Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

xhomelezz

Risteard81 wrote: »

Masks have nothing to do with Level 5 as they are a placebo for those incapable of rational thought. They are an affront to civilisation.

Ah sure they are placebo, another scientist

coastwatch

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Hearing of some public sector staff being seconded back to contact tracing from Tuesday.

These were initially moved to contact tracing back in March/April and then back to their own departments over the summer. Now being moved back in again for the duration of level 5.

What skills are required for contact tracing?
Is it effectively a call centre type of operation?
It seems we need to have a few hundred for the current situation and then have them on standyby when numbers are brought down to July / August levels.

political analyst

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Main issue is the method of declaring a death in Ireland.

You've 3 months to register a death, until that happens its not notified

But the managers of nursing homes and of hospitals place deaths of residents and of patients on record immediately, don't they? It can't just be left to relatives to register deaths - and what if a deceased person has no surviving relatives?

Russman

Stheno wrote: »

The one thing missing for me is numbers

We know they are currently aiming for less than 100 cases a day as a target to move out of level five

If they could define the threshold for moving back e.g. from three to two or moving up again I think it would give people focus rather than bumbling along with no clarity

I’d assume there’s other metrics they’d look at though, along with case number ?

manniot2

Goldrickssan wrote: »

The world will implode if these vaccines turn out to be complete ass

We have invested so much in them at this stage, they will make them work by reducing testing etc.

odyssey06

Risteard81 wrote: »

Masks have nothing to do with Level 5 as they are a placebo for those incapable of rational thought. They are an affront to civilisation.

I thought they were Satanic?
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115034595&postcount=42

So maybe you can clarify if our government should be prosecuted for blasphemy, or treason or is it crimes against science?

is_that_so

Russman wrote: »

I’d assume there’s other metrics they’d look at though, along with case number ?

They don't like setting targets at all and prefer "as low as possible". That's really not acceptable now and will be even less so if/when we get another one of these in the New Year.

Beanybabog

Beanybabog wrote: »

I just got a text for my daughters Covid test... in three hours. No text so far for me or my son. I’ve Been reading lots giving out about people not turning up for their second test... maybe more notice would be helpful! I’m fine but I imagine some people have no transport

Just an update to this, got to the test centre and asked them to put us all in together and they couldn't find my son. Realised the text said a different centre! So they had booked me in one centre and 20 minutes later his in a different centre. No wonder people are missing their 2nd appointments. Luckily I got done with my daughter so I have just one more trip to make

CIARAN_BOYLE

Stheno wrote: »

The one thing missing for me is numbers

We know they are currently aiming for less than 100 cases a day as a target to move out of level five

If they could define the threshold for moving back e.g. from three to two or moving up again I think it would give people focus rather than bumbling along with no clarity

The combination between case numbers and r number is not something people seem to get.

If the R number is greater than 1 nphet will oppose any move to lower restrictions whatever the case numbers are (because cases are already growing).

If the R number is greater around 1.5 nphet will start screaming for level 5 at around 400-600 cases a day.

Would it help if I defined the point to move to level 5 as the point where the R number and cases and hospitalisation rate suggest that the non covid health service will suffer problems in a month to 6 weeks time.

stephenjmcd

coastwatch wrote: »

What skills are required for contact tracing?
Is it effectively a call centre type of operation?
It seems we need to have a few hundred for the current situation and then have them on standyby when numbers are brought down to July / August levels.

Of the ones I know of, the ask was essentially proficient in office (email, excel etc) along with some call handling experience.

Nothing major really, something most office based staff would already have. The ones being moved back in were already trained back during March/April so they don't have to do that again but for anyone new coming in there's a training course.

Ger Roe

Russman wrote: »

I’d assume there’s other metrics they’d look at though, along with case number ?

There are. They have never said that restrictions will be imposed or lifted on a case number basis. They have always stated that there are multiple factors involved and that case numbers alone would be too simplistic a metric to use.

Roger_007

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Main issue is the method of declaring a death in Ireland.

