Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Cluedo Monopoly

This lockdown feels very very different to the first one. In terms of general activity, not a lot has changed from earlier in the week.

Loafing Oaf

JimToken wrote: »

It's going to be a media sh1tshow when the vaccines take centre stage

Are they still big?

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319590819645575169?s=20

Boggles

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319590819645575169?s=20

Well if the virus is leveling off.

The scandals are certainly growing exponentially.

MrMusician18

Boggles wrote: »

Germany will always have their house in order.

We are constantly shocked by it, they aren't. That's just how they do things.

I hate this kind of national myths. The German government is just as prone to make mistakes as any other western democracy.
See Willie Brandt Airport.

Gruffalux

All this praise for Germans... while they are really grand etc., they have the largest amount of vocally and actively weird people in a given population that I have ever encountered so far. I have known many and lived there for several years. The may be law abiding but to be anti system or in some way philosophically subversive is almost a requirement. The pictures from the huge anti mask protests there were an example - right wing radical conspirators and left wing extremist Green ecology types marching cheek to jowl roaring the same things.

spookwoman

Boggles wrote: »

Well if the virus is leveling off.

The scandals are certainly growing exponentially.

There was an interview with 2 heads of testing in hospital and some other place awhile back and they said the staff are burnt out, low pay and not enough people. Was bound to happen

Boggles

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

The Germans have elected some very nasty people, one stands out. I don't think anyone of the cohort you listed is comparable.

Sure didn't the bould Dev sign a book of condolence for him.

AdamD

Deleted User wrote: »

Can anyone imagine the likes of Michael Lowry, Healy Rae's or a Mattie McGrath being elected in Germany.

Clearly missed history class

Eod100

System seems to be completely straining now https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319590819645575169?s=19

What Username Guidelines

Eod100 wrote: »

System seems to be completely straining now https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319590819645575169?s=19

Looks like any impact of L3 or L5 will be difficult to gauge with contract tracing collapsing (less contacts tested) followed by less swab analysis. Christ. This will be an interesting few weeks.

manniot2

testing centre is closing. this is good news, keep the numbers of 'cases' down.

Johnboy1951

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

1. Icu numbers and hospital are available on that website you linked. The tab at the top of the screen for icu hospital and testing contains that information.

Thank you.
I do see extra info such as "Confirmed Cases in ICU" but no data other than the number. Am I missing a graphic of the historic data? EDIT: Found further graphs through link further down the page, thanks.

2. We have a horrible system for deaths in this country. First of all it takes time to die of the disease. Then the families theoretically have 3 months to report. I have written to politicians (with no reply) about this issue. The deaths that have been reported recently died in October but not all October deaths have been reported. Its best to think of todays deaths as deaths related to cases a month ago. So we are getting multiple deaths a day related to cases when cases were about 250 a day. In a months time we will probably be reporting around 10-20 deaths a day related to the 1000 cases a day we are experiencing at the moment.

Yes one would expect that due to the illness progression that deaths would reflect infections with a time delay ...... maybe days or even weeks.

But what was striking was the increase in deaths in that graph I referred to, did 'lag' the initial infection curve, but then the death numbers reduced prior to the complete fall off in infections.
It would appear there was some other factor at play to cause this.
A reporting delay alone would not explain it.

It might well be that the most of the exposed vulnerable had died quickly leaving very few vulnerable in the situation, so that the deaths fell off quickly.

One might well believe that this could be repeated into the future, as groupls of vulnerable people become infected (care homes, hospitals and such).

So far, if the really vulnerable are excluded, Covid does not appear (to me) to be appreciably deadly.
For the vulnerable it is yet another factor to be considered in how one lives one's life.

'Be careful out there' (some of us are old enough to remember that reference )

Boggles

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The German government is just as prone to make mistakes as any other western democracy.

Indeed. Every government is prone to mistakes.

Our ones never seem to learn from them though.

Cluedo Monopoly

Boggles wrote: »

Indeed. Every government is prone to mistakes.

