Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

MelbourneMan

vafankillar wrote: »

do we actually know what the cause of the rise in cases is?

We do. It is the interraction of people. Whether that is in a school, shop, office, factory, public house, or whatever is rather incidental to determining the action to take. In each case, the importance and societal and economic impact put on each of these elements is the predominant influence on the decision making process guiding corrective action.

It is curious that the general population seems fixated on the locus of transmission. It is perhaps motivated and indicative of conscious or unconsious bias in the discussion by interested parties in preserving continuity in their own sector rather than a true analysis. But it is largely an irrelevant discussion, and misses the point.

Billy Ocean

bb1234567 wrote: »

Deaths down to a trickle in Brazil, less than 300 on a weekday, lowest daily death toll since late April

would you believe those numbers...there leader is cut from the same cloth as mr trump

Renjit

Billy Ocean wrote: »

would you believe those numbers...there leader is cut from the same cloth as mr trump

You know...he is a smart man, just like Trump :pac:

MelbourneMan

frank8211 wrote: »

so why are sports practitioners from all types so frequently in the news about positive tests

Sports people make news headlines. Joe Soap does not. You are seeing a biased filtering in the news which is not representative of the overall sample testing positive.

bb1234567

Billy Ocean wrote: »

would you believe those numbers...there leader is cut from the same cloth as mr trump

Surprisingly Brazil's confirmed covid deaths are quite similar to their excess deaths figures. Doesn't seem like a dramatic underestimate. It's unlikely that a country as large as Brazil would only have on wave though, Russia going to second, Iran and USA going to their third

owlbethere

rob316 wrote: »

There will be no level 5, it ain't in the budget announced today. Level 3 with some tweaks and we'll have to make do.

I think it is the right call. A level 5 would be diasterous for the retail sector and jobs especially now before Christmas. It's not going to target the problem area where spread is occurring. There's a village in Galway with a new cluster of cases. There was a football match win last week for Moycullen and there are cases arising from that. I don't know if exposures happened at the match or the afters. There was some partying afterwards apparently. It's parties and home gatherings that's causing cases to rise. A level 5 isn't going to target this type of spread.

Billy Ocean

Billy Ocean wrote: »

would you believe those numbers...there leader is cut from the same cloth as mr trump

Early estimate suggested the official figures from Brazil were underestimating deaths there by 33%. If this is the case already more than0.1% of the population have died of Covid and likely 40 million plus cases. At this level, even rudimentary controls would slow the spread as a significant portion of the population will have already been infected. This would naturally slow the growth. Will still have a long tail

Billy Ocean

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Early estimate suggested the official figures from Brazil were underestimating deaths there by 33%. If this is the case already more than0.1% of the population have died of Covid and likely 40 million plus cases. At this level, even rudimentary controls would slow the spread as a significant portion of the population will have already been infected. This would naturally slow the growth. Will still have a long tail

like alot of things with Covid we'll probably never know the true picture

MelbourneMan

owlbethere wrote: »

It's parties and home gatherings that's causing cases to rise. A level 5 isn't going to target this type of spread.

I can refer you to the following answer, which again, applies.

http://https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114920334&postcount=229

Messi19

In terms of track and trace are they still only covering the previous 48 hours pre symptoms or are they actually trying to trace the source?

UrbanFret

Goldengirl wrote: »

What difference does it make whether they did or not ?
Apart from the obvious disappointment and distress to both the patients, their families and the hospital staff involved .
These are people infected who are already vulnerable and now are 4 times more at risk of complications than they were now they have Covid .
These people still have to counted whether they got it in hospital or not!
They are doubly sick , and are taking up hospital beds .
There is too much concentration on numbers here.
It has always been stressed that if numbers in the community are rising it is more difficult to prevent those vulnerable in nursing homes from getting it .
Hospitals are the same risk as a very high percentage of those in hospital are elderly or vulnerable.

The pont I was making was in regard to the sensational headlines surrounding the dramatic increase in Covid cases in Cavan general. The implication being that they had been admitted in the last couple of days because of covid which simply isn't true.

Messi19

Messi19 wrote: »

In terms of track and trace are they still only covering the previous 48 hours pre symptoms or are they actually trying to trace the source?

The resources required to trace the source would be immense given it could have been anytime in the previous 14 days

Rayne Wooney

I was in the city centre the other day around lunch time, and there were approx 50-60 14-18 year olds littered around the immediate vicinity of a Tesco, eating breakfast rolls, in groups of 15,10, 6 no masks obviously.

I just don’t see how we won’t need stop-start lockdowns for another year at least at this rate, but the country will be in financial ruin. What is the plan?

Away With The Fairies

Funsterdelux wrote: »

A good read if one is unsure on airbourne transmission.

The coronavirus is airborne -- what that means for you

I think the HSE is being positive with this one. They don't seem to think it's airborne and won't update their website on how covid is spread.

Away With The Fairies

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I think the HSE is being positive with this one. They don't seem to think it's airborne and won't update their website on how covid is spread.

Exact quote from article:

“According to the CDC, the coronavirus mainly spreads through direct and close contact, such as talking to someone without a mask in close quarters. It sometimes spreads through airborne transmission and occasionally spreads through indirect contact, such as touching infected surfaces and then touching your nose, mouth or eyes.“


Why focus more on where it sometimes spreads rather than where it mainly spreads? Airborne is a red herring, it happens, but it mainly spreads through close contact, and controlling the virus involves eliminating as many of the opportunities for transmission as we can, and the biggest opportunity to do so is with measures to address close contact

igCorcaigh

The airborne issue is an academic thing, has no impact on public health advice.

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The airborne issue is an academic thing, has no impact on public health advice.

