Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Eod100

Presume there's no NPHET briefing tonight as there was one yesterday?

CIARAN_BOYLE

Eod100 wrote: »

Presume there's no NPHET briefing tonight as there was one yesterday?

Presumably. They are usually Monday and Friday. The Monday one got moved to Tuesday this week to make space for the government address Monday evening.

AdamD

mloc123 wrote: »

And to think... if those 1100 people had just followed the guidance from the past couple of weeks... they would have nobody to phone.

The idea that the only way to get this is to break the guidelines really needs to go in the bin.

seamus

fly_agaric wrote: »

I think (as per stories in the media) system has been overwhelmed, so figures will not reflect course of outbreak any longer.

Apparently this "do the tracing yourself" initiative is a temporary thing.

It's probably a form of amnesty; a realisation that if they don't do this, then the entire system will be backlogged by a week or more. So better to let this 2,000 effectively fall through the cracks rather than incur delays in the next 10,000.

If the HSE is to be believed, they're back on top of the case load.

Big "If".

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

They are absolutely not an issue, 10000% safe....

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1318938915244548096?s=19

In the same 7 days the schools clusters doubled, overall cases increased by 64%. Not unexpected given it started from a low number

mloc123

AdamD wrote: »

The idea that the only way to get this is to break the guidelines really needs to go in the bin.

They specifically said friends and family... Under the guidelines you shouldn't have visited those right?

Hellrazer

Goldengirl wrote: »

Did you read my post or just the first line ?

"Happy Christmas kids, glad you got your toys from Santa and hope you are enjoying Christmas with your Auntie .
Sorry I can't be there with you but the nurses are looking after me well here in ICU and are sending this message to you.
Sorry no pictures but not too festive here at the moment ..."
How's that for a bit of perspective ?
Sorry if it's too harsh for you !

How about

Happy Christmas Kids
The 3 evil elves (Micheal ,Stephen and Tony) wouldnt allow me to go shopping for the toys you wanted because they closed the shops since they havent a clue what theyre doing and want us to keep locking down every few months.
Your auntie from down the road isnt allowed visit this Christmas since shes 6 km away and they`ll only allow people 5 km away to visit.
But look we`re looking after the few people in hospital and the even lesser few in ICU but "we`re all in it together" so maybe next Christmas you`ll get what you wanted if the grinches dont lock down next year aswell.

Maxpfizer

Goldengirl wrote: »

Numbers will be reduced if they are depending on people to tell there own contacts to get a test !
Can't see that working , especially with the level of compliance you detail in your post .
And by the way , most people were compliant with the 1 st lockdown.

Most people were compliant, yes. I know that. The streets were deserted for the first few weeks.

We got the numbers down and then the advice was to wear masks and be careful and follow some guidelines and now we are where we are today.

Anyone walking down Grafton Street on a Friday or Saturday evening over the last 2 months would have been able to see the inevitable second lockdown coming from a mile away.

Even down to little things like buskers starting up a song and getting crowds gathered around them that people just trying to walk down the street would have to push through.

theballz

Plenty of gyms in the country refusing to close. I don't think this "lockdown" going the way the government would like it to.

Goldengirl

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

How can this be fixed if there's asymptomatics walking around?

Hopefully they won't be with level 5 .
But you still have the schools open ...

Savage_Henry

What does the "emergency basis only" means? I guess we as a computer repair shop just stay open as usual?

Outlets providing electrical, information and communications technology and telephone sales, repair and maintenance services for places of residence and businesses, on an emergency basis only

Away With The Fairies

Goldengirl wrote: »

Hopefully they won't be with level 5 .
But you still have the schools open ...

Except asymptomatics can also work in essential services. So these people can't be stopped.

JP100

46 identified outbreaks of Covid in schools last week, that's a pretty high number.

Savage_Henry

Savage_Henry wrote: »

What does the "emergency basis only" means? I guess we as a computer repair shop just stay open as usual?

Outlets providing electrical, information and communications technology and telephone sales, repair and maintenance services for places of residence and businesses, on an emergency basis only

Time to hit the scag.

Eod100

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Presumably. They are usually Monday and Friday. The Monday one got moved to Tuesday this week to make space for the government address Monday evening.

I thought it was Monday and Wednesday these days?

Liberalbrehon

Good luck with lockdown folks.
I think the Guards will be more robust this time around from what I'm hearing. Some of those billions might be getting repaid with lots of fines.

Eod100

Eod100 wrote: »

I thought it was Monday and Wednesday these days?

Or is it Thursday? I dunno tbh, I'm confused myself!ha

Non solum non ambulabit

stephenjmcd wrote: »

They are absolutely not an issue, 10000% safe....

