Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Goldrickssan

Ohmeha wrote: »

Dublin & ROI daily/7 Day/14 Day numbers and percentages for the past 3 weeks

Excluding any legitimates debates/concerns over backlogs and/or lack of contact tracing - the 7 day average numbers and percentage numbers are slowing down so I'm optimistic we are passing the peak of Ireland's 2nd wave, the next 5/6 weeks will be about how low the new case numbers are going so we can re-open in likely Level 3 for December

Day Month Date Dublin Weekly 7 Day 7 Day % 14 Day 14 Day % Non-Dub Weekly 7 Day 7 Day % 14 Day 14 Day %
Sunday October 4th 100 1,244 177.71 25.91% 159.43 20.52% 264 1,827 261.00 66.70% 208.79 102.42%
Monday October 5th 134 1,169 167.00 4.28% 163.57 22.33% 384 2,030 290.00 74.25% 228.21 111.59%
Tuesday October 6th 111 1,126 160.86 2.27% 159.07 19.47% 321 2,142 306.00 76.44% 239.71 117.22%
Wednesday October 7th 218 1,155 165.00 -2.70% 167.29 22.23% 393 2,295 327.86 73.47% 258.43 120.21%
Thursday October 8th 91 1,076 153.71 -9.58% 161.86 14.68% 415 2,438 348.29 69.54% 276.86 126.53%
Friday October 9th 123 1,001 143.00 -19.01% 159.79 11.46% 494 2,660 380.00 73.18% 299.71 133.76%
Saturday October 10th 241 1,018 145.43 -24.93% 169.57 16.60% 771 3,042 434.57 70.80% 344.50 160.00%
Sunday October 11th 226 1,144 163.43 -8.04% 170.57 14.15% 588 3,366 480.86 84.24% 370.93 163.07%
Monday October 12th 254 1,264 180.57 8.13% 173.79 10.94% 571 3,553 507.57 75.02% 398.79 171.68%
Tuesday October 13th 190 1,343 191.86 19.27% 176.36 15.97% 621 3,853 550.43 79.88% 428.21 182.12%
Wednesday October 14th 246 1,371 195.86 18.70% 180.43 15.77% 849 4,309 615.57 87.76% 471.71 193.90%
Thursday October 15th 288 1,568 224.00 45.72% 188.86 18.41% 917 4,811 687.29 97.33% 517.79 202.29%
Friday October 16th 254 1,699 242.71 69.73% 192.86 16.63% 746 5,063 723.29 90.34% 551.64 204.90%
Saturday October 17th 278 1,736 248.00 70.53% 196.71 16.06% 998 5,290 755.71 73.90% 595.14 196.09%
Sunday October 18th 408 1,918 274.00 67.66% 218.71 37.19% 875 5,577 796.71 65.69% 638.79 205.95%
Monday October 19th 235 1,899 271.29 50.24% 225.93 38.12% 796 5,802 828.86 63.30% 668.21 192.80%
Tuesday October 20th 203 1,912 273.14 42.37% 232.50 46.16% 1,066 6,247 892.43 62.13% 721.43 200.95%
Wednesday October 21st 263 1,929 275.57 40.70% 235.71 40.91% 904 6,302 900.29 46.25% 757.93 193.28%
Thursday October 22nd 244 1,885 269.29 20.22% 246.64 52.38% 822 6,207 886.71 29.02% 787.00 184.26%
Friday October 23rd 182 1,813 259.00 6.71% 250.86 57.00% 595 6,056 865.14 19.61% 794.21 164.99%
Saturday October 24th 192 1,727 246.71 -0.52% 247.36 45.87% 667 5,725 817.86 8.22% 786.79 128.38%

So you're saying the next 5/6 weeks are crucial?

mloc123

US2 wrote: »

Anything to deny good news ha

"Maybe I enjoy the misery..."

I get that vibe a lot on here

Hamsterchops

So I think everybody now agrees that whatever concoction they have Trump it cured him of Covid-19 (in a very quick and spectacular way)!
So while we're waiting for a vaccine to arrive why doesn't the whole world just procede with distributing to each and every Covid patient what ever he was given?

Probably a cost issue, right?

From how long ago are the daily figures based? Is it two or three weeks?

