Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

MarkY91

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

One anecdote. I can give you three where people were refused at Argos, Curry's and a local independent store. You'll always have some idiot not sticking to the letter of the rules.

Visited Argos twice this week and my and others weren't getting in the door without a reservation. They even made a guy go away to make own then come back a minute later to show a reservation code lol.

Away With The Fairies

whisky_galore wrote: »

News of Irish anti mask arsehole reported on in India.

https://www.indiatimes.com/amp/trending/wtf/ireland-man-smashes-wine-whiskey-bottles-told-to-wear-a-mask-526006.html

I read of the UK are bringing in AI cameras in their shops. It will recognise if you have a mask and won't let you in if you don't. Some Asian countries has them as well. We should as well, it avoids confronting these aggressive arseholes in shops.

Happydays2020

Boggles wrote: »

It's primarily the governance that are failing.

Personally I think a couple of ministers need to go.

The top level of the HSE needs to be disbanded and be directed by the department of health.

No, NPHET (the best talent in there) needs to be subsumed into Department of the Taoiseach to distance from the operational side of things. This is governance 101. Trust, process and expertise are the key ingredients for good decision making - right now we have perhaps a degree of expertise. The process fell down when advices were not implemented lock stock and barrel, and the trust was lost with the level 2 to level 5 change in advice.

I am not sure I would put my faith in the Department of Health. I would prefer the strong policy decisions on Covid response to come from the top which will better ensure implementation - there is little trust between DPER and Health.

As regards the Ministers you want to go - at least these Ministers were elected.

MerlinSouthDub

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

https://extra.ie/2020/10/25/news/irish-news/almost-40-of-schools-have-had-a-positive-covid-19-diagnosis-amid-growing-concern-from-parents

40% of schools have had a positive case.

According to the article, 900 school children tested positive. Considering there are hundreds of thousands of school children, that's an extraordinarily low rate. Good news, all the data is showing that schools are not causing spread.

Longing

I think we need to be below 50 cases a day come December. Level 3 is not going to be adhered too around Christmas especially staying within your own county at a time when you visit family and friends. Its a big ask to drop 200 cases per week but we need to get there and to strive for level 2 not 3.

OscarMIlde

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I picked up a virus in 2018 and has these types of symptoms for about a year. Was very disconcerting and difficult as the symptoms come and go.

Yep, had three years on and off myself following a chest infection. Couldn't work at all, and was dismissed by doctors as a hypochondriac. I had fairly mild asthma before, but it's quite severe now. One thing I will say is that I am now recovered and have no issues with exercise as long as my asthma is under control.

Not sure how covid sufferers will fare if the reports about fibrosis are true however. There is currently no cure for any fibrotic condition, and generally once pro-fibrotic pathways are activated to that extent the build of ECM/collagen continues even if the underlying trigger is removed. There is some debate about whether that is due to transcriptional shifts or whether the existence of fibrotic tissue itself is now an activating trigger as scar tissue negatively effects an organs function.

BringBackMick

I think they should extend midterm for another week, it will be a considerable break in the chain of transmission if they do it.

mcburns07

Goldrickssan wrote: »

https://gov.wales/coronavirus-firebreak-frequently-asked-questions

Seems fairly similar

And it’s also for two weeks only, not six.

iamwhoiam

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

According to the article, 900 school children tested positive. Considering there are hundreds of thousands of school children, that's an extraordinarily low rate. Good news, all the data is showing that schools are not causing spread.

There are half a million children enrolled in schools in Ireland . So its a very low rate of infection

Widdensushi

Longing wrote: »

I think we need to be below 50 cases a day come December. Level 3 is not going to be adhered too around Christmas especially staying within your own county at a time when you visit family and friends. Its a big ask to drop 200 cases per week but we need to get there and to strive for level 2 not 3.

Level 3 is not going to be adhered to so we have to strive for 2? Surely now it appears that level 3 can control this if there is enforcement then we should just aim for level 3 with the gardai given powers to enforce it where necessary. Going beyond that is a waste of money with open borders which there is no possibility of closing. We will have an influx of people from America etc in December as usual. Just get to 3 as soon as possible as try to live with covid as best we can.

Icyseanfitz

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

According to the article, 900 school children tested positive. Considering there are hundreds of thousands of school children, that's an extraordinarily low rate. Good news, all the data is showing that schools are not causing spread.

Considering the contact tracing loopholes/failures in schools you can be garunteed its a lot higher, but lets continue the party line, schools are safe.

MerlinSouthDub

BringBackMick wrote: »

I think they should extend midterm for another week, it will be a considerable break in the chain of transmission if they do it.

Why on earth would they do that? Every single data point shows schools are not a major driver of transmission

MerlinSouthDub

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Considering the contact tracing loopholes/failures in schools you can be garunteed its a lot higher, but lets continue the party line, schools are safe.

I've pointed many times to the UK ONS data on infection rates by age. A random sample which is unbiased and avoids all the issues you mention. Have you read it yet?

