Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Gael23

1000+ again today then

wadacrack

Can hopefully keep the numbers at 1,000-1,200 for the nest 10 days or so and maybe see a reduction then. I would still not remain optimistic this will happen for a number of reasons but hopefully will be wrong.Under 100 in 6 weeks seems extremely unlikely

Maxpfizer

Goldengirl wrote: »

Surely knickers and toys are not essential items ?
Would people not have the common sense to know that if the virus is spreading like it is, crowding into the city to buy stupid sxxx today and yesterday defeats the purpose?
The virus doesn't discriminate between level 3 and level 5 .
Maybe the message needs to be stronger for some thickos to understand .
"If you want to have some level of normality for Christmas , stay away from crowds now and cop on , or you might be missing some family member due to Covid this December !"
Too strong ? I don't think so ..
or Something like the ad for CO alarms, with the canary singing " You might just end up Brown Bread !"

Maybe people just don't care?

Plenty of people over indulge in cigarettes and booze etc knowing the health risks. We're not exactly well know for our healthy diets here either. Reckless driving etc etc etc.

The ad for CO alarms is there to raise awareness. People are still free to not care.

You go to a supermarket or convenience store tomorrow and I guarantee you'll be seeing people without masks on, coughing away, ignoring the hand sanitizer at the door, letting their kids run wild.

The last lockdown reduced the numbers despite a large amount of people not really bothering to obey the guidelines. So I'd imagine the same will happen here. Then we'll open up again and within 2 months we'll be creeping towards Lockdown: Round 3.

Goldengirl

Martina1991 wrote: »

FAR more complex than people realise. It isn't like a call centre. People making the calls are the point of contact the public have with the system so they think that's all there is to it.

There's managment, surveillance, clinical advice, data reporting, and supervising of all these tasks from nursing homes to universities to businesses to schools.

The areas of healthcare that aren't patient facing are often brushed aside, kept in the dark and neglected until they break.

There is a complete lack of knowledge and understanding from the public about these areas behind the scenes. It's very easy to comment and critisise on professions people know nothing about.

It is the fault of the HSE and the minister for health for sweeping these departments under the rug for years and not listening to their long standing concerns.

It has come back to bite them big time and we are all the ones who suffer.

Yes.
People need to direct their anger at those in charge in the HSE who are often so busy trying to manage on less than is needed, because they want to project an image of efficiency .
These are more often interested in building up their own reputation to get the next top job than making the service the best it can be .

What Username Guidelines

froog wrote: »

Especially considering contact tracing is a complete mess right now.

It’s still 16k tests though, if we see that number plummet we’ll know it’s the effects of tracing collapse as close contacts won’t be getting referred.

Always_Running

Boggles wrote: »

Could that number be any more creepy?

A great Iron Madien song though

ACitizenErased

Today is the first day since the 27th of September where the number of positives in the last 7 days has dropped from the day before.
Yesterday the 7 day numbers were 8146 - today it's 7980.
Furthermore, the positivity rate has dropped from 7.3% to 7.1% on the 7 day average.

Goldengirl

Boggles wrote: »

Could that number be any more creepy?

Be getting creepier coming up to Halloween..unfortunately 😲

OwenM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Today is the first day since the 27th of September where the number of positives in the last 7 days has dropped from the day before.
Yesterday the 7 day numbers were 8146 - today it's 7980.
Furthermore, the positivity rate has dropped from 7.3% to 7.1% on the 7 day average.

Martin and Holohan are going to look like Chicken Licken if this continues.

Goldengirl

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Now imagine what could have happened if we actually enforced level 3!

There was no appetite for enforcement however .
If the government had passed that legislation a month ago , giving the gardaí some chance to enforce level 3 restrictions , we may not be where we are now .

Benimar

The 'good' news is the friday/saturday backlog is cleared so announced cases should be lower than 1,100 today.

