Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

froog

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Anyone noticed that cases in 5-14year olds are finally rising as a proportion of all cases, and are now almost back to pre-school reopening levels. This of course came in the couple of weeks after cases spiked in their parents age groups. Who got it from whom?

We get it, you want the schools open at all costs. Do you really need to post the same thing several times every single day about it?

CoronaBlocker

is_that_so wrote: »

Contact tracing is breaking down because of the sheer numbers of cases and their respective contacts.

You mean the second wave that nobody has been talking about for 6 months?

seamus

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

It came out in the wash few weeks back that they were only offering short term zero hour contracts.No sick pay.

Should have been secure 6/12 month long.

Also I read somewhere that training takes between 4 and 6 weeks to complete. All this should have been comp,even during the summer when things were relatively quiet.

Drumpot wrote: »

Is contact tracing really that difficult a job to learn? There’s no way we could of trained up a lot more people in the last 6 months?

Bet if we were at war there would be no shortage of people to do jobs they’d never done in their lives and have absolutely no qualifications to do, they’d learn very quickly.

It's very obvious at this stage that HSE management made a bet that we were already through the worst of it and that fortifying our resources would be a waste because we would never see the likes of it again.

The HSE are far and away the most incompetent group in the entire public sector. County Council planning departments look like well-oiled machines in comparison.

8k71ps

seamus wrote: »

If schools close, everything closes.
Simple fact of the matter.

If schools and other childcare are closed, but people still have to go to work, then parents will have no other choice except to draft in grandparents and other households to take on childcare while they work.

This will result in much greater spread of the virus, especially among the more vulnerable cohort (grandparents).

The kid wouldn't be a significant factor if the schools weren't open, there are more grandparents with contact with their covid-positive school age grandchildren currently than there would be if the schools were closed, considering a large portion of people currently. However for the most part there can be a hell of a lot more done about schools if they at least allowed even the 4th-6th years to be at home than what they're doing now.

Drumpot

Boggles wrote: »

We do it a little differently here.



Musicians and accountants.

So anybody can be a contact tracer? Thousands of people on PUP and none of them can even ask to do the job if they want? (I’m sure many would put their name forward and volunteer) While they are stuck at home doing nothing ?

So can anybody come up with a devils advocate defence of why there isn’t more infrastructure in place for the contact tracing?

billybonkers

seamus wrote: »

23,000 calls a day = 161,000 calls a week. 500 tracers working a 40 hour week = 20,000 working hours.

Which means that each tracer would need to make 8 calls an hour in order to keep up. Which is 7.5 minutes per call to make the call and to do all of the admin work that arises out of it. If they ring someone to get a list of their close contacts and that person has 30 names, then you're going to go way over your 7.5 minutes.

And that assumes that none of your contact tracers are out sick, or on annual leave, etc.

We had 1,500 army personnell drafted in to do it in April, I wonder why the same hasn't happened again.

Its was over the week that was a typo

Boggles

Drumpot wrote: »

So anybody can be a contact tracer? Thousands of people on PUP and none of them can even ask to do the job if they want? (I’m sure many would put their name forward and volunteer) While they are stuck at home doing nothing ?

So can anybody come up with a devils advocate defence of why there isn’t more infrastructure in place for the contact tracing?

Complete and utter ineptitude?

It's a type of defence.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

We do it a little differently here.



Musicians and accountants.

Anyone with a phone who can use excel should be sufficient

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Anyone with a phone who can use excel should be sufficient

You don't even need that anymore.

Everyone is a contact tracer now.

Woohoo!

Except for the schools, under no circumstances will they be allowed self trace and inform anyone.

froog

froog wrote: »

We get it, you want the schools open at all costs. Do you really need to post the same thing several times every single day about it?

Its not something I have previously posted.

sonofenoch

nthclare wrote: »

I know this threads busy, but what's wrong with a single middle aged,young or elderly man or woman living alone, just getting into their car for a spin out to a headland and getting sea air, going fishing or foraging, a swim.

Especially people who are lonely and suffer from depression or have social anxiety.

Some people need their routine and this could save them from the tipping point, they're harming no one.

Last time was stopped on the motorbike a few times .....once told to turn round and go back, another said 'you're not allowed out for a spin'

wirelessdude01

Boggles wrote: »

You don't even need that anymore.

Everyone is a contact tracer now.

Woohoo!

Except for the schools, under no circumstances will they be allowed self trace and inform anyone.

We all know why!!

Does this mean that the airports will be closed?

AlphaDelta1

Im sorry but there is zero excuse for the arse to fall out of the track and trace system, literally none. We have hundreds of thousands of people getting 350 a week for sitting around watching TV or walking their dog out of which hundreds could have been trained up. The sheer and utter incompetence of it all is frightening.

