Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

That's essentially it, and any reasonable individual should have contacted anyone they interacted with once they got the result (or even when they were going for a test to give them the heads up).

Indeed.

The problem with that is in regards to schools the parents and principle were expressly forbidden from doing this.

Add to that fact that DOE policy dictates that if parents of students decide themselves they are close contacts and choose to stay at home and self isolate, those kids were not to be given any home resources in terms of education.

So yeah a reasonable individual may do a lot of things, a system that is unreasonable will try and make sure they don't.

Boggles

is_that_so wrote: »

A principal doing a solo run, just talking to his board and making public health calls about his region was going to end one way.

DIY public health calls is policy now, did you miss the memo?

is_that_so

Boggles wrote: »

Indeed.

The problem with that is in regards to schools the parents and principle were expressly forbidden from doing this.

Add to that fact that DOE policy dictates that if parents of students decide themselves they are close contacts and choose to stay at home and self isolate, those kids were not to be given any home resources in terms of education.

So yeah a reasonable individual may do a lot of things, a system that is unreasonable will try and make sure they don't.

They are declaring themselves unavailable for school or work and in normal circumstance wouldn't get any support anyway.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Indeed.

The problem with that is in regards to schools the parents and principle were expressly forbidden from doing this.

Add to that fact that DOE policy dictates that if parents of students decide themselves they are close contacts and choose to stay at home and self isolate, those kids were not to be given any home resources in terms of education.

So yeah a reasonable individual may do a lot of things, a system that is unreasonable will try and make sure they don't.

Thats why close contact protocols for workplaces , schools and other organised facilities where people gather should be clear, with minimum ambiguity and managed at a local level. It is a mistake to take contact tracing in schools out of the hands of principals or a designated covid officer within the location

is_that_so

statesaver wrote: »

So, we are where we are with this six weeks lockdown because contact tracing broke down and the Government couldn't be bothered increasing ICU beds over the last 8 months. Jesus wept.

Contact tracing is breaking down because of the sheer numbers of cases and their respective contacts.

Jinglejangle69

statesaver wrote: »

So, we are where we are with this six weeks lockdown because contact tracing broke down and the Government couldn't be bothered increasing ICU beds over the last 8 months. Jesus wept.

Having ICU capacity doesn't stop people going into ICU and dying from covid.

is_that_so

Boggles wrote: »

DIY public health calls is policy now, did you miss the memo?

Blindfold archery!

Boggles

is_that_so wrote: »

They are declaring themselves unavailable for school or work and in normal circumstance wouldn't get any support anyway.

Doesn't apply now does it?

I mean the principle would be completely unreasonable if he did that 12 months ago.

Personally I don't think you needed to point that out, but there you go.

ixoy

is_that_so wrote: »

Contact tracing is breaking down because of the sheer numbers of cases and their respective contacts.

Shame nobody had developed a model predicting this rise and then acted on it...

8k71ps

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54624359

The report notes the mass closure of schools would have a moderate impact on the R rate, of between 0.2 and 0.5.

It says the closure of secondary schools may be more effective than closing schools for younger pupils.

Ah here lads, how can anyone honestly say that we're much different? We'll in be lock-down till January if it's 0.5 in schools alone, sure the rate might even stabilise at 1 outside of Dublin if the upper limit is correct.

growleaves

Here’s how the media is misreporting COVID-19’s death toll in America

2020’s attributed COVID-19 deaths were equivalent to having another 2017-2018 flu and pneumonia season boosted by 13 percent.

The CDC estimated that about 177,000 Americans died during the 2017-2018 flu season, from either the flu itself or by complications of pneumonia. (The CDC never made a public announcement about this number, but you can count it yourself from data on its site, as I did in the chart below.) That was a bad year, noted at the time, but mostly by medical professionals.

It might seem odd that testing numbers are going up even as attributed deaths drop. But this paradox is largely due to the fact that we do so much testing. Deaths re-peaked in late July as the virus spread in southern states for the first time. They have been dropping rapidly since. If the current rate of decline holds, attributed deaths will drop to a background level by the end of October.

