Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Kickstart1.3

innuendo141 wrote: »

It's beyond me how many times it needs to be explained that while you may be perfectly fine if you are under 65, you are also perfectly fine to pass it on to someone/many over 65.

Sounds like it'll be illegal to be a young person soon

weldoninhio

lawred2 wrote: »

that's a bit of a facebook post

what have you heard?

Same sanitiser is being used in all primary care centres and some hospitals. Email went around today not to use it.

is_that_so

Facebook moderators are essential workers!

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/oct/23/facebook-moderators-forced-to-work-in-dublin-office-despite-high-tier-lockdown

KrustyUCC

Jeez that's a lot of places that will need to replace sanitiser so

Will Yam

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Great! Daily + rate reached a peak of 7.9% on 17th October, and now we've been below 6% for 2 days in a row. Looking like exponential decay to me

Tuesday. 1269

Wednesday. 1167

Thursday. 1066

Friday. 1038

Sardonicat

mloc123 wrote: »

at almost 18,000 tests a day... it seems the weekend contact tracing "drop off" is not evident... Unless they went out and rounded up a few thousands randomers to test to bump up the numbers

Well, that is a good sign so. Hopefully we'll see even more of a drop in a fortnight's time as Level 5 starts to show.

AUDI20

Paddygreen wrote: »

But it was the public that failed to listen to the guidelines guys. The reality of the matter is it was rule breaking house party animals and their lack of social distancing and being in it together holding firm that has resulted in us now all wondering if deaths cold grey hand will reach out from the frozen mist for us when the dark cold nights of a grim black winter close in on us all as we all watch the situation get even more stark, hopeless, and sobering on RTE going forward.

How far into your book are you now Paddy?

Away With The Fairies

is_that_so wrote: »

Hmm, wonder just how this will work in practice but at least there is a plan.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/basketball/2020/1023/1173482-outdoor-basketball-training-permitted-but-no-passing/

No passing the ball? Thought there's less risk picking up covid through contact? But then if you're following the HSE guidelines, they go on about contact.

Will Yam

Sardonicat wrote: »

Well, that is a good sign so. Hopefully we'll see even more of a drop in a fortnight's time as Level 5 starts to show.

The big question for me is that if the trend carries through and cases keep going down, why did that happen?

They tell us level 3 didnt work. But level 5 hasn’t caused this drop.

Sweet.Science

Will Yam wrote: »

The big question for me is that if the trend carries through and cases keep going down, why did that happen?

They tell us level 3 didnt work. But level 5 hasn’t caused this drop.

They didnt give level 3 a chance. Tony wanted level 5 and he gets what he wants

Will Yam

Will Yam wrote: »

Tuesday. 1269

Wednesday. 1167

Thursday. 1066

Friday. 1038

That’s a daily average of 6%. Keep that up and you would be on track for a weekly 40% drop. Done and dusted in time for Black Friday

ACitizenErased

Spanish PM said today that the actual number of cases in Spain is upwards of 3 million. 3 times their case total.

Boggles

Will Yam wrote: »

The big question for me is that if the trend carries through and cases keep going down, why did that happen?

They tell us level 3 didnt work. But level 5 hasn’t caused this drop.

There hasn't been a drop, there has been a slow down in growth. Cases are still growing.

Too many external factors to determine whether we are getting there or not, there has been false dawns before.

We should start to know for sure in the next 7-10 days.

Will Yam

Sweet.Science wrote: »

They didnt give level 3 a chance. Tony wanted level 5 and he gets what he wants

Dublin is also dropping but too soon to say if its a trend.

But level 3 has been in place for 5 weeks so how can you say they didnt give it enough time?

Will Yam

Boggles wrote: »

There hasn't been a drop, there has been a slow down in growth. Cases are still growing.

Too many external factors to determine whether we are getting there or not, there has been false dawns before.

We should start to know for sure in the next 7-10 days.

They aren’t growing - they are falling.

1269/1167/1066/1038 is not growing.

MerlinSouthDub

Will Yam wrote: »

Dublin is also dropping but too soon to say if its a trend.