Anyone with even a fraction of intelligence knew a surge was extremely likely and yet they did nothing.

ixoy

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Im sorry but there is zero excuse for the arse to fall out of the track and trace system, literally none. We have hundreds of thousands of people getting 350 a week for sitting around watching TV or walking their dog out of which hundreds could have been trained up. The sheer and utter incompetence of it all is frightening.

Not to mention there's a number of state employees sitting around as they're public facing so currently not working. They can be re-deployed.

CIARAN_BOYLE

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

You mean the second wave that nobody has been talking about for 6 months?

It depends.

If the hse and Nphet planned on government accepting recommendations ths leave wouldn't be as bad as it is.

What's the chicken and the egg. Theres x contact traces because Nphet planned on an earlier level 5. This meant we wouldn't need more than x. Or Nphet recommended level 5 because there was x contact traces and the contact tracing teams needed to be protected from failure.

If this is the case the failure is in not setting case loads to move to higher levels earlier. Even though approximate ones

billybonkers

Right so if its 3,285 calls per day (23,000 / 7 days)

That is 7.3 calls for each of the 450 staff per day then.

How long does a contract tracing call take, can anyone who was contacted comment?

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Does this mean that the airports will be closed?

No, you’ll still be able to travel to the airport or the ports (as long as you’ve a ticket to show)

silverharp

4 infants died because of travel restrictions in Australia

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1318834012945829888

Kimbot

ixoy wrote: »

Not to mention there's a number of state employees sitting around as they're public facing so currently not working. They can be re-deployed.

What state employees are sitting around not working at the moment?

Brianmwalker

Softshoulder wrote: »

This is barely a lockdown. So many businesses are going to be open.

You'd have a shorter list of businesses closing than opening:

- Pubs
- Restaurants
- Barbers
- Clothes shops
- Retailers
- Gyms

Phone shops staying open, car dealers staying open, electrical outlets staying open, opticians staying open, banks staying open, landrettes and drycleaners staying open.

Agreed, there's an exemption for everyone in the audience. . Typical irish approach, half ass it! Should be no lock down imo but it there is I'd prefer a proper house arrest style for 2 to 3 weeks.

xabi

Enter name here wrote: »

I run a retail chain and have had this argument all day long with the owners. If you can show me where is says you can leave the 5 kms radius to go shopping for non essential items show me. As i said to the owners today, against my judgment which was to close the shops down across the country they want to keep them open and offer click and collect. I said fine I will inform the managers to keep skeleton staff on and at all branches and offer click and collect. I will also ask customers to provide a photo ID showing that they reside within the 5km limit, if they do not I will ask managers not to serve them.

What shop is this? So I can avoid in the future.

ixoy

Kimbot wrote: »

What state employees are sitting around not working at the moment?

Librarians I know of for one - haven't been re-deployed. Those in public museums perhaps too.

joe40

nthclare wrote: »

I know this threads busy, but what's wrong with a single middle aged,young or elderly man or woman living alone, just getting into their car for a spin out to a headland and getting sea air, going fishing or foraging, a swim.

Especially people who are lonely and suffer from depression or have social anxiety.

Some people need their routine and this could save them from the tipping point, they're harming no one.

Yeah on balance I agree with that post. I'm not totally anti restrictions but I think staying within your county would be more sensible.
Im off work this week so yesterday I went for a walk in the Donegal hills. Literally no one around for miles. Tomorrow I'll be restricted to a busy town parks with loads of people around.
At this time of year you won't get the big crowds at beaches so travel within county should be safe.

Non solum non ambulabit

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

People will die regardless of ICU capacity.

13 announced yesterday with ICU capacity still available.

Only 5% of our deaths so far have come from ICU. 95% died without ever entering ICU.

CoronaBlocker

Drumpot wrote: »

So anybody can be a contact tracer? Thousands of people on PUP and none of them can even ask to do the job if they want? (I’m sure many would put their name forward and volunteer) While they are stuck at home doing nothing ?

So can anybody come up with a devils advocate defence of why there isn’t more infrastructure in place for the contact tracing?

I applied and got no response.
In fairness to the government and the HSE though, they spent so much time worrying about the inevitable second wave that they completely forgot to plan for the rise in cases that has been developing since all the way back in July.

lolokeogh

billybonkers wrote: »

Right so if its 3,285 calls per day (23,000 / 7 days)

That is 7.3 calls for each of the 450 staff per day then.

