Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

mohawk

Softshoulder wrote: »

And only Europe and USA do proper testing eh? The baddies Russia and China never do anything safely?

Somehow Pfizer were planning on having their vaccine ready before the end of the year. So if you would, I'd be really interested to know how a couple of months extra makes all the difference??

Some regulatory bodies set higher standards than others. I wouldn’t say it’s just Europe and USA but Brazil and Japan have reputations for high standards.
The fact is the Russian and Chinese vaccines have not been put forward their vaccines for approval in Europe or USA. Maybe they don’t feel they have the production capacity or maybe they don’t feel their results will satisfy the EMA or maybe it’s another reason.
People can talk all they like about those vaccines but it doesn’t look likely they will be rolled out to EU.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Contact tracing has utterly collapsed.

Swabs today will be a guesstimate of how much disease there is out there.

Best test of this will be if positive rates rise further.

CruelSummer

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lung-cancer-deaths-during-pandemic-may-have-been-misdiagnosed-as-covid-12110063

Good article, what are the excess deaths going to be from lockdowns and missing other vital referrals for healthcare?

10000maniacs

E36Ross wrote: »

Stopped at a checkpoint this morning and asked if I was out working.......


I drive a bus.

Have you ever seen the Clint Eastwood movie The Gauntlet?

Cluedo Monopoly

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1318874957594710018

Limpy

Limpy wrote: »

Sisters husband tested positive monday. Rest of family told to wait for test, they have no symptoms but nobody has called to test them yet.

You can test too soon after exposure. When did he first feel ill?

Softshoulder

Softshoulder wrote: »

And only Europe and USA do proper testing eh? The baddies Russia and China never do anything safely?

Somehow Pfizer were planning on having their vaccine ready before the end of the year. So if you would, I'd be really interested to know how a couple of months extra makes all the difference??

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinical_trial

Let me know if there is anything you don't understand in this:)

Necro

Boggles wrote: »

Contact tracing has utterly collapsed.

Swabs today will be a guesstimate of how much disease there is out there.

Typical HSE, half arsing the recruitment.

Contact Tracing could easily be done on WFH basis with a little bit of training, but they probably employed 15 managers to manage the small amount of tracers they actually did hire.

Yes there is sensitive data involved but anybody, literally anybody could do contact tracing with a week or two on the job training.

Eod100

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1318874957594710018

Donnelly claiming not to know either. Say there's some special advisors screaming down the phone at their equivalent in HSE.

Qiaonasen

Anyone who trusts anything coming out of China needs a long and thorough head examination. Not saying they don't have a vaccine. Just saying they have had many vaccine scandals before. Always cut corners.

mfceiling

Can anyone advise me on this?

I'm self employed and I need to get all my paperwork and laptop to my accountant tomorrow night.

Would I be ok to travel 30kms to drop off everything to his house so he can complete my end of year returns?

Thanks.

wirelessdude01

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1318874957594710018

I had wondered who had given the okay for this to happen. Paul Reid?

Igotadose

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

I had wondered who had given the okay for this to happen. Paul Reid?

Well, it's the HSE. Bound to screw things up. The usual - 'high demand and we can't cope.' Yes, 3000 cases or whatever it is. 8 months into this and they drop the ball. Typical.

caveat emptor

mfceiling wrote: »

Can anyone advise me on this?

I'm self employed and I need to get all my paperwork and laptop to my accountant tomorrow night.

Would I be ok to travel 30kms to drop off everything to his house so he can complete my end of year returns?

Thanks.

Yep carry on in my book of morals.

mcburns07

mfceiling wrote: »

Can anyone advise me on this?

I'm self employed and I need to get all my paperwork and laptop to my accountant tomorrow night.

Would I be ok to travel 30kms to drop off everything to his house so he can complete my end of year returns?

Thanks.

Just go and do what you need to do, no Garda is going to give you grief for having a legitimate reason for travelling.

