Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

caveat emptor

Stheno wrote: »

I agree we need restrictions, but trying to compare Italy with here is not logical

I live in Dublin where wet pubs have been shut since March and we are in week six of level 3 then 5

Bars and restaurants are STILL open in Italy

Its apples and oranges tbh

So when pubs closed here did people calmly say.

"Of course we need to close them"

They said "fvck that power hungry Tony hooligan there's no evidence"

When cases began to rise exponentially they said "That's not exponential its just a bit wobbly"

They were here day in / day out trying to convince us the tide wasn't coming in.

Joke

stephenjmcd

Stheno wrote: »

I agree we need restrictions, but trying to compare Italy with here is not logical

I live in Dublin where wet pubs have been shut since March and we are in week six of level 3 then 5

Bars and restaurants are STILL open in Italy

Its apples and oranges tbh

I agree, we can look and see what other countries are doing but there's no comparison given the difference in restrictions various countries have.

giveitholly

Will we get swab numbers today or will we have to wait until tomorrow because of the bank holiday?

stephenjmcd

giveitholly wrote: »

Will we get swab numbers today or will we have to wait until tomorrow because of the bank holiday?

Probably tomorrow if other bank holiday weekends are anything to go by

1641

It seems we are far from the only ones having problems with track and trace as the numbers rise. And with a far lower infection rate than us:

Meanwhile authorities in Berlin, which already for several weeks has been considered one of the nation’s coronavirus hotspots, have said they will veer away from tracking and tracing those infected with coronavirus due to a lack of resources, and will rely instead on infected persons taking responsibility for themselves and going into isolation at home as well as taking the initiative in contacting people with whom they have been in touch..........

Berlin cases have been well over 100 per 100,000 for several days, over double the critical 50 per 100,000 marker.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/oct/26/coronavirus-live-news-us-sees-new-case-highs-as-spain-curfew-begins

Professor Moriarty

Stheno wrote: »

I agree we need restrictions, but trying to compare Italy with here is not logical

I live in Dublin where wet pubs have been shut since March and we are in week six of level 3 then 5

Bars and restaurants are STILL open in Italy

Its apples and oranges tbh

It might illustrate a possible difference in the behaviour of people in both countries when eating and drinking in pubs and restaurants.

normanoffside

Blondini wrote: »

Highest covid hospital numbers since May

344 in hospital
39 in ICU

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1026/1173952-covid-hospital/

45% of those patients were infected inside the hospotals having been admitted for other reasons.

https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1320700796498042880

tom1ie

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Covid will likely exist regardless, its going to be endemic. The actual virus that causes infection will exist unless there's immunity or eradication.

Once a vaccine comes available and distribution begins your likely to see restrictions eased over time(not instant, I'm talking over a period of 6 months+), they won't continue until a 2nd generation of vaccine. A vaccine that reduces illness is perfectly acceptable as it reduces pressure on health systems.

If you think restrictions continue long term once a number of vaccine are rolled out thats fine but its very far from reality.

Sd, masks, sanitising hands will stay in place even with a vaccine.
70% exposure rate will have to be reached globally before the virus stops spreading.
Once a vaccine is rolled out you don’t magically reach 70%.
It takes time to roll it out.

ShooterSF

manniot2 wrote: »

These Garda tweets showing them going into shops and blocking off the boxes of celebrations are such a fooking embarrassment to this country and a shameful use of resources. How can their commissioner stand over this.

We're at our highest level re: restrictions during a global pandemic, what the f* do people need boxes of chocolates for? Also how is it "essential retail". I'm out of work until bars can reopen and have had to do my entire semester in college from home but people can't forego some chocolate for 6 weeks while we try and reel in a pandemic? It's the retailers who should be embarrassed trying to ignore the regulations to make some extra cash. What do you want the Gardai to do if not enforce regulations on greedy businesses during a national health crisis?

Funsterdelux

1641 wrote: »

It seems we are far from the only ones having problems with track and trace as the numbers rise. And with a far lower infection rate than us:

Meanwhile authorities in Berlin, which already for several weeks has been considered one of the nation’s coronavirus hotspots, have said they will veer away from tracking and tracing those infected with coronavirus due to a lack of resources, and will rely instead on infected persons taking responsibility for themselves and going into isolation at home as well as taking the initiative in contacting people with whom they have been in touch..........

