Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

I believe they are given that message, in that the hope that they behave as if positive, but its not the case that they are counted as positive cases, else there would be a massive discrepancy between positive swabs and confirmed cases

Nevertheless, if what you say is true, telling people that they are positive for Covid without knowing whether they are or not is criminal. To deliberately give someone a false diagnosis! Who knows what affect that could have on people. I sincerely hope that isn't true.

ACitizenErased

Goldrickssan wrote: »

If numbers start dropping now does it mean level 3 actually does work to reduce cases when you're not dealing with a place as populated as Dublin where it just seems to slow growth?

It's quite clear level 3 had an impact on Donegal. I assume it's more to do with population density etc.

Antares35

Heard a snip of some interview with a HSE rep on rte radio the other day. They asked her why the hospitals weren't better prepared since they've had seven months to get ready for a surge and her answer was "well we didn't expect the surge to be so soon". Bull**** Karen, even if the surge was in December there wouldn't be enough beds. They'd say "oh we had them in October when we expected a surge and then it didn't come". Typical HSE fúckery.

Goldrickssan

1252 and 5 deaths in NI

prunudo

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's quite clear level 3 had an impact on Donegal. I assume it's more to do with population density etc.

And if we had proper enforcement throughout Dublins level 3 we probably wouldn't be where we are now either.

MerlinSouthDub

Goldrickssan wrote: »

If numbers start dropping now does it mean level 3 actually does work to reduce cases when you're not dealing with a place as populated as Dublin where it just seems to slow growth?

It now look like level 3 nationwide has brought the reproductive rate to about 1. I think the problem with Dublin was the surge in cases in Meath etc. This was always going to impact Dublin.

Goldrickssan

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It now look like level 3 nationwide has brought the reproductive rate to about 1. I think the problem with Dublin was the surge in cases in Meath etc. This was always going to impact Dublin.

If cases are already (hopefully) starting to slow and maybe drop I'd be hopeful we can put a large dent in the daily rate after 6 weeks.

When we went to lockdown last time cases were still skyrocketing. Seems like we might not be doing too bad right now.

BringBackMick

Even if we had 200 cases tomorrow, theyd push this level 5 on us until December and maybe let us down to level 4

That is the problem with the swift move to 5 with NPHET in charge there is no way out.

They are extremely cautious to the detriment of much of society and we will lose again thanks to giving them such power

Benimar

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It now look like level 3 nationwide has brought the reproductive rate to about 1. I think the problem with Dublin was the surge in cases in Meath etc. This was always going to impact Dublin.

The current estimate of R is 1.3

BringBackMick

Antares35 wrote: »

Heard a snip of some interview with a HSE rep on rte radio the other day. They asked her why the hospitals weren't better prepared since they've had seven months to get ready for a surge and her answer was "well we didn't expect the surge to be so soon". Bull**** Karen, even if the surge was in December there wouldn't be enough beds. They'd say "oh we had them in October when we expected a surge and then it didn't come". Typical HSE fúckery.

It's BS, even without COVID the hospitals would be in dire straits this winter, just like they are every winter

Sofa King Great

People need to calm down about the NVRL closing - according to De Gascun at lunch they only do 600 tests a day which is 3.3% of today's total.

They split the group in to two teams to avoid the whole lot being exposed to Covid - one group is now self isolating

celt262

BringBackMick wrote: »

It's BS, even without COVID the hospitals would be in dire straits this winter, just like they are every winter

And that's for sure.

Widdensushi

At the moment everyone is probably not wrong, three has stabilised the numbers and would probably work with enforcement of the measures, GAA parties etc, the delay in numbers to people getting seriously ill means the hospitals will be under pressure for a few weeks.

seamus

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It now look like level 3 nationwide has brought the reproductive rate to about 1. I think the problem with Dublin was the surge in cases in Meath etc. This was always going to impact Dublin.

Yeah, it looks like changes in levels do work, but on an isolated-county basis maybe not so much. Any change most likely requires the hotspot plus surrounding counties to be restricted.

So the LOK-down worked because it was 3 counties around a hotspot. If we had moved Wicklow, Kildare, Meath & Louth (at least) to level 3 at the same time as Dublin, we'd have probably seen a more sustained impact.

is_that_so

seamus wrote: »

Swab numbers in early today.