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1318938915244548096?s=19

There are hundreds of thousands of students in thousands of schools. An outbreak is 2 or more cases in a school that could have 1000 students.

Is there possibly a chance that the students caught covid in the community and not in the school?

Over 7k people we infected last week - it is impossible for to keep it out of schools.

Goldengirl

Maxpfizer wrote: »

Most people were compliant, yes. I know that. The streets were deserted for the first few weeks.

We got the numbers down and then the advice was to wear masks and be careful and follow some guidelines and now we are where we are today.

Anyone walking down Grafton Street on a Friday or Saturday evening over the last 2 months would have been able to see the inevitable second lockdown coming from a mile away.

Even down to little things like buskers starting up a song and getting crowds gathered around them that people just trying to walk down the street would have to push through.

Have to say the buskers and crowds in the street ....outdoors ...never bother me .
And most people I see except a few drunk langers are nearly all wearing masks , and a lot more wearing them in the streets as well .
I am hoping that these people are still the majority and that we can get this back under control.

Eod100

stephenjmcd wrote: »

They are absolutely not an issue, 10000% safe....

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1318938915244548096?s=19

I guess when community transmission is so high it's inevitable. But seems a stretch to say pretty much everywhere but them should stay open and not think there could be a higher risk then.

What Username Guidelines

Holy moly, almost triple their original April peak.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1318945513425821697?s=20

And 26K in the UK

Jenna James

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Holy moly, almost triple their original April peak.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1318945513425821697?s=20

And 26K in the UK

christ on a bike..

bb1234567

billybonkers wrote: »

Right so if its 3,285 calls per day (23,000 / 7 days)

That is 7.3 calls for each of the 450 staff per day then.

How long does a contract tracing call take, can anyone who was contacted comment?

7 calls is a lot considering the amount of work each one entails. Do you think finding and sourcing multiple contacts of somebody is an easy job, probably need to call each person multiple times if they dont pick up or are busy at the time. Of course one call could take a couple of hours easily. I'm sure they work normal hours 8-9 per day like most people, also everyone get's weekends. Not all of the 450 work 7 days a week that seems really unlikely, probably a shift work, some of the group work the weekends and get two weeks days off etc. No wonder there is an unfeasible work load.

But there should be at least 1000 people on the CTT team

Goldengirl

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Except asymptomatics can also work in essential services. So these people can't be stopped.

True.
But regular testing of healthcare workers looking after vulnerable patients is going on, to screen for this .
These people are restricting their contacts for months already ..

bb1234567

Cant believe what's happening in Italy. Flipped the lid so feckin fast, really seemed like they had a good handle on it up until very very recently.The derioration is extremely rapid, not all that dissimilar to March really. When 1 in 3 people in a country is elderly you don't really stand a chance though with covid

Eod100

Looks like this is a script contact tracers would use and just edited slightly. Reading it just highlights how ridiculous it is that people have to do it. What happens if someone is too sick? Also huge issue of not being anonymous by having to contact people yourself. What a major feck up!


https://twitter.com/michellehtweet/status/1318947153679667200

wadacrack

In a few weeks we might be thankfull we have had strict protocals compared to europe. Rates extremely high and only October

Longing

The UK is spiraling out of control. Crazy numbers across the water. Belgium also on the brink reporting soon the will have to decide who gets ICU bed. Shocking the way its gone. Really sad to see.

mountgomery burns

Eod100 wrote: »

Looks like this is a script contact tracers would use and just edited slightly. Reading it just highlights how ridiculous it is that people have to do it. What happens if someone is too sick? Also huge issue of not being anonymous by having to contact people yourself. What a major feck up!


https://twitter.com/michellehtweet/status/1318947153679667200

It's an absolute joke but just on the issue of people being too sick, would that not be an issue anyway as they wouldn't be able to take the call from contact tracers in the first place?

Stheno

wadacrack wrote: »

In a few weeks we might be thankfull we have had strict protocals compared to europe. Rates extremely high and only October

That's the only positive I can see about going to level 5 tbh, but it's a big positive

Jenna James

Longing wrote: »

The UK is spiraling out of control. Crazy numbers across the water. Belgium also on the brink reporting soon the will have to decide who gets ICU bed. Shocking the way its gone. Really sad to see.

The report on Belgium is frightening.
I'm noticing a lot of people I know are just making up the rules to suit themselves and I will be keeping away from 1 person in particular as I believe they are a close contact but aren't planning on a test. He works in a school too (non-teaching). :mad:

bb1234567

wadacrack wrote: »

In a few weeks we might be thankfull we have had strict protocals compared to europe. Rates extremely high and only October

Yeh I'm beginning to think that myself, for a while I thought maybe we were going overboard because Sweden somehow managed so well despite their outlook on it but now the situations getting so bad in places that opened up their economies such as Argentina where 30,000 people are currently hospitalised or czech republic which has over 4000 in hospital now has changed my opinion on this yet again.

