Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Funsterdelux

Blondini wrote: »

Amazing the numbers of cases that are found when you actually test the school population.

Asymptomatic children passing it in to Granny all over the country.

Foolish to think otherwise.

Schools are driving a lot of cases.

Show us the data!

One swallow doesnt gather moss

CIARAN_BOYLE

Derek Zoolander wrote: »

not really - what he's saying is that you'll probably still get most of the positives (if they develop symptoms - big if).... but you'll miss out on the 92% of the contacts that don't test positive - so you'll only catch positives thus increasing the rate...

how linear those population samples are if questionable given we can't predict peoples behaviour or what % are symptomatic.

We will proably going to get the cases but a little later.

The swab numbers over the last few days were low. The positivity was down and this pool wasn't being tested.

cnocbui

I am seriously tempted to go to a couple of local supermarkets and take a few photos at lunch time of the social distancing the pupils of the nearby secondary schools engage in. It's closer to 20cm than 200 with no masks of course.

Blondini

Jenna James wrote: »

How long will it take for this to be acknowledged and acted upon.

Saving face is ever a priority.

Appalling.

On this thread by certain "experts" ?

Never.

Funsterdelux

caveat emptor wrote: »

I think the environment is confusing like for like comparisons. i.e cold and not humid or very humid makes it much more virulent. All calculations should be taken in this context.

Maybe the cases could be announced with the weather forecast?

Would be interesting to see if theres variations in cases with varying weather conditions

I Am The Law

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Show us the data!

One swallow doesnt gather moss

Having said that, there's no smoke without daggers.

Blondini

I Am The Law wrote: »

Having said that, there's no smoke without daggers.

A rolling untested stone gathers no swabs.

UrbanFret

Stheno wrote: »

The Cavan numbers are horrific

An early attempt at herd especially the upper end of it.
Wan the Breffni.

fly_agaric

seamus wrote: »

Apparently this "do the tracing yourself" initiative is a temporary thing.

It's probably a form of amnesty; a realisation that if they don't do this, then the entire system will be backlogged by a week or more. So better to let this 2,000 effectively fall through the cracks rather than incur delays in the next 10,000.

If the HSE is to be believed, they're back on top of the case load.

Big "If".

Well if the restrictions work and numbers [of cases] go down (combined with extra staff etc) they can get back on top of the job...if numbers go the other way (lets hope not) it will be least of the HSEs worries unfortunately!

Funsterdelux

UrbanFret wrote: »

An early attempt at herd especially the upper end of it.
Wan the Breffni.

Its called drift or drove immunity in Cavan

Blondini

Blondini wrote: »

Amazing the numbers of cases that are found when you actually test the school population.

Asymptomatic children passing it in to Granny all over the country.

Foolish to think otherwise.

Schools are driving a lot of cases.

When all this comes to light beyond any doubt, there will be all amount of expert excuses spouted out along the lines of "there was no substantial evidence at the time".

Wombatman

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Show us the data!

One swallow doesnt gather moss

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1021/1173019-coronavirus-schools-figures/

prunudo

Wombatman wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1021/1173019-coronavirus-schools-figures/

And thats only the ones they know about or are admitting too.

Eod100

Thought was was fairly poor response from HSE lead for contact tracing on rte news there. Issue isn't that people are getting a text instead of a call, it's having positive cases doing their own contact tracing.

Pete_Cavan

Blondini wrote: »

Asymptomatic children passing it in to Granny all over the country.

They should be kept away from Granny regardless, no point in waiting until they get a positive test (if ever), Granny will have it by then.

froog

i mean where did people think "community transmission" was coming from? supermarkets? puddles of covid on the pavement?

AlphaDelta1

Not the schools, no siree Bob.


Move along.....

Funsterdelux

Wombatman wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1021/1173019-coronavirus-schools-figures/

I need raw hard data, sure they probably got it at home.

niamh247

The number of weekly Covid outbreaks recorded in schools doubled again last week, according to latest data from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC).

There were 46 outbreaks in the week-ending October 17 - last Saturday - compared with 25 the previous week.

The figures for the week-ending October 10 were, itself, a doubling of 12, 13, 11 and 12 in each of the preceding four weeks.

It brings the total since term began to 119, out of 4,000 primary and post-primary schools.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/education/covid-outbreaks-in-schools-doubled-again-last-week-39651863.html

My own personal opinion is that the schools are now the main drivers, and have been fairly significantly responsible for the second wave all around, and that the new restrictions will indeed slow down the increase a lot but not stop it altogether. We'll remain on top of a wavering and maybe slightly rising plateau, which, if/when schools close, and all else being still equal, we will see a significant decrease.