You've 3 months to register a death, until that happens its not notified

That doesn’t seem to apply to accident deaths. They are often reported weekly/monthly.

Stheno

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

The combination between case numbers and r number is not something people seem to get.

If the R number is greater than 1 nphet will oppose any move to lower restrictions whatever the case numbers are (because cases are already growing).

If the R number is greater around 1.5 nphet will start screaming for level 5 at around 400-600 cases a day.

Would it help if I defined the point to move to level 5 as the point where the R number and cases and hospitalisation rate suggest that the non covid health service will suffer problems in a month to 6 weeks time.

That's exactly the sort of thing I'd find useful tbh

The North showing no effect from shutting down so far, still 20% positivity
https://twitter.com/vincekearney/status/1320366770281238528?s=19

GT89

The lots of the drapery in my local Dunnes was taped off today but not the pajamas or underwear wasn't like that even in the first lockdown. This quite clearly has nothing to do with a virus anymore.

JimToken

This truly is the year of useless data

We're being blindsided by numbers

is_that_so

Ger Roe wrote: »

There are. They have never said that restrictions will be imposed or lifted on a case number basis. They have always stated that there are multiple factors involved and that case numbers alone would be too simplistic a metric to use.

Level 5 was recommended based on about 3 - current R0 and a predicted higher level of hospital and ICU cases, neither of the latter two are looking that likely at present.

political analyst

political analyst wrote: »

Why is there a time-lag in the reporting of Covid deaths? Surely, it must be possible to report the number of such deaths in a specific period without revealing anything that would indicate the identities of those who died.

You have asked this multiple times and been given answers multiple times.

An example would be my wife's mother. She died unexpectedly of a stroke in the hospital that she worked during her shift.

We knew she died of a stroke as we were told by her colleagues who tried to save her.
But is was over eight weeks before her doctor got the official cause of death and passed this onto us.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Stheno wrote: »

That's exactly the sort of thing I'd find useful tbh

The North showing no effect from shutting down so far, still 20% positivity
https://twitter.com/vincekearney/status/1320366770281238528?s=19

In the letter to government when they recommended the move to level 5 that's pretty much what they said (cases were x, r number was y, if this continued unmitigated by Z date cases would be u and the number in hospital would be v and that was too much).

Exccuse me subbing in letters I can't go and find it at the moment.

AdamD

Strumms wrote: »

If people could trust the golf set, but there have been instances so far that shows, well....that’s not really guaranteed...

The act of playing a round of golf isn’t just two people who participate in a sport and ‘can’ adhere to social distancing.

Look at golf at the club..

greenskeepers... doing work that needs to be done more often then not as part of a team, in close quarters with one another. Their job is essential as without them the course is unplayable.

Reception... minimum of two to three to four people, working across the spectrum of ten to eleven hours in close quarters, taking calls, making calls, meeting colleagues and customers...all assorted tasks.

All the vendors who supply them with everything from stationery to paper, to supplies for the course,... golf is not essential.

Greenkeepers in close quarters? What?

caveat emptor

is_that_so wrote: »

HSE say they have rates of about 2% in positivity to go on, that's real life data.

So what goes into a positivity rate?

It is a function of two main things I would think.

1) The amount of people tested
2) The probability of some who who is tested having the virus.

Kids are more likely to have mild symptoms or be asymptomatic. Therefore they are less likely to be tested.

In the context of schools we know that close contacts are not the same as in the wider world. I.e if someone tests positive we don’t then go on and test the whole group who spent 7 hours in doors for the last 5 days or whatever. You could argue there is a high probability that this would return many more asymptomatic cases if so. Contact tracing breakdown is affecting our numbers massively. My mate calls me and says you should get tested , “yeah defo but I feel grand” Asymptomatics missed = spread continues.

I think the main driver of this is the average number of contacts per household. The households with kids can’t keep this number down. Now we can mitigate in schools but not eliminate the risk.

If cases don’t drop or. Increase 4 weeks after midterm it’ll be obvious.