Even calling positive tests “cases” overstates the problem. True cases are active illnesses that need treatment. But by now most people testing positive are asymptomatic or have only mild illness.

That’s the real lead in this story: Fewer people are dying and more people are recovering with few or no problems.

iamwhoiam

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Having ICU capacity doesn't stop people going into ICU and dying from covid.

Having increased ICU capacity will of course give people a better chance of survival >

FlubberJones

j@utis wrote: »

I want to remind you that schools are somewhat childcare facilities for many parents that have no other option but to go to work [essential workers]. Are you free to mind my children if that happens? For free of course, because we pay upfront for afterschool care and that's non-refundable, and we're not paying twice for the same thing.
I hate them for closing the gyms too, btw.

Appreciate your position but I'm being honest, this has got to the stage where I'm becoming slightly selfish and thinking of my own situation.
I have to do and act as requested as the lockdown is in place but the "way" it has been put in simply does not make sense to me and is an unintelligent response to the continuing pandemic

Happydays2020

is_that_so wrote: »

Contact tracing is breaking down because of the sheer numbers of cases and their respective contacts.

Although the contact tracing process was extremely limited and did the bare minimum rather than try to really trace where the infection may have occurred. I am not sure if they are doing the more in-depth tracing now.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Thats why close contact protocols for workplaces , schools and other organised facilities where people gather should be clear, with minimum ambiguity and managed at a local level. It is a mistake to take contact tracing in schools out of the hands of principals or a designated covid officer within the location

They are pretty clear in schools which are actually workplaces, people tend to forget that fact.

It's next to impossible to be deemed a close contact and if you do a solo run you will be punished.

In terms of schools and covid, Fight Club rules apply.

What other workplace can you think of with a similar protocol?

What was that word you used? Oh yeah Reasonable.

School told maskless students were not close contacts with SNA despite 'intimate care level'

The bar is higher than that.

What's the fúcking bar?

is_that_so

ixoy wrote: »

Shame nobody had developed a model predicting this rise and then acted on it...

Kind of hard when the numbers of possible close contacts can vary from 2-3 to 83, with kids having lots of them. Reducing transmission links is much easier to implement via restrictions.

Richard Hillman

We're essentially going to go back to March where you needed 2-3 symptoms to get a test

Jinglejangle69

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Having increased ICU capacity will of course give people a better chance of survival >

People will die regardless of ICU capacity.

13 announced yesterday with ICU capacity still available.

8k71ps

j@utis wrote: »

I want to remind you that schools are somewhat childcare facilities for many parents that have no other option but to go to work [essential workers]. Are you free to mind my children if that happens? For free of course, because we pay upfront for afterschool care and that's non-refundable, and we're not paying twice for the same thing.
I hate them for closing the gyms too, btw.

Schools seem to be an extremely large spreader in most other countries, and childcare for essential workers could be worked out pretty easily , infact it would be easier with the schools closed for them in that regard than if they were open.

Sure **** it, why not just reopen the country if we're not going to address the main points of infection, it'll be completely unmanageable by December anyways.

is_that_so

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Although the contact tracing process was extremely limited and did the bare minimum rather than try to really trace where the infection may have occurred. I am not sure if they are doing the more in-depth tracing now.

It may not be but are close contacts they find even following the protocols? While I know next to no cases I do know quite a few who've been landed with the 14 day holiday and irate is an understatement for how they feel. These are people who will follow it so one imagine there are others who will just ignore it, especially as you are not sick in any way.

Jim_Hodge

Enter name here wrote: »

I run a retail chain and have had this argument all day long with the owners. If you can show me where is says you can leave the 5 kms radius to go shopping for non essential items show me. As i said to the owners today, against my judgment which was to close the shops down across the country they want to keep them open and offer click and collect. I said fine I will inform the managers to keep skeleton staff on and at all branches and offer click and collect. I will also ask customers to provide a photo ID showing that they reside within the 5km limit, if they do not I will ask managers not to serve them.

