Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Funsterdelux

awec wrote: »

But in June we were still essentially locked down. Social activities, cafes, restaurants etc didn't come until the very end of June.

Again I don't think it's a fair comparison.

Aye, its just statistical

Underattack

10000maniacs wrote: »

One thing China has is good scientists.
Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology has found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows:

Hardly believe a word out of the CCP's mouth as much as Id like to.

10000maniacs

Underattack wrote: »

Hardly believe a word out of the CCP's mouth as much as Id like to.

Ok Donald. :rolleyes:

440Hertz

MOR316 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/franmcnulty/status/1319400403088400385

If you’re looking for a good Irish one, Ovelle is a very reliable cosmetics company that also makes Elave, the sensitive skin products.

It’s probably not the best idea to buy no name or unheard of brands of sanitisers if you avoid it.

Tesco for example stocks Garnier hand sanitisers too.

Underattack

10000maniacs wrote: »

Ok Donald. :rolleyes:

You blindly believe China?
Ive a bridge to sell you.

10000maniacs

Underattack wrote: »

You blindly believe China?
Ive a bridge to sell you.

I have no reason not to, well the scientists anyway.

WoollyRedHat

majcos wrote: »

Is all tracing not retrospective from the index case?

Cases that had not been contact traced up to two days ago are being left to alert contacts themselves. The system was ‘reset’ so that HSE tracers are dealing with more recent cases. Terrible that they had fallen behind but the idea of a reset is logical.

If they kept trying to deal with backlog and did not catch up with recent cases, the tracers would be spending time with people whose contacts if positive had already exposed their contacts. If catch and trace more recent cases, then there is opportunity to limit the exposure of the contacts to others before that exposure occurs or if positive, while they are still less likely to be infectious.

Yes that would be the goal but it seems we have been massively lagging on this regard. Did a quick search on this and got the following from IT:

www.irishtimes.com/news/health/investment-in-more-detailed-contact-tracing-needed-to-reveal-key-covid-19-trends-1.4360792%3fmode=amp

I think we have used retrospective tracing previously but lost the ability as soon as the case load became unmanageable. At 1,000 cases it becomes much harder to do. The more public health doctors the more manageable it becomes, it's a multidisciplinary effort involved . We need antigen testing in parallel to increase in public health doctors to achieve an effective retrospective tracing programme, with a clear isolation policy but I believe we won't be able to achieve this until cases come down.

Underattack

10000maniacs wrote: »

I have no reason not to, well the scientists anyway.

Dont get me wrong...you already have calling me donald!!

Id love nothing more than those figures to be correct.
Chinese scientists all under the thumb of the party,if not they get suicided.

CalamariFritti

10000maniacs wrote: »

One thing China has is good scientists.
Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology has found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows:

But of course you know that number of confirmed infections and true number of infections are not the same. And that the true number is obviously bigger than the confirmed number. WHO estimates that 10% of the world population have been infected but only 5% of those 10% are actually confirmed. 790m infected. 1m dead. That would make it 0.013% IFR.

The Ioannides numbers (also WHO) that the doctor is quoting go higher as they are based on seroprevalence studies and partial estimates. He goes with 0.05% for < 70s and 0.23% overall.

If you ran the numbers from the HSE reports over the last 3 months you wouldnt even get to your numbers or anywhere near.

Not saying covid is nothing and covid doesnt kill people and not saying we truly know for sure how small or big the numbers really are. But we know its nowhere near any of your numbers. Not even remotely.

10000maniacs

Underattack wrote: »

Dont get me wrong...you already have calling me donald!!

Id love nothing more than those figures to be correct.
Chinese scientists all under the thumb of the party,if not they get suicided.

Science is science. I believe what they have published.
And because of their unique lockdown in the Spring, their figures would be more accurate than most.

Im just wondering if they are using that Virapro in Nursing homes for staff and patients, and if so, could prolonged use of that be making staff and patients more vunerable to Covid?

Wonder will we be told what levels of Methanol where in the product and what if any dangers it has posed to children and teachers in schools.

10000maniacs

CalamariFritti wrote: »

But of course you know that number of confirmed infections and true number of infections are not the same. And that the true number is obviously bigger than the confirmed number. WHO estimates that 10% of the world population have been infected but only 5% of those 10% are actually confirmed. 790m infected. 1m dead. That would make it 0.013% IFR.