Can't believe we're back to this again. The 5km limit should be a guideline rather than a garda checkpoint thing. Agree with legislation to fine people who are clearly taking the piss though.

s1ippy

mfceiling wrote: »

Can anyone advise me on this?

I'm self employed and I need to get all my paperwork and laptop to my accountant tomorrow night.

Would I be ok to travel 30kms to drop off everything to his house so he can complete my end of year returns?

Thanks.

If you can demonstrate that you're doing essential work (tax returns are essential), I'd say that would be fine.

Stop off at Michael Collins' grave on your way back just to be safe though.

Eod100

Necro wrote: »

Typical HSE, half arsing the recruitment.

Contact Tracing could easily be done on WFH basis with a little bit of training, but they probably employed 15 managers to manage the small amount of tracers they actually did hire.

Yes there is sensitive data involved but anybody, literally anybody could do contact tracing with a week or two on the job training.

Recruitment was outsourced to CPL but guess they only take direction from HSE. CPL had sent out zero contracts in error. When so many are out of work can't be for lack of people interested.

Necro

mfceiling wrote: »

Can anyone advise me on this?

I'm self employed and I need to get all my paperwork and laptop to my accountant tomorrow night.

Would I be ok to travel 30kms to drop off everything to his house so he can complete my end of year returns?

Thanks.

Seems like it would be a good reason personally.

I can't say for definite but I also cannot see the Gardai having an issue with that journey, it is a necessary one.

CruelSummer

CruelSummer wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lung-cancer-deaths-during-pandemic-may-have-been-misdiagnosed-as-covid-12110063

Good article, what are the excess deaths going to be from lockdowns and missing other vital referrals for healthcare?

Lung cancer diagnosis (or missed diagnosis) in the last six months won't have effected excess mortality yet. What's your point? Maybe I am misunderstanding you.

Busi_Girl08

mfceiling wrote: »

Can anyone advise me on this?

I'm self employed and I need to get all my paperwork and laptop to my accountant tomorrow night.

Would I be ok to travel 30kms to drop off everything to his house so he can complete my end of year returns?

Thanks.

Have an email or some kind of note on your phone from your accountant to demonstrate it's essential to your business and I'd say you'll be grand.

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/olivercallan/status/1318890783089504256?s=20

Cluedo Monopoly

Necro wrote: »

Typical HSE, half arsing the recruitment.

Contact Tracing could easily be done on WFH basis with a little bit of training, but they probably employed 15 managers to manage the small amount of tracers they actually did hire.

Yes there is sensitive data involved but anybody, literally anybody could do contact tracing with a week or two on the job training.

Recruitment?? There are an army of admins in the HSE doing very very little that could help with contact tracing.

Sheepdish1

Necro wrote: »

Typical HSE, half arsing the recruitment.

Contact Tracing could easily be done on WFH basis with a little bit of training, but they probably employed 15 managers to manage the small amount of tracers they actually did hire.

Yes there is sensitive data involved but anybody, literally anybody could do contact tracing with a week or two on the job training.

I looked up contact tracing jobs and the vacancies I saw advertised seemed to be only recruiting people from a public health background or healthcare. This surprised me as I also thought it could be the type of job possible to do it from home after initial training. Maybe there is a need for people to have this level of knowledge about healthcare but I wouldn’t have thought so until last night. I thought it would be more an administrative job and data recording.

pauldry

Still hopeful that by mid to late November these 1,000 cases a day will be behind us. I dont think the virus cares much about mini lockdowns but we can help flatten the curve with our actions.

Some people think we will have thousands of cases a day by December. I cant see it myself so hope they are wrong and not me.

Necro

Sheepdish1 wrote: »

I looked up contact tracing jobs and the vacancies I saw advertised seemed to be only recruiting people from a public health background or healthcare. This surprised me as I also thought it could be the type of job possible to do it from home after initial training. Maybe there is a need for people to have this level of knowledge about healthcare but I wouldn’t have thought so until last night. I thought it would be more an administrative job and data recording.