You don't seem to get it. If the store is operating click and collect then customers are permitted to go and collect. You're some tulip that would want ID and will adjudicate on who may or may not collect their item - what a way to destroy the business by misinterpreting the rules!

is_that_so

Richard Hillman wrote: »

We're essentially going to go back to March where you needed 2-3 symptoms to get a test

No, I don't think so. Feeling off is nearly good enough now for a test.

Good trend in Donegal, if nowhere else

s1ippy

What fresh hell awaits.

Be sure and take everyone's phone number that you see today, you'll thank me when you have to call and tell them you infected them.

The Halloween theme music is playing in my head on a near-constant basis now. Paddygreen, hold me.

iamwhoiam

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

People will die regardless of ICU capacity.

13 announced yesterday with ICU capacity still available.

And wait till they are full and no bed for a person who has a hear attack ,What then ?

Plumbthedepths

Speaking of Paddygreen, where is he? I haven't seen any updates from the Bunker recently. Which I must add bring a smile to my face, admittedly at first I pegged him as a WUM but now I see the satire.

Jinglejangle69

iamwhoiam wrote: »

And wait till they are full and no bed for a person who has a hear attack ,What then ?

Sorry I was referring to your first post that we have lockdown again because the track and trace system has collapsed and there is not enough ICU beds.

Maybe took you up wrong.

wirelessdude01

Love how people are saying how schools should contact trace the cases in them. Don't people realise that what constitutes a close co tact in a school environment seems to change every few days and also differs based on what each of lix health team thinks.

There is a reason why school gojng cases have been pulled from the weekend and will be officially traced. I'd imagine if schools were allowed do it then the amount of close contacts per case would be significantly higher than if were determined by public health.

Anyone noticed that cases in 5-14year olds are finally rising as a proportion of all cases, and are now almost back to pre-school reopening levels. This of course came in the couple of weeks after cases spiked in their parents age groups. Who got it from whom?

j@utis

Are they actually sick and feeling very unwell or just "cases"?

wirelessdude01

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Love how people are saying how schools should contact trace the cases in them. Don't people realise that what constitutes a close co tact in a school environment seems to change every few days and also differs based on what each of lix health team thinks.

There is a reason why school gojng cases have been pulled from the weekend and will be officially traced. I'd imagine if schools were allowed do it then the amount of close contacts per case would be significantly higher than if were determined by public health.

But still, even from those contacts tested, the proportion of positive tests is lower than elsewhere. And if the net is too narrow, that are only getting the most likely to have been exposed

CoronaBlocker

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

The only idiot here is you.you should be ashamed of yourself wishing to “see cases Skyrocket” in schools.
What a horrible thing to say.
You’d wonder where humanity is going when you see posts like that.

I think there's a lot of people on here that are angry - and justifiably so right now - but we have to remember that people will also need to vent... and some will do it here. I'm sure this person doesn't really want to see cases anywhere sky-rocket. Let's all try and be a bit more rational.

s1ippy

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Speaking of Paddygreen, where is he? I haven't seen any updates from the Bunker recently. Which I must add bring a smile to my face, admittedly at first I pegged him as a WUM but now I see the satire.

If he's not you, he's definitely Funsterdelux's dark alter ego.

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Love how people are saying how schools should contact trace the cases in them. Don't people realise that what constitutes a close co tact in a school environment seems to change every few days and also differs based on what each of lix health team thinks.

There is a reason why school gojng cases have been pulled from the weekend and will be officially traced. I'd imagine if schools were allowed do it then the amount of close contacts per case would be significantly higher than if were determined by public health.

The school my nephew goes to keeps comprehensive lists of children, their close contacts and everyone who passes through the school of a given day like the delivery people etc, they all have to sign in (granted using shared and sanitised pens, which struck me as neolithic... I bring my own).