Given how fast our cases are growing even with the restrictions we had I think we would go the way of those countries rather than Sweden. I dont know what Sweden did so right but it looks like a bit of a fluke at this stage, that they just got lucky rather than the rest of the world overreacting, their success has been replicated in very few places worldwide who took similar relaxed approach to deling with outbreak suppression

s1ippy

seamus wrote: »

Apparently this "do the tracing yourself" initiative is a temporary thing.

It's probably a form of amnesty; a realisation that if they don't do this, then the entire system will be backlogged by a week or more. So better to let this 2,000 effectively fall through the cracks rather than incur delays in the next 10,000.

If the HSE is to be believed, they're back on top of the case load.

Big "If".

Did you not hear the ads on the radio.

"Coronavirus is here, and it cares about your backlog."

manniot2

Stheno wrote: »

That's the only positive I can see about going to level 5 tbh, but it's a big positive

Level 3 equivalent is the most anywhere else will go for a prolonged period. I think they understand proportionality which unfortunately is lost on NPHET.

Eod100

mountgomery burns wrote: »

It's an absolute joke but just on the issue of people being too sick, would that not be an issue anyway as they wouldn't be able to take the call from contact tracers in the first place?

I guess it depends, some people might be well enough to think of names but fairly different to think of them and then have to let them all know individually. Maybe it wouldn't be a massive issue but just think the whole thing is farcical tbh

SortingYouOut

manniot2 wrote: »

Level 3 equivalent is the most anywhere else will go for a prolonged period. I think they understand proportionality which unfortunately is lost on NPHET.

That's really working for them, have you seen the state of Europe? We've just bitten the bullet that bit earlier.

Funsterdelux

seamus wrote: »

Look, I'm just some idiot who knows how to use Excel.

I .

Made me think of one of my favourite Hugh Grant movies.

manniot2

SortingYouOut wrote: »

That's really working for them, have you seen the state of Europe? We've just bitten the bullet that bit earlier.

No it isnt working, because they arent even at those level of restrictions yet. Come back to me when any country in Europe matches our restrictions.

Eod100

There's an asterisk around schools because transmission risk there has not necessarily been established. Why is same health warning not any other setting?

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1318944963888119809

SleetAndSnow

Deaths look to be increasing around Europe again? Nearly 200 in the UK today and nearly 130 in Italy as well as Poland. Kind of makes a bit at ease we bit the bullet to go into level 5 a bit earlier to hopefully avoid these, Belgium looks to be in trouble with hospital numbers.

7aubzxk43m2sni

From my younger sibling's Politics class in school:

Stheno

manniot2 wrote: »

Level 3 equivalent is the most anywhere else will go for a prolonged period. I think they understand proportionality which unfortunately is lost on NPHET.

Well I'd hope that if it can be shown that there is a significant drop in cases this week, that common sense prevails and it's realised that it contributed

SortingYouOut

manniot2 wrote: »

No it isnt working, because they arent even at those level of restrictions yet. Come back to me when any country in Europe matches our restrictions.

Why should we follow suit with regions seeing case numbers dramatically increasing, along with deaths and hospitalisations?

Do you not think it's better that we take our own initiative to prevent the inevitable that they are seeing instead of following blindly?

bb1234567

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Deaths look to be increasing around Europe again? Nearly 200 in the UK today and nearly 130 in Italy as well as Poland. Kind of makes a bit at ease we bit the bullet to go into level 5 a bit earlier to hopefully avoid these, Belgium looks to be in trouble with hospital numbers.

Almost 2000 deaths in Europe yesterday, peak in April around 4000-5000 in Europe were dying daily

CIARAN_BOYLE

Eod100 wrote: »

There's an asterisk around schools because transmission risk there has not necessarily been established. Why is same health warning not any other setting?

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1318944963888119809

If there's no contact between cases in a restaurant they aren't counted as a cluster.

I believe they are counted as a cluster for that if there are 4 cases in a school and there's no established contact.

bb1234567

bb1234567 wrote: »

Yeh I'm beginning to think that myself, for a while I thought maybe we were going overboard because Sweden somehow managed so well despite their outlook on it but now the situations getting so bad in places that opened up their economies such as Argentina where 30,000 people are currently hospitalised or czech republic which has over 4000 in hospital now has changed my opinion on this yet again.

