Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

odyssey06

funnydoggy wrote: »

Does this mean that asymptomatic people won't be counted and told they're negative?

Suggest having a read of this... it possibly more relates to how much viral load someone has but there is also a chance you could miss someone in very early stages of infection. It should skip people who had been infected months ago but were missed in previous testing.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

spookwoman

Renjit

Dr. Bre wrote: »

You live once. Don’t live in fear

Yo, drop the beat, Dr. Bre :cool:

440Hertz

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Very well said IMO. We also have a Government down here that apparently refuses to comment on or articulate the danger that NI poses also. All afraid of offending someone. As you say this is life and death. Get it sorted and move on from all this pussyfooting around political snowflakes.

There are and will likely continue to be restrictions within the UK to prevent spread between either England, Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland or, between specific regions of those places and there are likely to be further issues down the line after this in the Republic with county-by-county problems cropping up in the future.

If you want to be considered part of an all island community if you're an Irish nationalist or republican, or two-island community if you're a unionist or loyalist, you're going to have to play ball with your neighbours in North-South or East-West direction and that will have to include county-lines movement restrictions or similar in and out of Britain.

This thing does not care about your political affiliations or views.

Likewise for travel within the EU or international travel beyond the EU, we absolutely are going to need testing and creation of corporation bubbles of known and similar risk or we aren't going to be able to manage this at all.

So far, the intra-country corporation between the EU members, the CTA members and on border international connected regions has been a complete and utter mess of knee jerk responses, regionalism, exceptionalism and nationalism and utterly lacking any kind of serious strategy and it hasn't been helped by often abysmal leadership from some quarters.

Martina1991

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

The reclassification of how Covid cases are counted as highlighted by EOD earlier today, without clear communication to the public, seems underhanded by government, NPHET and the HSE. At least we will now get a better idea of numbers of cases of we are posting on a daily basis that represents a transmission risk.

It was a proposal.

That doesn't mean it has happened or will happen. So people should not take a tweet as gospel and make assumptions that this is some reason for falling cases. Its not. Cases are falling due to people reducing their number of contacts and following restrictions.

There are various analsyers in use all over the country for PCR. They are operated as per the manufacturer's guidelines for the purpose they are used.

I was working today and talking to my colleague in Microbiology and asked her about it. She hadn't heard of any recommendations being introduced.

Their analyser has the ability to go up to 45 cycles, but they havent yet had a positive patient above 31 cycles. Any sample detected over 35 cycles will be repeated as per their SOPs.

So just because a lab operates on an analyser up to 40 or 45 cycles does not mean whatsoever that a large number, or any samples, are detected at that level and are reported without being repeated.

This proposal is nothing new to labs that have their own limits of detection, regulations and controls in place anyway.

Wolf359f

Stheno wrote: »

Apparently they no longer count positives that are detected over 30 cycles of testing, they retest them to confirm

Above a cycle of 30 there are very small.amounts of virus iirc

Sorry for the crude explanation

Not that it's easy to read the document, but if it's detected using a higher CT cycle they will test it again. If it's positive again, it's counted as a positive case and if it's negative the second time, it's not classed as a case.

It seems more in how to deal with people who previously tested positive and a retest is showing they still have covid. If it's detected with a higher cycle the second time around they are less infectious, if it's detected with a lower CT cycle second time around they are more infectious. It could also be a way to find out where they are on the infection timeline, presymptomatic etc...

But it looks like the false positive rate, it's just be thrown around Twitter as a fact, even though the document is titled as a proposal.

Spanish Eyes

440Hertz wrote: »

There are and will likely continue to be restrictions within the UK to prevent spread between either England, Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland or, between specific regions of those places and there are likely to be further issues down the line after this in the Republic with county-by-county problems cropping up in the future.

If you want to be considered part of an all island community if you're an Irish nationalist or republican, or two-island community if you're a unionist or loyalist, you're going to have to play ball with your neighbours in North-South or East-West direction and that will have to include county-lines movement restrictions or similar in and out of Britain.

This thing does not care about your political affiliations or views.

Likewise for travel within the EU or international travel beyond the EU, we absolutely are going to need testing and creation of corporation bubbles of known and similar risk or we aren't going to be able to manage this at all.

So far, the intra-country corporation between the EU members, the CTA members and on border international connected regions has been a complete and utter mess of knee jerk responses, regionalism, exceptionalism and nationalism and utterly lacking any kind of serious strategy and it hasn't been helped by often abysmal leadership from some quarters.

