Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Stheno

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No way would they drop that quick, especially compared to how high Northern Ireland has continued.

Level 3 effect

Stheno

Stheno wrote: »

Level 3 effect

Level 3 did nothing, virtually no measures introduced that would make the numbers drop this quick.

GooglePlus

A 25% drop in cases overnight, we've cracked the code.

Reckless Abandonment

Benimar wrote: »

There is a 261 difference between swabs and announced. I wouldn’t be getting too excited based on today’s announced figure.

The real figure is probably about 1,000, which is a drop on yesterday, but a relatively small one.

True. But its a drop and a drop from level 3. Fingers crossed.

BringBackMick

2 day level 5 effect..

Shame our politicians have no balls and couldnt wait to see if the effect of level 3 + would work before ruining a large cohort of societies lives for 6 weeks

Spineless

AdamD

babyboom wrote: »

Local flooring shop open here. Bike shop open in the neighbouring village. My daughter works in a bookshop who are staying open as newspapers are apparently an essential service. This despite the fact that there are two supermarkets next door both selling papers. Had to bring shopping to my mother in Beaumont today and traffic was at normal volumes.

Aren't bike shops allowed to be open?

gipi

My local Tesco Extra has blocked off the clothes section, with the exception of some children's clothing (might be only underclothes and the like, I didn't pay too much attention) and men's underwear.

ACitizenErased

Roughly 200 cases unaccounted for when you take into account 60-70 average re-tests per day.

GooglePlus

BringBackMick wrote: »

2 day level 5 effect..

Shame our politicians have no balls and couldnt wait to see if the effect of level 3 + would work before ruining a large cohort of societies lives for 6 weeks

Spineless

The swabs tell a different story, our cases haven't fallen to that extent so quickly.

BringBackMick

GooglePlus wrote: »

The swabs tell a different story, our cases haven't fallen to that extent so quickly.

I know but they had levelled off and we had found a landing spot to try live a normal enough life, but no as always with this virus we react in a knee jerk way

mloc123

AdamD wrote: »

Aren't bike shops allowed to be open?

Yes, they are listed as essential (shops that repair bikes)

Jim_Hodge

BringBackMick wrote: »

2 day level 5 effect..

Shame our politicians have no balls and couldnt wait to see if the effect of level 3 + would work before ruining a large cohort of societies lives for 6 weeks

Spineless

You're reacting like there is a definite trend. I'd love this to be a sign of a significant reduction but it's just too early to say yet and hasn't been a feature of the figures long enough. So claiming this a level three impact that doesn't require a level five could be premature outrage.

PopTarts

Is there a backlog from any other day or just the 200+ from today

Stheno

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Level 3 did nothing, virtually no measures introduced that would make the numbers drop this quick.

5 weeks of level three in Dublin coupled with two nationally would be my conclusion tbh

Benimar

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Roughly 200 cases unaccounted for when you take into account 60-70 average re-tests per day.

Yeah, before today the swabs in the last 13 days were 15,285 and announced was 14,977.

Approx 2% swabs not turning into announced cases, and it definitely appears there are 200-250 more cases to come.

quartz1

Can the Government do anything right.. they should either open all similiar shops or close them all......very unfair to see like of Penny's forced to close and Dunnes open

Non solum non ambulabit

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No way would they drop that quick, especially compared to how high Northern Ireland has continued.

2 to 3 weeks before Level 5 takes effect. This is Level 3 impacts.

alentejo

I think the whole issue of essential retail and clothing is going to become an issue. Yes I know you can click and collect, however at this time of year, I suspect a lot of people of all ages require clothes. Everything from scarves, coats, gloves etc.

Dunnes clothes in Rathmines was open thru Lockdown MK1 and served a purpose to but teeshirts etc when the weather became warmer. Likewise, this time, people will need things to adapt to the changing weather etc.

I think history will judge the non essential retail as one of the most unfair policies ever pursued by any Irish Government!

Benimar

PopTarts wrote: »

Is there a backlog from any other day or just the 200+ from today

It seems just to be today’s.

stephenjmcd

Stheno wrote: »

5 weeks of level three in Dublin coupled with two nationally would be my conclusion tbh

The first threat of level 5 would line up (the rejected one), I'd say a few people copped on a bit more around then.