Goldrickssan

Hamsterchops wrote: »

So I think everybody now agrees that whatever concoction they have Trump it cured him of Covid-19 (in a very quick and spectacular way)!
So while we're waiting for a vaccine to arrive why doesn't the whole world just procede with distributing to each and every Covid patient what ever he was given?

Probably a cost issue, right?

Some people recover extremely quick, some people don't and most have no symptoms at all. Trump having a quick turn around isn't actually surprising looking at the statistics.

The miracle drug Trump is going on about isn't that now that further studies have been done.

gazzer

Cavan numbers going down or at least not as many daily cases as before. The crazy party behaviour of the crowd after the Cavan Senior and Junior finals GAA games 3 weeks ago created a ton of positive cases

stephenjmcd

s1ippy wrote: »

With the NVRL closed, I'm not sure the figures over the weekend are going to be reliable anyway.

NVRL is only carrying out about 600 tests roughly per day. All outsourced to other labs this weekend and next.

Its no longer the primary lab and hasn't been for a while. Dont think its going to have much impact if any with 17k + tests still being done

Harpy

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There was less positive swabs today than yesterday

Where can you see the positive swab numbers?

BringBackMick

So if things go well, two weeks from today we could be back down around 200 cases a day

4 weeks...100...Can we reopen at level 3- then? back to restaurants and non-wet pubs please. thanks

SPDUB

Boggles wrote: »

They'd have to get a job in a meat factory.

What's sad about that statement is they would probably be given one

MerlinSouthDub

stephenjmcd wrote: »

NVRL is only carrying out about 600 tests roughly per day. All outsourced to other labs this weekend and next.

Its no longer the primary lab and hasn't been for a while. Dont think its going to have much impact if any with 17k + tests still being done

And today's data will be based on yesterday's tests, when the NVRL was open. If there is any impact, you would see it on Sunday or Monday.

manniot2

Greater than 1 case today. Keep the country closed.

BringBackMick

manniot2 wrote: »

Greater than 1 case today. Keep the country closed.

This is what i fear in 3-4 weeks, we could be back around 100-200 cases daily and we will still have people saying, ah wait another few weeks !

giveitholly

And 12 cases denotifed as well

ACitizenErased

Harpy wrote: »

Where can you see the positive swab numbers?

https://covid-19.geohive.ie/datasets/f6d6332820ca466999dbd852f6ad4d5a_0/data?orderBy=Positive&orderByAsc=false

Sierra Oscar

Positive trend continues today. We're certainly doing a lot better than our closest neighbours.

manniot2

BringBackMick wrote: »

This is what i fear in 3-4 weeks, we could be back around 100-200 cases daily and we will still have people saying, ah wait another few weeks !

I remember there was a day in July when we had something like 60 cases and they were ‘deeply concerned’. They ain’t letting go of this limelight anytime soon, who will fill the late late schedule?

xhomelezz

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Positive trend continues today. We're certainly doing a lot better than our closest neighbours.

We do, as far as we can trust contact tracing.

If numbers continue to drop like this over the next few days, level 5 should be called off next week.

Inquitus

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Positive trend continues today. We're certainly doing a lot better than our closest neighbours.

Aye a couple of positive days, if this trend keeps up, when they do their review after 4 weeks, we might be able to take some tentative steps back to normality ahead of Christmas, with Food Pubs and Restaurants re-opening again!

Real Donald Trump

Deleted User wrote: »

If numbers continue to drop like this over the next few days, level 5 should be called off next week.

They should, but unfortunately I can't see them doing that with cases so high in NI. You'd have all them crossing the border again into Donegal etc...

manniot2

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye a couple of positive days, if this trend keeps up, when they do their review after 4 weeks, we might be able to take some tentative steps back to normality ahead of Christmas, with Food Pubs and Restaurants re-opening again!

There won’t be an indoor restaurant open in Ireland in 2020. Even micheal Martin said today that we need to get the reopening right, which is code for ‘we will open as slow as we can”

hmmm

Hamsterchops wrote: »

So I think everybody now agrees that whatever concoction they have Trump it cured him of Covid-19 (in a very quick and spectacular way)!
So while we're waiting for a vaccine to arrive why doesn't the whole world just procede with distributing to each and every Covid patient what ever he was given?