17,746 tests, 1038 positive, 5.85% positivity.

7-day positivity rate down to 6.6%.

See that's the instant effect of Level 5 for ya!

MerlinSouthDub

Benimar wrote: »

The current estimate of R is 1.3

Yeah, but he only used data up to Tuesday for that. Three more days of stability since then

Sardonicat

is_that_so wrote: »

See that's the instant effect of Level 5 for ya!

And a few thousand people having to do their own contact tracing.

MerlinSouthDub

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, it looks like changes in levels do work, but on an isolated-county basis maybe not so much. Any change most likely requires the hotspot plus surrounding counties to be restricted.

So the LOK-down worked because it was 3 counties around a hotspot. If we had moved Wicklow, Kildare, Meath & Louth (at least) to level 3 at the same time as Dublin, we'd have probably seen a more sustained impact.

We certainly might have done. Given the amount of people who travel for work into Dublin, Level 3 in Dublin only could never really work (in hindsight!).

hawkwing

CSO updated,
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries14/

1531 deaths with an underlying condition,median age 83
29 with no underlying condition,median age 81

There were 1,417 deaths of people with underlying conditions in the over 65 age group. Of the 129 deaths in the 25-64 age group, 112 had underlying conditions.

In terms of underlying conditions, chronic heart disease was present in 44% of deaths.
**********
No deaths at all in Waterford or Leitrim of any age/condition since this began,whenever that was...

mloc123

Sardonicat wrote: »

And a few thousand people having to do their own contact tracing.

at almost 18,000 tests a day... it seems the weekend contact tracing "drop off" is not evident... Unless they went out and rounded up a few thousands randomers to test to bump up the numbers

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

I believe they are given that message, in that the hope that they behave as if positive, but its not the case that they are counted as positive cases, else there would be a massive discrepancy between positive swabs and confirmed cases

Actually, the more I think about this the more bizarre it becomes. A person who doesn't bother their backside to attend for their test gets a message to say that they are positive and they are expected to believe it? Who the Hell came up with that brainwave? We really are suffering for all the years of cronyism and jobs for the boys.

mloc123

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, it looks like changes in levels do work, but on an isolated-county basis maybe not so much. Any change most likely requires the hotspot plus surrounding counties to be restricted.

Said the same during the LOKdown, to be effective you need to close the bordering counties also... people will travel from Dublin to Kildare for lunch or dinner... less likely to travel to Westmeath or Offaly.

harr

Will we see a back log in numbers because of the closing of the testing lab , Or have they the capacity to test more in other locations?

seamus

mloc123 wrote: »

at almost 18,000 tests a day... it seems the weekend contact tracing "drop off" is not evident... Unless they went out and rounded up a few thousands randomers to test to bump up the numbers

Anecdotally, I'm not sure if the tracing issue is as dire as it appears. The majority of people I've personally known gettng tested because they're a contact, have done so because someone other than the contact trace team has been in touch.

Whether that's an email from work or a text from a mate, it seems - again anecdotally - that many people know they're contact well before the tracing team do.

As someone else mentioned earlier in the thread, this might be unintentionally better because more people are getting tested who would otherwise not have been contacted by the tracing team.

But it's not something to rely on, far from it. Blind luck at best.

hawkwing

hawkwing wrote: »

CSO updated,
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries14/

1531 deaths with an underlying condition,median age 83
29 with no underlying condition,median age 81

There were 1,417 deaths of people with underlying conditions in the over 65 age group. Of the 129 deaths in the 25-64 age group, 112 had underlying conditions.

In terms of underlying conditions, chronic heart disease was present in 44% of deaths.
**********
No deaths at all in Waterford or Leitrim of any age/condition since this began,whenever that was...

Chronic heart disease is probably present in the majority of over 80’s. Doesn’t mean they are about to die. That’s why it’s called chronic, not acute. An uncle of mine lived for years in virtual heart failure before dying at 87, having a a relatively happy last few years

polesheep

polesheep wrote: »

Actually, the more I think about this the more bizarre it becomes. A person who doesn't bother their backside to attend for their test gets a message to say that they are positive and they are expected to believe it? Who the Hell came up with that brainwave? We really are suffering for all the years of cronyism and jobs for the boys.