This is already happening.

https://twitter.com/samhold21632854/status/1320121347826208768?s=21

GT89

GT89 wrote: »

The lots of the drapery in my local Dunnes was taped off today but not the pajamas or underwear wasn't like that even in the first lockdown. This quite clearly has nothing to do with a virus anymore.

What's it about then?

alentejo

Why have they stopped issuing passports under level 5 restrictions?

Seems covid is dictating every element of government policy

Jim_Hodge

Roger_007 wrote: »

That doesn’t seem to apply to accident deaths. They are often reported weekly/monthly.

That's not really true. The news may report a particular death from a traffic accident (though not all by any means). The death still has to be registered and the three month period still applies. HSA will report on some accidental deaths where their remit is concerned.

Strumms

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Absolute rubbish from you lad.

That reply up to your usual standard, you don’t agree with it, debate it...;)

Stheno

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

In the letter to government when they recommended the move to level 5 that's pretty much what they said (cases were x, r number was y, if this continued unmitigated by Z date cases would be u and the number in hospital would be v and that was too much).

Exccuse me subbing in letters I can't go and find it at the moment.

No worries with the subbing

That approach is not clear enough for me

If they came out with e.g. r must be 1 and no mire than 200 daily cases to maintain level 3 that would help imo - not suggesting these exact numbers mind

stephenjmcd

Roger_007 wrote: »

That doesn’t seem to apply to accident deaths. They are often reported weekly/monthly.

Its deaths in general. Once a death occurs a family/next of kin has 3 months to register the death which includes cause of death etc.

Applies to everything. There was talk of getting this changed so that deaths were notified quickly. Its why we sometimes have deaths notified from a few months ago

forumdedum

I think the Government will move down from Level 5 earlier than 6 weeks. This will provide an opportunity to have another level 5 when needed down the line.

I am happy to do what I'm told. Medical advice is essential imo.

Risteard81

Risteard81 wrote: »

Masks have nothing to do with Level 5 as they are a placebo for those incapable of rational thought. They are an affront to civilisation.

Which grifter site for the gullible did you get this pearl of wisdom from?

CIARAN_BOYLE

Stheno wrote: »

No worries with the subbing

That approach is not clear enough for me

If they came out with e.g. r must be 1 and no mire than 200 daily cases to maintain level 3 that would help imo - not suggesting these exact numbers mind

I suspect that nphet and elements of the government would take that straight away.

Others would push to move to level 2.

My own estimate is that we can live with upto 500 cases a day if we know the R number will stay at 1 but we would need to be ready to jump on a rise in the R number immediately.

We also need to realise that for the moment nphet and the government should be extra cautious. Can you imagine coming out of level 5 a few weeks early and for the R number to climb to 1.5+ giving the virus 6 weeks to grow before Christmas leaving the government little choice to enact level 5 at Christmas time.

Russman

is_that_so wrote: »

They don't like setting targets at all and prefer "as low as possible". That's really not acceptable now and will be even less so if/when we get another one of these in the New Year.

It’s such a grey and fast moving (at times) situation though and so many variables, there’s simply no way they can set a definite “target”.

I dunno what the right answer is tbh, but I do think joe public deciding he knows better than the professionals/experts simply because he’s inconvenienced might not be the best way forward.

Stheno

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I suspect that nphet and elements of the government would take that straight away.

Others would push to move to level 2.

My own estimate is that we can live with upto 500 cases a day if we know the R number will stay at 1 but we would need to be ready to jump on a rise in the R number immediately.

That would make sense to me in that if people know the limits at which we go up a level then they can prepare for it

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/oct/25/coronavirus-live-news-cases-surge-in-europe-restrictions-victoria-uk-italy-greece-austria

Hospitals in Geneva appealing for retired medical professionals to help them, they are at over 1000 cases per 100k

It may be that our early restrictions of level three in Dublin and then nationally may turn out to cause us to avoid whats happening around Europe at the moment

I'm still not convinced 5 was necessary

Risteard81

odyssey06 wrote: »

I thought they were Satanic?
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115034595&postcount=42

So maybe you can clarify if our government should be prosecuted for blasphemy, or treason or is it crimes against science?