We are probably seeing the 14 day 'lag' from when the country went into a panic over the first Level 5 announcement, which may have 'influenced' behaviours for a few days!

The obvious bad news is that Track and Trace has fallen on its arse. I wonder what % on average of close contacts test positive?

iguana

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I have to concede that it's looking like Seamus was probably right, and we're seeing the effects of level 3 being applied nationally really eat into the growth of the virus.

It remains to be seen if the pattern holds and if it would have been a realistic alternative to going to level 5, but fair play to Seamus for the call.

Considering our contact tracing has fallen apart we can’t really make that assumption about a falling growth/positivity rate. Contact traced people have a higher positivity rate than those tested with symptoms. The fact that potentially thousands of people have been and are being missed right now means our positivity rate should have fallen due to all those missed contacts.

schmoo2k

Boggles wrote: »

Could that number be any more creepy?

Meh, its only 1% creepy!

fly_agaric

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Today is the first day since the 27th of September where the number of positives in the last 7 days has dropped from the day before.
Yesterday the 7 day numbers were 8146 - today it's 7980.
Furthermore, the positivity rate has dropped from 7.3% to 7.1% on the 7 day average.

I think (as per stories in the media) system has been overwhelmed, so figures will not reflect course of outbreak any longer.

If that is the case and there's no biases in terms of who is getting into system from the community (i.e. as a "close contact") for a test I think I might expect case numbers and positivity rates from testing system to stay constant for a while regardless of what is actually happening.

Would I be wrong about this?

The positivity rate & daily detected case numbers may go up again later on [if the level 5 fails & the outbreak grows further].

Boggles

Widdensushi wrote: »

I knew you would find something negative about the numbers but I wasn't expecting that, fair play

Sorry there is a positive?

Yeah, 1100+ more infected people all now ringing their friends and family telling them they need to get tested all though some wouldn't be classified as close contacts.

Drive down the postivity rate!!!

https://twitter.com/amymorgangp/status/1318862450016518145

bennyl10

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I have to concede that it's looking like Seamus was probably right, and we're seeing the effects of level 3 being applied nationally really eat into the growth of the virus.

It remains to be seen if the pattern holds and if it would have been a realistic alternative to going to level 5, but fair play to Seamus for the call.

this is an increase on yesterday, we also know contact tracing is a nightmare, so we are missing cases..

On just numbers, sure positive, on actual facts, this isn't great

D.Q

is there anything to be said for another leaflet?

Boggles

D.Q wrote: »

is there anything to be said for another leaflet?

The new one would be the size of a phone book.

Goldengirl

Kimbot wrote: »

Ah you never know, some of these people mass buying knickers might have been wearing the same pear since the first lock down.

And come on, toys at this time of year are kinda essential. Or are we all going to tell the kids that santa isnt coming cos he caught covid or something?

Did you read my post or just the first line ?

"Happy Christmas kids, glad you got your toys from Santa and hope you are enjoying Christmas with your Auntie .
Sorry I can't be there with you but the nurses are looking after me well here in ICU and are sending this message to you.
Sorry no pictures but not too festive here at the moment ..."
How's that for a bit of perspective ?
Sorry if it's too harsh for you !

zerosugarbuzz

Goldengirl wrote: »

Did you read my post or just the first line ?

"Happy Christmas kids, glad you got your toys from Santa and hope you are enjoying Christmas with your Auntie .
Sorry I can't be there with you but the nurses are looking after me well here in ICU and are sending this message to you.
Sorry no pictures but not too festive here at the moment ..."
How's that for a bit of perspective ?
Sorry if it's too harsh for you !

Slow down on the dramatics there, you'll give yourself severe anxiety...

AdamD

OwenM wrote: »

Martin and Holohan are going to look like Chicken Licken if this continues.

Even if does, which remains to be seen, your average person isn't tracking this enough to know that level 3 was potentially going to work. Plus the delay for restrictions having an effect pretty much means people can spin these things whichever way they want.