Berlin cases have been well over 100 per 100,000 for several days, over double the critical 50 per 100,000 marker.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/oct/26/coronavirus-live-news-us-sees-new-case-highs-as-spain-curfew-begins

Sauerkraut and boiled cabbage Im afraid

is_that_so

ShooterSF wrote: »

We're at our highest level re: restrictions during a global pandemic, what the f* do people need boxes of chocolates for? Also how is it "essential retail". I'm out of work until bars can reopen and have had to do my entire semester in college from home but people can't forego some chocolate for 6 weeks while we try and reel in a pandemic? It's the retailers who should be embarrassed trying to ignore the regulations to make some extra cash. What do you want the Gardai to do if not enforce regulations on greedy businesses during a national health crisis?

I see there is much joy in your life!

mr zulu

normanoffside wrote: »

45% of those patients were infected inside the hospotals having been admitted for other reasons.

https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1320700796498042880

Don't be posting news like that, we want negative facts only.

is_that_so

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Sauerkraut and boiled cabbage Im afraid

Sauerkraut is cabbage!

Funsterdelux

is_that_so wrote: »

Sauerkraut is cabbage!

But its not boiled!

Sawduck

Reading back over the last 20 pages or so it seems a lot of people want to ban everything, do you not think we have enough misery going on right now, relax and have a walk instead

AnniePowwa

ShooterSF wrote: »

We're at our highest level re: restrictions during a global pandemic, what the f* do people need boxes of chocolates for? Also how is it "essential retail". I'm out of work until bars can reopen and have had to do my entire semester in college from home but people can't forego some chocolate for 6 weeks while we try and reel in a pandemic? It's the retailers who should be embarrassed trying to ignore the regulations to make some extra cash. What do you want the Gardai to do if not enforce regulations on greedy businesses during a national health crisis?

so after a long week at work you can't get a pint ,you want it so you cant even ate a bit of chocolate , who knew ireland had so many freaks

stephenjmcd

tom1ie wrote: »

Sd, masks, sanitising hands will stay in place even with a vaccine.
70% exposure rate will have to be reached globally before the virus stops spreading.
Once a vaccine is rolled out you don’t magically reach 70%.
It takes time to roll it out.

And where are you getting this 70% figure from?

Virus that causes infection wont stop spreading hence endemic, the goal of vaccine is to produce strong immune response with the aim of avoiding serious infection, not eradication.

The latest news from Oxford this morning is that a strong response has been observed in the elderly while we already knew it produced a response in the young. Evidence now that anti body and T Cell reaction is very strong. All data due to be published shortly.

Once those who are deemed vulnerable to severe infection are vaccinated and the vaccination programme is progressing then restictions can be eased up on albeit in a very slow manner.

I agree hand sanitising will remain people will be conscious of personal hygiene more and thats a good thing but SD and masks won't, it'll be up to individuals i feel if they want to wear a mask, the mandatory element will disappear at some point. SD likewise slowly fades away.

You don't need to explain how this works I know it doesn't get rolled out overnight, have done plenty of research into it over the last few months with spare time because of restrictions.

There's a full thread on it with some highly informed posters.

manniot2

ShooterSF wrote: »

We're at our highest level re: restrictions during a global pandemic, what the f* do people need boxes of chocolates for? Also how is it "essential retail". I'm out of work until bars can reopen and have had to do my entire semester in college from home but people can't forego some chocolate for 6 weeks while we try and reel in a pandemic? It's the retailers who should be embarrassed trying to ignore the regulations to make some extra cash. What do you want the Gardai to do if not enforce regulations on greedy businesses during a national health crisis?

Wow

Irish Stones

brookers wrote: »

Wonder what way the ski resorts will operate. Be hard with the sharing of equipment, lifts, cable cars, gondolas etc

I fail to see why skiing is essential to life.

Two days ago 2,200 people gathered to a ski resort over here. Obviously, it isn't true that money is short during these dark times.

normanoffside

mr zulu wrote: »

Don't be posting news like that, we want negative facts only.