My point was if they do this, that’s likely why, I find it hard to believe though for the reasons you outline

Amirani

Flappidyflap wrote: »

Think it should be more clear about the NVRL, I think it's ender who actually test the majority of swabs so it's not like those weekends testing will stop. It sounds like a point is been proven, they've probably been screaming out for staff /help and the good will has ended trying to cover everything.

Yeah, Enfer having been doing the majority of community swabs for a while.

mloc123

seamus wrote: »

Anecdotally, I'm not sure if the tracing issue is as dire as it appears. The majority of people I've personally known gettng tested because they're a contact, have done so because someone other than the contact trace team has been in touch.

Whether that's an email from work or a text from a mate, it seems - again anecdotally - that many people know they're contact well before the tracing team do.

As someone else mentioned earlier in the thread, this might be unintentionally better because more people are getting tested who would otherwise not have been contacted by the tracing team.

But it's not something to rely on, far from it. Blind luck at best.

Yes, I think if anything MORE people will end up being tested as contact tracers would have normally ruled a lot of them out as casual contacts and not referred for testing.

is_that_so

Hmm, wonder just how this will work in practice but at least there is a plan.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/basketball/2020/1023/1173482-outdoor-basketball-training-permitted-but-no-passing/

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

My point was if they do this, that’s likely why, I find it hard to believe though for the reasons you outline

Fair enough. I mistakenly took it from your post that it is actually happening. I wish journalists would ask these kind of questions and put all the nonsense that's out there in the bin where it belongs.

eagle eye

Benimar wrote:

The current estimate of R is 1.3

And the target is 0.5.

Long way to go.

polesheep

is_that_so wrote: »

Hmm, wonder just how this will work in practice but at least there is a plan.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/basketball/2020/1023/1173482-outdoor-basketball-training-permitted-but-no-passing/

It reminds me of a couple of lads I played football with. The greedy bastard$ would never pass the ball.

JP Liz V1

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319590819645575169

kwestfan08

hawkwing wrote: »

CSO updated,
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries14/

1531 deaths with an underlying condition,median age 83
29 with no underlying condition,median age 81

There were 1,417 deaths of people with underlying conditions in the over 65 age group. Of the 129 deaths in the 25-64 age group, 112 had underlying conditions.

In terms of underlying conditions, chronic heart disease was present in 44% of deaths.
**********
No deaths at all in Waterford or Leitrim of any age/condition since this began,whenever that was...

So with 1,618 deaths in total and 1,531 having underlying conditions, Covid has only killed 87 "healthy" people.

I get its serious and we should all be taking precautions but at a certain point we have to start coming onto the fact that if you aren't compromised and are under 65 you're overwhelmingly likely to be just fine.

ixoy

kwestfan08 wrote: »

but at a certain point we have to start coming onto the fact that if you aren't compromised and are under 65 you're overwhelmingly likely to be just fine.

Well you're overwhelmingly likely not to die. It doesn't mean there won't be non-fatal complications, which is the bit I'd be more concerned about for my own health.

innuendo141

kwestfan08 wrote: »

So with 1,618 deaths in total and 1,531 having underlying conditions, Covid has only killed 87 "healthy" people.

I get its serious and we should all be taking precautions but at a certain point we have to start coming onto the fact that if you aren't compromised and are under 65 you're overwhelmingly likely to be just fine.

It's beyond me how many times it needs to be explained that while you may be perfectly fine if you are under 65, you are also perfectly fine to pass it on to someone/many over 65.

Sconsey

kwestfan08 wrote: »

So with 1,618 deaths in total and 1,531 having underlying conditions, Covid has only killed 87 "healthy" people.

I get its serious and we should all be taking precautions but at a certain point we have to start coming onto the fact that if you aren't compromised and are under 65 you're overwhelmingly likely to be just fine.

True-ish as long as we keep cases under control. But if the cases get out of hand then the health service gets totally swamped. At that point everyon is at risk...emergency services will be comprimised, urgent treatments will be at risk, etc. That healthy teenager better not get a rumbling appendix because there may not be an operating theatre availble to remove it before ruptures.

growleaves

is_that_so wrote: »

Hmm, wonder just how this will work in practice but at least there is a plan.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/basketball/2020/1023/1173482-outdoor-basketball-training-permitted-but-no-passing/

Its the people of Ireland who are being dunked on.

