Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

seamus

Turtwig wrote: »

Why up?
Tests of close contacts are presumably more likely to have positive tests. If these are omitted then if everything else remains more or less the same are you not introducing a bias to tests being less positive than previously?

Because outside of close contacts the only other random people being tested are symptomatic. Who are way more likely to test positive.

So, for example, tomorrow you have 10,000 people who turn up for a test they're a close contact. 1,000 of them test positive (I think 1 in 10 is the official statistic).

You also have 5,000 people turn up because they're symptomatic. 750 of them test positive.

Positivity for the day = 1,750 = 11.7%

If the 10,000 close contacts don't turn up, then your positivity for the day is 750/5000 = 15%

But like I say, mass testing can fluff this. Replace those 5,000 symptomatic with 5,000 in a mass test, and perhaps 200 of them will test positive.

Now without your close contacts, your positivity rate is 4%

Every day is a mixture of symptomatic referrals, close contacts and mass tests.

So on balance we shouldn't really see a major impact from one isolated set of close contacts being missed, especially when we're testing 120,000 people in a week.

manniot2

manniot2 wrote: »

Could we put 20b into protecting the nursing homes instead of locking up healthy people? At some stage we will have to just consider doing this.

Who looks after all the sick people in hospital when all the people who work in hospital are off sick with covid/long covid or self isolating?

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319293607015108610?s=20

And are they gonna do something about it?

manniot2

Deleted User wrote: »

Who looks after all the sick people in hospital when all the people who work in hospital are off sick with covid/long covid or self isolating?

Well the 20b would go towards that also. Protect the vulnerable/front line.

SleetAndSnow

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319293607015108610?s=20

And are they gonna do something about it?

What if you have a sports shop that always sold PPE?

circadian

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319293607015108610?s=20

And are they gonna do something about it?

Has a prominent football club and sports chain owner written all over it.

circadian

manniot2 wrote: »

Well the 20b would go towards that also. Protect the vulnerable/front line.

Amazing detailed plan, off ye go to the Oireachtas with that.

AdamD

Retail should never have closed

Funsterdelux

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319293607015108610?s=20

And are they gonna do something about it?

A preemptive strongly worded email?

manniot2

circadian wrote: »

Amazing detailed plan, off ye go to the Oireachtas with that.

christ, when the alternative is closing the country, I cant see how you can be so flippant.

rovers_runner

rovers_runner wrote: »

The next two weeks are critical...

Unfortunately, it looks like the last two weeks were critical and we should have listened to NPHET.

Beanybabog

fits wrote: »

Is he very sick?. Hope you all get over it quickly.

He's actually not. Couple days of a cough and headache and is fine. I can see why people miss it - if there was no test done we would have said no way was it Covid. People keep saying oh week 2 is terrible but right now he feels great

boetstark

manniot2 wrote: »

Could we put 20b into protecting the nursing homes instead of locking up healthy people? At some stage we will have to just consider doing this.

Locked up my ass. Lockdown in name only

stephenjmcd

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319293607015108610?s=20

And are they gonna do something about it?

Absolutely nothing.

Don't blame places trying to stay open either, a joke that retail was given the restrictions its been given

froog

can't blame someone trying to save their business and jobs tbh. there is little risk with retail stores anyway. not a fan of naming and shaming them either.

Eod100

France, Netherlands, Belgium all in a bad way. Might be glad of these restrictions yet.

SleetAndSnow

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Absolutely nothing.

Don't blame places trying to stay open either, a joke that retail was given the restrictions its been given

I don't either, but its very unfair on businesses that are complying while also trying to stay afloat when bigger stores just don't care.

Strumms

quokula wrote: »

Pretty sure paying for and owning human beings as if they're objects has been frowned upon for a few hundred years now.

No..I’m pretty sure that contracts that enable an agreement between two parties to be binding has NOT been frowned upon for, well forever.

I sign for Manchester United tomorrow, have a row with the boss on Monday, hate my teammates... I can’t walk, I’m under contract. Same should apply in medical terms here, especially when circa 300,000 grand is being shelled out for you by the public... you ‘can’ go but you owe the investment in you back to who paid for it, the people of this country.

Be in a lot healthier state re: covid if we had this.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Strumms wrote: »

No..I’m pretty sure that contracts that enable an agreement between two parties to be binding has NOT been frowned upon for, well forever.