Unfortunately this is a negative fact that you’re more likely to catch Covid in Hospital than anywhere else.
That’s why people are afraid to go to Hospital with other ailments.

Ficheall

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Uhh okay, still don’t see why the numbers in ICU in Italy are relevant to Ireland, but whatever floats your boat I guess?

There are a couple of flights from Italy to Ireland every day, with no restrictions on arrivals, so the prevalence of the disease in Italy is relevant.
Don't know about boats, sorry.

pjohnson

mr zulu wrote: »

Don't be posting news like that, we want negative facts only.

That might be all you want.

Most people want good and bad. Once its not made up shíte.

Irish Stones

Stheno wrote: »

Bars and restaurants are STILL open in Italy

That's not totally true.
Bars and restaurants in Italy have to close at 6pm from today till November 24th.
Closing at 6pm is equal not to open at all. Nobody has dinner before 8 pm.

ACitizenErased

Irish Stones wrote: »

That's not totally true.
Bars and restaurants in Italy have to close at 6pm from today till November 24th.
Closing at 6pm is equal not to open at all. Nobody has dinner before 8 pm.

So right now they’re still open...

Golfman64

Irish Stones wrote: »

I fail to see why skiing is essential to life.

Two days ago 2,200 people gathered to a ski resort over here. Obviously, it isn't true that money is short during these dark times.

The revenue generated through tourism contributes significantly to the economies of many Central European countries where skiing is a very popular Winter activity. I would hazard a guess that the populations and governments of these countries understand that money doesn't grow on trees and that enabling a safe return to travel and tourism will help partially fund healthcare as well as many other 'essential' services in the respective countries.

Irish Stones

ACitizenErased wrote: »

So right now they’re still open...

Right now, at 1:50pm local time, they are open, but empty.

niallo27

On reddit there, they are talking about hospitals in Mexico reaching capacity and some people having to wait up to 12 hours to be seen. 12 hours, isn't that the normal wait time in an Irish hospital.

Stheno

Irish Stones wrote: »

That's not totally true.
Bars and restaurants in Italy have to close at 6pm from today till November 24th.
Closing at 6pm is equal not to open at all. Nobody has dinner before 8 pm.

So its true they are still open

From 6pm tonight they have to close at six pm

You can still go for lunch/coffee etc

Get your facts straight

Irish Stones

Stheno wrote: »

So its true they are still open

From 6pm tonight they have to close at six pm

You can still go for lunch/coffee etc

Get your facts straight

Having lunch at a bar or restaurant is quite unusual here, unless you're working and have a lunch break in the area, but right now, more than half of workers are working from home and nearly nobody has lunch at the restaurant.
Fact is that local bas and restaurants don't see a reason to even open daily if they have to close way before people would go and have dinner.
Lots of places like them that didn't open again after lifting the restictions, and several prefer to stay close because it's less expensive.

Happydays2020

Mr. Holohan should be reading this

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/behaviour-is-best-covid-19-vaccine-available-1.4390925


Behavioural science has much to contribute to informing the public health response to Covid-19. Behavioural science seeks to understand the factors that influence behaviour, with the goal of developing evidence-based interventions and policies. One of the great strengths of behavioural science is that it uses evidence and a scientific approach to challenge some of the “common sense” beliefs we have about how to change human behaviour.

Counterproductive messages

A good example of such a common sense claim is that threatening people with punishment will increase adherence to public health guidance. Evidence from both psychology and economics suggests that authoritative and punitive approaches in this context are at best ineffective – and at worst counterproductive.

stephenjmcd

Quotes from Prof Adrian Hill leading the Oxford vaccine at the Jenner institute starting to come out now on the back of the news relating to the strong immune response. They to me seem to be slightly ahead of Pfizer.

Keep in mind when he references this country its the UK he's discussing.

