Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

ACitizenErased

I dont think that hospital number is correct tbh

Strumms

naughtysmurf wrote: »

Pre flight tests should be taken in your local pharmacy up to 72 hrs before departure IMO

That could work maybe. They could issue a document with a barcode that you’d need to scan at security, to enable you to pass, hmmm don’t see any problem with that.

Derek Zoolander

Strumms wrote: »

Yep, just not going to happen.

I think I’d rather stay at home then go through all that. Airports are a pain in the backside ever since 9/11. Throw in screening for covid, nahhh keep it.

Globally something has to be figured out - we know that second wave infections across Europe came from Spain and through travel...
So many industries dependent on travel but its currently biggest risk to 3rd wave once eu comes out of 2nd lockdown...

There will be billions available to resolve the issue - need some smart solutions and wuickly

eigrod

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I dont think that hospital number is correct tbh

Fixed now. 317 in hospital.

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

normanoffside

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I dont think that hospital number is correct tbh

The Hub is showing 317 at 8am this morning

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

naughtysmurf

OwenM wrote: »

That will only provide you some assurance that you are not affected, the country you want to visit or the airline you want to use have no assurance from a test performed like this.

Really what needs to happen is that the EU declare for travel within the EU the following test or tests are regonised for departure & entry to all EU countries, all carriers operating in the EU must also accept, get it in your local pharmacy or other accredited clinic, I don't know what you mean by "a test performed like this"

muddypuppy

Italy has some internal flights where only people that carried out a test are allowed to board - see alitalia.com/en_it/fly-alitalia/news-and-activities/news/covid-tested-flights.html
They either accept a PCR test done 72 hours before, or a "quick" test done directly at the airport. Both of them are free, so it's up to what you find more convenient.

Of course it's only a couple internal flights per-day, but I don't think it would be problematic to expand it to the whole EU area. We really just need a common plan across all the countries, which is kinda what is being talked at the moment (but I think it leaves too much leeway to every individual country). Several countries already accept a PCR test done in another country as a way to skip quarantine, so it's definitely possible.

That said I don't expect anything like this to come to ireland any time soon, for some reason the government is being extremely slow in legislating anything related to travel (beside "advising" people to not travel and quarantine).

speckle

Just thinking out loud... I know it doesnt exist yet.. but what about a cheap reliable appropriate t cell test etc and a legal waiver/medical travel insurance?That would be living with covid?

Ficheall

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Level 3 has basically had the same impact that a full lockdown had back in April.
Scotland, who imposed similar restrictions earlier, have seen far less value from them.

It feels to me that we've been more than a little jammy.

Our testing is also down though. I'd be more confident in the drop in cases if the drop in testing weren't almost as great.
The drop in cases is probably a contributing factor in the drop in testing, but the drop in testing is probably a contributing factor in the drop in cases also..

That said, we do seem to be headed in the right direction. Hopefully we can keep it up.

hmmm

muddypuppy wrote: »

Of course it's only a couple internal flights per-day, but I don't think it would be problematic to expand it to the whole EU area. We really just need a common plan across all the countries, which is kinda what is being talked at the moment (but I think it leaves too much leeway to every individual country). Several countries already accept a PCR test done in another country as a way to skip quarantine, so it's definitely possible.

A quick google says that the travel industry contributes 1.3 trillion to the EU economy. I don't buy arguments about space or inconvenience - people want to travel and will turn up an hour or two earlier to get tested, and governments will happily spend tens of millions throwing up temporary testing areas if it gets their tourist industry going again.

Whatever happens on testing has to be common, agreed. I'd expect the Med countries which are heavily tourism dependent will agree amongst themselves a common standard. Individual countries which are not as tourism-dependent may agree more stringent standards.

A bigger issue for the travel industry is what happens when you test positive on the way home.

Strumms

muddypuppy wrote: »

Italy has some internal flights where only people that carried out a test are allowed to board - see alitalia.com/en_it/fly-alitalia/news-and-activities/news/covid-tested-flights.html
They either accept a PCR test done 72 hours before, or a "quick" test done directly at the airport. Both of them are free, so it's up to what you find more convenient.

Of course it's only a couple internal flights per-day, but I don't think it would be problematic to expand it to the whole EU area. We really just need a common plan across all the countries, which is kinda what is being talked at the moment (but I think it leaves too much leeway to every individual country). Several countries already accept a PCR test done in another country as a way to skip quarantine, so it's definitely possible.

That said I don't expect anything like this to come to ireland any time soon, for some reason the government is being extremely slow in legislating anything related to travel (beside "advising" people to not travel and quarantine).

It’s big time problematic...airports in general don’t have the logistical space to carry out the tests or the staff to do it....

stephenjmcd

NI report 7 deaths, 493 new cases from 2012 tests.

379 cases in hospital, 52 in ICU of which 42 are on ventilators.

By population our hospitals are in a much more favourable position compared to NI

Jinglejangle69

Did I hear the current strain and majority of cases in Ireland came from Spain in June?

Travel doesn't account for cases we were told.

OwenM

Ficheall wrote: »

Our testing is also down though. I'd be more confident in the drop in cases if the drop in testing weren't almost as great.
The drop in cases is probably a contributing factor in the drop in testing, but the drop in testing is probably a contributing factor in the drop in cases also..

That said, we do seem to be headed in the right direction. Hopefully we can keep it up.