Given how fast our cases are growing even with the restrictions we had I think we would go the way of those countries rather than Sweden. I dont know what Sweden did so right but it looks like a bit of a fluke at this stage, that they just got lucky rather than the rest of the world overreacting, their success has been replicated in very few places worldwide who took similar relaxed approach to deling with outbreak suppression

Sweden had a very outdoorsy culture, eg Stockholm has hundreds of little sparsely populated islands and woods people retreat to in late spring and summer, able to get away from each other in little summer cabins. We here tend to congregate together in hoards.

Arghus

JDD wrote: »

I don't really understand why people are surprised that the government have mandated a second lockdown, or are surprised that it is likely we will have a third strict lockdown in mid Jan - Feb once we go down to Level 2/3 over Christmas?

We know that the R number goes over 1 when restrictions go below Level 4.

We have a fair idea of how many people will be hospitalised out of positive cases.

So if the government and NPHET are looking at the number of positive tests over the past two weeks, lets call them Group A, they have a fair idea that there are going to be a certain number of hospital admissions in the next week.

They also know that Group A have already infected a wider number of people, lets call them Group B, whose have yet to show up as positive tests. The government know that a certain proportion of Group B will be admitted to hospital in 2-3 weeks time.

Using their models, they must know that present hospital admissions + Group A admissions + Group B admissions - hospital discharges = hospital capacity. So we can't let Group B wander around and infect Group C, as that will mean tents outside hospitals by the start of December.

It is only logic to expect that a six week lockdown - shorter than the March lockdown, and less buy in by the public, will not reduce daily infections down to single figures as it did in June. If we are lucky, this lockdown will reduce daily infections down to around 100 a day.

Christmas will be a free for all. There's no point pretending it won't be. There will be some of course who will continue to be sensible and may decide not to be with family on the day or around it, but most will feel like they deserve to celebrate Christmas as normally as possible after the lockdown. That will lead to a spike in infections and I wouldn't be surprised if the R rate went over 2.

While the R rate may naturally go back down in January, as it is always a quiet month, I think we will be in the same situation as we are now at the end of January and another lockdown will be inevitable. I expect at least one further strict lockdown in May next year, before the vaccine starts to be rolled out.

Why haven't the HSE increased hospital capacity between June and September? I don't know. I know that an additional hospital bed costs €1m each, when you factor in staff costs and overheads, but I don't think money is the problem. It is probably getting the trained staff. You can't go poaching indonesian nurses like we would in normal times. It takes four years to train a nurse, they can't be magicked up.

So that is where we are. The sooner we accept it, the less traumatic it will be.

You've hit the nail on the head there. People's shock at the prospect of another lockdown is bewildering to me - it's been on the cards for a while now.

People being angry about MM saying other lockdowns are possible, even probable, until a vaccine or a breakthrough in treatment becomes available is totally nonsensical: that is reality, for all his many faults, I'm glad someone amongst our political class said it finally.

And how people continue to overlook the basic fact that you can throw money at all the hospital beds you want but it won't make much difference if you don't have the trained staff required - and you can't train all those staff in six months.

People complaining about the contact tracing - not that there isn't grounds for criticism - and why it wasn't ramped up to deal with any eventuality... I suppose the HSE was like the rest of us in the country: they thought the worst was over. Society thought the worst was over. The media thought the worst was over, the government thought the worst was over - nobody wanted to hear about Covid and future lockdowns during late summer, even going into September. Nobody. There was a complete complacency everywhere about the continuing risk. This thread was full of it.

And there's still complacency: there was a huge outbreak where I am from, all linked to GAA final celebrations - and even know some people aren't answering the phone when they get the call telling them that they are a close contact, or they aren't going for tests or they aren't restricting their movements etc, etc - it's a shyteshow - and it all comes down to a lack of personal responsibility and care. People like apportioning blame elsewhere - ah the government, the HSE, NPHET - but the main driver of this is people not being careful.

SleetAndSnow

bb1234567 wrote: »

Almost 2000 deaths in Europe yesterday, peak in April around 4000-5000 in Europe were dying daily

Hopefully we don't get back to that point in the future, I can see more countries imposing more restrictions soon. All it takes is one country to do it and the others will probably follow suit

OwenM

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Deaths look to be increasing around Europe again? Nearly 200 in the UK today and nearly 130 in Italy as well as Poland. Kind of makes a bit at ease we bit the bullet to go into level 5 a bit earlier to hopefully avoid these, Belgium looks to be in trouble with hospital numbers.

Maybe put some proportional view on it rather than "People are dying"

In the UK in early April 1100 people a day were dying, Today the 7 day average is 135.

Eod100

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

If there's no contact between cases in a restaurant they aren't counted as a cluster.

I believe they are counted as a cluster for that if there are 4 cases in a school and there's no established contact.

I can understand the same rational applying to other settings. I mean why the data for schools is specifically labelled with that asterisk while everywhere else isn't.