It is. They were just being particular imo.

From the calls I got from contact tracers, the first was a survey and the second was to gather my contacts and tell me that I definitely didn't infect anyone 48hrs before I first had symptoms... :pac:

The main part of the job would be training on data protection and GDPR.

I work in a similar sort of section in social welfare (though we take incoming calls and emails) and honestly, it's the exact same job, like you said - admin and data recording.

Cluedo Monopoly

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

I have always thought that the HSE senior management were always way too focused on doing status reports than doing any important internal work.
Did we need Paul Reid and Co doing daily number updates and Q&A with the media during the summer? Wouldn't a lot of that time have been better spent planning for the future, increasing capacity, improving track&trace etc.

If the CEO or any senior management of any organisation spent half their day collecting, summarising and reporting daily status data, you would know the organisation was in big trouble.

All senior management in an organisation want during a crisis in is frequent status reports. Without them they might need to face the fact about how little they actually know the operation of their organisation, and that their role essentially adds little to no operational value

caveat emptor

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://twitter.com/olivercallan/status/1318890783089504256?s=20

Gonna be honest (again).

I don't like you for minimising reasons. :eek:

That really made me laugh.] Thank you.

Good man/ woman.

iamwhoiam

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40068212.html


Couldn’t have put it better myself
Anger is where my emotions are stuck too now

pc7

mfceiling wrote: »

Can anyone advise me on this?

I'm self employed and I need to get all my paperwork and laptop to my accountant tomorrow night.

Would I be ok to travel 30kms to drop off everything to his house so he can complete my end of year returns?

Thanks.

of course you will be fine, but the deadline for returns has been extended to December according to our accountant. Maybe check with yours.

ACitizenErased

caveat emptor wrote: »

Gonna be honest (again).

I don't like you for minimising reasons. :eek:

That really made me laugh.] Thank you.

Good man/ woman.

I am shocked that you don't like me

Polar101

Boggles wrote: »

Contact tracing has utterly collapsed.

Swabs today will be a guesstimate of how much disease there is out there.

While it's a shambles, I think that's overplaying the situation a bit. They haven't stopped to do contact tracing, they are still doing as much as they can - even if it means not everyone will be traced. Some of the ones who aren't contacted will be able to inform their contacts. Non-traced contacts who are positive will still be contacting their GPs if they display symptoms. And testing capacity seems to have increased from the previous 100k a week to something like 120k a week.

So a lot of the cases are still being detected.

AlphaDelta1

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

The Russians are already successfully using a vaccine with good results. They are actually sending out a second vaccine shortly also. Not sexy enough for western media though.

I think that this is a realistic expectation setting piece on how a vaccine would work and how it would not be a magic wand to bring us back to the old normal

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

Softshoulder

mohawk wrote: »

Some regulatory bodies set higher standards than others. I wouldn’t say it’s just Europe and USA but Brazil and Japan have reputations for high standards.
The fact is the Russian and Chinese vaccines have not been put forward their vaccines for approval in Europe or USA. Maybe they don’t feel they have the production capacity or maybe they don’t feel their results will satisfy the EMA or maybe it’s another reason.
People can talk all they like about those vaccines but it doesn’t look likely they will be rolled out to EU.

Brazil have said Chinas vaccine is safe

manniot2

eagle eye wrote: »

Do you want the hospitals to get overrun?
If you want to compare our lockdown the other countries then go find one with a health service as bad as ours and see how that works out for you.

You missed my point, which was about BALANCE. We are now engaged in destroying society and our economy leading to misery and deprivation. The aim of this is to get to 100 cases a day which would basically mean nobody is in hospital with COVID (as per the later summer months). There is therefore no balance in this logic, especially when you consider that (as seen in the Southern Hemisphere) there is likely to be little or no flu around this year.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Best test of this will be if positive rates rise further.

