Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

SleetAndSnow

OwenM wrote: »

Maybe put some proportional view on it rather than "People are dying"

In the UK in early April 1100 people a day were dying, Today the 7 day average is 135.

And? It is growing isn't it? Once it starts spreading more it reaches the older ages. There was most likely x5 or x10 the cases in the UK during April that weren't being counted. That is a point we don't want to go back too

bb1234567

OwenM wrote: »

Maybe put some proportional view on it rather than "People are dying"

In the UK in early April 1100 people a day were dying, Today the 7 day average is 135.

The point is it's a pretty rapid growth regardless of what occurred in April

By the end of the week the 7 day average UK deaths will be around 200, a month ago it was 10 per day

It has already exceeded worst case scenario which predicted UK seeing 100 covid deaths daily by late October

Signore Fancy Pants

1039 more cases and 5 deaths in NI.

kingshankly

Signore Fancy Pants wrote: »

1039 more cases and 5 deaths.

northern Ireland

Nibs05

Signore Fancy Pants wrote: »

1039 more cases and 5 deaths.

Isn’t that Northern Ireland

CIARAN_BOYLE

Signore Fancy Pants wrote: »

1039 more cases and 5 deaths.

You would need to give a very good source with that if you expect me to believe Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland have the exact same case numbers.

Signore Fancy Pants

kingshankly wrote: »

northern Ireland

Correct and right, edited.

ACitizenErased

1167 and 3 deaths

ACitizenErased

263 in Dublin, 142 in Meath, 137 in Cork, 86 in Cavan and the remaining 539 cases are spread across all remaining counties.

mloc123

Omari Prehistoric Truth wrote: »

From my younger sibling's Politics class in school:

Jesus, that teacher has some agenda

ACitizenErased

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1318957345846792193?s=20

GazzaL

stephenjmcd wrote: »

They are absolutely not an issue, 10000% safe....

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1318938915244548096?s=19

It's under control. The Gardaí stopping and hassling truck drivers and telling them to turn around will sort out the COVID cases in schools.

Another one of their "**** Business" policies.

fritzelly

Omari Prehistoric Truth wrote: »

From my younger sibling's Politics class in school:

Can you forward that to George Lee?

mountgomery burns

mountgomery burns wrote: »

It's an absolute joke but just on the issue of people being too sick, would that not be an issue anyway as they wouldn't be able to take the call from contact tracers in the first place?

If you are that sick you need to summons medical help. When the oxygen saturation drops in your blood below 90 you start becoming disorientated and unable to think rationally as I have experienced. It goes beyond your call to do anything other than summons an ambulance for yourself.

Pete_Cavan

So situation stabilised without going to Level 5, hopefully cases will plummet fast with L5 and we can drop back to L4 after a few weeks and then L3.

Always_Running

So just 62 backlog cases added in today.

MD1990

hopefully we have reached the peak now & the numbers will start to go down.

Stheno

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1318957345846792193?s=20

The Cavan numbers are horrific

Goldrickssan

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

So situation stabilised without going to Level 5, hopefully cases will plummet fast with L5 and we can drop back to L4 after a few weeks and then L3.

It's far from stable yet

mloc123

bb1234567 wrote: »

Cant believe what's happening in Italy. Flipped the lid so feckin fast, really seemed like they had a good handle on it up until very very recently.The derioration is extremely rapid, not all that dissimilar to March really. When 1 in 3 people in a country is elderly you don't really stand a chance though with covid

Remember here 1-2 months ago - "Italy have all pubs and cafes open and are doing fine... why can't we follow them"

CIARAN_BOYLE

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

So situation stabilised without going to Level 5, hopefully cases will plummet fast with L5 and we can drop back to L4 after a few weeks and then L3.

We stabalise as we test 30k over 2 days compared to 19k a day at our highest. Contact tracing break down and people who need tests not referred to test.