Loafing Oaf

Kimbot wrote: »

Ah you never know, some of these people mass buying knickers might have been wearing the same pear since the first lock down.

Or apple, depending on their body shape...

bennyl10

OwenM wrote: »

Martin and Holohan are going to look like Chicken Licken if this continues.

Because they took steps based on projections?

How dare their crystal ball not work

There’s also an element in level 5 to review in a few weeks if it improves

Goldengirl

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I think a lot of people are assuming the 6 weeks may not be 6 weeks, and are lashing in the Christmas shopping just in case. Yes you can buy lots online, but not everyone shops online.

During the last lockdown, we needed to get socks and underwear for our daughter and most online sellers had nothing. Because 90% of people buy these in penny’s, and they were closed, so Next, M&S, etc, all sold out quick.

I’m guessing people are taking the risk on the chance that they extend level 5 again.

I appreciate that , but it is also true that everyone crowding in to town to do non essential shopping and no mask wearing as per the OP's post , is kind of reinforcing the premise that we may end up in a worse state in the next 2 to 4 weeks than originally expected , and that will ensure that , yes , we won't be able to reopen for Christmas shopping .
Surely people have the sense to see that we will never get out of this if this consumer mentality takes precedent over public health .
Maybe it's time for people to go back to basics a bit here , concentrate on what is actually important for Christmas , and it's not new slippers and pyjamas , or the latest toy .

caveat emptor

Bit of Marvin gay wouldn't go astray. Stay safe folks.

seamus

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I have to concede that it's looking like Seamus was probably right, and we're seeing the effects of level 3 being applied nationally really eat into the growth of the virus.

It remains to be seen if the pattern holds and if it would have been a realistic alternative to going to level 5, but fair play to Seamus for the call.

Look, I'm just some idiot who knows how to use Excel.

I spotted a pattern, called that out and noted the potential it had. It could easily have gone the other way. When the same pattern appeared in Dublin at the start of the month, and I called that out, it did go the other way.

It still might go the other way. Or it could plateau. I certainly wouldn't go as far as saying we are on solid a downward trend until early next week. But it's optimistic.

We know that in general that the rate of decrease tends to accelerate. But it may not. It may be a long, gentle slope. Which would mean we'd still have positivity rates of 2-3% by 1st December. That's not good enough, which would mean that level 5 is the right call because it will absolutely drive rates into the ground.

Things which we can tentatively say based on today's data;

1. Cries of doom, of 1500-2000 cases by the end of the month, "This is going to get much, much worse", "they'll be back in two weeks looking for more restrictions", "Xmas is cancelled, we'll be in lockdown for 10 weeks", are now closer to "quite unlikely", where last Friday it would have been 50:50.

2. Level 3 does work. At least insofar as it definitely has an impact on flattening growth of the virus. Whether it can actually suppress it, we won't know for a few days. But it means that when we get to 1st December and impose level 3, we're unlikely to be watching case numbers creeping up again until we need a new lockdown in January.

3. Hospitals and ICUs are still a considerable concern. When you're at the top of the bell curve, you're only halfway there. Even if we're on a downward trend, we can expect at least the same number of ICU & hospital admissions over the next 6 weeks, that we saw over the last 6.

If level 3 does have a proper reducing effect on the virus, then rotating between level 2 and 3 might be a long-term sustainable solution. Or even just level 2 with proper enforcement and more restrictions on home visitors.

Gruffalux

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

Slow down on the dramatics there, you'll give yourself severe anxiety...

Why don't you swap jobs with her for a while? Go into the hospital and do a few weeks in the ICU or on the Covid ward. She can take a rest and you can see how you feel about things mid November. How bout it?

Polar101

Lack of resources in tracing contacts seems to include the government as well.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/martin-only-told-of-contact-tracing-problem-when-texted-irish-times-story-1.4387131

Taoiseach Micheál Martin only found out when he was texted an Irish Times story that the contact tracing system was so overwhelmed at the weekend that people who tested positive were being asked to do their own contact tracing.

