Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

GazzaL

Level 3 worked, yet they ****ed the whole country into level 5. #ThanksTony

ACitizenErased

I wouldn't go dissing level 5 just yet. 4 weeks of it could seriously seriously reduce the case numbers, more than initially thought.

MerlinSouthDub

GazzaL wrote: »

Level 3 worked, yet they ****ed the whole country into level 5. #ThanksTony

I'd expect himself and Philip Nolan will apologise next week.

Blondini

GazzaL wrote: »

Level 3 worked, yet they ****ed the whole country into level 5. #ThanksTony

I love positivity about numbers but I think the celebrations are a little too early.

Wolf359f

GazzaL wrote: »

Level 3 worked, yet they ****ed the whole country into level 5. #ThanksTony

The only thing level 3 done (or looks to be doing) is slowing the growth rate and eventually perhaps lower cases. But it's far too slow doing it.
What it shows (we wouldn't have known if the government didn't try level 3) is that it's possible to open up straight to level 3 eventually and they should have data now to see how long we can sustain level 3.

Wolf359f

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Think the max possible number today if they include the backlog of 200 is roughly 1100

The positive cases are up to midnight last night, I'm sure they can ask for some of today's cases if they wanted to get a higher number! Would be stretching it though. Serves no purpose.

With the bank holiday, we won't have the swab details till Tuesday, I hate this flying blind into the announcement at 6ish with case numbers.

MerlinSouthDub

Wolf359f wrote: »

The only thing level 3 done (or looks to be doing) is slowing the growth rate and eventually perhaps lower cases. But it's far too slow doing it.
What it shows (we wouldn't have known if the government didn't try level 3) is that it's possible to open up straight to level 3 eventually and they should have data now to see how long we can sustain level 3.

It wasn't that slow having an impact though. We started to see the stability and fall from Sunday onwards, just about 12 days after nationwide level 3. That's when you'd expect to see its effects. But I do agree level 3 won't see cases fall quickly.

expectationlost

GazzaL wrote: »

Level 3 worked, yet they ****ed the whole country into level 5. #ThanksTony

90% of residents and all but one nursing staff in nursing home test positive for Covid-19, Dáil told

it did? tell them https://www.thejournal.ie/nursing-home-cases-5241138-Oct2020/

MerlinSouthDub

Blondini wrote: »

I love positivity about numbers but I think the celebrations are a little too early.

It's a full 7 days of improvement. I wouldn't be celebrating anything but the trend is firmly established.

Stheno

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I wouldn't go dissing level 5 just yet. 4 weeks of it could seriously seriously reduce the case numbers, more than initially thought.

They are to review after four weeks of level 5 which is mid November

Wolf359f

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It wasn't that slow having an impact though. We started to see the stability and fall from Sunday onwards, just about 12 days after nationwide level 3. That's when you'd expect to see its effects. But I do agree level 3 won't see cases fall quickly.

It had weird effects in Dublin, took 5 weeks and it's still up and down in Dublin. Can be plenty of reasons for that though. It can also be a painfully slow start and then drop quicker. We have no idea. Like many countries, we're winging it!

The 7 day positivity dropping is a really encouraging sign though, can't argue with that.

MerlinSouthDub

Wolf359f wrote: »

It had weird effects in Dublin, took 5 weeks and it's still up and down in Dublin. Can be plenty of reasons for that though. It can also be a painfully slow start and then drop quicker. We have no idea. Like many countries, we're winging it!

The 7 day positivity dropping is a really encouraging sign though, can't argue with that.

I don't think what happened in Dublin was that weird (in hindsight). Rates in Meath, for example, were increasing massively and that inevitably spread to Dublin.

BringBackMick

Stheno wrote: »

They are to review after four weeks of level 5 which is mid November

It'll be the usual, ah but if we wait 2 more weeks it will even lower...then there will be rumbling if we get it down to 50-80 cases a day, oh maybe we should go for eradication? If we just hold on till after Christmas.....

Be prepared

BringBackMick

Wolf359f wrote: »

It had weird effects in Dublin, took 5 weeks and it's still up and down in Dublin. Can be plenty of reasons for that though. It can also be a painfully slow start and then drop quicker. We have no idea. Like many countries, we're winging it!

The 7 day positivity dropping is a really encouraging sign though, can't argue with that.

The ban on household visits was the key to bringing the r below 1.0

It was bumping around 1.0-1.3, banning household visits brought it to 0.8

Benimar

Positive swab numbers have leveled off. Average over last week is 1025 per day. High was 1152 and low was 902.

That would tend to suggest that Level 3 slows and eventually stops growth, but an average case count per day of 1000 isn’t sustainable.

Hopefully Level 5 drives figures down but way too early to tell.

Zebra3

suicide_circus wrote: »

How many deaths a day are we averaging now

Don't be asking questions like that!!!

Focus on case numbers, focus on potential deaths, and say "the next two weeks will be critical".

Just no critical thinking!!!