"I'd be very surprised if this thing [the pandemic] isn't very clearly on the way down by late spring, at least in this country"

"Billions of doses' are already being produced at ten factories across the globe by a consortium led by British drugs firms AstraZeneca, he said"

"The priorities in the country are "pretty clear" said Prof Hill and added that "we're going to vaccinate high-risk individuals before we vaccinate the young, the fit and healthy who are at a lower risk. I think most countries will do that." This year the researchers are looking for an 'emergency use' authorization which will "allow us to go and vaccinate those most at risk as a priority, then early next year everybody else."

Speaking online to members and alumni of Oxford's Magdalen College, Professor Hill said: 'Much of the reason why drug trials normally take so long is that academics had to spend months writing reports and seeking funding between their stages. In this case, money has been no object.'

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Quotes from Prof Hill leading the Oxford vaccine starting to come out now on the back of the news relating to the strong immune response.

Keep in mind when he references this country its the UK he's discussing.

"I'd be very surprised if this thing [the pandemic] isn't very clearly on the way down by late spring, at least in this country"

"Billions of doses' are already being produced at ten factories across the globe by a consortium led by British drugs firms AstraZeneca, he said"

"The priorities in the country are "pretty clear" said Prof Hill and added that "we're going to vaccinate high-risk individuals before we vaccinate the young, the fit and healthy who are at a lower risk. I think most countries will do that." This year the researchers are looking for an 'emergency use' authorization which will "allow us to go and vaccinate those most at risk as a priority, then early next year everybody else."

Speaking online to members and alumni of Oxford's Magdalen College, Professor Hill said: 'Much of the reason why drug trials normally take so long is that academics had to spend months writing reports and seeking funding between their stages. In this case, money has been no object.'

Damn. She was being quite conservative with timelines, this is very promising.

Happydays2020

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Quotes from Prof Hill leading the Oxford vaccine starting to come out now on the back of the news relating to the strong immune response.

Keep in mind when he references this country its the UK he's discussing.

"I'd be very surprised if this thing [the pandemic] isn't very clearly on the way down by late spring, at least in this country"

"Billions of doses' are already being produced at ten factories across the globe by a consortium led by British drugs firms AstraZeneca, he said"

"The priorities in the country are "pretty clear" said Prof Hill and added that "we're going to vaccinate high-risk individuals before we vaccinate the young, the fit and healthy who are at a lower risk. I think most countries will do that." This year the researchers are looking for an 'emergency use' authorization which will "allow us to go and vaccinate those most at risk as a priority, then early next year everybody else."

Speaking online to members and alumni of Oxford's Magdalen College, Professor Hill said: 'Much of the reason why drug trials normally take so long is that academics had to spend months writing reports and seeking funding between their stages. In this case, money has been no object.'

Thanks. I think this is encouraging for us also as the EU has committed to buying this vaccine also.

froog

Blondini wrote: »

So now posting a covid-related chart in a covid thread, in a covid forum is scaremongering?

Place has gone full tilt ridiculous today.

Good news only people please, good news only or you might upset the positivity brigade

and they call other people snowflakes. they must have awful anxiety reading the news every day.

PMBC

owlbethere wrote: »

Some very good news about the Oxford Vaccine with plans for rolling it out to the front line staff in the UK from as early as Nov. 2. That's next weeks. That's some good news. Fingers crossed there will be a vaccine after Christmas.

The Oxford vaccine is a 2 shot dose with 28 days in between. What happens if someone becomes exposed to the virus within that time? I suspect they are not fully protected with the vaccine until the second dose is administered and then it will probably be another while after the second dose is administered before people are protected.

It's all good news.

I read another post here re same and the link to Reuters. Dismayed to see the bit about rolling it out to UK hospital was near the bottom and ?was taken from The Sun - how reliable is that paper?

stephenjmcd

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Thanks. I think this is encouraging for us also as the EU has committed to buying this vaccine also.

Yup 300 million with another 100 million available

Strumms

I was talking to a friend of mine, she’s a carer. She has three clients, receiving calls / visits twice per day. Morning and evening. Clients 1 & 2 because of covid cancelled the calls, said family members living nearby would come in and do the cleaning, cooking as they didn’t work... client 3, a guy in his late 80’s who was driving up to last year, in good shape but has slowed up a little was called but still wants his carer.... there apparently is fûck all wrong with him apart from being an older gentleman who has slowed up and wouldn’t be very domesticated and his wife died last year.