You are dead right. But no one is listening. Everyone for themselves. That will solve nothing. All afraid of offending someone or something or some country etc. With the political and sectarian issue in the mix too meaning little co-operation with us here in the South.

It should be about people, not politics. The economy will recover but dead people won't.

TheDeep

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

According to the thread EOD posted, they will be if there's no significant increase in Ct on second testing even if testing positive:

'

1) A positive test with Ct > 30 will be re-tested using a different test kit.
2) If negative second time, it is discounted.
3) If positive second time but... 1/4

...with no change or significant increase in Ct, it will be deemed asymptomatic AND WILL NOT BE NOTIFIED TO PUBLIC HEALTH. '

This is great. But as said further down the Twitter thread. People will place the credit for reduced cases on Level 5 and use it as justification to keep the place locked down.

KrustyUCC

Stheno wrote: »

Apparently they no longer count positives that are detected over 30 cycles of testing, they retest them to confirm

Above a cycle of 30 there are very small.amounts of virus iirc

Sorry for the crude explanation

Not at all

Thanks for that

WoollyRedHat

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

According to the thread EOD posted, they will be if there's no significant increase in Ct on second testing even if testing positive:

'

1) A positive test with Ct > 30 will be re-tested using a different test kit.
2) If negative second time, it is discounted.
3) If positive second time but... 1/4

...with no change or significant increase in Ct, it will be deemed asymptomatic AND WILL NOT BE NOTIFIED TO PUBLIC HEALTH. '





Click on Twitter thread for detail on what Ct means.

I believe this was taken from a HSPC document on 8th October- https://www.dropbox.com/s/q8wqeag4og1zsih/PCR%20weak%20results%20guidance.pdf?dl=0

Can anyone confirm if PCR testing protocols have been revised?

Wolf359f

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

...with no change or significant increase in Ct, it will be deemed asymptomatic AND WILL NOT BE NOTIFIED TO PUBLIC HEALTH. '

Just on this point, it's only people who have previously tested positive for covid and on their second test, with a higher CT value compared to their first test, would they be deemed asymptomatic and will not be notified (again) as a case. As they were already counted.

440Hertz

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

You are dead right. But no one is listening. Everyone for themselves. That will solve nothing. All afraid of offending someone or something or some country etc. With the political and sectarian issue in the mix too meaning little co-operation with us here in the South.

It should be about people, not politics. The economy will recover but dead people won't.

In my view of it one of the first things that should have been parked for a year or two was Brexit. It's insanity that is going to hit the wall in January. Whatever the views people may hold on it, there's absolutely no sane reason why it needed to be delivered in the middle of a pandemic.

Status quo until say 2025 wouldn't kill anyone or upset anyone, but somehow the circus must go on, no matter how dire the consequences and circumstances.

Mind-blowing really. I'd say this will probably go down as an era of extreme stupidity in quite a few aspects of politics around the world.

I've just got no respect whatsoever for those driving it anymore - it's braindead, dogmatic nonsense and it absolutely could have been temporarily parked until this was dealt with, but... sigh... humans and their petty squabbles.

kippy

440Hertz wrote: »

In my view of it one of the first things that should have been parked for a year or two was Brexit. It's insanity that is going to hit the wall in January. Whatever the views people may hold on it, there's absolutely no sane reason why it needed to be delivered in the middle of a pandemic.

Status quo until say 2025 wouldn't kill anyone or upset anyone, but somehow the circus must go on, no matter how dire the consequences and circumstances.

Mind-blowing really. I'd say this will probably go down as an era of extreme stupidity in quite a few aspects of politics around the world.

It's need to be done at this stage. Some certainty and deal with the consequences.

Thierry12

Stheno wrote: »

Apparently they no longer count positives that are detected over 30 cycles of testing, they retest them to confirm

Above a cycle of 30 there are very small.amounts of virus iirc

Sorry for the crude explanation

Haha

The sneaky bastards

I called this weeks ago

What a way to make the lockdowns look great

They'll up the sensitivity when we are out of lockdown, just wait

political analyst

440Hertz wrote: »

In my view of it one of the first things that should have been parked for a year or two was Brexit. It's insanity that is going to hit the wall in January. Whatever the views people may hold on it, there's absolutely no sane reason why it needed to be delivered in the middle of a pandemic.