Wolf359f

BringBackMick wrote: »

The ban on household visits was the key to bringing the r below 1.0

It was bumping around 1.0-1.3, banning household visits brought it to 0.8

It's very hard to get to grips, we've had so many changes over the past few weeks between level 3 for Dublin and Donegal, then 4 for Donegal, then household visits banned. Hopefully they can analyse all the data and find out what measures work effectively and we can try do up a living with covid plan lol.

MerlinSouthDub

Benimar wrote: »

Positive swab numbers have leveled off. Average over last week is 1025 per day. High was 1152 and low was 902.

That would tend to suggest that Level 3 slows and eventually stops growth, but an average case count per day of 1000 isn’t sustainable.

Hopefully Level 5 drives figures down but way too early to tell.

I think average in previous 7 days to last Saturday was 1079. So a fall of 5% in a week. Yeah, not enough really

blade1

Got stuck at checkpoint going into town for 10/15 minutes.
Guards were checking bus eireann bus.
They pulled a fella off it.
When I came back out 20min later, the guy was standing in the cold/rain with his bags at the side of road.

jackboy

Wolf359f wrote: »

The only thing level 3 done (or looks to be doing) is slowing the growth rate and eventually perhaps lower cases. But it's far too slow doing it.
What it shows (we wouldn't have known if the government didn't try level 3) is that it's possible to open up straight to level 3 eventually and they should have data now to see how long we can sustain level 3.

Level 3 would have had a great chance of working with some minor alterations. The communion, birthday, GAA, student parties were allowed to continue and were a huge source of spikes in communities.

caveat emptor

BringBackMick wrote: »

The ban on household visits was the key to bringing the r below 1.0

It was bumping around 1.0-1.3, banning household visits brought it to 0.8

Yeah this had the biggest effect I suspect. It was also one of the hardest restrictions for the majority.

Jimson

mloc123 wrote: »

And yet the 18-24 year age group has an infection rate about 3 times the overall average. The same age group that socialise the most..

The younger you are the more asymptomatic the symptoms are, think about it.

Why is it rampant in nursing homes? Because there showing symptoms and getting tested.

How many of these 18-24 would have siblings in schools? A lot of this age group in college as well.

Also we were at 50 cases a day with house parties rampant across the country. Why is it only when the schools went back its up to 1300

prunudo

blade1 wrote: »

Got stuck at checkpoint going into town for 10/15 minutes.
Guards were checking bus eireann bus.
They pulled a fella off it.
When I came back out 20min later, the guy was standing in the cold/rain with his bags at the side of road.

Was he not wearing a mask?

MerlinSouthDub

Jimson wrote: »

The younger you are the more asymptomatic the symptoms are, think about it.

Why is it rampant in nursing homes? Because there showing symptoms!!!

How many of these 18-24 would have siblings in schools? A lot of this age group in college as well.

Yes I think it highly likely that young adults have infected some of their younger siblings. That's what the data looks like anyway.

Wolf359f

jackboy wrote: »

Level 3 would have had a great chance of working with some minor alterations. The communion, birthday, GAA, student parties were allowed to continue and were a huge source of spikes in communities.

Could work at a different time. The communions, GAA finals all occured at the same time. Opening back up in December at level 3, it could work if they keep the enforcement.

lostintipp

Have they done anything to limit air travel into Ireland? I notice over 80000 cases in the US and 40000 cases in France yesterday, can people just hop on a plane, fill out a form then just wander about the country?

Jimson

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Yes I think it highly likely that young adults have infected some of their younger siblings. That's what the data looks like anyway.

really so your saying 1000 students packed into a school have nothing to do with the spread of the virus. Really?

Id love for every primary and secondary school student to be tested in the country i think you would be in for a shock

Boggles

Jimson wrote: »

really so your saying 1000 students packed into a school have nothing to do with the spread of the virus. Really?

Id love for every primary and secondary school student to be tested in the country i think you would be in for a shock

They'd have to get a job in a meat factory.

Goldrickssan

lostintipp wrote: »

Have they done anything to limit air travel into Ireland? I notice over 80000 cases in the US and 40000 cases in France yesterday, can people just hop on a plane, fill out a form then just wander about the country?

There's no point in coming here right now.

But generally no, you have to fill in a form to say you're self isolating but as with most of the 'rules' it's not enforced.

Away With The Fairies

lostintipp wrote: »

Have they done anything to limit air travel into Ireland? I notice over 80000 cases in the US and 40000 cases in France yesterday, can people just hop on a plane, fill out a form then just wander about the country?

It's scandalous. If we get numbers low again, they need to be doing something with incoming passengers into the country with mandatory quarantine. Complete disregard for the health of the people living here to allow such abuse of their "advice".

Jimson

Boggles wrote: »

They'd have to get a job in a meat factory.

That made me laugh

MerlinSouthDub

Jimson wrote: »

really so your saying 1000 students packed into a school have nothing to do with the spread of the virus. Really?

Id love for every primary and secondary school student to be tested in the country i think you would be in for a shock

You can construct what ever theory you like. The data is clear - much higher infection rates in young adults.

