Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

bennyl10

eigrod wrote: »

905 positive swabs from 14676 tests. Positivity rate 6.17%. Encouraging trend this week.

Apologies if already posted.

great news!

this level 4 nd a bit could well drop it to where we need it to be

eigrod

Deleted User wrote: »

Its amazing looking at the thanks on posts just reporting numbers. All the one that show a positive trend are thanked by one group, and a negative trend another

It’s like Munster posters v Leinster posters on the rugby forum, or Liverpool v Man Utd on the Soccer forum

Necro

Deleted User wrote: »

Its amazing looking at the thanks on posts just reporting numbers. All the one that show a positive trend are thanked by one group, and a negative trend another

Why the need for the hostilities at all, so people disagree. Big deal.

Longing

Target is under 100 cases a day in 6 weeks.

seamus

stephenjmcd wrote: »

NPHET as Nolan tweet last night want R at 0.5. Government position for 1st December appears to be consistently below 1 and on a downward trajectory.

As pointed out last night it'll be level 3 from 1st December so long as government targets are met I feel

I'm curious to see what the public tolerance is going to be to NPHET's aim of rolling lockdowns. This requires crushing the virus into the ground to maximise the amount of time before the next lockdown.

We won't feel the impact of level 5 restrictions until 4th November, at the earliest. At that stage we could be down to 300-400 cases/day and dropping fast*. Holohan will want to maintain level 5 for the rest of the month, but if we manage to get down to ~150 cases by 18th November, there will be a lot of pressure to come back to level 3. Or even level 2.

Of course that's predicated on the current trend continuing. If it does, then we know that level 3 is enough to keep the virus suppressed, and we can likely maintain level 2-3 indefinitely without having to peak and trough from lockdown to lockdown.

awec

stephenjmcd wrote: »

NPHET as Nolan tweet last night want R at 0.5. Government position for 1st December appears to be consistently below 1 and on a downward trajectory.

As pointed out last night it'll be level 3 from 1st December so long as government targets are met I feel

To be honest, I think level 5 restrictions will be going out the door by December, no matter what the government say.

There will be no "we're not quite there yet" this time.

paw patrol

normanoffside wrote: »

And 40 sitting members of NPHET when it only matter what Dr T says anyway.

There are only 18 people on NPHEt who matter.

They are on a sub committee called the Coronavirus Expert Advisory Group - they impose lockdowns and court celebrity status on RTE.



the rest of Nphet are only there for admin, hospital management and communication type stuff - a civil servant gig I assume. Happy to be corrected.

is_that_so

Eod100 wrote: »

You'd have to wonder why the government was so resistant to closing schools for a week. If they're so confident they're not a transmission risk then what do they have to lose? I can understand if it's a political or economic decision but a week when everyone is facing 6 weeks restrictions isn't huge in the scheme of things.

Quite probably because their mindset is not danger transmission risk. Glynn was out yet again yesterday to point out that they are low risk, according to data. Some people backing the "science" seem to be very selective about what they will believe. The worst thing we can do is close schools because of a huge push to get them closed.

Plumbthedepths

Necro wrote: »

Why the need for the hostilities at all, so people disagree. Big deal.

In fairness to Raind I find his posting to be quite unbiased and seems willing to call out bs from all sides.
A quality in short supply here.

manniot2

Level 3 in December is still the most restrictive of any country in Europe. This is such a farce.

stephenjmcd

awec wrote: »

To be honest, I think level 5 restrictions will be going out the door by December, no matter what the government say.

There will be no "we're not quite there yet" this time.

Yeah I'm fully inclined to agree. I think the fact that they said 6 weeks and given the proximity to Christmas puts a deadline on it.

They'll want retail open and people spending money (if they have it after this) in the weeks before Christmas.

The we're not quite there is built in given its 6 weeks instead of 4

manniot2

Longing wrote: »

Target is under 100 cases a day in 6 weeks.

Why would we target that? The cost to get to this will be death, poverty and misery. For what?

stephenjmcd

NPHET letter

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1318551198597812224?s=19

ixoy

Does their modelling take into account we've a much better idea of the actual numbers? So reducing 1000 reported cases a day in October is very different to the reported 1000 cases in March.

US2

Anyone know if you can claim PUP without proof of address ?

Zebra3

manniot2 wrote: »

Why would we target that? The cost to get to this will be death, poverty and misery. For what?

For a FB circle jerk.

Backslap ourselves, tell the world we're great and another rendition of Ireland's Call from our doorsteps.

That warmy fuzzy feeling inside, it's great.