How long does a contract tracing call take, can anyone who was contacted comment?

mine was 5 mins,took the numbers if i had them from people i was in contact with,they made contact with all but one...the rest in the house would have spent 20 mins each on average..my daughter was one day in to secondry school,i phoned the school and told them she was positive,that was a thursday,they asked to sort of keep it hush hush and they would work on it and see what happens come monday,then nothing,no one that was with my daughter in school was contacted,Was the same with my son,hes in last year of secondry school,i also informed his school,and that was about it,nothing realy..but anyway i would say from my experiance on average here 20 mins a call..

Non solum non ambulabit

silverharp wrote: »

4 infants died because of travel restrictions in Australia

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1318834012945829888

Unbelievable. Sickening how Covid has destroyed our perspective on life. Prepared to let infants die due to our obsession with Covid case numbers.

AlphaDelta1

Softshoulder wrote: »

This is barely a lockdown. So many businesses are going to be open.

You'd have a shorter list of businesses closing than opening:

- Pubs
- Restaurants
- Barbers
- Clothes shops
- Retailers
- Gyms

Phone shops staying open, car dealers staying open, electrical outlets staying open, opticians staying open, banks staying open, landrettes and drycleaners staying open.

It's a lockdown in name only. Like i said yesterday they'll be back with 2 weeks looking for additional measures.

Duke of Url

So how do I explain this to the guards when im stopped to visit my 83 year old mam lives alone

Do I just tell them?

Who can form a support bubble in Ireland?

Under Level 5, people who have certain living situations can form a bubble with one other household of any size.

You can form a support bubble if: live alone with children under the age of 18, you live alone, you share parenting or custody arrangements, you live with an adult you provide care for, or you live by yourself and have a carer or carers who support you.

Support bubbles can only be formed with one other household that is not already part of a support bubble.

It is advised that people should choose another household in their locality, but it can be outside the five kilometre restriction under Level 5.

Wombatman

What is the Nphet advice around keeping schools open?

CoronaBlocker

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Im sorry but there is zero excuse for the arse to fall out of the track and trace system, literally none. We have hundreds of thousands of people getting 350 a week for sitting around watching TV or walking their dog out of which hundreds could have been trained up. The sheer and utter incompetence of it all is frightening.

Anyone with even a fraction of intelligence knew a surge was extremely likely and yet they did nothing.

I used to contract for a very large political party and you would be amazed to know that the European elections (which happen exactly 5 years) still managed to surprise them each time they came around. Muppets. Absolute muppets.

seamus

billybonkers wrote: »

Right so if its 3,285 calls per day (23,000 / 7 days)

That is 7.3 calls for each of the 450 staff per day then.

How long does a contract tracing call take, can anyone who was contacted comment?

I'm curious now where you got the 23,000 number. If it's Paul Reid, then the number is probably wrong

You can actually work this out.

If "Last week" was the 12th to the 18th, then there were 8,125 new cases.

Each new case gets two calls - one to notify and the second to collect their close contacts. That's 16,250 calls.

The average number of close contacts is about 4.5. Each gets one phone call. That's 73,125 calls. Which makes for a grand total of 89,375 calls in 7 days.

Now, it'll be lower than that; some positive cases will come from hospitals and will be unconscious or otherwise unable to take calls. But it's a good starting point.

The HSE actually contacted just shy of 5,000 new cases last week. So let's use that as our metric; roughly 5/8ths of new cases need to be contacted. The other 3/8ths do not.

That brings us down to a total of 55,860 calls for last week.

Last week the tracers (according to their own data) made 28,720 calls.

So no matter which way you swing it, there is a shortfall.

If you have 450 tracers, we'll assume 5% are unavailable in any given week, and they realistically have 7 hours per day per tracer (time to set up, toilet breaks, etc etc). Gives 14,960 man-hours. So a contact tracer can make, on average, about two calls an hour. Which makes sense when you consider what it is that they're doing.

So we need at least 1,500 contact tracers. With surge capacity for 30% more.

Which, funnily enough, is exactly the 30 tracers per 100,000 that New York identified as the minimum, back in May.

Funsterdelux

ixoy wrote: »

Librarians I know of for one - haven't been re-deployed. Those in public museums perhaps too.

Librarians, Assemble!



i never watched the show btw, also one of them is a former ER doctor

Hooter23

Imagine if we started reporting cases of flu on the news evey year...we would have millions of cases..since this so called virus is not much worse than the flu...it just shows you what a joke this whole thing is

Happydays2020

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But still, even from those contacts tested, the proportion of positive tests is lower than elsewhere. And if the net is too narrow, that are only getting the most likely to have been exposed

There was reports a few weeks back of teachers getting contact tracing notifications on their phones as being close contacts but being told to ignore that - HSE would decide who to contact.

seamus

Duke of Url wrote: »

So how do I explain this to the guards when im stopped to visit my 83 year old mam lives alone

Do I just tell them?