Anyway, Lisa calls to his place, the fûcker is sat on his wall with two similarly older neighbors yapping, she confronts him after they’ve gone, he laughs ‘sure we all have to die of something’... ‘I’d love a cup of tea’... sits down before she leaves, a serious chat, about her being a healthcare worker, living with an asthmatic, calls the job to tell them to log it, they do, manager phones him, he apologized and commits to being responsible.... she calls two days later, the guy has another neighbor IN his kitchen... all she wants to fûcking do is help the guy, cook for him, clean, do washing, she allows him to call her on her personal mobile before she gets to him to take a shop order that she stops off to get on her own time before getting there etc... so WELL over and above yet the fûcker can’t even sit tight and act responsibly.

KrustyUCC

normanoffside wrote: »

45% of those patients were infected inside the hospotals having been admitted for other reasons.

https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1320700796498042880

RTE ignoring that part of the story on the news at 1

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Damn. She was being quite conservative with timelines, this is very promising.

You might be thinking of Prof Sarah Gilbert, she's leading the vaccine team, Prof Adrian Hill is the head of the Jenner Institute itself.

440Hertz

niallo27 wrote: »

On reddit there, they are talking about hospitals in Mexico reaching capacity and some people having to wait up to 12 hours to be seen. 12 hours, isn't that the normal wait time in an Irish hospital.

We’ve normalised some ludicrous wait times. Whole system needs to be reformed. I was horrified last time I was in the Mater A&E with an elderly relative. Talked to several people who were there for reasons that should have been dealt with through primary care. One person was there due to a chronic illness flare up, should have been directly dealing with a specific department. Two other people has been “referred to A&E” for X-rays by a GP. Surely they should have been referred to a radiology department? Another person was there because they had some symptoms after a surgical procedure in another hospital and had been advised to go to A&E - why wasn’t the original hospital dealing with it ?!

We’ve an abysmal way of organising access to scanning, diagnostics, aftercare and all sorts of things. The result is A&E is like “go to acute hospital generic access route” for things that should be in primary care or other channels entirely.

We need to dramatically increase resources for GPs to access things like radiology and scanning etc and also open up adequate referral services for non emergency, but serious diagnostics that shouldn’t be in A&E.

It would also make sense to try and get less serious cases into local injury units - a lot of basic injuries can be dealt with very competently without going to your nearest acute hospital.

What happens is they triage people into multiple priority lists and those with most urgent needs will get seen first. So if you’re not in need of urgent care or at low risk, you’ll keep getting bypassed by people who are at higher risk and need urgent care, so the wait becomes ludicrously long.

Sorry for going off on rant, but if one thing comes out of this covid era, it needs to be a dramatic reorganisation of how we do all of the above. The multi decade long mes can’t just keep going on. It’s like we repeatedly drive into the same brick wall over and over instead of perhaps looking at better solutions.

owlbethere

Sawduck wrote: »

Reading back over the last 20 pages or so it seems a lot of people want to ban everything, do you not think we have enough misery going on right now, relax and have a walk instead

Many people are drowning in thier own misery and are unable to go out and enjoy a walk.

tom1ie

stephenjmcd wrote: »

And where are you getting this 70% figure from?

Virus that causes infection wont stop spreading hence endemic, the goal of vaccine is to produce strong immune response with the aim of avoiding serious infection, not eradication.

The latest news from Oxford this morning is that a strong response has been observed in the elderly while we already knew it produced a response in the young. Evidence now that anti body and T Cell reaction is very strong. All data due to be published shortly.

Once those who are deemed vulnerable to severe infection are vaccinated and the vaccination programme is progressing then restictions can be eased up on albeit in a very slow manner.

I agree hand sanitising will remain people will be conscious of personal hygiene more and thats a good thing but SD and masks won't, it'll be up to individuals i feel if they want to wear a mask, the mandatory element will disappear at some point. SD likewise slowly fades away.

You don't need to explain how this works I know it doesn't get rolled out overnight, have done plenty of research into it over the last few months with spare time because of restrictions.