If you tested 20,000 people in 2018 you'd have 140 cases, inherent false positive rate, the lack of people presenting for tests, i.e. symptomatic people doesn't justify testing the difference with the earlier volumes - logically if covid disappeared tomorrow you'd still have cases, but nobody in hospital and today was the lowest number of admissions in about 6 weeks.

Stheno

stephenjmcd wrote: »

NI report 7 deaths, 493 new cases from 2012 tests.

379 cases in hospital, 52 in ICU of which 42 are on ventilators.

By population our hospitals are in a much more favourable position compared to NI

Their positivity is now 25%

It's going up, not down

schmoo2k

Ficheall wrote: »

Our testing is also down though. I'd be more confident in the drop in cases if the drop in testing weren't almost as great.
The drop in cases is probably a contributing factor in the drop in testing, but the drop in testing is probably a contributing factor in the drop in cases also..

That said, we do seem to be headed in the right direction. Hopefully we can keep it up.

The positivity (num tests v num positive results) numbers would clarify that (not sure where they are).

bb1234567

Stheno wrote: »

Their positivity is now 25%

It's going up, not down

That's incredible so they're actually reducing testing capacity quite significantly, wtf have they just given up?

OwenM

OwenM wrote: »

If you tested 20,000 people in 2018 you'd have 140 cases, inherent false positive rate, the lack of people presenting for tests, i.e. symptomatic people doesn't justify testing the difference with the earlier volumes - logically if covid disappeared tomorrow you'd still have cases, but nobody in hospital and today was the lowest number of admissions in about 6 weeks.

If your contention about false positives were true, how is it explained that 90,000 tests in June generated only 483 positives and that there were over 70 hospital admissions? Using the assumed false positive rate this should have been 630.

This general line being pushed on false positives is a fundamental misunderstanding of Test method validation an error rates. A sensitivity of 99.3% for example does not mean 0.7% of results will return false positives, it means the sample size used to validate the test method cant guarantee that anymore than 99.3% will be true positives

Stheno

bb1234567 wrote: »

That's incredible so they're actually reducing testing capacity quite significantly, wtf have they just given up?

Dunno but todays numbers are about half the amount of tests that were being reported last week iirc

It's a bit strange

eigrod

Ficheall wrote: »

Our testing is also down though. I'd be more confident in the drop in cases if the drop in testing weren't almost as great.
The drop in cases is probably a contributing factor in the drop in testing, but the drop in testing is probably a contributing factor in the drop in cases also..

That said, we do seem to be headed in the right direction. Hopefully we can keep it up.

There were 96k tests carried out in the 7 days to 31/10. That’s still a significant number of tests.

mloc123

Stheno wrote: »

Dunno but todays numbers are about half the amount of tests that were being reported last week iirc

It's a bit strange

Trump strategy... just test less and the cases go down :pac:

CIARAN_BOYLE

bb1234567 wrote: »

That's incredible so they're actually reducing testing capacity quite significantly, wtf have they just given up?

Testing capacity is usuall fairly flat at around 7k tests a day. Theres an increasing number of tests that aren't counted as new individual tests.

There is a sunday effect though. 4k lab tests on 2k individuals.

I'm not reall sure what's going on. I guess theres a bunch of medical staff and hospital patients being tested daily that aren't included in individual testing numbers as it would distort them.

speckle

stephenjmcd wrote: »

NI report 7 deaths, 493 new cases from 2012 tests.

379 cases in hospital, 52 in ICU of which 42 are on ventilators.

By population our hospitals are in a much more favourable position compared to NI

Question.. do they have more hospital capacity and Icu beds specialists etc per population then here due to recent history? Or less?

CIARAN_BOYLE

speckle wrote: »

Question.. do they have more hospital capacity and Icu beds specialists etc per population then here due to recent history? Or less?

More. Roughly twice icu capacity iirc though that may include surge capacity. Due to NHS rather than history (maybe).

speckle

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Did I hear the current strain and majority of cases in Ireland came from Spain in June?

Travel doesn't account for cases we were told.

Cant remember if its the majority but they have the data that a lot are linked to a Spanish variation.

Rob A. Bank

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Did I hear the current strain and majority of cases in Ireland came from Spain in June?

Travel doesn't account for cases we were told.

Take the 'hero' from the Mid-West who did not isolate after a trip abroad and was the index case for 56 cases.

Should that episode be classified as one travel related case or 56 travel related cases ?

stephenjmcd

speckle wrote: »

Question.. do they have more hospital capacity and Icu beds specialists etc per population then here due to recent history? Or less?

In total they have 2853 general beds of which 2689 are currently in use. In terms of ICU, 120 beds total, 16 unoccupied. 52 covid paitents and 52 non covid in ICU.

Source is NI dept Health dashboard

TonyMaloney

schmoo2k wrote: »

The positivity (num tests v num positive results) numbers would clarify that (not sure where they are).

Not sure how much can be garnered from this.

One thing though - it's been suggested that the number of tests carried out is falling due to demand falling - but we were doing similar numbers back in mid september with a significantly lower positivity rate.

ACitizenErased

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Take the 'hero' from the Mid-West who did not isolate after a trip abroad and was the index case for 56 cases.

Should that episode be classified as one travel related case or 56 travel related cases ?

The people he directly infected are counted as travel, the contacts of his contacts are counted as close contacts

Non solum non ambulabit

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The people he directly infected are counted as travel, the contacts of his contacts are counted as close contacts

Makes sense otherwise 100% would be travel