Strumms

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I wouldn't go dissing level 5 just yet. 4 weeks of it could seriously seriously reduce the case numbers, more than initially thought.

The timing of it pre Christmas too was crucial... stop us being fücked dot com going into the new year.

Jimson

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

You can construct what ever theory you like. The data is clear - much higher infection rates in young adults.

Yea I've looked at all the data, that is only for people who show symptoms and got tested.

The younger you are the more asymptomatic you are.
There could be a class of 30 now in a school and not one of them show symptoms.

How do you not get that. Your going on numbers when people showed symptoms and got tested.

Schools are much better environments than meat factories and nursing homes are they they?

Stheno

Over 15k cases in Czechia which would be the equivalent of 7k cases here

MerlinSouthDub

Jimson wrote: »

Yea I've looked at all the data, that is only for people who show symptoms and got tested.

The younger you are the more asymptomatic you are.
There could be a class of 30 now in a school and not one of them show symptoms.

How do you not get that.

UK ONS data - take a look. Random sample, so totally unbiased. It proves lower rates of infection in school children than in young adults. Massively lower for primary school children. It's great data, and totally debunks your asymptomatic theory. Yes, it's UK data but zero reason to think it would be different here.

Jimson

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

UK ONS data - take a look. Random sample, so totally unbiased. It proves lower rates of infection in school children than in young adults. Massively lower for primary school children. It's great data, and totally debunks your asymptomatic theory. Yes, it's UK data but zero reason to think it would be different here.

I have and don't believe everything you read on one sample of information.

Why were stable at 50 a day until the schools reopened.
Why is that?

lostintipp

Jimson wrote: »

Yea I've looked at all the data, that is only for people who show symptoms and got tested.

The younger you are the more asymptomatic you are.
There could be a class of 30 now in a school and not one of them show symptoms.

How do you not get that. Your going on numbers when people showed symptoms and got tested.

Schools are much better environments than meet factories and nursing homes are they they?

But you think that these asymptomatic children go round infecting everyone other than their own parents, because as the parents are probably adults then they are unlikely to be asymptomatic, so once the parents get sick and get tested they also test the their children.

MerlinSouthDub

Jimson wrote: »

I have and don't believe everything you read on one sample of information.

Why were stable at 50 a day until the schools reopened.
Why is that?

You don't believe a large random sample, retested every single week? If you're not going to take account of data when forming your views, then I'm afraid this discussion is pointless

Non solum non ambulabit

Wolf359f wrote: »

The positive cases are up to midnight last night, I'm sure they can ask for some of today's cases if they wanted to get a higher number! Would be stretching it though. Serves no purpose.

With the bank holiday, we won't have the swab details till Tuesday, I hate this flying blind into the announcement at 6ish with case numbers.

We have daily swab data now including Sunday so Bank holiday Monday should be the same

crossman47

Jimson wrote: »

I have and don't believe everything you read on one sample of information.

Why were stable at 50 a day until the schools reopened.
Why is that?

Possibly nothing to do with children but possibly parents gossiping outside,

Goldrickssan

Stheno wrote: »

Over 15k cases in Czechia which would be the equivalent of 7k cases here

I've been waiting to hear about the causes in Czechia

ziggyman17

hopefully if cases drop, we will get to see restaurants and pubs open with the proper restrictions in place, so we can go out and enjoy a meal and drink this Christmas,

Jimson

crossman47 wrote: »

Possibly nothing to do with children but possibly parents gossiping outside,

https://www.rte.ie/news/education/2020/1007/1170104-schools-covid-19/

Yea nothing to do with parents.

Icyseanfitz

are we the only EU/western country seeing a stabilization/decrease?

Jimson

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

You don't believe a large random sample, retested every single week? If you're not going to take account of data when forming your views, then I'm afraid this discussion is pointless

https://www.rte.ie/news/education/2020/1007/1170104-schools-covid-19/


Keep looking at pointless stats though. I'm sure there not passing onto parents or their siblings though.

Clonmel1000

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

It's scandalous. If we get numbers low again, they need to be doing something with incoming passengers into the country with mandatory quarantine. Complete disregard for the health of the people living here to allow such abuse of their "advice".

I’d say the Americans and french are just mad to come to Ireland to get a taste of Irish cead Mile failte during the strictest lockdown of any country in Europe.

blade1

prunudo wrote: »

Was he not wearing a mask?

No he wasn't.
But the only bus stop before checkpoint is 15 miles earlier.
Would he even have been allowed on the bus without one.
I assume it was mask related or non essential travel led to his ejection.

bennyl10

GazzaL wrote: »

Level 3 worked, yet they ****ed the whole country into level 5. #ThanksTony

It slows growth

It doesn’t drop it to the level needed

If level 5 drops us to a virtually 0 R then it was the right call

Non solum non ambulabit

This is a seasonal disease. Why is it so hard for people to understand that it was going to increase in the winter as businesses opened and people continued to do normal activities?