Why?

We are doing a pretty standard amount of testing per week, 100k roughly.

The bulk of that is serial testing. The positivity rate from GP referrals is far more than the 7 odd percent. The bulk of instances of the disease is now in the community.

If contacts of confirmed cases are not being tracked you don't get more confirmed cases you get less and so on.

The headline figures on testing are no longer an accurate representation of the level of disease out there.

When we were adequately testing and tracing we were finding 7/8 cases out of 10.

Wouldn't be a stretch to say that has slipped significantly, we are are probably missing a case for every case we pick up.

Given the situation on tracing is deteriorating further that number is not going to improve for the forseeable.

cnocbui

Softshoulder wrote: »

Brazil have said Chinas vaccine is safe

There is a reason Chinese consumers get into fights while emptying baby formula and vitamin supplements from Australian supermarket shelves, the minute they are re-stocked.

marno21

Deleted User wrote: »

I think that this is a realistic expectation setting piece on how a vaccine would work and how it would not be a magic wand to bring us back to the old normal

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

Perhaps it might be time for this gentleman to take a walk down to the Treasury and take a look at the planned national accounts for 2020 & 2021.

Ireland is borrowing in excess of €20bn in 2021. 2021 will be the last year of such an endeavour. It cannot continue. Should there be no vaccine for us, we will have to start massive cutbacks including to the advanced healthcare that's keeping much of the population who are vulnerable to Covid-19 alive. There is a very good reason why mortality rates in slums in Asia and in large areas of Africa are so low; there is no quality healthcare to treat their primary underlying conditions and they have low life expectancy. The difference between Ireland and those countries is first world healthcare funded by a strong, advanced economy.

If there is no vaccine in 2021, or the usual academic waffle in that article comes to pass, we will have 2 options:

1. Continue locking ourselves in our houses and borrowing into economic collapse in which healthcare provision goes out the window anyway
2. Find another route out of this mess, whatever you're having yourself that doesn't involve economic shutdowns.

niallo27

eagle eye wrote: »

Do you want the hospitals to get overrun?
If you want to compare our lockdown the other countries then go find one with a health service as bad as ours and see how that works out for you.

OK Sweden.

ACitizenErased

Boggles wrote: »

Why?

We are doing a pretty standard amount of testing per week, 100k roughly.

The bulk of that is serial testing. The positivity rate from GP referrals is far more than the 7 odd percent. The bulk of instances of the disease is now in the community.

If contacts of confirmed cases are not being tracked you don't get more confirmed cases you get less and so on.

The headline figures on testing are no longer an accurate representation of the level of disease out there.

When we were adequately testing and tracing we were finding 7/8 cases out of 10.

Wouldn't be a stretch to say that has slipped significantly, we are are probably missing a case for every case we pick up.

Given the situation on tracing is deteriorating further that number is not going to improve for the forseeable.

Of 100k tests a week less than 20% is serial testing. 65% is community swabs and the rest is hospitals.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-contact-tracing-update-15-october-2020.pdf

tayto lover

Still no word on whether golf clubs will be forced to close or not.
GUI still unsure by all accounts.

Boggles

Polar101 wrote: »

While it's a shambles, I think that's overplaying the situation a bit. They haven't stopped to do contact tracing, they are still doing as much as they can - even if it means not everyone will be traced. Some of the ones who aren't contacted will be able to inform their contacts. Non-traced contacts who are positive will still be contacting their GPs if they display symptoms. And testing capacity seems to have increased from the previous 100k a week to something like 120k a week.

So a lot of the cases are still being detected.

Contact tracing collapsed 3 weeks ago.

The term used by public health was "threw in the towel". This didn't happen yesterday.

The vast majority of testing are serial and have nothing to do with tracing.

In terms of wide spread community transmission we are half blind.