But level 3 has been in place for 5 weeks so how can you say they didnt give it enough time?

only in place for just over 2 weeks outside Dublin.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

There hasn't been a drop, there has been a slow down in growth. Cases are still growing.

Too many external factors to determine whether we are getting there or not, there has been false dawns before.

We should start to know for sure in the next 7-10 days.

3 successive days of falling numbers is an interesting trend, myself however, I would wait for 5 days of failing 7 day average before calling a peak though

This is going to be a make of break weekend in the hospitals. Situation is deteriorating rapidly. Staff been out. The problem isn't patients been admitted, it's staff that are postive/self isolating. I imagine there will be significant ward closures next week across most HSE hospitals.

Will Yam

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

only in place for just over 2 weeks outside Dublin.

Yes, but you cant say they didnt give level 3 a chance in Dublin. They gave it 5 weeks.

I would accept its too early to say in the case of dublin but the overall drop nationally since Tuesday is encouraging.

My main question is - is there really a correlation between restrictions and number of cases.

In the UK they have a better record right now than we do. About 800 cases per day (pro rata) vs c 1200 here.

And all their pubs restaurants open.

Something doesn’t add up here.

D.Q

Paddygreen wrote: »

But it was the public that failed to listen to the guidelines guys. The reality of the matter is it was rule breaking house party animals and their lack of social distancing and being in it together holding firm that has resulted in us now all wondering if deaths cold grey hand will reach out from the frozen mist for us when the dark cold nights of a grim black winter close in on us all as we all watch the situation get even more stark, hopeless, and sobering on RTE going forward.

Paddy can we stay in touch when this is all over

fabo1thecross

Quick question folks. Child was a close contact and got the results of the second test today negative so happy out. The date to restrict movements is the 28th but the nurse said second test negative so no need to restrict movement anymore. What's the story there

Will Yam

Deleted User wrote: »

3 successive days of falling numbers is an interesting trend, myself however, I would wait for 5 days of failing 7 day average before calling a peak though

I think you may be right here.

But why do rte ignore any positive news?

Boggles

Will Yam wrote: »

They aren’t growing - they are falling.

1269/1167/1066/1038 is not growing.

I can show you 4 days of corresponding data in Dublin to show that it had slumped completely.

That's why people don't make concrete assumptions on 4 days of data.

The reality is we dropped the positivity rate by 0.4% but we did 16,000 more tests.

There is a test for everyone in the audience now if they want one.

Also I'm pretty sure the metric used is confirmed positive cases, not swabs.

fabo1thecross

fabo1thecross wrote: »

Quick question folks. Child was a close contact and got the results of the second test today negative so happy out. The date to restrict movements is the 28th but the nurse said second test negative so no need to restrict movement anymore. What's the story there

Nurse is wrong. Is unbelievable how many people don’t get this. Incubation can take up to 14 days, and before then the virus may not be detectable, hence the requirement to restrict movements for 14 days. Purpose of the day 1 and day 7 test is to catch any follow on contacts they may have if they test positive in the interim

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

3 successive days of falling numbers is an interesting trend, myself however, I would wait for 5 days of failing 7 day average before calling a peak though

It is, even more interesting given the backdrop.

Will Yam

Boggles wrote: »

I can show you 4 days of corresponding data in Dublin to show that it had slumped completely.

That's why people don't make concrete assumptions on 4 days of data.

The reality is we dropped the positivity rate by 0.4% but we did 16,000 more tests.

There is a test for everyone in the audience now if they want one.

Also I'm pretty sure the metric used is confirmed positive cases, not swabs.

I’m not suggesting that 4 days data forms the basis for a decision. One would need at least a 14 day average fall to make that sort of decision.

My point is that nphet and Rte focus exclusively on the negative side of it. There are tentative positive signs here (which could be dashed) but no mention is made of it.

Boggles

Will Yam wrote: »

My point is that nphet and Rte focus exclusively on the negative side of it. There are tentative positive signs here (which could be dashed) but no mention is made of it.

Nolan referenced the falling positive rate twice last night.

He also echoed your concerns that it is too early to tell.

So what exactly do you want NPHET to say?

CIARAN_BOYLE

Will Yam wrote: »

I think you may be right here.