Our ones never seem to learn from them though.

Our government is completely in reactive mode. They had the whole summer to plan this 2nd wave out.

The hospitals were an absolutely shambles last November. What did they expect this year?

Worst government in modern times without a doubt.

The INMO have been crying out for help and more capacity for decades. This link from November 2019 is damning.

https://www.inmo.ie/Home/Index/217/13549

2019 has seen the highest number of patients on trolleys in any year since records began – despite it still being November.

“Winter has only just begun and the record is already broken. These statistics are the hallmark of a wildly bureaucratic health service, which is failing staff and patients alike.

“We take no pleasure in having to record these figures for a decade and a half. We know the problem, but we also know the solutions: extra beds in hospitals, safe staffing levels, and more step-down and community care outside of the hospital.

JDD

Surely it's not the number of tests, but the proportion of positives from the number of swabs carried that will tell us whether we are stabilising or not. Therefore the government can't just reduce the number of tests being carried out and then say "oh look, case numbers are falling".

I haven't followed daily swab numbers, or the positivity rate over the past few days. Is there somewhere handy one would find them?

Boggles

JDD wrote: »

Surely it's not the number of tests, but the proportion of positives from the number of swabs carried that will tell us whether we are stabilising or not.

That depends.

Contact tracing has collapsed and GPs are just referring everyone for tests and actual close contacts may not show up or may not be notified, then that would automatically dilute the positivity rate.

See when you have a robust system the perceived trends can be more widely trusted.

When the system is crumbling the headline figures may no longer be accurate.

mandrake04

spookwoman wrote: »

There was an interview with 2 heads of testing in hospital and some other place awhile back and they said the staff are burnt out, low pay and not enough people. Was bound to happen

This was always the real danger with covid, the continuous stress and psychological damage caused by the system being overwhelmed... the worst case scenario is staff having to make decisions who lives and dies like what happened in Italy earlier in the year and the fear of colleagues and family getting sick could possibly affect healthcare workers mental health in the long term and they possibly leave the profession causing bigger problems in the long term.

meanwhile the clowns are continuously fixated by the numbers and average age of those dying.

The wheel has come off. We can only assume that the virus is now rampant in the community and it will take its own course. The country wont be able to manage this.

KrustyUCC

Tony Holohan back for another nice easy state of the nation interview on the Late Late tonight

JimToken

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The wheel has come off. We can only assume that the virus is now rampant in the community and it will take its own course. The country wont be able to manage this.

Come back to us when the wheels come off

Cluedo Monopoly

Deleted User wrote: »

The wheel has come off. We can only assume that the virus is now rampant in the community and it will take its own course. The country wont be able to manage this.

mikekerry

bb1234567 wrote: »

Very strange indeed..almost sounds made up

Take it as you like that's what I heard.
couldn't give a hoot if you think it's made up I'm just taking it from someone else.

Boggles

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Tony Holohan back for another nice easy state of the nation interview on the Late Late tonight

What would like Ryan to ask him that he hasn't been asked in the bi weekly briefings where he takes questions from "journalists" for over 2 hours?

JDD

Boggles wrote: »

That depends.

Contact tracing has collapsed and GPs are just referring everyone for tests and actual close contacts may not show up or may not be notified, then that would automatically dilute the positivity rate.

Well, true. But it might increase the positivity rate also.
Think about it. Say we carry out 10,000 tests a day. 4.000 of those are referred by GPs because they had symptoms. 6,000 are close contacts of positive cases.

I would expect a much higher positivity rate from the GP referrals, because those people actually have symptoms. This was borne out by the first wave, where you could only get a test if you had symptoms, even if you were a close contact. We had a positivity rate of about 15% at the time.

I would expect a lower positivity rate from close contacts, just because most of them are tested before they have enough antigen in their system, and a big proportion of those negative tests don't come back for a second one. Plus the majority of close contacts just didn't catch it.