There's two issues. The Regeneron cocktail he got is still in trials. Those trials have to finish.

It's difficult to manufacture (at the moment). They're hoping to have a few hundred thousand doses by the end of the year, but there are 200,000 cases a day in Europe alone at the moment.

But hopefully it's going to part of the answer next year when manufacturing is scaled up.

GeorgeBailey

Deleted User wrote: »

If numbers continue to drop like this over the next few days, level 5 should be called off next week.

Almost a certainty.

Happydays2020

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

Almost a certainty.

Not a chance. They need to get things as low as they can. I don’t want it to go beyond the 6 weeks but earlier without low numbers will mean another lockdown for Christmas

I Am The Law

BringBackMick wrote: »

So if things go well, two weeks from today we could be back down around 200 cases a day

4 weeks...100...Can we reopen at level 3- then? back to restaurants and non-wet pubs please. thanks

Non-wet pubs, ffs what a nation of bullsh1ters.

Non solum non ambulabit

Curious_Case wrote: »

How can it be ascertained at this early stage that Covid-19 is seasonal ?

Hayfever is seasonal

We call the flu seasonal too but it's really our behaviours and habits that are seasonal

In my opinion, seasonality, in the case of a virus, suggests susceptibility to temperature, humidity and/or amount of sunlight

Covid is a respiratory disease.

Respiratory diseases are seasonal due to how we live in winter.

If you are more likely to catch it in doors then it's seasonal.

We have just come through a summer where the disease practically disappeared across Europe despite rigorous testing.

Dampsquid

hmmm wrote: »

There's two issues. The Regeneron cocktail he got is still in trials. Those trials have to finish.

It's difficult to manufacture (at the moment). They're hoping to have a few hundred thousand doses by the end of the year, but there are 200,000 cases a day in Europe alone at the moment.

But hopefully it's going to part of the answer next year when manufacturing is scaled up.

How can you possibly say with certainty that the medicine that trump had was the cure. One case does not prove anything. Thinking like this brings us back to the stone age and superstition.

Ficheall

Deleted User wrote: »

If numbers continue to drop like this over the next few days, level 5 should be called off next week.

Are you suggesting level 3 works?

Jimson

Jimson wrote: »

I have and don't believe everything you read on one sample of information.

Why were stable at 50 a day until the schools reopened.
Why is that?

We weren’t. In the month before schools opened cases increased 3 fold. In the month after schools opened cases increased 3 fold, and in the past 4 weeks, cases increased 3 fold

Loafing Oaf

Goldrickssan wrote: »

Some people recover extremely quick, some people don't and most have no symptoms at all. Trump having a quick turn around isn't actually surprising looking at the statistics.

Yeah most people in decent health, even at Trump's age, would not get seriously ill.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Positive trend continues today. We're certainly doing a lot better than our closest neighbours.

Averages overall:

ROI: 1 death per every 30 confirmed cases.

NI: 1 death per every 50 confirmed cases.

Non solum non ambulabit

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Averages overall:

ROI: 1 death per every 30 confirmed cases.

NI: 1 death per every 50 confirmed cases.

We aren't counting deaths the same. We aren't testing the same.

Happydays2020

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yeah most people in decent health, even at Trump's age, would not get seriously ill.

And he gets lots of vitamin D on the golf course

hmmm

Dampsquid wrote: »

How can you possibly say with certainty that the medicine that trump had was the cure. One case does not prove anything. Thinking like this brings us back to the stone age and superstition.

That's why the trials have to finish.

GeorgeBailey

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Not a chance. They need to get things as low as they can. I don’t want it to go beyond the 6 weeks but earlier without low numbers will mean another lockdown for Christmas

twas sarcasm.

boardise

branie2 wrote: »

RIP, the four people who died

An almighty enlarged R...I...P to all who succumb to C19 between now and 31/12/2020 would save the chore of daily posting for this year .

Actually I go further. I say RIP to all who have departed this life since the dawn of time and all who will expire from now to the end of time. That's me done .

And yes, I know that includes all the tyrants, murderers and rapists etc. -but hey I'm a big hearted guy -there's room for all at the inn of my magnanimity.