The Ioannides numbers that the doctor is quoting go higher as they are based on seroprevalence studies and partial estimates. He goes with 0.05% for < 70s and 0.23% overall.

If you ran the numbers from the HSE reports over the last 3 months you wouldnt even get to your numbers or anywhere near.

Not saying covid is nothing and covid doesnt kill people and not saying we truly know for sure how small or big the numbers really are. But we know its nowhere near any of your numbers. Not even remotely.

But your point is irrelevant, because all of those 72,314 people were infected with the virus.

Sawduck

What's going on up in Dublin, hearing that the guards were attacking people, surely that's lies our country hasn't become America has it

Underattack

Sawduck wrote: »

What's going on up in Dublin, hearing that the guards were attacking people, surely that's lies our country hasn't become America has it

Hardly...guards attacking people with what?..they havent got anything lol

majcos

awec wrote: »

Hasn't there also been changes in how it's treated though? In terms of what drugs are given, but also around putting people on ventilators? Did they not figure that ventilators may actually be detrimental for patients?

Genuine question, not trying to subtly make a point.

If that were the case, then there were likely people who ended up in ICU in April who would not end up in ICU today, given what we've learnt about the best ways to deal with this virus.

None of the treatments have individually made a major impact so far. Most recent HSE guidance document on treatment has advised against use of some of the medications which were used in early phases such as hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and lopinavir/ritonavir.

This guidance lists use of steroids either dexamethasone or hydrocortisone but this would not be something new. Steroids have been used for respiratory illnesses for many years and many physicians would have instinctively tried them in patients with Covid as far back as April.

It also lists remdesivir but the data in this is still very mixed. US FDA have just approved it based on study showing it cut recovery time from 15 days to 10 days but WHO had announced a few days earlier that death rates were not improved with it. WHO data has been critiqued as it pooled data from hundreds of hospitals in over 30 countries so comparison between patients may be flawed.

Tocilizumab listed in HSE guidance as a possibility and it has been used in some patients as far back as April but NEJM study published yesterday with 243 patients did not show a difference in outcomes.

Awareness of the coagulation/clotting increased over the first few weeks so that may have helped a bit as hospitalized sicker patients are put on anticoagulation preemptively although that would be a common measure in sicker hospitalized patients anyway long before Covid.

Spanish Eyes

Underattack wrote: »

Hardly...guards attacking people with what?..they havent got anything lol

The usual rent a mob again...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/nine-charged-following-clashes-between-garda%C3%AD-anti-lockdown-protesters-1.4388742

majcos

awec wrote: »

Hasn't there also been changes in how it's treated though? In terms of what drugs are given, but also around putting people on ventilators? Did they not figure that ventilators may actually be detrimental for patients?

Genuine question, not trying to subtly make a point.

If that were the case, then there were likely people who ended up in ICU in April who would not end up in ICU today, given what we've learnt about the best ways to deal with this virus.

Re ventilation, it would only be used as a last resort when someone is in respiratory failure that hasn’t responded to oxygen so at that point you have nothing to lose as patient is going to die of hypoxia if not ventilated. I doubt anywhere in Ireland was ventilating people too early in April as ICU was already at a critical capacity so only those who really needed ventilation and were not maintaining oxygen levels even with high percentages of oxygen through masks and non invasive ventilation were ventilated.

Underattack

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The usual rent a mob again...

Link not working for me,but i assume you mean the anti mask retards?

majcos

awec wrote: »

But in June we were still essentially locked down. Social activities, cafes, restaurants etc didn't come until the very end of June.

Again I don't think it's a fair comparison.

I think that was the point of the comparison. When things were restricted the chances of catching Covid dropped very low because of the restrictions with a 14 day incidence rate of 3 per 100,000 but now NPHET see a reason to recommend increasing restrictions again as chances of catching it are much higher with the 14 day incidence rate of 302 per 100,000.

Spanish Eyes

Underattack wrote: »

Link not working for me,but i assume you mean the anti mask retards?

Gemma's luvvies. See the Gemma thread for very satisfying feeds of the Gardai having a go at these lunatics on Grafton Street tonight. We need to be saved from them! Substances involved or other issues in their heads. Who the feck would be bothered with this kind of nonsense. But there's nowt quare as folk I suppose.

stephenjmcd

Underattack wrote: »

Link not working for me,but i assume you mean the anti mask retards?