Goldengirl

Maxpfizer wrote: »

Maybe people just don't care?

Plenty of people over indulge in cigarettes and booze etc knowing the health risks. We're not exactly well know for our healthy diets here either. Reckless driving etc etc etc.

The ad for CO alarms is there to raise awareness. People are still free to not care.

You go to a supermarket or convenience store tomorrow and I guarantee you'll be seeing people without masks on, coughing away, ignoring the hand sanitizer at the door, letting their kids run wild.

The last lockdown reduced the numbers despite a large amount of people not really bothering to obey the guidelines. So I'd imagine the same will happen here. Then we'll open up again and within 2 months we'll be creeping towards Lockdown: Round 3.

Numbers will be reduced if they are depending on people to tell their own contacts to get a test !
Can't see that working , especially with the level of compliance you detail in your post .
And by the way , most people were compliant with the 1 st lockdown.

polesheep

Maxpfizer wrote: »

Maybe people just don't care?

Plenty of people over indulge in cigarettes and booze etc knowing the health risks. We're not exactly well know for our healthy diets here either. Reckless driving etc etc etc.

The ad for CO alarms is there to raise awareness. People are still free to not care.

You go to a supermarket or convenience store tomorrow and I guarantee you'll be seeing people without masks on, coughing away, ignoring the hand sanitizer at the door, letting their kids run wild.

The last lockdown reduced the numbers despite a large amount of people not really bothering to obey the guidelines. So I'd imagine the same will happen here. Then we'll open up again and within 2 months we'll be creeping towards Lockdown: Round 3.

This type of comment is really starting to piss me off. There is an extraordinary level of compliance with mask wearing. It has been months since I last saw someone in a retail situation not wearing a mask.

Wolf359f

Benimar wrote: »

The obvious bad news is that Track and Trace has fallen on its arse. I wonder what % on average of close contacts test positive?

For some reason I'm thinking it's either 8% or 12% of close contacts become positive.
I think it was mentioned at a presser in relation to community vs schools as a comparison.
But that 8/12% would be when they are interviewed by contact tracers and the contact tracers determine which close contacts are deemed suitable for a test (more than 15mins, mask vs no mask etc...)

dmakc

bennyl10 wrote: »

There’s also an element in level 5 to review in a few weeks if it improves

Even if we were <200/day in 4 weeks they will not open things up

GazzaL

Fair play to the Gardaí for hassling truck drivers doing essential work.

fritzelly

D.Q wrote: »

is there anything to be said for another leaflet?

Still waiting on the first one to arrive...

polesheep

Gruffalux wrote: »

Why don't you swap jobs with her for a while? Go into the hospital and do a few weeks in the ICU or on the Covid ward. She can take a rest and you can see how you feel about things mid November. How bout it?

I haven't heard anyone who works in ICU or a Covid ward complaining about people shopping.

fly_agaric

fly_agaric wrote: »

I think (as per stories in the media) system has been overwhelmed, so figures will not reflect course of outbreak any longer.

If that is the case and there's no biases in terms of who is getting into system from the community (i.e. as a "close contact") for a test I think I might expect case numbers and positivity rates from testing system to stay constant for a while regardless of what is actually happening.

Would I be wrong about this?

The positivity rate & daily detected case numbers may go up again later on [if the level 5 fails & the outbreak grows further].

If close contacts are not being referred, positive rate should rise, as symptomatics would form a larger proportion of those being tested, and would also be more likely to return positive result. This will become apparent in the data within days, and has potential to reverse the positive trend in the positive rate

batman_oh

polesheep wrote: »

This type of comment is really starting to piss me off. There is an extraordinary level of compliance with mask wearing. It has been months since I last saw someone in a retail situation not wearing a mask.