Then a fortnight later when the nurses ask for a pay rise or they strike, we can call for them to be hung from lampposts.

CIARAN_BOYLE

ixoy wrote: »

Does their modelling take into account we've a much better idea of the actual numbers? So reducing 1000 reported cases a day in October is very different to the reported 1000 cases in March.

They have an estimate of the number of cases missed. Serelogical studies in june give an idea of true case numbers prior to then.

Plumbthedepths

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

They have an estimate of the number of cases missed. Serelogical studies in june give an idea of true case numbers prior to then.

Is that the study supposedly with 5000 where a significant number didn't turn up?

Softshoulder

I think this "lockdown" will be way way different to the last one.

- There's way less restrictions.
- GAA and schools allowed open.
- Construction open. FFS work being done in a home is allowed.

Last lockdown everyone was inside. This one there's going to be loads more activity. The kids will be out and about after school too.

seamus

is_that_so wrote: »

Some people backing the "science" seem to be very selective about what they will believe.

People often have difficulty with things that are counter-intuitive.

We are so heavily driven by our intuition that when external data conflicts with it, we'll often "go with our gut" rather than trust the objective data.

It appears intuitive and blindly obvious that schools would be a hotbed for virus transmission. One poster here continuously claims that you have to be stupid to not see it.

But the data doesn't reflect this. It's counter-intuitive, but that doesn't mean it's wrong.

normanoffside

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

They have an estimate of the number of cases missed. Serelogical studies in june give an idea of true case numbers prior to then.

The serological studies were useless.

They were done 14 weeks after peak infections, in most cases of symptomatic infection detectable antibodies wain after 12 weeks.

Not everyone (asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people mostly) even rpoduce antibodies in the first place. They fight it off a level before with t-Cells.

I bet if you detect all those Asymptomatic cases of late for antibodies 14 weeks after infection they won't have any.

is_that_so

Fergal Bowers, as usual, offering some sensible thoughts.


https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1020/1172731-fergal-bowers-covid-19/

AlphaDelta1

Softshoulder wrote: »

I think this "lockdown" will be way way different to the last one.

- There's way less restrictions.
- GAA and schools allowed open.
- Construction open. FFS work being done in a home is allowed.

Last lockdown everyone was inside. This one there's going to be loads more activity. The kids will be out and about after school too.

Exactly. Totally pointless and won't work. Government be back for another go in 10-14 days.

Zebra3

Softshoulder wrote: »

Last lockdown everyone was inside.

Nope.

You think your broadband, electricity and other home comforts exist magically?

You think all those products got to supermarkets without humans and then stacked themselves?

CIARAN_BOYLE

Softshoulder wrote: »

I think this "lockdown" will be way way different to the last one.

- There's way less restrictions.
- GAA and schools allowed open.
- Construction open. FFS work being done in a home is allowed.

Last lockdown everyone was inside. This one there's going to be loads more activity. The kids will be out and about after school too.

Last lock down got us to 0.5 r number. This lockdown wont because more stuff is open. Good luck to them but it wont hit the target in terms of cases (unless level 3 with household visiting ban had a positive effect we haven't observed yet).

ednwireland

leo being bad cop now

Irish pubs: Bars and shops closed over Christmas unless Ireland hits 'impossible' R number and cases target

https://www.dublinlive.ie/whats-on/food-drink-news/pubs-ireland-food-rules-covid19-19134392

Atlantic Dawn

Last lockdown we were coming in to the summer, weather was picking up, now it's all doom...some big downpour of snow for a week would be great to get Covid off the headlines for a few days.

is_that_so

ednwireland wrote: »

leo being bad cop now



https://www.dublinlive.ie/whats-on/food-drink-news/pubs-ireland-food-rules-covid19-19134392

Nothing in that suggests he is, just speaking honestly and factually. He's echoing the belief that the year is probably over for most people anyway.

manniot2

manniot2 wrote: »

Why would we target that? The cost to get to this will be death, poverty and misery. For what?

For what? Exactly. 100 cases a day will only rise again, especially with Christmas gatherings, and we will have another lockdown in February, which will be utterly destructive.

Maybe a late winter lockdown will be the end of it though, because then we'll be in the spring and summer, will be outside more, and then hopefully a vaccine for higher risk people. Maybe one more lockdown after this one is the best that we can hope for

ednwireland

ednwireland wrote: »

leo being bad cop now



https://www.dublinlive.ie/whats-on/food-drink-news/pubs-ireland-food-rules-covid19-19134392

Yes, but he is not wrong. We are not going to go from level 5 to a Christmas pub free-for-all in the space of a couple of weeks. Pubs are done for this year