Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

prunudo

6 wrote: »

It's an unfair comparison tbf.

Peoples behaviour is considerly better now. Masks are worn by almost everyone. Sanitiser is in the every shop. People naturally distant from each other.

Absolutely, but there's so many reasons to be out and about now its more like the end of May or start June now. They are going on about it being serious as we're in a level 5 lockdown, and while technically correct, its not what people imagine the worst level should be.
Just think there's a disconnect between where those in charge think we are and where the public think we are.

Blondini

Trouser Snake wrote: »

Covid compliance officer in the local petrol station yesterday on a power trip lining everyone up exactly on the spots in the deli queue.
Tensions were needlessly heightened by her carry on, people were socially distancing just fine before she intervened.

Sounds absolutely terrifying.

Those deli queues are war zones at the best of times.

Stay strong brother.

shinzon

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1024/1173638-coronavirus-world/?fbclid=IwAR0-zjMADvAC6bh8NfzEVmzaEuygOxr-ZhO-Dn6tcFOcu_gk8Cs0zFqv0nk

The European Union's disease control agency has joined frantic health workers to sound the alarm over a coronavirus surge across the continent, as the World Health Organization warned of an "exponential" rise in infections.

Even countries that avoided severe outbreaks during Europe's first wave of contagion in the spring have watched their case numbers surge, with Germany's death toll passing 10,000.

Shin

caveat emptor

Widdensushi wrote: »

Big increase in most age groups

True but every school going age group has increased more than every other age group. :eek: Might have something to do with schools. Of course correlation does not mean causation.

Blondini

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Great to see Level 5 restrictions have worked, huge drop in numbers since Thursday.

At this rate we’ll be zero cases by next weekend.

Zero covid? We will have negative Covid where dead people start coming back to life by next week.

What a time to be alive.

Gruffalux

shinzon wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1024/1173638-coronavirus-world/?fbclid=IwAR0-zjMADvAC6bh8NfzEVmzaEuygOxr-ZhO-Dn6tcFOcu_gk8Cs0zFqv0nk



Shin

They should take our example. Let the testing and contact and trace system falter. Numbers stop rising then.

Dempo1

Trouser Snake wrote: »

Covid compliance officer in the local petrol station yesterday on a power trip lining everyone up exactly on the spots in the deli queue.
Tensions were needlessly heightened by her carry on, people were socially distancing just fine before she intervened.

I think it's good there's some checks taking place, the fact she had to line people up suggests a problem?

This said I'd have very serious doubt she would have any authority to intervene in anyway, certainly interact with manager /owner and then report but directing general public is a red herring.

AUDI20

Trouser Snake wrote: »

Covid compliance officer in the local petrol station yesterday on a power trip lining everyone up exactly on the spots in the deli queue.
Tensions were needlessly heightened by her carry on, people were socially distancing just fine before she intervened.

Great to see someone doing the job they are suppose to be doing. Fair play

Boggles

caveat emptor wrote: »

True but every school going age group has increased more than every other age group. :eek: Might have something to do with schools. Of course correlation does not mean causation.

Didn't the Korean study suggest that the 10-14 age bracket could be the "best" at transmitting Covid?

Blondini

caveat emptor wrote: »

True but every school going age group has increased more than every other age group. :eek: Might have something to do with schools. Of course correlation does not mean causation.

Oh no, someone is going to come along with a graph about pirates or something that they got at their FETAC level 1 statistics night class. Cringe.

stephenjmcd

Gruffalux wrote: »

They should take our example. Let the testing and contact and trace system falter. Numbers stop rising then.

Well Berlin have issues now also

https://twitter.com/SiobhanDowling/status/1319900406961635328?s=19

Fr_Dougal

caveat emptor wrote: »

Cases doubling week on week in the 10-14 age group and almost doubling in the 15-19.
Mid term coming at the right time.

Also a large increase in the age group of their parents.

Must be a lot of bar still open on the QT.

But it’s not the schools...

Boggles

Blondini wrote: »

Oh no, someone is going to come along with a graph about pirates or something that they got at their FETAC level 1 statistics night class. Cringe.

None of that transmission is happening indoors in cramped over crowded poorly ventilated rooms.

Because "data".

Parents are picking it up ahhhh, out in the community somewhere and bringing it home.

Trouser Snake

Dempo1 wrote: »

I think it's good there's some checks taking place, the fact she had to line people up suggests a problem?

This said I'd have very serious doubt she would have any authority to intervene in anyway, certainly interact with manager /owner and then report but directing general public is a red herring.

Was thinking that. She has the owners authority to instruct people or ask them to exit the premises, soon as it gets heated though she needs to be very wary.
Her involvement brings more problems than solving them.

MerlinSouthDub

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Also a large increase in the age group of their parents.

Must be a lot of bar still open on the QT.

But it’s not the schools...

It clearly isn't. The reproductive rate has dropped to 1, and the schools are open. The data you are looking at predates the impact of nationwide level 3. So, yes, it was and is the pubs and social gatherings. Young adults have, by some margin, the highest infection rates.

Gruffalux

Trouser Snake wrote: »

Another proud sheep here.

This week one of my kids sent me a facebook post they were disgusted by where people in a large midlands town were being invited to participate in a 'peaceful' no mask protest. The intention was to gather and then en masse enter the largest supermarket in town and spread out to infiltrate the whole building thus making known their opinion to the poor masked sheep. The organisers and anyone who was attracted to participate in such a manouevre are thundering gobshytes of very low intellect and not the giant brains they foolishly imagine themselves to be leading the sheeple from darkness.

WoollyRedHat

People need to stop using the Spring as a baseline for comparing hospitalizations and ICU admissions against cases. It is clear that cases in Europe and beyond were in the thousands (some in the 5 digits) back then. Any comparison to first wave graphs as a meaningful barometer for majority of Countries is redundant as it ignores the fact that testing was not at level it is now.

PowerToWait

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

I have to say the communications 'buy in' strategy for latest restrictions from the government is ineffective at best and non-existent at worst. Use of interactive multimedia that illustrates how virus spreads, and steps needed for suppression has been minimal.Take the index case that leads to say 40 odd infections, this could be used as a centrepiece for.a visual marketing campaign, as a public health broadcast over web and television to explain how cases quickly lead to clusters and consequences for public health and health system.

Slogans are no longer working, ' Stay Safe' etc. worked back in March but is redundant now. I'm constantly reminded of Coronavirus risk via radio and on public transport but I'd argue this type of repetitive and intrusive communications is counter-prodyctive as pandemic fatigue sets in. We need more innovative and informative communication strategies (that avoid condescension) to get people's attention and ultimately buy-in.

Was saying as much to a friend a a few days ago. Communication has been really awful, almost a complete failure.

But I do get exasperated when I see and hear people saying Ireland is the only country to have restrictions, when Wales is totally locked down from today as just the closest example.

It’s just like February in many respects, only I think it will be ultimately be much worse as people have lost any fear.

There are more than 4000 people in hospital in the Czech Republic with a population just twice ours.

France and Belgium are on the way to a catastrophe with their health systems which are leagues ahead of ours.

Why people think we will be any different is puzzling.

Boggles

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It clearly isn't. The reproductive rate has dropped to 1, and the schools are open. The data you are looking at predates the impact of nationwide level 3. So, yes, it was and is the pubs and social gatherings. Young adults have, by some margin, the highest infection rates.

Prof Nolan said the reproductive rate is estimated at around 1.3 and 1.4

.

MerlinSouthDub

Boggles wrote: »

.

That was based on data up until Tuesday. We have had 3 further days of flat case numbers. Dr Nolan's numbers will update next week.

WoollyRedHat

PowerToWait wrote: »

Was saying as much to a friend a a few days ago. Communication has been really awful, almost a complete failure.

But I do get exasperated when I see and hear people saying Ireland is the only country to have restrictions, when Wales is totally locked down from today as just the closest example.

It’s just like February in many respects, only I think it will be ultimately be much worse as people have lost any fear.

There are more than 4000 people in hospital in the Czech Republic with a population just twice ours.

France and Belgium are on the way to a catastrophe with their health systems which are leagues ahead of ours.

Why people think we will be any different is puzzling.

Indeed, people love to paint this picture that we have one of most restrictive measures as if we are this massive outlier/exception. We are not, we were just slightly ahead of certain European countries who have been slow to react to impacts of a second wave.I have no doubt that if we had remained in Level 2 restrictions our case numbers would be much higher

Go to Victoria if you want to experience what restrictive measures really feel like. A heads up, you will be forced into a 2-week mandatory quarantine on arrival, something that doesn't exist as a requirement on this island.

Boggles

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

That was based on data up until Tuesday. We have had 3 further days of flat case numbers. Dr Nolan's numbers will update next week.

Sorry "we"?

Da Fuq?

You mean you have pulled an R number out of you arsé?

Show your work if that isn't the case.

Trouser Snake

Gruffalux wrote: »

This week one of my kids sent me a facebook post they were disgusted by where people in a large midlands town were being invited to participate in a 'peaceful' no mask protest. The intention was to gather and then en masse enter the largest supermarket in town and spread out to infiltrate the whole building thus making known their opinion to the poor masked sheep. The organisers and anyone who was attracted to participate in such a manouevre are thundering gobshytes of very low intellect and not the giant brains they foolishly imagine themselves to be leading the sheeple from darkness.

Now you're just taking me out of context.
Hang on to your veiled insults for elsewhere, I'm sure you'll find somewhere on your social media network for them.

s1ippy

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well Berlin have issues now also

https://twitter.com/SiobhanDowling/status/1319900406961635328?s=19

I believe that's called "pulling an Irish".

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/irish-media-needs-to-take-a-look-at-how-it-is-covering-pandemic-1.4389265
Whilst I agree that the media are definitely contributing to the anxiety people feel, it's really more the contention that actually does exist between NPHET, HSE and government that gets people on edge.

Also I want to know what their metric is for saying mental health problems didn't rise during the last lockdown, because personally I'm a fucking shadow of my former self even if I didn't access any mental health services; not to be flippant, but I think about suicide on the regular these days, and worry about many friends and family who are in similarly fragile places. With no social interaction, no entertainment, the job losses and evictions on the way, winter, there's absolutely no way most people are getting out unscathed and it's probably healthier to acknowledge the mental scars.

Weekly or bi-weekly figures, I don't really know about that. Yeah could work I guess. I dunno.

mean gene

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well Berlin have issues now also

https://twitter.com/SiobhanDowling/status/1319900406961635328?s=19

I actually don't see the problem with people doing their own contacting lazy gits

MerlinSouthDub

Boggles wrote: »

Sorry "we"?

Da Fuq?

You mean you have pulled an R number out of you arsé?

Show your work if that isn't the case.

If you don't think 3 more days of flat cases numbers will reduce the estimate of the reproductive rate, then I suggest you read the details of the models Dr Nolan uses. It is all publicly available.

Boggles

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

If you don't think 3 more days of flat cases numbers will reduce the estimate of the reproductive rate, then I suggest you read the details of the models Dr Nolan uses. It is all publicly available.

I didn't suggest anything.

You have declared the reproductive number to be at 1.

I want you to back that up with whatever modelling you have done to come to that figure.

It's a simple enough request, so in your own good time.

CofMixture

Trouser Snake wrote: »

Covid compliance officer in the local petrol station yesterday on a power trip lining everyone up exactly on the spots in the deli queue.
Tensions were needlessly heightened by her carry on, people were socially distancing just fine before she intervened.

That fact that you're being mocked for this boggles my mind. I've come around to thinking recently that there's a whole section of our society that crave being told what to think and do - that a part of them love these harsh restrictions and the blame game that goes with it.

s1ippy

CofMixture wrote: »

That fact that you're being mocked for this boggles my mind. I've come around to thinking recently that there's a whole section of our society that crave being told what to think and do - that a part of them love these harsh restrictions and the blame game that goes with it.

You're probably right; in my part time job as a dominiatrix, business is absolutely booming.

kwestfan08

mean gene wrote: »

I actually don't see the problem with people doing their own contacting lazy gits

Me either tbh. Like if you get your positive test do you just throw your phone out the window? I'd like to think if I had it I'd ring or text people I was in contact with over the previous couple of days and give them the heads up.

Loafing Oaf

mean gene wrote: »

I actually don't see the problem with people doing their own contacting lazy gits

Because it can be awkward and embarrassing, particularly if you initiated the contact, so a lot of people will chicken out.

Boggles

CofMixture wrote: »

That fact that you're being mocked for this boggles my mind. I've come around to thinking recently that there's a whole section of our society that crave being told what to think and do - that a part of them love these harsh restrictions and the blame game that goes with it.

They were asked to stand on a spot on the floor.

That is some serious snowflaking if that "anecdote" has upset you

suicide_circus

caveat emptor wrote: »

Cases doubling week on week in the 10-14 age group and almost doubling in the 15-19.
Mid term coming at the right time.

But how can this be? Schools are not a source of transmission

seamus

kwestfan08 wrote: »

Me either tbh. Like if you get your positive test do you just throw your phone out the window? I'd like to think if I had it I'd ring or text people I was in contact with over the previous couple of days and give them the heads up.

Aside from the fact that many people would feel uncomfortable making the call, the tracing system allows to track a chain of infections, to better understand how and where it was spreading.

The infamous couple who infected 56 others could only have been identified through a formal tracing system.

WoollyRedHat

s1ippy wrote: »

You're probably right; in my part time job as a dominiatrix, business is absolutely booming.

Apparently Irish political parties are big into the old whip.

ZX7R

s1ippy wrote: »

I believe that's called "pulling an Irish".

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/irish-media-needs-to-take-a-look-at-how-it-is-covering-pandemic-1.4389265
Whilst I agree that the media are definitely contributing to the anxiety people feel, it's really more the contention that actually does exist between NPHET, HSE and government that gets people on edge.

Also I want to know what their metric is for saying mental health problems didn't rise during the last lockdown, because personally I'm a fucking shadow of my former self even if I didn't access any mental health services; not to be flippant, but I think about suicide on the regular these days, and worry about many friends and family who are in similarly fragile places. With no social interaction, no entertainment, the job losses and evictions on the way, winter, there's absolutely no way most people are getting out unscathed and it's probably healthier to acknowledge the mental scars.

Weekly or bi-weekly figures, I don't really know about that. Yeah could work I guess. I dunno.

There was an interesting article on the German and polish Media during the week quoting Angela merrkle saying that they will have uncontrollable spread of the virus by the end of next week, ask will further restrictions be implement she replied that it appears the majority of german nationals have decided to live there lives with covid and accept the consequences of that.
I didn't see any reports on Irish media in relation to it

MerlinSouthDub

Boggles wrote: »

I didn't suggest anything.

You have declared the reproductive number to be at 1.

I want you to back that up with whatever modelling you have done to come to that figure.

It's a simple enough request, so in your own good time.

I've been using this model. You need to assemble the daily data in Ireland yourself. I use the swab data from the hub. Currently getting a r estimate of 1.03. let me know if your calculations show something different.

https://github.com/rtcovidlive/covid-model

CofMixture

Boggles wrote: »

They were asked to stand on a spot on the floor.

That is some serious snowflaking if that "anecdote" has upset you

The fact it's happening on a societal level like we're back in junior infants is worrying yeah.

mloc123

suicide_circus wrote: »

But how can this be? Schools are not a source of transmission

That graph shows cases have pretty much doubled in all age groups up to 44...

Boggles

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I've been using this model. You need to assemble the daily data in Ireland yourself. I use the swab data from the hub. Currently getting a r estimate of 1.03. let me know if your calculations show something different.

https://github.com/rtcovidlive/covid-model

That's the model Nolan uses?

:pac:

Get up the yard.

We will be out of level 5 by Wednesday so.

pjohnson

CofMixture wrote: »

The fact it's happening on a societal level like we're back in junior infants is worrying yeah.

Well if people didnt behave like junior infants they wouldnt need to treated like junior infants.

s1ippy

ZX7R wrote: »

There was an interesting article on the German and polish Media during the week quoting Angela merrkle saying that they will have uncontrollable spread of the virus by the end of next week, ask will further restrictions be implement she replied that it appears the majority of german nationals have decided to live there lives with covid and accept the consequences of that.
I didn't see any reports on Irish media in relation to it

Personally I hate that and it seems very risky, even for a health system that's very good like Germany's.

Hypothetically if our health system was 3-4 times more robust, we could tell people to work away.

It's a bit of a selfish approach by each German/Polish person who decides they couldn't be bothered with it anymore. But then it's a bit of a cop out from the governments who didn't do more to stop it from getting out of control.

We've got a very long time with this virus left, I'm sure the people who want it to be left run out of control will have their day in the sun too, it's only fair and it looks like it's pretty feckin inevitable given the way covid is mismanaged.

MerlinSouthDub

Boggles wrote: »

:pac:

Get up the yard.

We will be out of level 5 by Wednesday so.

Not what I'm saying at all. An R of one leaves us with stable cases numbers, but at too high a level. We need level 5 to reduce case numbers. It is great news that level 3 is enough to stabilise, but we need more.

Nephet have a target of 0.5 as the R number after the 6 weeks I read somewhere

ZX7R

s1ippy wrote: »

Personally I hate that and it seems very risky, even for a health system that's very good like Germany's.

Hypothetically if our health system was 3-4 times more robust, we could tell people to work away.

It's a bit of a selfish approach by each German/Polish person who decides they couldn't be bothered with it anymore. But then it's a bit of a cop out from the governments who didn't do more to stop it from getting out of control.

We've got a very long time with this virus left, I'm sure the people who want it to be left run out of control will have their day in the sun too, it's only fair and it looks like it's pretty feckin inevitable given the way covid is mismanaged.

Hard to know what will happen no matter what side of the fence it's a scary time

Boggles

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Not what I'm saying at all. An R of one leaves us with stable cases numbers, but at too high a level. We need level 5 to reduce case numbers. It is great news that level 3 is enough to stabilise, but we need more.

What you are saying that in 3 days the Reproductive number has dropped by .3 or .4.

You offered zero evidence for this apart from a link to someones model that you claimed Nolan uses.

Obviously in reality the reproductive is based on far more variables than 3 days of headline data.

Widdensushi

I guess we will see Tuesday

MerlinSouthDub

Widdensushi wrote: »

I guess we will see Tuesday

Yes, let's see next week. Hope to see cases numbers staying stable (or perhaps even starting to fall) over the next few days

Happydays2020

6 wrote: »

Nephet have a target of 0.5 as the R number after the 6 weeks I read somewhere

I think the Govt will definitely move to Level 3 after the 6 weeks, unless there are outlying areas which still have high numbers who will remain at level 5 perhaps for another week.

They also need to have the airport testing regime in place by early December to allow people come home.

Boggles

Widdensushi wrote: »

I guess we will see Tuesday

I doubt it, Thursday typically is when Nolan gives his presentations.

But the point remains, it's farcical and remedial in the extreme to look at 3 headline days of data and pretend to know what the reproductive value is.