Status quo until say 2025 wouldn't kill anyone or upset anyone, but somehow the circus must go on, no matter how dire the consequences and circumstances.

Mind-blowing really. I'd say this will probably go down as an era of extreme stupidity in quite a few aspects of politics around the world.

I've just got no respect whatsoever for those driving it anymore - it's braindead, dogmatic nonsense and it absolutely could have been temporarily parked until this was dealt with, but... sigh... humans and their petty squabbles.

In the current period of turbulence, the end of the transition period without a deal would be barely noticed because a no-deal Brexit would not have led to a shutdown of shops, pubs and restaurants - given that the arrival of the Troika in Dublin certainly didn't!

440Hertz

kippy wrote: »

It's need to be done at this stage. Some certainty and deal with the consequences.

There won't be any certainty. They have continued with the same dogmatic, undeliverable, rhetorical nonsense for years and made almost no progress whatsoever on anything other than sowing stories in the tabloids.

Neither the UK nor the EU needs a second economic bang in the middle of all of this, yet that's what we're getting.

The most likely outcome of this is not going to be the generation of certainty, but some kind of messy situation that will probably take 10 years or more to unpick.

The notion that there'll be a snap of fingers and the entire thing can be unwound and reconfigured by January is at best naive, at worst downright deliberate and misleading insanity.

So, yeah -- do Brexit in the middle of the pandemic. Sure I don't know. I mean the world's nuts enough as it is, why not just put all the crazy into one big pile and dance on it.

WoollyRedHat

Wolf359f wrote: »

Just on this point, it's only people who have previously tested positive for covid and on their second test, with a higher CT value compared to their first test, would they be deemed asymptomatic and will not be notified (again) as a case. As they were already counted.

Really, I took it to mean they would not be notified or are we talking about someone who tests positive , weeks after first PCR positive?

ETA: I read previous post of yours and that makes sense, thanks for clarification.

Fuascailteoir

kippy wrote: »

It's need to be done at this stage. Some certainty and deal with the consequences.

Will lead to years of uncertainty

Spanish Eyes

440Hertz wrote: »

In my view of it one of the first things that should have been parked for a year or two was Brexit. It's insanity that is going to hit the wall in January. Whatever the views people may hold on it, there's absolutely no sane reason why it needed to be delivered in the middle of a pandemic.

Status quo until say 2025 wouldn't kill anyone or upset anyone, but somehow the circus must go on, no matter how dire the consequences and circumstances.

Mind-blowing really. I'd say this will probably go down as an era of extreme stupidity in quite a few aspects of politics around the world.

I've just got no respect whatsoever for those driving it anymore - it's braindead, dogmatic nonsense and it absolutely could have been temporarily parked until this was dealt with, but... sigh... humans and their petty squabbles.

I have largely given up on the Westminster Government now. Brexit is a promise to the ERG and gammons largely in the SE of England who do not need a description regarding their views on many things Foreign. If Biden wins in US there is a chance that something positive may come from this. Not sure if Trump holds on.

Johnson would not introduce a lockdown a week ago, as Starmer had proposed it. I know that is politics, and that would be ok in different times, not now. Their right hands do not know what their left hands are doing at the moment. And the confusion I read on UK fora would mess your head. It is people's lives we are talking about here, not some ephemeral House of Commons Bill to protect a wildlife enclave. Honestly.

The mother of Parliaments indeed.

kippy

440Hertz wrote: »

There won't be any certainty. They have continued with the same dogmatic, undeliverable, rhetorical nonsense for years and made almost no progress whatsoever on anything other than sewing stories in the tabloids.

Neither the UK nor the EU needs a second economic bang in the middle of all of this, yet that's what we're getting.

The most likely outcome of this is not going to be the generation of certainty, but some kind of messy situation that will probably take 10 years or more to unpick.

The notion that there'll be a snap of fingers and the entire thing can be unwound and reconfigured by January is at best naive, at worst downright deliberate and misleading insanity.

So, yeah -- do Brexit in the middle of the pandemic. Sure I don't know. I mean the world's nuts enough as it is, why not just put all the crazy into one big pile and dance on it.

There's no certainty till it's done. Crystalise it. Totally uncertainty at the moment and for the last 5 years. Time to bite the bullet.

440Hertz

I've given up on the whole thing. They're messing around with the pandemic in the UK, the US and quite a few continental countries too.

