Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP
Options
Comments
-
-
My totally unscientific models say that 206 cases for Dublin tonight would mean we're still on a very slow downward track. "Good" would be 190 or less. But ideally 166 or less.BringBackMick wrote: »Crucial number for me tonight is Dublin... of we are talking about around 1000 nationally, I would be hoping Dublin isn't much more than 200 to confirm the reduced growth rate after Level 3 enacted.
Beware: Idle speculation
If you look at the charts they produced during 1918 there's an uncanny likeness to this. Small jump at the start - March in the US, May/June in Europe - a couple of months of calm, huge spike around October, decrease to December, smaller jump around January/February.
The charts also suggest that there's typically no more than 4 weeks - at most 6 - between the start of a steep increase in cases, and their peak. Which holds out four our cases in March - steep incline started around March 18th, peaked around April 15th. Exactly four weeks.
Of course, this depends on knowing where the steep climb actually starts.
But taking this unscientific idle speculation and looking at peaks and troughs in other countries suggests that our case load may peak sometime around now, or perhaps the end of the month.
Wishful thinking, perhaps. But it also has to be remembered that case numbers can't rise indefinitely.0 -
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-netherlands-closes-restaurants-and-bars-in-new-partial-lockdown-1.4380916
Talk about a sign of things to come here. If an intelligent lockdown doesn't work, a stupid one is the only option.
The die has already been cast for us. There's 1200 cases in NI and 1300 positive swabs here today. 2500 more people who are now testing positive as being infected with this virus. If all those people infected just two people, in a week there'll be 5000 more people with asymptomatic or asymptomatic covid walking around this island. We're not catching even close to all of the cases and transmission is now widespread in 1/3 of secondary schools and approaching 10% of primary schools with no contact tracing happening.
That is plainly unsustainable. SAGE gave the advice that the two most meaningful changes to be made to stem transmission are for everyone to work from home and for schools to be closed.
Source: https://skwawkbox.org/2020/10/14/explosive-sage-chart-shows-government-fully-aware-closing-pubs-and-not-schools-will-have-minimal-impact-on-second-wave/
Irish government on schools :pac:
0 -
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
You can shut down everything, except for Schools and cases would still rise.
Meanwhile, NPHET and the Government...
"Tony, will you be closing schools? Only place left open and cases are skyrocketing"
"So...In response to your question and in relation to all other factors, there is no evidence that schools are a factor in this"
And for the record, where I live, it is rampant in young people in schools. They're bringing it home and look what's happening.
But yeah, hotels, bars and restaurants...They're the real enemy here 0 -
-
You can shut down everything, except for Schools and cases would still rise.
Meanwhile, NPHET and the Government...
"Tony, will you be closing schools? Only place left open and cases are skyrocketing"
"So...In response to your question and in relation to all other factors, there is no evidence that schools are a factor in this"
And for the record, where I live, it is rampant in young people in schools. They're bringing it home and look what's happening.
But yeah, hotels, bars and restaurants...They're the real enemy here
That could also be
"And for the record, where I live, it is rampant in young people. They're bringing it from home into schools and look what's happening."0 -
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
-
Well the next press conference we should have more details from professor Nolan about cases in schools.https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-netherlands-closes-restaurants-and-bars-in-new-partial-lockdown-1.4380916
Talk about a sign of things to come here. If an intelligent lockdown doesn't work, a stupid one is the only option.
The die has already been cast for us. There's 1200 cases in NI and 1300 positive swabs here today. 2500 more people who are now testing positive as being infected with this virus. If all those people infected just two people, in a week there'll be 5000 more people with asymptomatic or asymptomatic covid walking around this island. We're not catching even close to all of the cases and transmission is now widespread in 1/3 of secondary schools and approaching 10% of primary schools with no contact tracing happening.
That is plainly unsustainable. SAGE gave the advice that the two most meaningful changes to be made to stem transmission are for everyone to work from home and for schools to be closed.
Source: https://skwawkbox.org/2020/10/14/explosive-sage-chart-shows-government-fully-aware-closing-pubs-and-not-schools-will-have-minimal-impact-on-second-wave/
As pointed out numerous times the % incident rate in 0-14 year olds hasn't increased in relation to other age groups that would show a significant spread.
Another simple option is seeing how many cases have occured in households with school going children and how many occured in households without school going children. If the % is split equally, it should be pretty definitive.0 -
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
TheValeyard wrote: »I'd say Roscommon. Just brick it up. Maybe put an iron dome roof over it. Nothing to do with Covid.
If you include Mayo, we have a deal 0
This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement