Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

CIARAN_BOYLE

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What does the track and trace (HSE) have to do with reported cases (HPSC)? There's zero correlation.

I've said it before so I'll just quote.

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I believe the estimation is that it's unimportant.

Let's say we missed contact tracing 2k people over the weekend and asked them to do their own contact tracing. An average person has 5.6 contacts. The average positivity rate among contacts is 13%.

11,200 people who should have gotten a test over the last few days didn't get one. This probably means 1450 cases was missed over a few days. Now they may have been picked up again by people doing their own contact tracing. Or people doing their own contact tracing misses close contacts and instead tests a lot of extra casual contacts.

Either way I feel that the last few days of results are heavily distorted and am refusing to get too tied into the stats of them.

ACitizenErased

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I've said it before so I'll just quote.

The fact you're assuming that no contacts came forward for testing says it all tbh.

manniot2

froog wrote: »

track and trace has completely collapsed. that easily accounts for the sudden 300-400 drop.

sorry all, but it's clear as day what's happened.

Good. Long may it continue

jackboy

CruelSummer wrote: »

2. Will Dr Tony Holohan be questioned tonight on the Late Late Show as to how a nursing home in Galway has become overrun with Covid? How have these areas not been the focus of NPHET's strategy? Are staff there tested routinely? If not, why not?.

He is not going to be questioned, it’s a propaganda piece.

Sardonicat

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What does that have to do with the HPSC underreporting swabs for today? There was 1000+ positive swabs today. With a decreasing positivity rate.

I don't understand you.

Blondini

Widdensushi wrote: »

You can smell the disappointment in the air on here of people disappointed with a good number.

Don't sense that at all.

ACitizenErased

Sardonicat wrote: »

I don't understand you.

There was 1000 positive swabs today. 777 reported. Cases aren't miraculously decreasing in massive numbers.

manniot2

ShayNanigan wrote: »

Looks like my neighbours think so too as they already started... Saw a taxi pull up in front of their house with flower arrangements and cakes being carried in earlier, now cars arriving and people outside sounding quite cheerful. Not sure if it's a wedding, a birthday party or what but clearly a celebration. Doubt they're celebrating Level 5!

We might look back in a few years and laugh at comments we made like this. Hopefully anyway

froog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That's not how it works, at all. Contact tracing collapsing leads to a rise in community transmission = rise in cases.
By your logic if we just stop tracing then positive cases just drop.

contact tracing results in a large number of asymptomatic positives being caught that otherwise wouldn't. do you seriously not understand that?

Russman

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That's not how it works, at all. Contact tracing collapsing leads to a rise in community transmission = rise in cases.
By your logic if we just stop tracing then positive cases just drop.

Would it not work the other way also though ? If tracing collapses fewer people will be informed they (may) need a test so you’d potentially be missing asymptomatic cases, no ?

mloc123

ShayNanigan wrote: »

Looks like my neighbours think so too as they already started... Saw a taxi pull up in front of their house with flower arrangements and cakes being carried in earlier, now cars arriving and people outside sounding quite cheerful. Not sure if it's a wedding, a birthday party or what but clearly a celebration. Doubt they're celebrating Level 5!

Well if you have an issue with it, report to the guards

CIARAN_BOYLE

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The fact you're assuming that no contacts came forward for testing says it all tbh.

Some will have but a lot will have been missed.

Upto 1450 will have been missed. Some will have been caught but a lot of them won't have.

I won't celebrate good figures with a cloud hanging over it.

Happydays2020

The house parties are continuing. On LUAS earlier - group of lads with about 6 slabs of beer. Absolutely no shame.

Budweiser FFS.

spookwoman

froog wrote: »

contact tracing results in a large number of asymptomatic positives being caught that otherwise wouldn't. do you seriously not understand that?

Exactly, if a more random selection of people get tested then the chances of positives drops compared to people who are known to be close contacts how are more likely to be infected.

stephenjmcd

From reading last few posts everyone is assuming that none of the people who would have been told by a confirmed case that their a close contact have come forward for testing.

Now you'd hope that those who were told by a confirmed case that they were a contact, have contacted their GPs, based on what GPs were reporting earlier in the week they got swamped by people ringing up looking for a test after being told they were close contacts.

Maybe its just my hope that people have a bit of social responsibility that they'd have gone for a test, so track and trace might not have missed out on too many in the end and maybe others are reckless. We'll soon see

Anyway regardless we're still doing around 17k tests a day during the week.

Arghus

It's certainly great to see a dramatically lower number of notified cases, but I'm holding off on popping the champagne corks yet. Whether the issues of testing and tracing and questions about lab availability are actually as serious as they say, or are overblown and misunderstood by the media is not something I can figure out, but such a dramatic fall when there appears to be such whisperings of chaos and collapse with the tracing system, and, what is it, another roughly 300 positive swabs unaccounted for? I'd be cautious enough reading too much into todays figure tbh.

ACitizenErased

froog wrote: »

contact tracing results in a large number of asymptomatic positives being caught that otherwise wouldn't. do you seriously not understand that?

I honestly can't believe you think the entire contact tracing system has collapsed. There's being realistic and there's being ignorant.

mloc123

People saying Level 3 is working now, is likely true.. But, IMO level 3 will see cases level out and maybe even drop slightly but that rate is probably still too high for hospitals to cope longer term.

I *assume* the plan will be - level 5 to get the rates back in the 1-200 cases a day range and then level 3 to keep it there.

Sardonicat

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There was 1000 positive swabs today. 777 reported. Cases aren't miraculously decreasing in massive numbers.

I still don't understand you at all. The 777 are up to midnight last night, yes?

stephenjmcd

Happydays2020 wrote: »

The house parties are continuing. On LUAS earlier - group of lads with about 6 slabs of beer. Absolutely no shame.

Budweiser FFS.

Should be fined for just having budweiser

ACitizenErased

I can't believe there's actually people on here who think none of the cases identified last weekend have notified their contacts. Like seriously?

ACitizenErased

Sardonicat wrote: »

I still don't understand you at all. The 777 are up to midnight last night, yes?

Cases reported yes, not positive tests.

ShayNanigan

manniot2 wrote: »

We might look back in a few years and laugh at comments we made like this. Hopefully anyway

I know... I love a good party as much as anyone and I know people cannot put their entire lives on hold because of a pandemic. Not enjoying the situation at all and kinda hate the fact I get negative feelings because someone is celebrating.

About the numbers, if I didn't know better and had my tinfoil hat on, I'd say someone punched the numbers in before the weekend and got their finger stuck at 7. :D

ACitizenErased

Russman wrote: »

Would it not work the other way also though ? If tracing collapses fewer people will be informed they (may) need a test so you’d potentially be missing asymptomatic cases, no ?

You're assuming that every single contact at the weekend is not getting tested, a bizarre and unbelievable assumption.

froog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I can't believe there's actually people on here who think none of the cases identified last weekend have notified their contacts. Like seriously?

who said that?

ShayNanigan

mloc123 wrote: »

Well if you have an issue with it, report to the guards

None of my business really and doubt they'd do a thing.

Stheno

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I can't believe there's actually people on here who think none of the cases identified last weekend have notified their contacts. Like seriously?

That would be backed up by the GPS saying they were swamped with calls from close contacts this week

But hey its only one day

Hellrazer

mloc123 wrote: »

I *assume* the plan will be - level 5 to get the rates back in the 1-200 cases a day range and then level 3 to keep it there.

Plan? They cant even plan what they are having for breakfast never mind a long term plan for dealing with covid.

ACitizenErased

Just for people's reference:
Community referrals for the first 4 days this week are already higher than the first 4 days last week. Almost as if people are coming forward for testing :rolleyes:
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard-23-october-2020.pdf

Sardonicat

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Cases reported yes, not positive tests.

OK. You're going to have to explain the difference to a dope like me.

Russman

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You're assuming that every single contact at the weekend is not getting tested, a bizarre and unbelievable assumption.

How are you getting that from my post ? I never said anything of the sort.

ACitizenErased

Sardonicat wrote: »

OK. You're going to have to explain the difference to a dope like me.

The labs report positive swabs to the HPSC each day. Today it was something like 1030. The HPSC then reports the case. Of the 1030 positive swabs today, the HPSC reported 777 cases. So it's not like cases have magically decreased, the HPSC simply haven't reported some.

Wolf359f

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I can't believe there's actually people on here who think none of the cases identified last weekend have notified their contacts. Like seriously?

You're wasting your time trying to explain, ACE.
If they missed 20,000 close contacts during the week and none came forward, we would see a significant drop in tests done this week and a significant increase in the positive rate. The latter 2 hasn't happened and it's not like they will just randomly swab people to keep up capacity.

ACitizenErased

Russman wrote: »

How are you getting that from my post ? I never said anything of the sort.

fewer people will be informed they (may) need a test

Positive cases last weekend were told to tell their contacts to come forward for testing, so that sentence assumes that contacts don't come forward, which is the opposite of what GPs and the referral data says.

Boggles

15,000 cases in the last fortnight.

At between 3-5% hospital rate.

Could be a tough couple of weeks for the health service, hopefully the "right" people are getting infected.

ACitizenErased

Wolf359f wrote: »

You're wasting your time trying to explain, ACE.
If they missed 20,000 close contacts during the week and none came forward, we would see a significant drop in tests done this week and a significant increase in the positive rate. The latter 2 hasn't happened and it's not like they will just randomly swab people to keep up capacity.

I don't think some on here know that the positivity rate reflects the volume of disease in the community :rolleyes:

froog

Wolf359f wrote: »

You're wasting your time trying to explain, ACE.
If they missed 20,000 close contacts during the week and none came forward, we would see a significant drop in tests done this week and a significant increase in the positive rate. The latter 2 hasn't happened and it's not like they will just randomly swab people to keep up capacity.

close contacts are the most likely group of people to test positive. if a load of them are missed and don't present the overall positivity rate goes down.

rob316

lawred2 wrote: »

that's a bit of a facebook post

what have you heard?

I've sold virapro and the supplier was in touch and stated this batch that was tested didn't actually make it into the marketplace.

Russman

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Positive cases last weekend were told to tell their contacts to come forward for testing, so that sentence assumes that contacts don't come forward, which is the opposite of what GPs and the referral data says.

Yes but I never suggested every single contact is not getting tested as you stated I did. I was making the point that not only, as you correctly stated, if tracing collapses, you have widespread community transmission and therefore more cases, but also that if tracing even partially collapses you could have contacts not being informed and not being tested and subsequently miss asymptomatic cases.

ACitizenErased

froog wrote: »

close contacts are the most likely group of people to test positive. if a load of them are missed and don't present the overall positivity rate goes down.

If cases are being missed the volume of disease in the community increases, which means the positivity rate increases.

ACitizenErased

Russman wrote: »

Yes but I never suggested every single contact is not getting tested as you stated I did. I was making the point that not only, as you correctly stated, if tracing collapses, you have widespread community transmission and therefore more cases, but also that if tracing even partially collapses you could have contacts not being informed and not being tested and subsequently miss asymptomatic cases.

Which would result in the positivity rate increasing, and as a result, cases increasing, which isn't happening.

froog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If cases are being missed the volume of disease in the community increases, which means the positivity rate increases.

eventually. you will see a drop first.

ACitizenErased

froog wrote: »

eventually. you will see a drop first.

I'll talk to ya in a week so ya?

Sardonicat

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I don't think some on here know that the positivity rate reflects the volume of disease in the community :rolleyes:

You're being very smug about having a better grasp of how this works than some of us, TBH. You still haven't explained why the all positive cases wouldn't be reported, for example. I'm sure the reason is blisteringly obvious to you and my asking will give you a good chuckle . I'm not doubting your knowledge or information at all, BTW, I just don't understand why several hundred positive swabs have been left out of today's reported 'cases".

Widdensushi

froog wrote: »

close contacts are the most likely group of people to test positive. if a load of them are missed and don't present the overall positivity rate goes down.

People are sensible enough to do their own contact tracing for the most part, a case near me this week where the community ensured all contracts were tested

Wolf359f

froog wrote: »

close contacts are the most likely group of people to test positive. if a load of them are missed and don't present the overall positivity rate goes down.

Symptomatic people are the most likely to test positive.
If the 20,000 close contacts of a confirmed case didn't request a test we would see a big drop in testing figures/community referrals and and a result we would see an increase in positivity rate.

The number of positive cases whose close contacts were not traced by track and trace was 2500. With an average of 4 close contacts, that could be 10,000 people needing a test. Of which ~12% will be positive (1200), of the 1200, ~60-80% (720-960) will develop symptoms and I would assume seek a test.

seamus

froog wrote: »

eventually. you will see a drop first.

Because?

sonofenoch

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Are clothes non essential anymore, nude all around so

Far less likley to spread the Coov buying spuds and cabbage than going for jeans and a tee shirt .....................imo

Boggles

Tracing collapsed nearly 3 weeks ago and by the sounds it has got worse.

We simply are finding less cases now then we were before that.

Track and Trace 101.

How many more indicators of a clusterfúck behind the scenes do we need before we declare it a clusterfúck?

NPHET are very protective of the public health officials doing the tracking and tracing and Nolan especially goes out of his way nearly every briefing to praise them to the nth degree because he well knows how much pressure they are under and if they down tools we are proper fúcked.

froog

seamus wrote: »

Because?

because a collapse/slowdown in contact tracing will have an immediate impact on cases.

it could take 1-2 weeks to see an increase due to the impact of untested positives infecting other people.