So if we continue have 4,000 referrals from GPs, and go down to 3,000 close contact tests, our positivity rate should go higher.

I know that's a lot of assumptions though. It could go either way.

Cluedo Monopoly

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Tony Holohan back for another nice easy state of the nation interview on the Late Late tonight

That is a complete nonsense. No need for it.

Tubridy has been a dose all through this. Patronising.

Roger_007

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Tony Holohan back for another nice easy state of the nation interview on the Late Late tonight

Maybe he’s eying up the job of president the next time it comes up. He’s certainly cultivating his celebrity profile.

JimToken

It's looking like a shortage of essential workers is going to cripple us here not covid patients

In our effort to contain the virus we've also mothballed the most essential staff

CIARAN_BOYLE

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Speaking of hospitals on another thread

310 yesterday
31 admissions
24 discharges
311 today

Presuming 6 deaths but it might not be.

There is no use trying to reconcile admissions and discharges with total numbers, there a myriad of factors that make it a fools errand. Maybe there are some people who had covid, have recovered from the virus, but have other issues that need to be addressed, or have lasting impacts of the virus that require them to remain in hospital, but they can now be included with the general hospital population as they are clear of the virus.

Boggles

JDD wrote: »

Well, true. But it might increase the positivity rate also.
Think about it. Say we carry out 10,000 tests a day. 4.000 of those are referred by GPs because they had symptoms. 6,000 are close contacts of positive cases.

I would expect a much higher positivity rate from the GP referrals, because those people actually have symptoms. This was borne out by the first wave, where you could only get a test if you had symptoms, even if you were a close contact. We had a positivity rate of about 15% at the time.

I would expect a lower positivity rate from close contacts, just because most of them are tested before they have enough antigen in their system, and a big proportion of those negative tests don't come back for a second one. Plus the majority of close contacts just didn't catch it.

So if we continue have 4,000 referrals from GPs, and go down to 3,000 close contact tests, our positivity rate should go higher.

I know that's a lot of assumptions though. It could go either way.

GPs don't contact trace.

They have enough to be doing.

normanoffside

Roger_007 wrote: »

Maybe he’s eying up the job of president the next time it comes up. He’s certainly cultivating his celebrity profile.

I've been saying this for months. I have no doubt about it.

JP100

Same hand sanitizer being used in Circle K.

https://www.thejournal.ie/circle-k-virapro-5242704-Oct2020/?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

JDD

Boggles wrote: »

GPs don't contact trace.

They have enough to be doing.

? I wasn't suggesting that GPs contact trace.

There'll be less tests carried out on close contacts if the HSE don't actually make contact with those people. Because of the contact tracing system failing.

GPs just refer people who show up on their doorstep. I know that.

KrustyUCC

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

That is a complete nonsense. No need for it.

Tubridy has been a dose all through this. Patronising.

Yup 100%

Another rallying cry from Tubridy and Holohan incoming

suicide_circus

seamus wrote: »

Tbh at this stage, I'd nearly forgive someone for getting into conspiracy theories.

We've seen The NPHET giving briefings saying things are deteriorating, while displaying graphs that show the opposite. Claims that growth was exponential, when the data for that day showed that it had actually stalled.

For months we had a pattern where the daily cases announced were typically 10-20% lower than the number of positive swabs. Then maybe once a week the "backlog" might get cleared in a big numbers day.

Now this week, just as the numbers start to improve, we've had five solid days where the cases announced, exceeded the number of swabs. In one instance, by 30%.

One would definitely be forgiven for thinking that there's a deliberate drive to make things look as bad as possible to try and scare people into compliance.

There is a fair argument that if they started saying, "Uhh...actually it looks like thing are stabilising", then people might take their eye off the ball. But honesty is still required.

If we see another day where the positivity rate is dropping, but the message is still doom and gloom, then my confidence in NPHET's approach will take quite a hit.