But yeah a stabilisation lines up with level 3 for the country

RobertKK

If there are signs level 3 is working then NPHET should be replaced as their level 5 advice will cost the country billions of Euro and unnecessary suffering for many.
We will only know in the coming days.

RobertKK

There is another scenario that the numbers are lower due to the problems with the track and trace system, we just have to wait and see.

MrMusician18

I know we shouldn't rush to judge on one days figures, but cases do seem to be stable to starting to trend down.

This is positive.

stephenjmcd

alentejo wrote: »

I think the whole issue of essential retail and clothing is going to become an issue. Yes I know you can click and collect, however at this time of year, I suspect a lot of people of all ages require clothes. Everything from scarves, coats, gloves etc.

Dunnes clothes in Rathmines was open thru Lockdown MK1 and served a purpose to but teeshirts etc when the weather became warmer. Likewise, this time, people will need things to adapt to the changing weather etc.

I think history will judge the non essential retail as one of the most unfair policies ever pursued by any Irish Government!

Likewise Dunnes in Cornelscourt had the full clothes and homeware section open during first lockdown and its still open now. Found myself over there a few times having to get a few things. Will probably do the same this time again when the weather gets colder.

hmmm

I'm hopeful that Level 3 is proving to be the level at which we can hold the numbers steady. This would make sense as it closes the places where superspreading events can happen.

It would mean that after Level 5 has brought the numbers down in a few weeks time, we can run the country at Level 3 until we have vaccines and better treatments. Perhaps 6 months of restrictions.

It's obviously not good for the businesses affected and we will have to support them, but better to find a level we can live at and make the best of it instead of a cycle of opening and rushed lockdowns.

froog

RobertKK wrote: »

There is another scenario that the numbers are lower due to the problems with the track and trace system, we just have to wait and see.

bingo.

Eod100

15,000 in last 14 days. 55,261 cases in total so far, that's nearly 30% of all cases.

PTH2009

Numbers going down which is a good thing

Goldrickssan

Poor George Lee talking about positive news - must be dying inside

jojofizzio

A reason to celebrate in itself....George Lee reporting positive news!!

Stheno

Goldrickssan wrote: »

Poor George Lee talking about positive news - must be dying inside

Really?

CruelSummer

Benimar wrote: »

Just on the news now. Dunnes and the like are not allowed sell clothes and need to stop.

Yes, let's keep closing down businesses and destroy our economy.

The Government's move to Level 5 has been met with a lot of skepticism. People will 'go along' and do whatever they can. The buy in isn't there. Why should it be. I've some questions for NPHET/Government/Cabinet:

1. How could Stephen Donnelly and Michael Martin pretend they 'didn't know' about the contact tracing backlog? Was this not brought up during the major discussions re closing down our economy and society last weekend?? If it wasn't, why on earth should anyone follow Level 5, if the cabinet voting for it doesn't even gather basic information when making huge decisions affecting everyone in the state.

2. Will Dr Tony Holohan be questioned tonight on the Late Late Show as to how a nursing home in Galway has become overrun with Covid? How have these areas not been the focus of NPHET's strategy? Are staff there tested routinely? If not, why not?

3. Why are they imposing a 5km limit on people for exercise in the Winter when some people might want to drive to the sea/remote walk in the fresh air? Why would anyone think it's sensible to close tennis/golf/athletics for adults, etc.? Where is the evidence that outbreaks were caused in these settings justifying this?

4. A Mater Consultant last week stated on Virgin media that their ICU was nearing capacity...did he inform the public only 2 of these patients were Covid patients at that moment in time, or did he imply this was as a result of Covid? Why would he seek to mislead if so?

5. Why are Prof Nolan's 'models' upon which all of the Level 5 rationale is based, not available for the public to view? Is it correct that they are basing these models on the assumption that only 1% of Irish people contracted Covid based on a low summer sample relying solely on antibodies?

6. Why is Prof Thomas Ryan continually given airtime on Prime Time - he's not an immunologist or epidemiologist.

We the public deserve the facts and the answers.

Jeff2

GooglePlus wrote: »

A 25% drop in cases overnight, we've cracked the code.

NPHET up up down down left right left right

B A....

That seems worth a try at this stage.

Goldrickssan

Stheno wrote: »

Really?