Sadly this is hugely problematic for society and I, for one, can't see any good solutions to both stabilise the virus and make fairly ordinary living workable. It's a cr@p situation.

Eod100

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Show us the data!

One swallow doesnt gather moss

If the issue is that potential close contacts aren't being identified in schools because they're in different pods in a classroom, the numbers being tested and then testing positive would be reduced.

I guess issue is that close contact will have to self-isolate for 14 days so negative test won't free them from that either way. But test would pick up if others were already infected. Maybe rapid tests the way to go there if they can be rolled out.

speckle

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Maybe the cases could be announced with the weather forecast?

Would be interesting to see if theres variations in cases with varying weather conditions

I was about to post the same question on the weather thread, dublin always gets colder in autum before the southwest. Did the dublin rate change with weather versus eg kerry/west cork as winter cold hits there later. also up to a half hour differerence in light. I know correlation v causation. And what about humidty extremes?Any weather people on here?

Allinall

Hqrry113 wrote: »

130 million people at risk of starvation in the world and what are we worried about?

A few 80 year olds in nursing homes already half dead dying from corona, half of which would also probably die if they caught the flu.

What have you done to help the 130 million?

Jim_Hodge

Hqrry113 wrote: »

130 million people at risk of starvation in the world and what are we worried about?

A few 80 year olds in nursing homes already half dead dying from corona, half of which would also probably die if they caught the flu.

Aren't you a caring soul!

fly_agaric

Turtwig wrote: »

If tracing is missing cases then would you not expect positivity rate to have an upward bias?

Don't know enough about the tracing mechanics though. This is purely intuition that may be very flawed.

That sounds reasonable also. I suppose there are a few factors going into % positive, the virus spread, the population "mix" being tested (close contacts, people with symptoms, those being tested for work, people having an operation or something etc.) and the testing capacity itself so its probably hard to be certain of anything just looking at that one figure in ignorance of what else is going on.

oceanman

hard to see how the schools will reopen after the october break.

Allinall

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Aren't you a caring soul!

A caring troll, more like.

Funsterdelux

speckle wrote: »

I was about to post the same question on the weather thread, dublin always gets colder in autum before the southwest. Did the dublin rate change with weather versus eg kerry/west cork as winter cold hits there later. also up to a half hour differerence in light. I know correlation v causation. And what about humidty extremes?Any weather people on here?

Weather forum would be a better bet I'd say. I dunno if Ireland's humidity esp. would flucuate much across the country. No harm in finding out

MerlinSouthDub

oceanman wrote: »

hard to see how the schools will reopen after the october break.

Why so? The level of infection in school children is far below the general population, and way below young adults.

babybuilder

Hqrry113 wrote: »

130 million people at risk of starvation in the world and what are we worried about?

A few 80 year olds in nursing homes already half dead dying from corona, half of which would also probably die if they caught the flu.

If you need help yourself in getting to the after-life there shouldn't be any shortage of volunteers here to send you on your way.

political analyst

Deleted User wrote: »

My own personal opinion is that the schools are now the main drivers, and have been fairly significantly responsible for the second wave all around, and that the new restrictions will indeed slow down the increase a lot but not stop it altogether. We'll remain on top of a wavering and maybe slightly rising plateau, which, if/when schools close, and all else being still equal, we will see a significant decrease.

Sadly this is hugely problematic for society and I, for one, can't see any good solutions to both stabilise the virus and make fairly ordinary living workable. It's a cr@p situation.

But having the schools open means that children are not hanging around in public spaces and thus reduces the spread of the virus, doesn't it?

manniot2

Hqrry113 wrote: »

130 million people at risk of starvation in the world and what are we worried about?

A few 80 year olds in nursing homes already half dead dying from corona, half of which would also probably die if they caught the flu.

You will be hammered for this but the jist of your point is true. The damage of these lockdowns will prove to far outweigh any benefit. Unfortunately some people think we are talking about the pubs being closed or something else when we talk about damage.

babybuilder

political analyst wrote: »

But having the schools open means that children are not hanging around in public spaces and thus reduces the spread of the virus, doesn't it?

They have owners to mind them.

Hqrry113

Allinall wrote: »

A caring troll, more like.

Not even trolling tbh I'm just saying it's like everyone just needs something to worry about in their boring little lives it's a joke tbh watching everyone go on like they're an academic on Covid

seamus

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Its called drift or drove immunity in Cavan

I'm surprised so many people in Cavan were willing to donate their mucus without being paid.