Even Joe Soaps who are a lot less au fait with the figures and methodologies than you clearly are can sniff out skulduggery (even well meaning skulduggery) in public messaging which in my estimation is a bad strategy - breeding fear as a governance method is a dark path;
Fear is the path to the dark side…fear leads to anger…anger leads to hate…hate leads to suffering.

giveitholly

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Can anyone imagine the likes of Michael Lowry, Healy Rae's or a Mattie McGrath being elected in Germany.

Or Richard Boyd Barrett,Brid Smith and Paul Murphy

Johnboy1951

JDD wrote: »

Surely it's not the number of tests, but the proportion of positives from the number of swabs carried that will tell us whether we are stabilising or not. Therefore the government can't just reduce the number of tests being carried out and then say "oh look, case numbers are falling".

I haven't followed daily swab numbers, or the positivity rate over the past few days. Is there somewhere handy one would find them?

It appears to me that it is neither the number of tests or the number of positives that matter at all.
They are just headline figures used to 'warn' us of some danger.
Some have called it scare-mongering.

It seems to be the number of vulnerable people who contract Covid that matters.
While we can know that older age causes greater vulnerability as do certain known underlying ill-health issues, there is probably an unknown number of people who have undiagnosed health issues which make them vulnerable also.
That cannot be reasonably estimated I think, although I am open to correction on that thought.

The most reasonable option we have, it seems to me, is to control the spread of the virus to the extent that our health system can cope with the numbers needing treatment, with the eventual aim of the virus touching the whole population.

No restrictions whatsoever would let the virus go like wild fire and overwhelm our health system.
L5 slows it greatly and is good to help start management of the spread, but is impossible to maintain.

What appears to be needed is a full lockdown for a few weeks, then a step back to less restrictions causing an initial spike in manageable hospitalisations, which would drop again allowing a further lessening of restrictions to allow another spike and fall off and so on. Rinse and repeat.
We are in the unfortunate position that this would take a very long time, because our health system cannot really cope with Winter spikes without Covid, so is unlikely to be able to cope, even badly, if Covid becomes an additional factor in Winter.

A lot of money should have been spent on bolstering our health service capacity during the Summer when the virus was not spreading.
We missed the boat and will have a long, drawn out attempt at managing this as a consequence.

Funsterdelux

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

That is a complete nonsense. No need for it.

Tubridy has been a dose all through this. Patronising.

We've been suffering from "Long Tubridy for far too long.

Funsterdelux

JP100 wrote: »

Same hand sanitizer being used in Circle K.

https://www.thejournal.ie/circle-k-virapro-5242704-Oct2020/?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

They must have some leftover from making biodiesel

Paddygreen

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Yup 100%

Another rallying cry from Tubridy and Holohan incoming

I think Tubridy and Dr Hulahoop are doing a great job reminding people that fun + Covid19 = agonized death. The science is settled. You are now TEN TIMES MORE LIKELY to get the terrifying and deadly death inducing disease than you were in march according to Mr T’s new sidekick, don’t recall her name. I miss Rónán guys, his fifth year nerd persona took the edge of the fear for me. He just wasn’t scary enough, they had to get rid of him.

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

The wheel has come off. We can only assume that the virus is now rampant in the community and it will take its own course. The country wont be able to manage this.

You're overstating this really. We're certainly creaking, but we're far from out of control.

The NVRL only does a proportion of the testing, and it is unavailable this weekend and next weekend.

It's obviously not ideal, but it's not like we won't be doing any testing.

Likewise with the contact tracing.

With case numbers starting to reduce, both of these issues are less of a concern. Squeaky bums for the next week or two, but shouldn't be an issue overall.

It does tell us what we need to work on though in preparation for a third wave.

Boggles

JDD wrote: »

? I wasn't suggesting that GPs contact trace.

There'll be less tests carried out on close contacts if the HSE don't actually make contact with those people. Because of the contact tracing system failing.

GPs just refer people who show up on their doorstep. I know that.

Well that's not what the GPs are saying.

I'll give you an example.