Nobody can deny that the last few days is looking alot better than a week ago as far as growth trends go.

Not even George

froog

track and trace has completely collapsed. that easily accounts for the sudden 300-400 drop.

sorry all, but it's clear as day what's happened.

ACitizenErased

froog wrote: »

track and trace has completely collapsed. that easily accounts for the sudden 300-400 drop.

sorry all, but it's clear as day what's happened.

What does the track and trace (HSE) have to do with reported cases (HPSC)? There's zero correlation.

spookwoman

Balmed Out

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What does the track and trace (HSE) have to do with reported cases (HPSC)? There's zero correlation.

Presumably they test close contacts so if they are testing more likely positives they will find more.

froog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What does the track and trace (HSE) have to do with reported cases (HPSC)? There's zero correlation.

are you serious?

ACitizenErased

froog wrote: »

are you serious?

You know how cases work yes? The NVRL/Labs report 1000 swabs to the HPSC - the HPSC then reports the cases. The tracing system is not involved before that.

Hellrazer

Deleted User wrote: »

Level 3 did nothing, virtually no measures introduced that would make the numbers drop this quick.

The results of level 3 would have been seen after 14 days.

Guess what ?
We`re 16 days since level 3 was introduced and even yesterday was slightly down (day 15). They should have just let it run without jumping to level 5 because what we are seeing today is the result of level 3 working.


Now they`ll pat them selves on the back 2 days in to level 5 and say its working. When in reality the effects of level 5 wont be seen for another 14 days or so.


I say it again--they haven't a ****ing clue.

JP Liz V1

Benimar wrote: »

Just on the news now. Dunnes and the like are not allowed sell clothes and need to stop.

Are clothes non essential anymore, nude all around so

Sardonicat

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What does the track and trace (HSE) have to do with reported cases (HPSC)? There's zero correlation.

Several hundred people unaware they are close contacts and not presenting for testing?

froog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You know how cases work yes? The NVRL/Labs report 1000 swabs to the HPSC - the HPSC then reports the cases. The tracing system is not involved before that.

contact tracing collapses = less people who might be infected get tested = less positive cases.

ACitizenErased

Sardonicat wrote: »

Several hundred people unaware they are close contacts and not presenting for testing?

What does that have to do with the HPSC underreporting swabs for today? There was 1000+ positive swabs today. With a decreasing positivity rate.

Gael23

hmmm wrote: »

I'm hopeful that Level 3 is proving to be the level at which we can hold the numbers steady. This would make sense as it closes the places where superspreading events can happen.

It would mean that after Level 5 has brought the numbers down in a few weeks time, we can run the country at Level 3 until we have vaccines and better treatments. Perhaps 6 months of restrictions.

It's obviously not good for the businesses affected and we will have to support them, but better to find a level we can live at and make the best of it instead of a cycle of opening and rushed lockdowns.

Level 3 for 6 months isn’t really sustainable

bb1234567

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Italy really pushing those big numbers now, even after they picked up pace in September they had some suppression, but now it's building very fast.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1319667404486619136?s=20

The most worrying thing about Italy is that it's positivity rate has been increasing by over 1% every consecutive day for a week now

I don't understand what it is about Western Europe that makes this virus so spread so ridiculously quickly. Of course we know why deaths are pretty high in Western Europe because of an elderly population, but it doesnt explain why so many people are catching it. Western Europe is densely populated but you would think with Western standard of living with pretty spacious homes and small families and not overly densly populated cities that infection would not spread so quickly, especially with the many precautions also being taken in addition

Widdensushi

You can smell the disappointment in the air on here of people disappointed with a good number.

ACitizenErased

froog wrote: »

contact tracing collapses = less people who might be infected get tested = less positive cases.

That's not how it works, at all. Contact tracing collapsing leads to a rise in community transmission = rise in cases.
By your logic if we just stop tracing then positive cases just drop.

ShayNanigan

jojofizzio wrote: »

A reason to celebrate in itself....George Lee reporting positive news!!

Looks like my neighbours think so too as they already started... Saw a taxi pull up in front of their house with flower arrangements and cakes being carried in earlier, now cars arriving and people outside sounding quite cheerful. Not sure if it's a wedding, a birthday party or what but clearly a celebration. Doubt they're celebrating Level 5!