I'm pretty sure most schools have this simple system of logging visits, but how are they supposed to get teenagers to think about everywhere they've been and everyone they've been in contact with?

An unparalleled task. I wonder if meat plants have it as difficult.

8k71ps

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Love how people are saying how schools should contact trace the cases in them. Don't people realise that what constitutes a close co tact in a school environment seems to change every few days and also differs based on what each of lix health team thinks.

There is a reason why school gojng cases have been pulled from the weekend and will be officially traced. I'd imagine if schools were allowed do it then the amount of close contacts per case would be significantly higher than if were determined by public health.

Not only that, but even if they were properly traced back in September with proper procedures there probably still wasn't enough contact tracers in the entire country to handle all of that. Sometimes I think our politicians and civil servants were born from the womb grey haired and balding , since anyone who's been in a school knows that especially young kids are constantly around each other no matter what, so the amount of contacts would essentially be most of the school with any given outbreak. Even in secondary schools they'd be out drinking etc. They really either close them permanently or provide muchbetter resources to contact tracers and online learning.

Hector Savage

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-21/spain-reports-highest-cumulative-number-of-coronavirus-cases-3229-infections-per-100000-inhabitants.html

The trajectory will go whatever way it will go, restrictions don't work, very strict mask wearing in Spain since May, now bars and restaurants closed - and cases continue to rise, in fact it looked like it was slowing down .... but no, the spikes have returned.



This is madness.



either way when all this is over (in about 400 years) it will be a data analysts dream!

seamus

j@utis wrote: »

I want to remind you that schools are somewhat childcare facilities for many parents that have no other option but to go to work [essential workers]. Are you free to mind my children if that happens? For free of course, because we pay upfront for afterschool care and that's non-refundable, and we're not paying twice for the same thing.
I hate them for closing the gyms too, btw.

If schools close, everything closes.
Simple fact of the matter.

If schools and other childcare are closed, but people still have to go to work, then parents will have no other choice except to draft in grandparents and other households to take on childcare while they work.

This will result in much greater spread of the virus, especially among the more vulnerable cohort (grandparents).

If schools are closed, provision needs to be made which allows a large portion of the workforce (up to 400,000 people) take a paid leave of absence from work while they're closed. The was a certain amount of "let's just do this" applied in the first lockdown, but it didn't really work. Children didn't get educated, they spent all day watching screens. Parents didn't get any work done.

growleaves

I will also ask customers to provide a photo ID showing that they reside within the 5km limit, if they do not I will ask managers not to serve them.

There are no photo IDs which show that someone resides with a 5km limit.

Your Passport doesn't say "4km from Rathkeale"

Plumbthedepths

s1ippy wrote: »

If he's not you, he's definitely Funsterdelux's dark alter ego.


The school my nephew goes to keeps comprehensive lists of children, their close contacts and everyone who passes through the school of a given day like the delivery people etc, they all have to sign in (granted using shared and sanitised pens, which struck me as neolithic... I bring my own).

I'm pretty sure most schools have this simple system of logging visits, but how are they supposed to get teenagers to think about everywhere they've been and everyone they've been in contact with?

An unparalleled task. I wonder if meat plants have it as difficult.

Nope just one account and I definitely don't do satire. Ah yes Funster, intelligent observation dressed up in humour.

billybonkers

23,000 calls over last week contract tracing did.

That's is 137 calls every hour of every day.

I wonder how many people are on the tracing team? why did they not just hire 500 or so people to do it? The call went out months ago for people available on contract basis!!

If they had 500 doing it, it would be around 2 calls per day working 8 hours!!

Jinglejangle69

billybonkers wrote: »

23,000 calls a day last week contract tracing did.

That's is 137 calls every hour of every day.

I wonder how many people are on the tracing team? why did they not just hire 500 or so people to do it? The call went out months ago for people available on contract basis!!

If they had 500 doing it, it would be around 2 calls per day working 8 hours!!

Think they have 450.

billybonkers

growleaves wrote: »

There are no photo IDs which show that someone resides with a 5km limit.