Ce he sin

Will Yam wrote: »

I think there is an element here of lies, damn lies and statistics.

You can spin stats either way.

For example, RTE reported as a headline last evening that cases per 100,000 had reached 300+ over last 14 days (TRUE).

But cases declined by 8% two days ago, and by a further 8% yesterday. Yesterday’s figures were 16% lower than 2 days ago with drops of over 100 each day. (Dublin was also down yesterday by 7%).

So if I want to disseminate bad news, i say cases have reached 300+.

If i want to disseminate good news i say there are encouraging signs emerging recently, with drops of 8% each day.

And in todays I Times we are told that cutting cases by 100 a day will save 20 lives per month. That implies 20 deaths per 3000 cases. But over the last fortnight we have had 14,420 cases, and 50 deaths. That’s 10 deaths per 3000 cases. So where is the 20 coming from?

You're comparing deaths and cases in the same period. There's a lag between a person becoming infected and dying and a further delay before the death is reported. In other words those 50 deaths related to a time when there were fewer than 14,000 cases.

billybonkers

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319590819645575169

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319619249757892609

RobertKK

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/if-lockdown-has-morphed-from-tactic-to-strategy-the-state-has-failed-1.4388434

Good article.

This lockdown is a result of the failure of the state from the start of the pandemic.
Personally I am fed up of people who think we have done a good job when we are now told we will be in a series of rolling lockdowns.

is_that_so

RobertKK wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/if-lockdown-has-morphed-from-tactic-to-strategy-the-state-has-failed-1.4388434

Good article.

This lockdown is a result of the failure of the state from the start of the pandemic.
Personally I am fed up of people who think we have done a good job when we are now told we will be in a series of rolling lockdowns.

Up to the summer most of what we did was good, given the novel nature of the virus. Now, we're in a bit of a no-man's land as nobody wants to invest in a very expensive system that may never get used in the same way. Add to that, the other V-word - a vaccine, which appears to be tantalisingly close. Even if all they do is make all cases mild and non-life-threatening it's the more attraction option but it comes at a high short-term price - likely rolling lockdowns. There just don't seem to be any other stategies or alternative tools out there

weldoninhio

hotmail.com wrote: »

The hand sanitiser thing is a scandal. The Irish government is again lurching from one calamity to another.

There’s a lot more to come on it fro what I’ve heard.

lawred2

billybonkers wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319619249757892609

BUT DA TeStZ!

lawred2

weldoninhio wrote: »

There’s a lot more to come on it fro what I’ve heard.

that's a bit of a facebook post

what have you heard?

billybonkers

billybonkers wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319619249757892609

No harm, it’s not like people on here get their knickers in a twist before making themselves aware of facts

Will Yam

seamus wrote: »

Swab numbers in early today.

17,746 tests, 1038 positive, 5.85% positivity.

7-day positivity rate down to 6.6%.

I doubt nphet will be referencing this improvement

wirelessdude01

weldoninhio wrote: »

There’s a lot more to come on it fro what I’ve heard.

Go on, spill.

odyssey06

kwestfan08 wrote: »

So with 1,618 deaths in total and 1,531 having underlying conditions, Covid has only killed 87 "healthy" people.

I get its serious and we should all be taking precautions but at a certain point we have to start coming onto the fact that if you aren't compromised and are under 65 you're overwhelmingly likely to be just fine.

That's at least 30% of the population.

The largest demographic for ICU admissions in Ireland in first wave was 55-64.

In the US 20% of covid deaths were under 65.
4% of covid deaths were under 65 without co-morbidities.

So, "just fine" ... if you have ICU there for you.

Paddygreen

RobertKK wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/if-lockdown-has-morphed-from-tactic-to-strategy-the-state-has-failed-1.4388434

Good article.

This lockdown is a result of the failure of the state from the start of the pandemic.
Personally I am fed up of people who think we have done a good job when we are now told we will be in a series of rolling lockdowns.

But it was the public that failed to listen to the guidelines guys. The reality of the matter is it was rule breaking house party animals and their lack of social distancing and being in it together holding firm that has resulted in us now all wondering if deaths cold grey hand will reach out from the frozen mist for us when the dark cold nights of a grim black winter close in on us all as we all watch the situation get even more stark, hopeless, and sobering on RTE going forward.