But why do rte ignore any positive news?

I believe the estimation is that it's unimportant.

Let's say we missed contact tracing 2k people over the weekend and asked them to do their own contact tracing. An average person has 5.6 contacts. The average positivity rate among contacts is 13%.

11,200 people who should have gotten a test over the last few days didn't get one. This probably means 1450 cases was missed over a few days. Now they may have been picked up again by people doing their own contact tracing. Or people doing their own contact tracing misses close contacts and instead tests a lot of extra casual contacts.

Either way I feel that the last few days of results are heavily distorted and am refusing to get too tied into the stats of them.

Mullaghteelin

Will Yam wrote: »

But why do rte ignore any positive news?

RTÉ's job is to scare us into staying at home and obey the rules. RTE is a mere arm of the government's propaganda machine. Considering how dependent the older generations are on RTÉ for news, RTE's output is akin to elder abuse.

Widdensushi

Boggles wrote: »

I can show you 4 days of corresponding data in Dublin to show that it had slumped completely.

That's why people don't make concrete assumptions on 4 days of data.

The reality is we dropped the positivity rate by 0.4% but we did 16,000 more tests.

There is a test for everyone in the audience now if they want one.

Also I'm pretty sure the metric used is confirmed positive cases, not swabs.

But the amount of positives is dropping also, not just the positivity rate

Boggles

Widdensushi wrote: »

But the amount of positives is dropping also, not just the positivity rate

Over what time period?

Benimar

Widdensushi wrote: »

But the amount of positives is dropping also, not just the positivity rate

Well, not really.

Last 5 days swabs were 970, 905, 1,105, 1,040 and 1,038.

If anything, we had a drop early in the week and it’s creeping back up again.

We had a biggish day in the middle of the week and yes it has dropped from then but there has only been 6 days with a figure higher than today, one of which is yesterday, with a difference of 2.

fabo1thecross

Not much wonder with so much confusion around the rule/advice that it got out of hand.

bb1234567

mikekerry wrote: »

Take it as you like that's what I heard.
couldn't give a hoot if you think it's made up I'm just taking it from someone else.

I don't believe rumours unaccompanied by evidence, nor should anyone including you

bodhrandude

What happened to the posters who used to give the new case numbers early in the afternoon from a month back, I think Yourdeadwright was one of them.

Boggles

bodhrandude wrote: »

What happened to the posters who used to give the new case numbers early in the afternoon from a month back, I think Yourdeadwright was one of them.

Leo had him arrested.

Only room for one leaker in these parts.

Wolf359f

Will Yam wrote: »

In the UK they have a better record right now than we do. About 800 cases per day (pro rata) vs c 1200 here.

Where are you getting the UK at 800 vs 1200 in Ireland. What metric are you using?

Widdensushi

Benimar wrote: »

Well, not really.

Last 5 days swabs were 970, 905, 1,105, 1,040 and 1,038.

If anything, we had a drop early in the week and it’s creeping back up again.

We had a biggish day in the middle of the week and yes it has dropped from then but there has only been 6 days with a figure higher than today, one of which is yesterday, with a difference of 2.

What were the previous days 1506 and 1370 I think?

Jim_Hodge

Will Yam wrote: »

Yes, but you cant say they didnt give level 3 a chance in Dublin. They gave it 5 weeks.

I would accept its too early to say in the case of dublin but the overall drop nationally since Tuesday is encouraging.

My main question is - is there really a correlation between restrictions and number of cases.

In the UK they have a better record right now than we do. About 800 cases per day (pro rata) vs c 1200 here.

And all their pubs restaurants open.

Something doesn’t add up here.

You need to look at those UK figures again. Pro rata they would be 1550-1600 per day for us.

seamus

Will Yam wrote: »

I doubt nphet will be referencing this improvement

It'll be interesting to see if they're digging under the mattress for a few extra cases again today.

Happydays2020

seamus wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see if they're digging under the mattress for a few extra cases again today.

Indeed, especially with The Leader on the Late Late Tonight....

Cerco

s1ippy wrote: »

More shameful behaviour by the HSE to control the figures surrounding schools.