Your Passport doesn't say "4km from Rathkeale"

Your drivers license has your address on it. Can't think of any others that do though

Boggles

seamus wrote: »

If schools and other childcare are closed, but people still have to go to work, then parents will have no other choice except to draft in grandparents and other households to take on childcare while they work.

All that is currently happening. Add to that multiple pickups by family, neighbors, friends, etc.

So you have to ask yourself the question.

Is a child that spends 6 hours a day with potentially 100s of contacts more of a risk to grandparents when they mind them or less of risk without those 100s of contacts?

We will park that nonsense that schools are Covid free zones, but once the child leaves the school yard they become a super vector that will kill granny.

billybonkers

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Think they have 450.

Well then that is beyond a joke.

2.43 calls per day over 8 working hours. How is that not sufficient.

Mind boggles

nthclare

I know this threads busy, but what's wrong with a single middle aged,young or elderly man or woman living alone, just getting into their car for a spin out to a headland and getting sea air, going fishing or foraging, a swim.

Especially people who are lonely and suffer from depression or have social anxiety.

Some people need their routine and this could save them from the tipping point, they're harming no one.

growleaves

billybonkers wrote: »

Your drivers license has your address on it. Can't think of any others that do though

What if you're staying somewhere else and haven't updated it though?

In any case a shop assistant isn't a Guard and people shouldn't go along with this request.

wirelessdude01

billybonkers wrote: »

23,000 calls a day last week contract tracing did.

That's is 137 calls every hour of every day.

I wonder how many people are on the tracing team? why did they not just hire 500 or so people to do it? The call went out months ago for people available on contract basis!!

If they had 500 doing it, it would be around 2 calls per day working 8 hours!!

It came out in the wash few weeks back that they were only offering short term zero hour contracts.No sick pay.

Should have been secure 6/12 month long.

Also I read somewhere that training takes between 4 and 6 weeks to complete. All this should have been comp,even during the summer when things were relatively quiet.

Drumpot

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Think they have 450.

Is contact tracing really that difficult a job to learn? There’s no way we could of trained up a lot more people in the last 6 months?

Bet if we were at war there would be no shortage of people to do jobs they’d never done in their lives and have absolutely no qualifications to do, they’d learn very quickly.

ixoy

How does a contact trace even work? They still need the names from the person who tested positive and the phone numbers from them (the team are unlikely to have access). So are they just ringing those people up? Do they ring up the workplace, if any, as well? Shops visited? And, previously, restaurants/pubs?

If someone doesn't have a phone number, say for a neighbour they were chatting to, is there anything done there?

seamus

billybonkers wrote: »

23,000 calls a day last week contract tracing did.

That's is 137 calls every hour of every day.

I wonder how many people are on the tracing team? why did they not just hire 500 or so people to do it? The call went out months ago for people available on contract basis!!

If they had 500 doing it, it would be around 2 calls per day working 8 hours!!

23,000 calls a day = 161,000 calls a week. 500 tracers working a 40 hour week = 20,000 working hours.

Which means that each tracer would need to make 8 calls an hour in order to keep up. Which is 7.5 minutes per call to make the call and to do all of the admin work that arises out of it. If they ring someone to get a list of their close contacts and that person has 30 names, then you're going to go way over your 7.5 minutes.

And that assumes that none of your contact tracers are out sick, or on annual leave, etc.

We had 1,500 army personnell drafted in to do it in April, I wonder why the same hasn't happened again.

Boggles

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

It came out in the wash few weeks back that they were only offering short term zero hour contracts.No sick pay.

Should have been secure 6/12 month long.

Also I read somewhere that training takes between 4 and 6 weeks to complete. All this should have been comp,even during the summer when things were relatively quiet.

We do it a little differently here.

the HSE is using Revenue Commissioners officials in Limerick and Dublin, along with the Army band, to make calls to newly confirmed cases of Covid-19 to trace their contacts

Musicians and accountants.