Yeah, it's kinda spooky that I'm wishing RIP to myself too- but I suppose that would be a default position anyway.

Widdensushi

Ficheall wrote: »

Are you suggesting level 3 works?

Are you suggesting the current figures have anything to do with level 5,it will another week at least before 5 would kick in to the numbers

lawrencesummers

All people care about is cases.


Numbers are down apparently.



Completely ignoring testing and tracing grounding to a halt, the two most vital components of actually detecting those who are positive.

Maybe is we close the labs altogether we can go to level 0?

caveat emptor

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

This is a seasonal disease. Why is it so hard for people to understand that it was going to increase in the winter as businesses opened and people continued to do normal activities?

Was that a rhetorical question? :eek:

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Dampsquid wrote: »

How can you possibly say with certainty that the medicine that trump had was the cure. One case does not prove anything. Thinking like this brings us back to the stone age and superstition.

Just like those lads back in the stone age, we may have no choice but to come out of the cave and face the world at some point.

So we may not have time to perfect everything, or take the requisite amount of time for comprehensive trials etc. An imperfect Regeneron (or other therapeutics) may be our best option at some point in the very near future.

Staying in the cave for too long, will return many of our economies back to the stone age too!

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Was that a rhetorical question? :eek:

Do you have a spreadsheet of saved posts for occasions like this or do you just enjoy trawling 3 month olds posts for perceived inconsistencies?

And there was nothing unreasonable in what you quoted, poster acknowledged there would be spikes but trusted social distancing to keep it stable. The Irish people on the other hand, we seemed to believe massive and frequent gatherings for college matches communions and a myriad of other reasons were acceptable from July through to about 2 weeks ago

spookwoman

Spiderman0081

Would I be right in thinking that a vast majority of posters on here believe that the reduction in cases over the last couple of days is due to the level 5 restrictions?

8k71ps

Here lads I wouldn't read too much into 2 days, I wouldn't raise your optimism before it's butchered if it's because of contact tracing collapse etc

Goldrickssan

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

Would I be right in thinking that a vast majority of posters on here believe that the reduction in cases over the last couple of days is due to the level 5 restrictions?

No I don't think so.

Most know it's due to level 3 going national.

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you have a spreadsheet of saved posts for occasions like this or do you just enjoy trawling 3 month olds posts for perceived inconsistencies?

And there was nothing unreasonable in what you quoted, poster acknowledged there would be spikes but trusted social distancing to keep it stable. The Irish people on the other hand, we seemed to believe massive and frequent gatherings for college matches communions and a myriad of other reasons were acceptable from July through to about 2 weeks ago

No I've got a good memory and there is a search function. Slight bit of a U-turn. Lecturing people on why there is no way it was seasonal in July while now wondering why people can't understand "of course cases would rise" as it's seasonal.

Throw in the test and trace will save us and I think people should remain humble about what other people should understand.

Jim_Hodge

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

Would I be right in thinking that a vast majority of posters on here believe that the reduction in cases over the last couple of days is due to the level 5 restrictions?

Not anybody with any sense. Too few days for a trend and too early into Level 5. We'd want to see a steeper reduction over time from a level 5.

seamus

If the contact tracing thing didn't put an end to Paul Reid's career, this ViraPro thing probably will.

It turns out the company that the HSE bought 3 million units of hand sanitiser from (which they've now had to remove), only came into existence in April.

Before that, they sold tourist tat; Oirish souvenirs.

If shady business and brown envelopes weren't involved, then it was incompetence on an enormous scale.

The HSE needs to be beheaded completely and reset. The entire management team are morons.

Goldrickssan

seamus wrote: »

If the contact tracing thing didn't put an end to Paul Reid's career, this ViraPro thing probably will.

It turns out the company that the HSE bought 3 million units of hand sanitiser from (which they've now had to remove), only came into existence in February.

Before that, they sold tourist tat; Oirish souvenirs.

If shady business and brown envelopes weren't involved, then it was incompetence on an enormous scale.

The HSE needs to be beheaded completely and reset. The entire management team are morons.

Standard HSE - get more money per capita than most countries, spend it in the worst way possible, increase management bonuses and salaries.

Rinse and repeat