I sign for Manchester United tomorrow, have a row with the boss on Monday, hate my teammates... I can’t walk, I’m under contract. Same should apply in medical terms here, especially when circa 300,000 grand is being shelled out for you by the public... you ‘can’ go but you owe the investment in you back to who paid for it, the people of this country.

Be in a lot healthier state re: covid if we had this.

No we wouldn't. We would have hired a lot of Irish doctors and not hired a lot of foreign doctors but I believe the total doctor number would be similar.

niallo27

Eod100 wrote: »

France, Netherlands, Belgium all in a bad way. Might be glad of these restrictions yet.

Let me guess, their hospitals are 2 weeks from getting overwhelmed.

s1ippy

Taoiseach says he is opposed to curfews as a way of controlling Covid-19 (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-says-he-is-opposed-to-curfews-as-a-way-of-controlling-covid-19-1.4388352

He's "not really a curfew type" of Taoiseach.

It's a shame he's not really a "support the airport in your home county staying open" type, seeing as there are a staggering number of job losses taking place there in the coming days. I only know one person working there, he's been there over a decade and his job is gone. He said it's being decimated.

normanoffside

niallo27 wrote: »

Let me guess, their hospitals are 2 weeks from getting overwhelmed.

The next two weeks are critical in France, The Netherlands and Belgium.

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1319221942797373445?s=20

Hopefully she will make a full recovery. Looks like she is stable according to the article, but 1 in 4 in Brussels test positive. Bad situation there

bennyl10

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Thats good.... Right?

Lower % positive because more tests are done

But more actual positives

daydorunrun

Deleted User wrote: »

What if you have a sports shop that always sold PPE?

Yeah, shin pads we're PPE even before we knew what PPE was!

Busi_Girl08

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319293607015108610?s=20

And are they gonna do something about it?

They're "strongly urge such businesses to do the right thing.":rolleyes:

bennyl10

US2 wrote: »

Great to see the numbers decline. Level 3 restrictions kicking in now

Actual case numbers didn’t decline though

Positive rate did, becuase we did more tests

GeorgeBailey

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

I agree. This government will mostly likely be seen as the worst in modern times.

How many governments DON'T get declared the worst in modern times at the time they're in government?

Jim_Hodge

niallo27 wrote: »

Let me guess, their hospitals are 2 weeks from getting overwhelmed.

Probably closer than that.

All hospital beds for patients with the coronavirus in and around Brussels are full already, with the University Hospital (UZ) even transferring patients to a hospital outside the Region.

“With a few exceptions, all the beds in Brussels and the surrounding area provided for coronavirus patients are already full,” Dirk Devroey, dean at the Faculty of Medicine of the VUB told VRT on Saturday. “Plans are being rolled out in all hospitals to free up hospital rooms for coronavirus patients.”

Hospital admissions for Covid-19 have risen steadily since July 30, when just 80 people were being treated for Covid-19. The exponential increase prompted Medical Care Minister Tamara van Ark to again ask for Germany's help in treating patients from the Netherlands in intensive care.

Funsterdelux

daydorunrun wrote: »

Yeah, shin pads we're PPE even before we knew what PPE was!

Well if its a certain sports shop we're talking about, we wont name it directly

Theyve sold PPE for years, boots, pants, hi vis etc.

MerlinSouthDub

bennyl10 wrote: »

Actual case numbers didn’t decline though

Positive rate did, becuase we did more tests

Actual case numbers are stable though. It does show that level 3 applied nationwide is enough to keep the Reproductive rate at 1. Mind you, there is still merit in moving to level 5 as it allows us reduce numbers, and might give scope to reopening bars/restaurants for a period. Interested in Philip Nolan's modelling tonight - it should be showing an R moving down to 1.

Turtwig

normanoffside wrote: »

The next two weeks are critical in France, The Netherlands and Belgium.

Belgium has one of the highest death rates per capita at the moment. So, yeah, their situation is really critical. It has potential to get a whole lot worse. Two weeks? Every day for them becomes hugely significant.

bennyl10

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Actual case numbers are stable though. It does show that level 3 applied nationwide is enough to keep the Reproductive rate at 1. Mind you, there is still merit in moving to level 5 as it allows us reduce numbers, and might give scope to reopening bars/restaurants for a period. Interested in Philip Nolan's modelling tonight - it should be showing an R moving down to 1.

yes we need t below 1 though, to achieve some sense of normality again

if all we want is stability and smallish growth, then 3 is fine

polesheep

Hellrazer wrote: »

Theres a serious lack of compliance out there - its actually quite funny seeing all the "essential" shops open just because they sell a face mask or hand sanitizer.