Sephiroth_dude

Hqrry113 wrote: »

130 million people at risk of starvation in the world and what are we worried about?

A few 80 year olds in nursing homes already half dead dying from corona, half of which would also probably die if they caught the flu.

Mod

Don't post in this thread again.

Zebra3

babybuilder wrote: »

If you need help yourself in getting to the after-life there shouldn't be any shortage of volunteers here to send you on your way.

Offering someone help to die.

Classy.

batman_oh

polesheep wrote: »

You must have been stalking them.

I was waiting in the car outside the Chinese for my order you weirdo.

JP100

political analyst wrote: »

But having the schools open means that children are not hanging around in public spaces and thus reduces the spread of the virus, doesn't it?

Are kids not hanging around public places after school anyways! See the usual flow of secondary school students in groups piling in and out of subway each day after school in a lot of towns all over Ireland.

political analyst

The lockdown is depriving many small and medium enterprise (SME) owners of their livelihoods even though they are not responsible for other people's failure to adhere to social distancing. Isn't that like exterminating the population of a village in retaliation for the killing of soldiers by insurgents?

political analyst

JP100 wrote: »

Are kids not hanging around public places after school anyways! See the usual flow of secondary school students in groups piling in and out of subway each day after school in a lot of towns all over Ireland.

On school days, they're not hanging around for as long as they do during the holidays.

cnocbui

political analyst wrote: »

But having the schools open means that children are not hanging around in public spaces and thus reduces the spread of the virus, doesn't it?

And I thought innocence was lost to the world.

Gruffalux

political analyst wrote: »

The lockdown is depriving many small and medium enterprise (SME) owners of their livelihoods even though they are not responsible for other people's failure to adhere to social distancing. Isn't that like exterminating the population of a village in retaliation for the killing of soldiers by insurgents?

Spot on! Exactly the same.

Plumbthedepths

political analyst wrote: »

The lockdown is depriving many small and medium enterprise (SME) owners of their livelihoods even though they are not responsible for other people's failure to adhere to social distancing. Isn't that like exterminating the population of a village in retaliation for the killing of soldiers by insurgents?

Collective punishment?
Incedently I watched a segment on the news tonight, not by choice btw. I noticed the shoe shop was closing due to restrictions yet I noticed behind him he had workboots on the shelf behind him as he spoke to the cameras. The selling of PPE is classed as essential retail he could have remained open under the new restrictions.

D9Male

Hqrry113 wrote: »

130 million people at risk of starvation in the world and what are we worried about?

A few 80 year olds in nursing homes already half dead dying from corona, half of which would also probably die if they caught the flu.

I suspect you know this already, but here goes.

Coronavirus is around 8-10 times more deadly than the common flu. The WHO estimate an IFR of around 0.6%. This is high but not as high as was initially feared.

It is also a health system killer. Sure, most people aged 70 and under will recover without the need for hospitalisation. But left unchecked for a couple of months, we will see scenes like we saw in Northern Italy and New York in the spring. Refrigerator trucks, were used as makeshift morgues. Ships and the lawns of Central Park were converted into hospitals. Countries around the world were running out of ventilators.

I don't understand how obtuse people can be. So we take preventative measures to avoid this, and people think the absence of bodies piled up on the streets means these measures were wrong.

We have a good health system by world standards, but not best in class. So if the hospitals get overrun with Covid19 patients, not only will lots die from the virus, but it will compromise the ability of people like you and I to get proper treatment if we get sick from coronavirus or something else.

Debate the merits of lockdown stategies all you want, but your trite post completely minimises the potential impacts of an unchecked Covid19 increase in Ireland.

xvril

It is lies that it isnt spreading in schools. Speaking to track and trace today the man told me the vast majority of his calls this week are traced back to schools.

is_that_so

xvril wrote: »

It is lies that it isnt spreading in schools. Speaking to track and trace today the man told me the vast majority of his calls this week are traced back to schools.

Yeah, but that doesn't mean cases. It's already been noted that kids have loadsa possible close contacts.

Funsterdelux

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Collective punishment?
Incedently I watched a segment on the news tonight, not by choice btw. I noticed the shoe shop was closing due to restrictions yet I noticed behind him he had workboots on the shelf behind him as he spoke to the cameras. The selling of PPE is classed as essential retail he could have remained open under the new restrictions.

Theres a job there for you, covid diversify consultant!

Would made a great logo on the van

CDC

spookwoman

Plumbthedepths

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Theres a job there for you, covid diversify consultant!

Would made a great logo on the van

CDC

Already gainfully employed, part of my job requirement is problem solving. As I said I heard the guys problem the solution was on the shelf behind him.