I think we understand why things seem to "stabalise".

mloc123

Stheno wrote: »

The Cavan numbers are horrific

Cavan has more Schools than any other county... I assume anyway, there could be no other reason :pac:

ACitizenErased

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

We stabalise as we test 30k over 2 days compared to 19k a day at our highest. Contact tracing break down and people who need tests not referred to test.

I think we understand why things seem to "stabalise".

The sample size is big enough for the positivity rate to reflect change. Tests have reduced as you said, but so has the positivity rate. If you reduce tests you'd expect it to increase, not decrease.

Longing

Half the cases are from 0-24 years.

circadian

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Sweden had a very outdoorsy culture, eg Stockholm has hundreds of little sparsely populated islands and woods people retreat to in late spring and summer, able to get away from each other in little summer cabins. We here tend to congregate together in hoards.

This. It's what bothers me when people say "But (insert country name) didn't have a lockdown so we shouldn't either" don't actually take into account culture and the behaviour of the population.

Funsterdelux

Eod100 wrote: »

Looks like this is a script contact tracers would use and just edited slightly. Reading it just highlights how ridiculous it is that people have to do it. What happens if someone is too sick? Also huge issue of not being anonymous by having to contact people yourself. What a major feck up!


https://twitter.com/michellehtweet/status/1318947153679667200

All you need is a phone!

Funsterdelux

Longing wrote: »

Half the cases are from 0-24 years.

And the other half?

CIARAN_BOYLE

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The sample size is big enough for the positivity rate to reflect change. Tests have reduced as you said, but so has the positivity rate. If you reduce tests you'd expect it to increase, not decrease.

I'll need a longer drop in positivity to note change. I'm sorry.

From one of the recent press conferences close contacts of school cases is around 2% compared to close contacts of community cases of around 8%.

I is this as potentially a pile of tests with 8% positivity pulled out causing total positivity to drop.

Hopefully I'm wrong but don't throw a party that we have turned a corner yet based on a small drop in positivity.

nimrod86

Funsterdelux wrote: »

And the other half?

25-∞? :pac:

ACitizenErased

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I'll need a longer drop in positivity to note change. I'm sorry.

From one of the recent press conferences close contacts of school cases is around 2% compared to close contacts of community cases of around 8%.

I is this as potentially a pile of tests with 8% positivity pulled out causing total positivity to drop.

Hopefully I'm wrong but don't throw a party that we have turned a corner yet based on a small drop in positivity.

Nobody said we've turned a corner, a poster noted stabilisation, for 4 days running.

Funsterdelux

nimrod86 wrote: »

25-∞? :pac:

People are living too long!

Blondini

Not the schools.

Nothing to see here.

As you were.

Longing

Funsterdelux wrote: »

And the other half?

She is still here. Doing good. Thanks for asking:D

Turtwig

If tracing is missing cases then would you not expect positivity rate to have an upward bias?

Don't know enough about the tracing mechanics though. This is purely intuition that may be very flawed.

circadian

Blondini wrote: »

Not the schools.

Nothing to see here.

As you were.

If numbers are currently levelling out then yes, it's not the schools. Not entirely at least, a few weeks of level 5 will show the true effect of schools on the numbers.

niallo27

mloc123 wrote: »

Remember here 1-2 months ago - "Italy have all pubs and cafes open and are doing fine... why can't we follow them"

This lazy pathetic argument, yes they were doing fine, they were open for months so what went wrong for them.

Mark1916

mloc123 wrote: »

Remember here 1-2 months ago - "Italy have all pubs and cafes open and are doing fine... why can't we follow them"

Let’s look at some numbers.

On 3rd April in Italy they’d 4,068 people in ICU, 4,585 new cases, 766 deaths and 1,480 recoveries and they tested 38,617 people.

On 21st October they’d 926 in ICU, 15,199 new cases, 127 deaths, 2,369 recoveries and 177,848 people tested.