However I did predict that compliance in level 5 restrictions would not be adhered to. One day in and its like theres no lock down at all!!!!

Our idiot over lords havent got it wrong again have they??

It wouldnt be the first time - case tracing failures,failure to plan for a second wave, Golfgate, 2 ministers resigning,U turns every couple of weeks, a taoiseach that doesnt even know how to speak in public (maybe hes retarded or something), A Tanaiste who just plays populist politics, a health minister who doesnt know whats going on in his department.

If i did half the **** ups this lot did Id be sacked on the spot.

These are the biggest joke of a government I have ever seen in my life.

What does it take for the electorate to call for their heads??

They just need to call a GE and get on with letting someone with half a brain manage the country and pandemic.

Apparently footfall is very low in Dublin city centre. Some shops that are now open might close if there aren't enough customers to make it worthwhile. Outside of the city centre might be different.

MOR316

Teflon Tony will be getting ready for his close up right about now

suicide_circus

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1319221942797373445?s=20

Hopefully she will make a full recovery. Looks like she is stable according to the article, but 1 in 4 in Brussels test positive. Bad situation there

All the best to the lady but why do we like talking about the rarities but we dont like talking about the overwhelming patterns?

BorneTobyWilde

Level no one cares 5

Seems to me everyone and anyone is still open, no change. It's no where near Level 5 out there

manniot2

MOR316 wrote: »

Teflon Tony will be getting ready for his close up right about now

I wonder when will he release his book?

Widdensushi

bennyl10 wrote: »

Actual case numbers didn’t decline though

Positive rate did, becuase we did more tests

Not correct, the day we did the most tests was one of, if not the highest positivity rate

polesheep

odyssey06 wrote: »

fwiw I'm Irish and I think if your training was paid for by the State, you should have to work X years in the health service, either public or private (where your taxes will be paying it back). When you consider the cost of training a doctor, it's not sustainable at the moment.

I think this happens in Canada and Australia.
If you don't want the strings, pay for the training yourself.

And will you apply that to every person who receives training/education paid for by the state?

SleetAndSnow

suicide_circus wrote: »

All the best to the lady but why do we like talking about the rarities but we dont like talking about the overwhelming patterns?

Think its fairly important since she was leading the covid response in belgium and is fairly high up in the country. Not due to her being 45

suicide_circus

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Level no one cares 5

Seems to me everyone and anyone is still open, no change. It's no where near Level 5 out there

This lockdown is very loosey goosey

suicide_circus

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Think its fairly important since she was leading the covid response in belgium and is fairly high up in the country. Not due to her being 45

Fair enough

Golfman64

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Level no one cares 5

Seems to me everyone and anyone is still open, no change. It's no where near Level 5 out there

Except golf courses and tennis courts, cause you know, they are lethal!!!

OscarMIlde

Deleted User wrote: »

Today is a bad day in the hospital. Frightening how much staff are off through close contacts/positive tests. Currently trying to get through to occy health to see if I need to self isolate. ****!

Yep, happened in my lab, which is a fairly small specialised service. Five people were off in our lab isolating as they work closely with a confirmed positive case until they were cleared by Occ health. We all had to try and cover as best we could, but if there are repeat situations it will have a detrimental effect on our service cover. These are the kind of knock on effects of widespread community transmission on hospital services.

OscarMIlde

normanoffside wrote: »

They live together, sleep together so what would them sitting separately on the bus archieve?

It's to minimise the distance between themselves and other passengers.

Wolf359f

Busi_Girl08 wrote: »

They're "strongly urge such businesses to do the right thing.":rolleyes:

Reminds me of homestore and more being able to reopen initially, but they had to close off the non kitchenware section.
So a clothing store staying open, solely to sell PPE sounds reasonable, but obviously they are taking advantage of a loophole.

GooglePlus

Definitely busier in Dublin than it was back in March/April and that was outside of school opening or closing for the day.

I suppose there's a lot more still working with construction and the likes still on. That mixed with fatigue.

US2

bennyl10 wrote: »

Actual case numbers didn’t decline though

Positive rate did, becuase we did more tests

There will be less cases announced this evening than the last few days.

Zebra3

Busi_Girl08 wrote: »

They're "strongly urge such businesses to do the right thing.":rolleyes:

That's nice of them.

"We strongly urge you to shut your business while I keep my full salary and expenses".

We're all in this together!!!!!!!