Yeah anti mask / anti lockdown whatever they've called themselves this week. They were blocking roads around the city and then tried to block the roads at the port and were met by Gardai so they then walked back into town and again blocked from Kildare Street by Gardai, a few of them ended up on Grafton street and decided to have a go at the Gardai.
Public order unit got involved along with regular officers, few videos going around, safe to say the Gardai got a good few digs in.

Anyway 9 charged

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/nine-people-due-in-court-and-two-cautioned-after-gardai-forced-to-intervene-during-anti-lockdown-protest-in-dublin-39657380.html

Underattack

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Gemma's luvvies. See the Gemma thread for very satisfying feeds of the Gardai having a go at these lunatics on Grafton Street tonight. We need to be saved from them! Substances involved or other issues in their heads. Who the feck would be bothered with this kind of nonsense. But there's nowt quare as folk I suppose.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah anti mask / anti lockdown whatever they've called themselves this week. They were blocking roads around the city and then tried to block the roads at the port and were met by Gardai so they then walked back into town and again blocked from Kildare Street by Gardai, a few of them ended up on Grafton street and decided to have a go at the Gardai.
Public order unit got involved along with regular officers, few videos going around, safe to say the Gardai got a good few digs in.

Anyway 9 charged

Not keen on the lockdown myself but yeh them clowns need a few slaps of the baton to soften their cough

Kickstart1.3

We`re the clowns.

stephenjmcd

Underattack wrote: »

Not keen on the lockdown myself but yeh them clowns need a few slaps of the baton to soften their cough

Decent video there of the Gardai getting a few slaps in

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=649137669126024&id=100020893912279

Underattack

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Decent video there of the Gardai getting a few slaps in

Filmed on a potato.

Roger_007

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Decent video there of the Gardai getting a few slaps in

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=649137669126024&id=100020893912279

How many bicycles were arrested?

stephenjmcd

Underattack wrote: »

Filmed on a potato.

Can still make out one of the public order lads getting a knee into one of them a few times

perrito caliente

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Can still make out one of the public order lads getting a knee into one of them a few times

You're a sad little man Stephen. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the protest, you're a very sad little man.

Underattack

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Can still make out one of the public order lads getting a knee into one of them a few times

Im all for peaceful protest but start acting up,well what do ya expect?

perrito caliente

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Can still make out one of the public order lads getting a knee into one of them a few times

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Decent video there of the Gardai getting a few slaps in

You're a sad little man Stephen. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the protest, you're a very sad little man.

Kickstart1.3

perrito caliente wrote: »

You're a sad little man Stephen. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the protest, you're a very sad little man.

It`s better that Stephen keeps wearing his mask and stays indoors

Underattack

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

It`s better that Stephen keeps wearing his mask and stays indoors

Could he not wear it and still protest peacefully?

Roger_007

I’m really looking forward to the Real/Continuity IRA staging an anti-mask protest?

bb1234567

niallo27 wrote: »

Are restaurants and retail shut in France. Can they travel over 5k.

And maybe they can cope with the cases that come with those lighter restrictions. 2000 hospitalised in France today, our hospitals would already be overwhelmed with the level of cases in France

Underattack

bb1234567 wrote: »

And maybe they can cope with the cases that come with those lighter restrictions. 2000 hospitalised in France today, our hospitals would already be overwhelmed with the level of cases in France

That means nothing,we dont have Frances population

bb1234567

Underattack wrote: »

That means nothing,we dont have Frances population

Oh for gods sake of course I meant per capita.

2000 hospitalisations is over 150 hospitalised in a day here in our population which is absolutely huge

Kickstart1.3

2000 out of 68 million.

How many hospitalised from other diseases?

CalamariFritti

10000maniacs wrote: »

But your point is irrelevant, because all of those 72,314 people were infected with the virus.

What the WHO are saying is that there wasn't just 79k infected. There was 79k that they know about. But thats not the true number. The true number is more like 790k or even 1.5m. And then your fatality percentages are much much smaller consequently.

Underattack

bb1234567 wrote: »

Oh for gods sake of course I meant per capita.