Boggles

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Of 100k tests a week less than 20% is serial testing. 65% is community swabs and the rest is hospitals.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-contact-tracing-update-15-october-2020.pdf

Community swabs means care homes, residential, care, etc. 35,000 odd.

The number you need is GP referrals and tracing referrals.

polesheep

Sheepdish1 wrote: »

I looked up contact tracing jobs and the vacancies I saw advertised seemed to be only recruiting people from a public health background or healthcare. This surprised me as I also thought it could be the type of job possible to do it from home after initial training. Maybe there is a need for people to have this level of knowledge about healthcare but I wouldn’t have thought so until last night. I thought it would be more an administrative job and data recording.

It smacks of the same thinking as when we had a list of 'special' people who could sign your passport form. Can't be letting the great unwashed near it.

wadacrack

pauldry wrote: »

Still hopeful that by mid to late November these 1,000 cases a day will be behind us. I dont think the virus cares much about mini lockdowns but we can help flatten the curve with our actions.

Some people think we will have thousands of cases a day by December. I cant see it myself so hope they are wrong and not me.

I think this lockdown will not be very effective. Not much will change from level 3 which appears to have done very little. A few obstacles compared to the first lockdown.

1. Schools open and some Colleges/courses 1 to 2 days a week on campus. Student accomodation. House parties.

2.International travel from countries with posivity rates at 20%.

3. Lack of public buy in

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Why?

We are doing a pretty standard amount of testing per week, 100k roughly.

The bulk of that is serial testing. The positivity rate from GP referrals is far more than the 7 odd percent. The bulk of instances of the disease is now in the community.

If contacts of confirmed cases are not being tracked you don't get more confirmed cases you get less and so on.

The headline figures on testing are no longer an accurate representation of the level of disease out there.

When we were adequately testing and tracing we were finding 7/8 cases out of 10.

Wouldn't be a stretch to say that has slipped significantly, we are are probably missing a case for every case we pick up.

Given the situation on tracing is deteriorating further that number is not going to improve for the forseeable.

If contacts of confirmed cases aren't being referred, only GP referrals of symptomatic cases will be tested, and as you say, these are far more likely to be positive, therefore the % of positive tests will go up.

Now the hope is that what essentially has been hit is a circuit breaker on the contract tracing system to allow a reset by clearing a cohort of cases, and allowing a somewhat capable system from now on. This should be aided by that fact that from tomorrow, most peoples contacts will be within their own home, freeing up resources to deal with the lower number of complex cases as a result of level 5

gibgodsman

Honestly it is becoming laughable how many businesses are using this click and collect excuse to stay open but have no way to implement it. Just seen a local jewelers use it to say they are open, they don't even have a website

polesheep

gibgodsman wrote: »

Honestly it is becoming laughable how many businesses are using this click and collect excuse to stay open but have no way to implement it. Just seen a local jewelers use it to say they are open, they don't even have a website

Did you really expect the same buy-in this time around?

ACitizenErased

Boggles wrote: »

Community swabs means care homes, residential, care, etc. 35,000 odd.

The number you need is GP referrals and tracing referrals.

No it doesn't.

18,107 taken as part of serial testing of staff in meat and food plants, residential care facilities and residents and staff in direct provision centres.

speckle

ok contact tracing having a break down is definetely not good,but one potential positive long term is de stigmatising having covid, a bit like cancer or TB used to be.

So for you who have to now do your own contact tracing...

Chin up you have the strenght and can do this.
If unwell ask for help.
Do not feel embrassed,this is an highly transmissiable virus.
And for you who will be on the receiving end of a phone call ,please dont shame the person, just act on the advice promptly.

gipi

tayto lover wrote: »

Still no word on whether golf clubs will be forced to close or not.
GUI still unsure by all accounts.

If members live over 5km from the club, then it's immaterial whether they open or not, since they couldn't travel? Wasn't that the case last time round?