Happydays2020

Widdensushi wrote: »

Level 3 is not going to be adhered to so we have to strive for 2? Surely now it appears that level 3 can control this if there is enforcement then we should just aim for level 3 with the gardai given powers to enforce it where necessary. Going beyond that is a waste of money with open borders which there is no possibility of closing. We will have an influx of people from America etc in December as usual. Just get to 3 as soon as possible as try to live with covid as best we can.

The next 6 weeks are critical for the HSE and the CMO and GOVT Departments and airports/ports to prepare properly.

We need testing facilities in the airports for arrivals - and not something which should be charged for. Happy also to require clean tests before travelling from higher risk destinations.

wirelessdude01

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

According to the article, 900 school children tested positive. Considering there are hundreds of thousands of school children, that's an extraordinarily low rate. Good news, all the data is showing that schools are not causing spread.

Look at yesterday's Epidemiology Report, it shows 1254 cases in the 5-14 age range and 479 cases in the 0-4 age range for the previous fortnight.

Happydays2020

BringBackMick wrote: »

I think they should extend midterm for another week, it will be a considerable break in the chain of transmission if they do it.

Once it is combined with no mixing outside the home. Otherwise having groups of teenagers hanging around together for two weeks outside a regulated environment will be worse than school.

MerlinSouthDub

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Look at yesterday's Epidemiology Report, it shows 1254 cases in the 5-24 age range and 479 cases in the 0-4 age range for the previous fortnight.

I didn't say the article was accurate, I was just highlighting that in no way does the article show schools are a major source of transmission. Current infection rates on children are low compared to other age groups.

jackboy

Boggles wrote: »

NPHET have repeatedly said the goal is to get the cases down as much as they can before Christmas because they anticipate the reproductive number will at least double.

Have you a plan there yourself chief?

Yeah, don’t have a plan to crash the numbers so they can be let explode at Christmas followed by another hard lockdown to crash them again. That is insane and clearly NPHET and the government have pulled it out of their behinds.

If we just enforced the lower level restrictions there is a great chance they would work.

majcos

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

https://extra.ie/2020/10/25/news/irish-news/almost-40-of-schools-have-had-a-positive-covid-19-diagnosis-amid-growing-concern-from-parents

40% of schools have had a positive case.

The figures in that article, if it is read beyond the headline, provide reassurances that school seems to be a relatively safe environment.

501 positive cases in secondary schools out of over 350,000 secondary school students.

Mass testing in 634 schools of 15,632 showing positivity rate of 1.9% in secondary schools, 2.7% in primary school, with highest positivity rate in childcare facilities of 4.7% but even that is still lower than rate in wider community of 6.6%.

It’s a pity the article uses a sensationalist statistic for the heading which is the only part most people will read.

suicide_circus

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Why on earth would they do that? Every single data point shows schools are not a major driver of transmission

Call it an experiment

MerlinSouthDub

suicide_circus wrote: »

Call it an experiment

A completely pointless one. How would we strip out the effect of school closures from the impact of level 5? It's not as if kids won't be meeting eachother during the 1 extra week off anyway, rules or no rules

Icyseanfitz

majcos wrote: »

The figures in that article,if it is read beyond the headline, provide reassurances that school seems to be a relatively safe environment.

501 positive cases in secondary schools out of over 350,000 secondary school students.

Mass testing in 634 schools of 15,632 showing positivity rate of 1.9% in secondary schools, 2.7% in primary school, with highest positivity rate in childcare facilities of 4.7% but even that is still lower than rate in wider community of 6.6%.

It’s a pity the article uses a sensationalist statistic for the heading which is the only part most people will read.

The fact that 15k out if a million+ is considered mass testing is ridiculous

MerlinSouthDub

Hospital numbers down to 295 this morning. They usually increase over the weekend, I think

Icyseanfitz

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

A completely pointless one. How would we strip out the effect of school closures from the impact of level 5? It's not as if kids won't be meeting eachother during the 1 extra week off anyway, rules or no rules

Well thats purely the responsibility of parents to ensure their children are abiding by the rules.

eigrod

Hospitalisations down to 295

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

MerlinSouthDub

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Well thats purely the responsibility of parents to ensure their children are abiding by the rules.

Indeed. So, it won't happen.

majcos

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Considering the contact tracing loopholes/failures in schools you can be garunteed its a lot higher, but lets continue the party line, schools are safe.

Yes. Some cases are being missed but under diagnosis is not high and transmission rates in schools not high. If it was, the percentage of cases found in mass testing in schools would be higher than that in the wider community.