Yes.

The 5km limit includes an exemption:

for vital family reasons, such as providing care to children, elderly or vulnerable people, and in particular for those who live alone, as part of an extended household but excluding social family visits

"My elderly mother needs me to do her shopping and take out her bins".

suicide_circus

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Only 5% of our deaths so far have come from ICU. 95% died without ever entering ICU.

And what % of that 95% have had an autopsy/inquest to determine if covid-19 was the main or contributory cause of death or if it it was non contributory? Genuine question, not having a go!

Funsterdelux

Hooter23 wrote: »

Imagine if we started reporting cases of flu on the news evey year...we would have millions of cases..since this so called virus is not much worse than the flu...it just shows you what a joke this whole thing is

We should also name and shame those infected with STD's

Doctor Jimbob

Hooter23 wrote: »

Imagine if we started reporting cases of flu on the news evey year...we would have millions of cases..since this so called virus is not much worse than the flu...it just shows you what a joke this whole thing is

So called? I'm fairly sure it's actually a virus.

wirelessdude01

Wombatman wrote: »

What is the Nphet advice around keeping schools open?

Message is that keeping schools open is a core priority.

Wombatman

Wombatman wrote: »

What is the Nphet advice around keeping schools open?

OK. Found it.

The National Public Health Emergency Team has reviewed the national experience of school reopening to date, including the epidemiological data and information gathered through case and outbreak management. Having considered this evidence, NPHET has recommended that schools remain open during Level 5 restrictions, even in the current trajectory of the disease.

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/09ea9-statement-from-minister-for-education-norma-foley-on-sustaining-the-safe-operation-of-schools-during-level-5-measures/

Hector Savage

ixoy wrote: »

Not to mention there's a number of state employees sitting around as they're public facing so currently not working. They can be re-deployed.

You think those civil service wasters are gonna do ANYTHING that isn't explicitly on their job description ???

You're talking about people sitting on their arse at home on full pay not working from home as "we don't have internet" ....

CoronaBlocker

So, using figures as supplied here...
23,000 calls last week. Divided amongst 450 contact tracers. That's 51.1 calls each and divided by 40 working hours equals 1.2 calls an hour.
Even allowing for a bit of box-ticking and form-filling, that's a glacially slow pace of work. A target so easy to hit it's practically unmissable.

Any civil/public servant that I have ever had to deal with always seemed to be operating in amble mode. You want to bloody shake them or splash water into their face. And people wonder where inefficiencies and wastage comes from.

AlphaDelta1

Hooter23 wrote: »

Imagine if we started reporting cases of flu on the news evey year...we would have millions of cases..since this so called virus is not much worse than the flu...it just shows you what a joke this whole thing is

No it's not a so called virus, it's an actual virus.

Duke of Url

Hooter23 wrote: »

Imagine if we started reporting cases of flu on the news evey year...we would have millions of cases..since this so called virus is not much worse than the flu...it just shows you what a joke this whole thing is

Are you saying what happened in Bergamo and Madrid was a Joke and caused by nothing but the flu?

CoronaBlocker

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It depends.

If the hse and Nphet planned on government accepting recommendations ths leave wouldn't be as bad as it is.

What's the chicken and the egg. Theres x contact traces because Nphet planned on an earlier level 5. This meant we wouldn't need more than x. Or Nphet recommended level 5 because there was x contact traces and the contact tracing teams needed to be protected from failure.

If this is the case the failure is in not setting case loads to move to higher levels earlier. Even though approximate ones

That's still gross mis-management though. It's essentially the "it's not my job" approach from people with grand educations, at the top of their fields and getting paid buckets of money for it.

ACitizenErased

Contact tracing should have been EXPANDED when cases were low, not reduced. Instead of assigning two tracers per case/cluster, assign 3-4 and really track it down. But nah, why would we bother doing that?

seamus

Hector Savage wrote: »

You think those civil service wasters are gonna do ANYTHING that isn't explicitly on their job description ???

To be fair, they're employees like any other. They're not army personnel who can just be "redeployed" to do whatever job is needed.

If your employer turned around and said, "We're going on a blitz and so rather than spending the next six weeks doing your regular job, we're going to stick you on the phones ringing customers for 8 hours a day"

"What if I refuse?"

"There's pretty much nothing we can do about it"

fly_agaric

Duke of Url wrote: »

Are you saying what happened in Bergamo and Madrid was a Joke and caused by nothing but the flu?

It has been proven (by experts publishing crowd-sourced research on social media) that they were all Crisis Actors.