It has implications for any indoor gathering, schools, offices, restaurants etc. Which is why i believe the Government won't want to admit it. If they do how could they tell teachers and pupils to go spend the day in classrooms.

caveat emptor

Well SAGE committee think schools and universities closing has the largest impact on reducing numbers and the R number.

Very good document detailing what the NPHET equivalent in UK think the impact of various measures has on the epidemic.

No easy options.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf



https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1316137945594822656?s=20

lolie

spookwoman wrote: »

I'll post the numbers here in case people miss em on the old thread if ok.

Sorry if its been posted already but has anyone a link for the site where these images are from?

speckle

lolie wrote: »

Sorry if its been posted already but has anyone a link for the site where these images are from?

That is a boards e state secret.... Spookwoman does a lot of the amazing work collating and doing up these nice and easy charts to read. I know the sources were posted way back but If you ask, maybe again they will magically be re posted.:)

nah have a look down the headings on the left side... you see briefing, testing hub and epidemiological reports etc..

owlbethere

NHPET highlighted a cluster of cases that would highly indicate this virus is airborne. An couple infected with the virus went out socialising a lot. They went to a restaurant and a table of 4 or 6 people that was nearby became infected. I forget the number of people at the next table. 4 staff members also became infected. In some places tables are not spaced out far enough and social distancing measures are poor. The 4 staff members becoming infected is the one that jumps out the most to me. Staff usually have minimal contact with a customer/table. Their interactions are usually brief in nature, yet 4 staff became infected.

ACitizenErased

owlbethere wrote: »

NHPET highlighted a cluster of cases that would highly indicate this virus is airborne. An couple infected with the virus went out socialising a lot. They went to a restaurant and a table of 4 or 6 people that was nearby became infected. I forget the number of people at the next table. 4 staff members also became infected. In some places tables are not spaced out far enough and social distancing measures are poor. The 4 staff members becoming infected is the one that jumps out the most to me. Staff usually have minimal contact with a customer/table. Their interactions are usually brief in nature, yet 4 staff became infected.

Menus? Cutlery, plates, napkins, taking the order, etc. You can't really deduce 'airborne' from that.

speckle

owlbethere wrote: »

NHPET highlighted a cluster of cases that would highly indicate this virus is airborne. An couple infected with the virus went out socialising a lot. They went to a restaurant and a table of 4 or 6 people that was nearby became infected. I forget the number of people at the next table. 4 staff members also became infected. In some places tables are not spaced out far enough and social distancing measures are poor. The 4 staff members becoming infected is the one that jumps out the most to me. Staff usually have minimal contact with a customer/table. Their interactions are usually brief in nature, yet 4 staff became infected.

You also need to look at the ventillation/aircon system too. In fact what I would want is a film of the whole meal etc.

speckle

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Menus? Cutlery, plates, napkins, taking the order, etc. You can't really deduce 'airborne' from that.

That reminds me of, was it a salt shaker very early on in germany?

eagle eye

Well there is a mid-term for schools coming shortly.
We'll see what the numbers are like at the end of that mid-term break and it'll tell a story.
Wouldn't surprise me one bit if the government decide on a lockdown for that period to keep hiding the problem with schools.

Messi19

eagle eye wrote: »

Well there is a mid-term for schools coming shortly.
We'll see what the numbers are like at the end of that mid-term break and it'll tell a story.
Wouldn't surprise me one bit if the government decide on a lockdown for that period to keep hiding the problem with schools.

If the numbers do start to drop it'll be packaged as level 3 finally having an effect and nothing to do with schools being off for a week i.e nothing to see here

douglashyde

MelbourneMan wrote: »

It might be helpful here also perhaps to take a slightly different view of this. There is a general tendency to over simply virus spread into having an impact/not having an impact, or safe/unsafe, or this is safer than that therefore we should not be be prevented from doing this. etc.
But it cannot be looked at in this black and white manner.

The chain of transmission has many many links, and all contribute to the overall spread and R0. Individual factors have greater or lesser contributions, and also have different levels of importance to society in general. It is never true to say schools or pubs are or are not having an impact. Whereever people interface, there is an impact.

The task of the politicians is to weigh up the sum of all factors contributing to spread, and weigh up the the impact on society, health, and the economy of curtailing these activities to varying degrees, and balancing those two elements with the capability of the health service to handle the caseload. The data and advice on the virus element is provided to them by NPHET.

It is not easy I can assure you.

Nobody is 'blaming' pubs as you state it. They are simply a very strong case of the benefits of limiting/closing them, overwhelmingly outweighing the cost.

I hope this clarifies.

Tony?

RGARDINR

Northern Ireland circuit breaker news

douglashyde

Purely anecdotical example. Evidence would suggest schools are not the cause of the spread of this relatively mild virus. Then again, contact tracing is currently appalling, if we are hoping to use such data in a meaningful way.

My girlfriend has two nieces and a cousin (all Northern Ireland), all between the ages of 5-10 and none having any interaction with each other. Two of them have tested positive for COVID because after a close contact test referral (staff members were the spreader and they were told this). Neither children present any symptoms and are both at approx 10 days now since the positive test.

You of course need large data sets but I wouldn't be surprised if kids are highly likely to be asymptomatic and acting as spreaders.

For the record. I'm very much against lockdowns.... just an anecdotical example for 2.24AM on a Tuesday.

JP Liz V1

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Well if someone knows.... are betting shops open and is horse racing still going ahead. Just wondered.

Gyms? Not that I ever crossed their sweaty smelly doors anyway lol.

Listowel Races in Kerry went ahead, wonder how many cases from that, is that where the Gardai and Fire Brigade meet up