There's a full thread on it with some highly informed posters.

Micheal olsterholm is where I get my information which I have stated many times on here.
He is a world renowned expert in this field.
If he states 70% global exposure rate to halt spreading than its 70%.
He has this called out pretty much to a t since January.

Ficheall

Is this the same person?
Ace said "she", so I'm guessing not, but I can't find anyone else fitting the bill after a very brief Google.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-disappearing-so-fast-oxford-vaccine-has-only-50-chance-of-working-11993739

stephenjmcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You might be thinking of Prof Sarah Gilbert, she's leading the vaccine team, Prof Adrian Hill is the head of the Jenner Institute itself.

Updated my initial post there just to reference the jenner institute

stephenjmcd

Ficheall wrote: »

Is this the same person?
Ace said "she", so I'm guessing not, but I can't find anyone else fitting the bill after a very brief Google.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-disappearing-so-fast-oxford-vaccine-has-only-50-chance-of-working-11993739

Typo i would imagine from ACE.

That is Prof Hill yes. He would indeed be correct when saying back in May with less cases they essentially couldn't test efficiency. Trials were moved to Brazil for example when cases went up there and there was a higher chance of exposure, likewise when infection was on the rise in other counties it provided the chance for more accurate testing.

Less virus = Less opportunity to test the vaccine. As bad as it sounds the more prevleant it is the better for vaccine development

ACitizenErased

typo indeed yes got mixed up

440Hertz

I could see a scenario where you’ll need to get vaccinated to enter countries next year. The downside is there’ll be anti vaccine conspiracy theorists ranting and raving all over the Internet no matter how safe and effective it is.

If we get to 70% uptake in Ireland I wouldn’t be entirely surprised as you’re looking at currently maybe 20-25% saying they won’t take it, but if you look at say France, that seems highly unlikely to be achieved. Only 1/3 of people would take the vaccine there https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/16/coronavirus-only-around-1-3-of-french-respondents-would-take-covid-19-vaccine-euronews-pol

and, thanks to conspiracy theorists, only 4% of the population is using their tracing app, which is based on the same anonymous data technology we are using.

It’s a country where you’ve mass protests over electricity meters & gas meters and 5G and (insert any topic here).

So unfortunately, I think we may be looking at a very long haul of outbreaks, lockdowns, deaths and most of it will be driven by garbage circulating on the internet.

The US is likely to be similar and so are several other counties that are neck deep in conspiracy theories.

If it keeps going that way, a lot of places are looking at long term, avoidable tragedy and probably the economic collapse, as this isn’t a viable way to live in the medium term, never mind the long term.

mohawk

leanin2019 wrote: »

I tend to agree (individual cases and transmission are hard to track outside the household etc) but any reduction in numbers wouldn't show up till after the mid term is finish

Am I wrong to say that cases rose rapidly around the same time as when schools and also wet pubs opened nationwide?

Wet pubs never opened in Dublin. They were opened for about two three weeks elsewhere towards end of September. The increase in cases had already started before schools went back.
Schools could of exasperated the rise in cases but they didn’t cause it.

Strumms

At the end of the day, whichever manufacturer comes to the government here, says “hey we have a vaccine, want it ?” It will be months before anybody is Qing up to receive it. The HPRA (Health products regulatory authority), formally the Irish Medicines Board, will have to test, trial, distribute and license the manufacture of said vaccine.

stephenjmcd

Strumms wrote: »

At the end of the day, whichever manufacturer comes to the government here, says “hey we have a vaccine, want it ?” It will be months before anybody is Qing up to receive it. The HPRA (Health products regulatory authority), formally the Irish Medicines Board, will have to test, trial, distribute and license the manufacture of said vaccine.

Nope not accurate. EMA are the ones to approve this on a European scale, Ireland is signed up to the EU vaccination programme for COVID.

The hey we've a vaccine part is already done and rolling reviews already underway.

Once approved by EMA its pretty straightforward, countries start to get their deliveries from the EU stock from whatever supplier is approved be it AstraZeneca or Pfizer.

Irish government is already signed into the contract with AstraZeneca/Oxford for example through the EU vaccination programme.