and the industrial relations landscape in Ireland.

The proposal will be brought to Cabinet today by Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment Leo Varadkar.

The fella who leaked a confidential government document to his pal, the then head of a rival union is looking to review collective bargaining rights and industrial relations. Will he be making leaking negotiation documents okay and any such rule retroactive?

Seriously, would having him involved instill confidence and a level of trust?

Geuze

ELM327 wrote: »

I despise SF and any left government.

The best thing for anyone that is opposed to SF is SF leading a left wing coalition government.
The jump from the 45-50 max seats SF could hope to get, to 70 required to lead, would require bringing in so many left wing parties that the government would be unstable and not last.

Then SF would not get in again as they have shown what we all suspect, they can't govern.

While I don't despise SF, I do agree that in one way I would like to see them in power, if only to (painfully) prove that their budgetary plans are unrealistic.

JeffryMichl

They can’t go anywhere that they’ll pay less

ExMachina1000

2 billion per year is the estimated loss to the Irish exchequer when/if a deal is done on corporation taxes globally.

The golden goose is about to come under pressure from the US and EU

FrancieBrady

Bishop of hope wrote: »

If FF returned 20 or less seats in an election I doubt any party with fifty plus seats would offer them a shared Taoiseach role.
IMO if FF want a bounce, MM has to go.
I'd say consideration of Leo's position is ongoing with a lot in FG too.
They both need the vaccination roll out to improve vastly for any bounce, restrictions have the electorate frustrated and demanding more action and clearer sight of the end of this nightmare.
They are anything but clear on our current situation.
It might not be their fault, but it's their watch and they aren't handling it well, they are losing the confidence of the electorate by the day with the conflicting messages coming out.
These rogue vaccinations aren't helping right now either.

That is exactly why Micheál opened the door to SF on the night of the election. He thought at the time he was gonna finish on a much higher seat count and wouldn't have to share the Taoiseach role. When it became clear parity in seat numbers was going to happen, he reverted to his 'never do business with SF' stance. He couldn't hack the concept of 'ladies first' in negotiations on who would be Taoiseach first.

a very cool kid

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is exactly why Micheál opened the door to SF on the night of the election. He thought at the time he was gonna finish on a much higher seat count and wouldn't have to share the Taoiseach role. When it became clear parity in seat numbers was going to happen, he reverted to his 'never do business with SF' stance. He couldn't hack the concept of 'ladies first' in negotiations on who would be Taoiseach first.

Mary Lou ruled out FF and FG first:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-sinn-f%C3%A9in-to-push-to-form-government-as-high-profile-figures-lose-seats-1.4166988?mode=amp

Miggeldy

a very cool kid wrote: »

Mary Lou ruled out FF and FG first:

Are we reading different articles?

Mary Lou McDonald

“I also have consistently said that I will talk to and listen to everybody, I think that is what grown-ups do and that is what democracy demands.”

FrancieBrady

a very cool kid wrote: »

Mary Lou ruled out FF and FG first:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-sinn-f%C3%A9in-to-push-to-form-government-as-high-profile-figures-lose-seats-1.4166988?mode=amp

We are discussing MM.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/martin-opens-the-door-to-coalition-with-sinn-fein-38941313.html

BTW Mary Lou says in that article:

“I also have consistently said that I will talk to and listen to everybody, I think that is what grown-ups do and that is what democracy demands.”

Bishop of hope

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is exactly why Micheál opened the door to SF on the night of the election. He thought at the time he was gonna finish on a much higher seat count and wouldn't have to share the Taoiseach role. When it became clear parity in seat numbers was going to happen, he reverted to his 'never do business with SF' stance. He couldn't hack the concept of 'ladies first' in negotiations on who would be Taoiseach first.

The SF mindset is still to play the hard done by, nó one would talk to us routine.
It's as if democracy was affronted by their exclusion from govt.
That's no the case and party's with larger seats in the Dail have had to sit in opposition to coalitions before.
SF are victims of their own intransigence I think, and even their arrogance, as much as they call others out on theirs.
It's the SF way or no way.
Until they learn to bend and compromise they won't be in coalition with anyone I feel.

FrancieBrady

Bishop of hope wrote: »

The SF mindset is still to play the hard done by, nó one would talk to us routine.
It's as if democracy was affronted by their exclusion from govt.
That's no the case and party's with larger seats in the Dail have had to sit in opposition to coalitions before.
SF are victims of their own intransigence I think, and even their arrogance, as much as they call others out on theirs.
It's the SF way or no way.
Until they learn to bend and compromise they won't be in coalition with anyone I feel.

Just recalling the facts with backup for them Bish.

You outlined what happened in your post and I never said boo about being 'hard done by'. You just invented that to make some sort of reply.

blanch152

Bishop of hope wrote: »

The SF mindset is still to play the hard done by, nó one would talk to us routine.
It's as if democracy was affronted by their exclusion from govt.
That's no the case and party's with larger seats in the Dail have had to sit in opposition to coalitions before.
SF are victims of their own intransigence I think, and even their arrogance, as much as they call others out on theirs.
It's the SF way or no way.
Until they learn to bend and compromise they won't be in coalition with anyone I feel.

Pretty accurate account of what happened. Singing rebel songs and shouting Up the Ra on election night while falsely claiming to have won the election was enough to put all other parties off.

Bishop of hope

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Just recalling the facts with backup for them Bish.

You outlined what happened in your post and I never said boo about being 'hard done by'. You just invented that to make some sort of reply.

Ah Francie, you invented what you would like to believe Michael thought and why he acted as he did.
I'm sure in ways you're right perhaps and if FF had gotten ten more seats they would have been prepared to talk to SF more perhaps, but if SF had gone into coalition with FF they would have had to sell out so it wasn't going to happen.
If it had I'm pretty sure you and the other shinner cohort would be here defending the govt to the hilt at present and we wouldn't be one bit further in than we are now.
It makes grand reading on a slow day, humerous even, to see the latest whinge go up.

FrancieBrady

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Ah Francie, you invented what you would like to believe Michael thought and why he acted as he did.
I'm sure in ways you're right perhaps and if FF had gotten ten more seats they would have been prepared to talk to SF more perhaps, but if SF had gone into coalition with FF they would have had to sell out so it wasn't going to happen.
If it had I'm pretty sure you and the other shinner cohort would be here defending the govt to the hilt at present and we wouldn't be one bit further in than we are now.
It makes grand reading on a slow day, humerous even, to see the latest whinge go up.

Why do you think he did what he did? 'Open the door to SF and then when the seat numbers didn't materialise, close it again'?

I would be criticising any government that fails to do what it said it would do.

Loafing Oaf

Bishop of hope wrote: »

SF are victims of their own intransigence I think, and even their arrogance, as much as they call others out on theirs.
It's the SF way or no way.
Until they learn to bend and compromise they won't be in coalition with anyone I feel.

Both FF and FG categorically ruled out any deal with SF before the election. Martin wavered a bit in the immediate aftermath of the election but reverted to the party line. How is SF's 'intransigence' in any way responsible for this?

Bishop of hope

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Both FF and FG categorically ruled out any deal with SF before the election. Martin wavered a bit in the immediate aftermath of the election but reverted to the party line. How is SF's 'intransigence' in any way responsible for this?

They ruled out coalition with each other prior to the election too btw.