I fervently believe that they must be executed for Treason.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Stheno wrote: »

I'm still not convinced 5 was necessary

I feel like we could have gotten away with 3 + enforcement if enforcement came in around the same time level 3 came in in Dublin.

Im personally expecting an r number of around 3 in early January (from Christmas and New Year) whatever rules are in force as families getting together over Christmas and Christmas shopping won't be stopped).

The need to have cases under control before that is probably as big a factor in bringing in level 5 than anything else.

is_that_so

Russman wrote: »

It’s such a grey and fast moving (at times) situation though and so many variables, there’s simply no way they can set a definite “target”.

I dunno what the right answer is tbh, but I do think joe public deciding he knows better than the professionals/experts simply because he’s inconvenienced might not be the best way forward.

Not that fast moving for them to be predicting data for 6 weeks hence. Joe Public comes into it because s/he does need to know is this six weeks or a whole lot longer? The CMO has mentioned 100 cases a day by then. If they view that as acceptable or R0 of 0.5/0.6 they need to state it. We need to know where "there" is if we are not there yet.

Sweet.Science

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1320379523637104641?s=19

What the hell is going on

xhomelezz

Risteard81 wrote: »

I fervently believe that they must be executed for Treason.

Medical advice urgently needed.

Russman

Just with regard to timelines, let’s say, in a best case scenario, we come out of level 5 as expected on 1st Dec. Based on the springtime, when we probably got June, JulY & August out of it before it went pear shaped again. That would maybe give us December, January & February, leaving aside a Christmas spike. Now, if vaccines for healthcare workers start to roll out in the new year, is there a chance that enough of them and other vulnerables would be vaccinated by March to have an impact on whether we need to go back up the levels ? Like if the EU get 20 million of Pfizer’s 100 million stockpile they claim they’ll have by end 2020, and we’re about 1% of the EU population, that’d give us 200,000 shots, so 100,000 people vaccinated - would that be enough to slow a spike in numbers ?

I’d gladly take that scenario if it meant avoiding a 3rd lockdown tbh.

Stheno

Sweet.Science wrote: »

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1320379523637104641?s=19

What the hell is going on

Would you go to hospital if you absolutely didn't have to?

Theres also the possibility flu has not hit yet and not all elective procedures are being done

Boggles

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I feel like we could have gotten away with 3 + enforcement if enforcement came in around the same time level 3 came in in Dublin.

Ah, that is extreme after timing.

There was absolutely no justification for level 3+ for the country back then and NPHET if they recommended it would have told STFU.

Loafing Oaf

Sweet.Science wrote: »

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1320379523637104641?s=19

What the hell is going on

Yeah that's a shocking typo from the tanaiste:P

JimToken

Russman wrote: »

Just with regard to timelines, let’s say, in a best case scenario, we come out of level 5 as expected on 1st Dec. Based on the springtime, when we probably got June, JulY & August out of it before it went pear shaped again. That would maybe give us December, January & February, leaving aside a Christmas spike. Now, if vaccines for healthcare workers start to roll out in the new year, is there a chance that enough of them and other vulnerables would be vaccinated by March to have an impact on whether we need to go back up the levels ? Like if the EU get 20 million of Pfizer’s 100 million stockpile they claim they’ll have by end 2020, and we’re about 1% of the EU population, that’d give us 200,000 shots, so 100,000 people vaccinated - would that be enough to slow a spike in numbers ?

I’d gladly take that scenario if it meant avoiding a 3rd lockdown tbh.

Not just vaccines

Rapid testing and smartphones equally important next year

Goldrickssan

I love the GAA lads. Sunday Game giving me chills with their intro.

Pure Irish culture. Feck the haters.

Russman

is_that_so wrote: »

Not that fast moving for them to be predicting data for 6 weeks hence. Joe Public comes into it because s/he does need to know is this six weeks or a whole lot longer? The CMO has mentioned 100 cases a day by then. If they view that as acceptable or R0 of 0.5/0.6 they need to state it. We need to know where "there" is if we are not there yet.