I saw about 15 teenagers outside the shops the other night going into the chipper/spar etc with zero masks

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

If close contacts are not being referred, positive rate should rise, as symptomatics would form a larger proportion of those being tested, and would also be more likely to return positive result. This will become apparent in the data within days, and has potential to reverse the positive trend in the positive rate

That's interesting and makes me wonder what any of these numbers really tell us about what is actually happening in terms of population infection.

Goldengirl

fly_agaric wrote: »

I think (as per stories in the media) system has been overwhelmed, so figures will not reflect course of outbreak any longer.

If that is the case and there's no biases in terms of who is getting into system from the community (i.e. as a "close contact") for a test I think I might expect case numbers and positivity rates from testing system to stay constant for a while regardless of what is actually happening.

Would I be wrong about this?

The positivity rate & daily detected case numbers may go up again later on [if the level 5 fails & the outbreak grows further].

Yes .
If inadequate contact tracing then those people will not go for tests .
Aymptomatic spread will continue unabated as only those with symptoms will go to be tested and isolate .
So starting a lockdown basically with no idea of real numbers going forward if this issue is not sorted quickly .
Back to March here

mloc123

Boggles wrote: »

Yeah, 1100+ more infected people all now ringing their friends and family

And to think... if those 1100 people had just followed the guidance from the past couple of weeks... they would have nobody to phone.

Gruffalux

polesheep wrote: »

I haven't heard anyone who works in ICU or a Covid ward complaining about people shopping.

Telling someone who works in a hospital these days to chill out is just stupid.

Away With The Fairies

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes .
If inadequate contact tracing then those people will not go for tests .
Aymptomatic spread will continue unabated as only those with symptoms will go to be tested and isolate .
So starting a lockdown basically with no idea of real numbers going forward if this issue is not sorted quickly .
Back to March here

How can this be fixed if there's asymptomatics walking around?

polesheep

batman_oh wrote: »

I saw about 15 teenagers outside the shops the other night going into the chipper/spar etc with zero masks

You must have been stalking them.

stephenjmcd

They are absolutely not an issue, 10000% safe....

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1318938915244548096?s=19

polesheep

polesheep wrote: »

That's interesting and makes me wonder what any of these numbers really tell us about what is actually happening in terms of population infection.

All the numbers are only indicative and have varying degrees of accuracy

polesheep

Gruffalux wrote: »

Telling someone who works in a hospital these days to chill out is just stupid.

Why? I know lots of people working in hospitals and they are not any busier or more stressed than normal. The hospitals have not been overwhelmed you know.

That said, telling anyone to chill out is probably stupid.

jammiedodgers

D.Q wrote: »

is there anything to be said for another leaflet?

I thought the last one went very well.

Goldengirl

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

Slow down on the dramatics there, you'll give yourself severe anxiety...

No drama . No anxiety .
Reality , and just trying to get that message across to some who don't get it .
Obviously a waste of time with some..

Maxpfizer

polesheep wrote: »

This type of comment is really starting to piss me off. There is an extraordinary level of compliance with mask wearing. It has been months since I last saw someone in a retail situation not wearing a mask.

I can only speak for places in and around Dublin but I've seen people not wearing masks in the city in retail situations already this week never mind the last few months.

Two major supermarket chains with shops in the city center have their own staff not wearing masks properly on the weekend just past and yesterday morning. One with the mask on under her nose (nose not covered) the other entering the store (from break I assume) with NO mask on and then walking around with mask worn under her chin.

Yeah, there is a high level of compliance but there are LOADS of people also simply not obeying.

Check out the top deck on any Dublin bus you see driving past.
Or have a look the next time you see the LUAS going by.

PLENTY of people not giving a damn.

Blanco100

stephenjmcd wrote: »

They are absolutely not an issue, 10000% safe....

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1318938915244548096?s=19

The government/NPHET know keeping them in school is probably safer than the carry on when schools were closed when parents just let them wander the streets rather than keep them inside during a pandemic.