While case numbers have indeed increased over this past while, they have increased their ICU capacity, made masks mandatory outside and have now put in Curfews in the largest areas plus the capacity they’re able to test now is outstanding. Just interested in looking at the numbers behind these things.

j@utis

Longing wrote: »

Half the cases are from 0-24 years.

are they sick, or just "cases" and if not tested would've never known about being "sick"?

eagle eye

https://twitter.com/dlooney/status/1318940496975233027

Listen to the experts, don't listen to the teachers about health. Yeah right.

Longing

j@utis wrote: »

are they sick, or just "cases" and if not tested would've never known about being "sick"?

Don't know.

https://twitter.com/Paul_Gibbons220/status/1318958773638209539

CIARAN_BOYLE

Turtwig wrote: »

If tracing is missing cases then would you not expect positivity rate to have an upward bias?

Don't know enough about the tracing mechanics though. This is purely intuition that may be very flawed.

It's my understanding that the positivity rate among close contacts in the community is around 8%. If the total positivity rate is 7.1% taking out a bundle of tests at 8% would lower the positivity rate.

Fr_Dougal

circadian wrote: »

If numbers are currently levelling out then yes, it's not the schools. Not entirely at least, a few weeks of level 5 will show the true effect of schools on the numbers.

Ah sure we heard that when Dublin went to Level 3.5, it’s the pubs, numbers will level off when we shut them.

How long are they shut now and the numbers are still increasing.

Blondini

eagle eye wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dlooney/status/1318940496975233027

Listen to the experts, don't listen to the teachers about health. Yeah right.

Amazing the numbers of cases that are found when you actually test the school population.

Asymptomatic children passing it in to Granny all over the country.

Foolish to think otherwise.

Schools are driving a lot of cases.

Derek Zoolander

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It's my understanding that the positivity rate among close contacts in the community is around 8%. If the total positivity rate is 7.1% taking out a bundle of tests at 8% would lower the positivity rate.

not really - what he's saying is that you'll probably still get most of the positives (if they develop symptoms - big if).... but you'll miss out on the 92% of the contacts that don't test positive - so you'll only catch positives thus increasing the rate...

how linear those population samples are if questionable given we can't predict peoples behaviour or what % are symptomatic.

MerlinSouthDub

Longing wrote: »

Half the cases are from 0-24 years.

38% of them actually. 33% of the population are aged 0-24.

Turtwig

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It's my understanding that the positivity rate among close contacts in the community is around 8%. If the total positivity rate is 7.1% taking out a bundle of tests at 8% would lower the positivity rate.

That makes sense. If I understand you right you're saying contact tracing leads to tests with a higher chance of being positive. As such when these are removed a larger proportion of tests with a greater chance of not being positive are now left in your sample. Potentially skewing the positivity rate downward.

Widdensushi

Mark1916 wrote: »

Let’s look at some numbers.

On 3rd April in Italy they’d 4,068 people in ICU, 4,585 new cases, 766 deaths and 1,480 recoveries and they tested 38,617 people.

On 21st October they’d 926 in ICU, 15,199 new cases, 127 deaths, 2,369 recoveries and 177,848 people tested.

While case numbers have indeed increased over this past while, they have increased their ICU capacity, made masks mandatory outside and have now put in Curfews in the largest areas plus the capacity they’re able to test now is outstanding. Just interested in looking at the numbers behind these things.

I don't know what they have done with icu but they have 12 times our population and did 11 times our testing today so a similar rate of tests.

Jenna James

Blondini wrote: »

Amazing the numbers of cases that are found when you actually test the school population.

Asymptomatic children passing it in to Granny all over the country.

Foolish to think otherwise.

Schools are driving a lot of cases.

How long will it take for this to be acknowledged and acted upon.

Saving face is ever a priority.

Appalling.

caveat emptor

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Holy moly, almost triple their original April peak.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1318945513425821697?s=20

And 26K in the UK

I think the environment is confusing like for like comparisons. i.e cold and not humid or very humid makes it much more virulent. All calculations should be taken in this context.