Oh I totally agree they can’t just leave the population hanging there. I just think it’s not necessarily as black and white as X number of cases, the trends will have to come into it, as will hospital capacity etc.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Stheno wrote: »

Would you go to hospital if you absolutely didn't have to?

Theres also the possibility flu has not hit yet and not all elective procedures are being done

Certain hospitals have closed elective procedures already (Cavan, Cork and Limerick at times in recent weeks).

Flu probably won't hit that badly (please please god) as level 5 restrictions will hit the flu on the head.

The closure of pubs and nightclubs have had an effect on the people using A&E as a drunk tank. My father had too bad hospital stays last year that had multiday trolley waits before being put on a ward. It shocked me (during the night I stayed over night in a chair) to see multiple people on trolleys just too drunk and being medically monitored clogging up A&E.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Russman wrote: »

Just with regard to timelines, let’s say, in a best case scenario, we come out of level 5 as expected on 1st Dec. Based on the springtime, when we probably got June, JulY & August out of it before it went pear shaped again. That would maybe give us December, January & February, leaving aside a Christmas spike. Now, if vaccines for healthcare workers start to roll out in the new year, is there a chance that enough of them and other vulnerables would be vaccinated by March to have an impact on whether we need to go back up the levels ? Like if the EU get 20 million of Pfizer’s 100 million stockpile they claim they’ll have by end 2020, and we’re about 1% of the EU population, that’d give us 200,000 shots, so 100,000 people vaccinated - would that be enough to slow a spike in numbers ?

I’d gladly take that scenario if it meant avoiding a 3rd lockdown tbh.

It depends on what the vaccine does. They only need to show a reduction in the level of mild symptoms to pass trials. That means they don't need to show an effect on transmission or significant symptoms to pass their trials. This means we don't actually know what we will get from a vaccine.

As such we will have to see what happens.

BringBackMick

any swabs today or it 48hr job

Boggles

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Hospital numbers down to 295 this morning. They usually increase over the weekend, I think

Up to 319 now.

24 in, 20 out.

Numbers are all over the place the past few days.

Kermit.de.frog

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Certain hospitals have closed elective procedures already (Cavan, Cork and Limerick at times in recent weeks).

Flu probably won't hit that badly (please please god) as level 5 restrictions will hit the flu on the head.

The closure of pubs and nightclubs have had an effect on the people using A&E as a drunk tank. My father had too bad hospital stays last year that had multiday trolley waits before being put on a ward. It shocked me (during the night I stayed over night in a chair) to see multiple people on trolleys just too drunk and being medically monitored clogging up A&E.

The pandemic has exposed that a lot of problems with our health service actually come from behaviour of the general public particularly drunks and addicts. This is not ignoring failings in the system btw.

We should take this opportunity to reboot things.

Definitely when it comes to blocking beds while very sick or older people have to sit on chairs (I've experienced it myself, it's disgraceful) drunks should be either turned away or made to pay big fines.

We can't go back to business as usual after this in terms of our hospitals.

We need to re-evaluate things from scratch.

caveat emptor

Very informative video. Based on the states but relevant info. Not a good prognosis for the US. If level 5 doesn't get cases down to a manageable amount will we be asked to stay separate for Christmas? We've seen the impact of communions and GAA events when cases were low/ Christmas is the definition of super spreader event. Vaccine and magic new drugs not here yet. If the health system remains fragile Christmas will remain in jeopardy.

Goldrickssan

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The pandemic has exposed that a lot of problems with our health service actually come from behaviour of the general public particularly drunks and addicts. This is not ignoring failings in the system btw.

We should take this opportunity to reboot things.

Definitely when it comes to blocking beds while very sick or older people have to sit on chairs (I've experienced it myself, it's disgraceful) drunks should be either turned away or made to pay big fines.

We can't go back to business as usual after this in terms of our hospitals.

We need to re-evaluate things from scratch.

The HSE won't be fixed by a reboot. There is hardware there since the old health boards hogging resources.

Full hardware refresh is needed.