It's being used as yet another political football instead of practical issue to solve and in the end all that will happen is the US and Europe will slip into being far less relevant than they once were due to what is basically amounting to utter incompetence and chasing things down rabbit holes.

It's frustrating to watch as various places, including here, just repeatedly score own goals over and over and over.

Wolf359f

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Really, I took it to mean they would not be notified or are we talking about someone who tests positive , weeks after first PCR positive?

Take Ronaldo as an example. His first test was a positive detection weeks ago with a CT value of 30. (Just making up figures as an example) his case was then notified and added to the case numbers. A week later he gets another test with covid detected with a CT value of 35. Under these proposals, they would retest the sample again and if it's not detected, he's clear. If it's detected again with the same or higher CT value, he's considered asymptomatic and that second result doesn't have to be notified to public health.
Remember his first positive test was already notified and counted.

440Hertz

kippy wrote: »

There's no certainty till it's done. Crystalise it. Totally uncertainty at the moment and for the last 5 years. Time to bite the bullet.

There's no bullet to be bitten. There's certainly a huge pile of manure to jump into though.

There is however a massively complex deal to be negotiated that will probably take a decade or so to complete.

Had the UK wanted to set a sane timetable for leaving the EU, worked its way through it in a friendly and sensible way, then we wouldn't be where we are now - i.e. having spent the best part of 4 years running around in circles spewing bile.

That's really all that's happened since 2016 and apparently, in the middle of a massive global health crisis that's screwing up transport and has half the business world in turmoil, we're going to threaten to shut the trade flows down and cause logistical chaos, including here in Ireland.

I mean, humanity has a long history of being utter morons, and it seems not much has changed in that regard.

All I know is I'm sorry I didn't emigrate from this daft region of the world, and I'd include the EU in that.

NZ or Australia wouldn't have been the worst options the last time the US, EU, Ireland and the UK managed to drive the titanic into an iceberg back in 2008.

UrbanFret

Cavan less than 5 today. As I said before cases here **** all to do with the north. Travel between cavan and Fermanagh continuing as Normal. Level 3 got us here if the truth be told. Pity the Government having initially held their nerve caved in to pressure from Nphet fuelled by the hysterical Media and the scaremongering "Experts". Any level would work if the population followed the guidelines properly and not the half arsed approach you get from so many. Conundrum now is if the cases fall too quickly and they reverse pressure starts to be applied.

Away With The Fairies

Another good day of numbers in the south but still too early to tell.

But very high numbers in the north. What's the point getting our numbers low if the north remains high?

I've always wanted an all Ireland approach. It benefits everyone on this island.

Reading up on a different virus earlier on. Nipah virus has a high mortality rate (I think the movie contagion was based on this virus). If we ever get a virus like that, are they happy to let people die instead of doing something to get rid of the virus?

sonofenoch

hynesie08 wrote: »

173 in Dublin, not as good a % as previous days but the numbers are dropping.

Schools back tomorrow....in week 1 a 30% increase, week 2 85% increase .....from then the sky's the limit

iamwhoiam

This lockdown is going to be tough . We couldn’t even get out for a walk today . Was no point in going for spin within 5kms

No comparison with bright days and sitting in the garden and pottering out for a walk a few times a day .


“ Are we there yet ? “

440Hertz

The weather should improve tomorrow, but today has just been ... Torrential rain here for much of the day.

I went out for a walk in the rain and just got wet to get out.

Martina1991

Thierry12 wrote: »

Haha

The sneaky bastards

I called this weeks ago

What a way to make the lockdowns look great

They'll up the sensitivity when we are out of lockdown, just wait

Sorry, who are the "sneaky bastards"? The laboratory scientists?

Yes its all one big elaborate scamdemic by Dr. Tony Holohan and the lizard people to keep people indoors in order to implant the population with mind control devices to buy shares in Microsoft.


Testing procedures aren't just changed willy nilly overnight for no reason. It doesn't work like that.

funnydoggy

Martina1991 wrote: »

Sorry, who are the "sneaky bastards"? The laboratory scientists?

Yes its all one big elaborate scamdemic by Dr. Tony Holohan and the lizard people to keep people indoors in order to implant the population with mind control devices to buy shares in Microsoft.


Testing procedures aren't just changed willy nilly overnight for no reason. It doesn't work like that.

Nobody believes this, not even the OP you quoted