2000 hospitalisations is over 150 hospitalised in a day here in our population which is absolutely huge

Then blame the government for not preparing our health service...we shouldnt have to suffer for our "leaders" incompetence

Kickstart1.3

bb1234567 wrote: »

Oh for gods sake of course I meant per capita.

2000 hospitalisations is over 150 hospitalised in a day here in our population which is absolutely huge

Get a grip. How many people have been hospitalised with other diseases?

bb1234567

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

Get a grip. How many people have been hospitalised with other diseases?

Why don't you tell us seeing as you're the one dismissing all concerns, put our worries at ease

virginmediapls

bb1234567 wrote: »

Oh for gods sake of course I meant per capita.

2000 hospitalisations is over 150 hospitalised in a day here in our population which is absolutely huge

Don't bother engaging these people, no point.

jammiedodgers

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Decent video there of the Gardai getting a few slaps in

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=649137669126024&id=100020893912279

Disgraceful.

I was expecting the Gardai to get a lot more slaps in.

Kickstart1.3

That's not possible as they are not testing or gathering the data.
Just shows the Bollsh1t of the whole thing

10000maniacs

CalamariFritti wrote: »

What the WHO are saying is that there wasn't just 79k infected. There was 79k that they know about. But thats not the true number. The true number is more like 790k or even 1.5m. And then your fatality percentages are much much smaller consequently.

But your point is still irrelevant, because 79k was the sample of infected people that the scientists used to get their figures for their findings. They were all infected, so the sample starting point was the same.

CalamariFritti

10000maniacs wrote: »

But your point is still irrelevant, because 79k was the sample of infected people that the scientists used to get their figures for their findings. They were all infected, so the sample starting point was the same.

It must be me. Because what you're saying makes no sense to me.

China says China has 80k infected and 4k deaths.

WHO is saying China has 800k (or even 1.5m) infected and 4k deaths.

Easy to not know about infected. Not so easy to overlook deaths. Deaths stays the same.

Edit: I like the username btw. Had an album from them that I loved.

fritzelly

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Decent video there of the Gardai getting a few slaps in

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=649137669126024&id=100020893912279

All for control on gardai powers but sometimes you think hmmm lets just do a Purge hour

bb1234567

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Decent video there of the Gardai getting a few slaps in

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=649137669126024&id=100020893912279

Some set of lungs on those protestors, had to mute it to save my ears! What is going on here? Looks a bit intense, gardai definitely using excessive force in earlier part of the video. Was this today?

PTH2009

JimToken wrote: »

Teachers ,Medics and Nursing Home Staff are dropping out of the system faster than they can be replaced.

We've taken a relatively harmless virus and invented a terrible cure for it

The amount of retirements in the teaching sector is crazy atm

Johnboy1951

Having read almost every post in this thread I felt compelled to post ...

From my point of view the most important numbers are:-

1 the number of deaths occuring during a period, and how that number, in a pandemic, differs from the historical norm of the period.

2. Those requiring ICU .

3. The number requiring hospitalisation.

This link, which was posted earlier, is rather telling ....
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/
(referring to first graph) shows that the number of deaths is not related to the 'confirmed case' number after the initial surge of the pandemic.

Unfortunately it neither shows my number 2 or 3 figures nor does it compare those to historical numbers.

But what it clearly shows is that there is no appreciable increase in deaths attributed to Covid since last May ... the number has flat-lined.
Yet the number of cases has spiked enormously!
There is apparently no corelation between death and the number of cases.

If it is true that the number of deaths is directly proportional to the numbers in ICU, and to the numbers requiring hospitalisation, then there are very serious questions to be asked about why the 'case numbers' are being highlighted in every pronouncement.

I would very much prefer not to die this year (or next for that matter), but according to those graphs and those I have seen which included historical numbers, I have almost the same chance of dying this Winter as I have had in each of the 5 Winters preceeding this.

So, either I am greatly misinterpreting what the graphs show, or there is near zero reason to have any serious restrictions imposed at all - on anyone - except to protect our health system.

I do not recall anything from Gov since this began to indicate there is an intention to increase the capacity of our health service, yet billions of € can be budgeted for other things while the economy is being essentially destroyed.

I would appreciate being told where I am wrong or alternatively if I am correct in my interpretation.

Thanks.