Tom works in factory in his team is 49 other people. 21 other family he has some contact with.

Tom test positive, has to do his contact tracing, tells his boss, boss says fúck it ye are all getting tested, family says fúck it we are all getting tested.

GPs have been told send them all through.

Now in normal times, the public health experts determine only 8 people fit the criteria of close contacts and Séan who Tom had lunch with and failed to contact and was actually infected would have been picked up on.

So in effect you miss cases you increase the volume of tests and dilute the positivity rate.

With such a high positivity rate anyway we are missing cases, with contact tracing collapsing and now the largest test center in Ireland apparently going part time, the headline figures are not longer a reliable indicator of how much disease is in the community.

It's a double edged sword, certain places will be given priority, care homes, etc.

But we are been told it is impossible keep the virus out of these settings with large uncontrolled community transmission.

That's why it is an absolute scandal further compounded by the absolute cabbage who over saw the muppetry getting off the hook by half apologizing and saying he is aiming to get 70% of things right.

Funsterdelux

s1ippy wrote: »

If he's not you, he's definitely Funsterdelux's dark alter ego.


.

Just to confirm
]

HBC08

NIMAN wrote: »

It will take very brave politicians to extend this level 5 beyond 1st December.

I think it would be political suicide.

As for our ability to get the R down to 0.5, I don't think we are going to manage it. Still far too busy on the roads and city centres for that too happen.

I dont think there's a chance of getting the R number to .5.
This lockdown is a bit if a joke,the difference between level 3 and level 5 in reality is the barbers/hairdressers and gyms are closed,that seems to be pretty much it.
The amount of shops ive seen declare themselves essential services is a bit of a farce (I dont blame them by the way)
People (myself included ) will ignore the 5k rule also.All the above combined plus lockdown fatigue,plus the schools staying open plus the 10% of the population who are ****wits in general(see the restrictions thread for example) mean we won't see the R0 num go below 1 by the time this is over in my opinion.
Now despite the rant im staying as positive as possible but also realistic,the next 12 months or so are going to be grim.

E36Ross

Swabs NOT being tested this weekend,

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40069895.html?fbclid=IwAR2hFx2Ar8-d3yDAFm3baFj6rSqRLJauiSci5Fi-TVQxTRkRXr0ANUjU69M

Signore Fancy Pants

I have been in favour of whatever NPHET and the HSE have advised from the start. Lockdown? No problem, restrict movements? No problem, wear a face mask? No problem.

My wife was recently told that someone from her small gym class tested positive for covid. The class was in a small unventilated room for 45 or so minutes.

She rang her GP and the HSE to see if she needs a test. She was told she would be classed as a casual contact and not to get a test.

Fcuk me, 45+ minutes in a small room with someone with covid yet theres no risk....yet I have to put a mask on to go into the shop for 3 minutes.

The inconsistencies are now starting to annoy the cock off me.

funnydoggy

E36Ross wrote: »

Swabs NOT being tested this weekend,

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40069895.html?fbclid=IwAR2hFx2Ar8-d3yDAFm3baFj6rSqRLJauiSci5Fi-TVQxTRkRXr0ANUjU69M

Seriously wtf have they been doing the last six months?!

mikekerry

mikekerry wrote: »

I heard from 3 people that didn't make the test that they got text messages later that day to say they were positive.
strange.

I believe they are given that message, in that the hope that they behave as if positive, but its not the case that they are counted as positive cases, else there would be a massive discrepancy between positive swabs and confirmed cases

s1ippy

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Just to confirm
]

Damn I was sure I had you

is_that_so

E36Ross wrote: »

Swabs NOT being tested this weekend,

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40069895.html?fbclid=IwAR2hFx2Ar8-d3yDAFm3baFj6rSqRLJauiSci5Fi-TVQxTRkRXr0ANUjU69M

Message has always been if you've been tested, self-isolate. It amuses me to imagine MoH Louise O'Reilly facing that challenge.