No other workplace is given this level of careful oversight in how it's handled. If only they were investing the same energy in actually managing the outbreaks instead of suppressing the information and making excuses for not testing.

Nothing at all shameful about this. It merely reflects the priority afforded to a service which is deemed essential to maintain for the good of children and parents. The Dept of Health are doing an excellent job in the current difficult circumstances. I trust the teachers will respond accordingly.

Signore Fancy Pants

Theres still a few "non essential" shops open in Dun Laoghaire. Two shoe shops, a greeting card shop, etc.

Hows yer places?

Benimar

Widdensushi wrote: »

What were the previous days 1506 and 1370 I think?

Yeah, they were the two ‘biggies’. Was hovering around 900 prior to that.

Stheno

Covid cases in half the schools in NI

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-found-in-half-the-schools-in-northern-ireland-health-agency-says-1.4389515

Coronavirus has been identified in half of all schools in Northern Ireland since the beginning of term, according to the North’s Public Health Agency (PHA).

Data published by the PHA showed there were 2,030 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in schools between their reopening on August 24th, and October 18th, when schools closed for an extended, two-week half-term holiday.

In total, 608 Covid 19 incidents involving 519 schools were reported, the PHA said.

Almost 40 per cent of those incidents were clusters of between two and five cases, and 11 per cent were clusters of five or more.

Of the 1,789 school-based cases where a pupil/staff breakdown was available, 1,218 cases - or 68 per cent - were among pupils. This equates to 0.37 per cent of school-aged children in Northern Ireland.

There were 390 cases among primary school children, 803 among post-primary, and 25 among pupils attending special schools.

RobertKK

Paddygreen wrote: »

But it was the public that failed to listen to the guidelines guys. The reality of the matter is it was rule breaking house party animals and their lack of social distancing and being in it together holding firm that has resulted in us now all wondering if deaths cold grey hand will reach out from the frozen mist for us when the dark cold nights of a grim black winter close in on us all as we all watch the situation get even more stark, hopeless, and sobering on RTE going forward.

Is it the public that lost control of the track and trace system?

It is not like we were warned there would be a second wave and here it is and it is clear the state did feck all to prepare and it is why we are in this lockdown.

The politicians had powers to give the Gardai more powers with house parties, they could have brought in high fines, but no lets blame the public for the state not doing anything meaningful to slow down or prevent unwanted behaviour and for not having the health systems prepared for it.

This current mess stems from both the previous and current governments.

Funsterdelux

RobertKK wrote: »

Is it the public that lost control of the track and trace system?

It is not like we were warned there would be a second wave and here it is and it is clear the state did feck all to prepare and it is why we are in this lockdown.

The politicians had powers to give the Gardai more powers with house parties, they could have brought in high fines, but no lets blame the public for the state not doing anything meaningful to slow down or prevent unwanted behaviour and for not having the health systems prepared for it.

This current mess stems from both the previous and current governments.

Hear, hear

babyboom

Signore Fancy Pants wrote: »

Theres still a few "non essential" shops open in Dun Laoghaire. Two shoe shops, a greeting card shop, etc.

Hows yer places?

Local flooring shop open here. Bike shop open in the neighbouring village. My daughter works in a bookshop who are staying open as newspapers are apparently an essential service. This despite the fact that there are two supermarkets next door both selling papers. Had to bring shopping to my mother in Beaumont today and traffic was at normal volumes.

mloc123

Stheno wrote: »

Covid cases in half the schools in NI

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-found-in-half-the-schools-in-northern-ireland-health-agency-says-1.4389515

Hardly a surprise... I think something like 1 in ever 150 people in the north tested positive in the past 2 weeks?

MerlinSouthDub

Benimar wrote: »

Well, not really.

Last 5 days swabs were 970, 905, 1,105, 1,040 and 1,038.

If anything, we had a drop early in the week and it’s creeping back up again.

We had a biggish day in the middle of the week and yes it has dropped from then but there has only been 6 days with a figure higher than today, one of which is yesterday, with a difference of 2.

On the days with 970 and 905, the + rate was higher than it has been for the last 2 days. So, it was just lower numbers of tests on those days.