Mass testing is giving a low positivity rate which suggests that transmission is not as high in schools as other environments. Percentage positive in school age groups is lower than it is in community. Same has been found in other countries with regard to schools.

majcos

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

The fact that 15k out if a million+ is considered mass testing is ridiculous

It’s a large enough sample size to be able to make some inferences on positivity rates. Similar data on larger scale from other countries is giving the same results.

suicide_circus

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

A completely pointless one. How would we strip out the effect of school closures from the impact of level 5? It's not as if kids won't be meeting eachother during the 1 extra week off anyway, rules or no rules

But I thought kids interacting with each other (as they do in schools) is not a source of transmission?

khalessi

majcos wrote: »

Yes. Some cases are being missed but under diagnosis is not high and transmission rates in schools not high. If it was, the percentage of cases found in mass testing in schools would be higher than that in the wider community.

Mass testing is giving a low positivity rate which suggests that transmission is not as high in schools as other environments. Percentage positive in school age groups is lower than it is in community. Same has been found in other countries with regard to schools.

It may not be as high but when a teacher insisted on getting a class tested after HSE wanted only pod of covid+ve student tested, another 7 asympomatic children were discovered with covid.

It is great that they were asymptomatc but who could they or did they pass it on to and how long did they have it?

The parameters for what is considered a close contact in schools is narrower than other sectors, it is alost as if they don't want schools higlighted as sources of transmissions. You would wonder why.

MerlinSouthDub

suicide_circus wrote: »

But I thought kids interacting with each other (as they do in schools) is not a source of transmission?

Correct, that is what the data shows. It was you who proposed the experiment though. If you want an experiment, you need one which is capable of stripping out the effect you (not I) believes exists

KrustyUCC

Widdensushi wrote: »

Level 3 is not going to be adhered to so we have to strive for 2? Surely now it appears that level 3 can control this if there is enforcement then we should just aim for level 3 with the gardai given powers to enforce it where necessary. Going beyond that is a waste of money with open borders which there is no possibility of closing. We will have an influx of people from America etc in December as usual. Just get to 3 as soon as possible as try to live with covid as best we can.

Level three travel restrictions will be very hard to take in December

6 weeks of 5km minimum under December 1st

Level three is stay within your own county

That's no good to anyone with friends, family, relations partners in other counties

petes

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Correct, that is what the data shows. It was you who proposed the experiment though. If you want an experiment, you need one which is capable of stripping out the effect you (not I) believes exists

You have a strange way of looking at data. When talking about the schools follow the data, when we were talking about the data on Dublin's numbers a while ago it you said it was the other counties driving the numbers up despite looking directly at the 'data'. Seems you look at the data when it suits you.

KrustyUCC

Funny what I think will happen is level three for 1st December for two weeks

Then travel allowed 15th December to New Years

MerlinSouthDub

petes wrote: »

You have a strange way of looking at data. When talking about the schools follow the data, when we were talking about the data on Dublin's numbers a while ago it you said it was the other counties driving the numbers up despite looking directly at the 'data'. Seems you look at the data when it suits you.

You don't think the surge in Meath impacted Dublin? And, now that the rest of the country is stabilising, Dublin has stabilised again. And you think it's me who has a strange way of looking at the data....

is_that_so

eigrod wrote: »

Hospitalisations down to 295

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

A few days into Level 5 some metrics seem to be going the other way. If we are actually seeing a positive trend then 6 weeks will obviously be a success but one would wonder if this call was actually right in the first place.

petes

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

You don't think the surge in Meath impacted Dublin?

Seriously? You're questioning the data again but refuse to question anything about the data on schools?

Suited you at the time to blame other counties for the data in Dublin, you can't look at one set of data and make allowances for it but not the other.

is_that_so

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Funny what I think will happen is level three for 1st December for two weeks

Then travel allowed 15th December to New Years

Which should be spelt out now anyway even if we don't get there. People are still being kept in the dark and this kind of thing is more than a tad manipulative.

majcos

khalessi wrote: »

It may not be as high but when a teacher insisted on getting a class tested after HSE wanted only pod of covid+ve student tested, another 7 asympomatic children were discovered with covid.

It is great that they were asymptomatc but who could they or did they pass it on to and how long did they have it?

The parameters for what is considered a close contact in schools is narrower than other sectors, it is alost as if they don't want schools higlighted as sources of transmissions. You would wonder why.

The mass testing was specifically carried out in schools where there was a confirmed case/cases and in schools where based on public health risk assessment, there was a higher risk of transmission. So if anything, there was bias in the school related testing towards finding more positive cases but it still returned a low positivity rate.

There will always be exceptions to the normal rates that leads to a higher positivity rate than expected as in the situation you mention above, but decisions should not be made on anomalies as this one school is not a statistically significant sample. I don’t know any of the details of the scenario you mention but there may have been a specific reason cases were higher there. Perhaps there was a superspreader teacher there that led to that cluster.

I would rather base conclusions on positivity rate in schools on the analysis of data taken from the 634 schools than based on results in one school.

MerlinSouthDub

petes wrote: »

Seriously? You're questioning the data again but refuse to question anything about the data on schools?

What aspect of the data am I questioning? I really don't get what point you are making.

KrustyUCC

Philip Nolans modelling definitely seems to be far wrong again

1800 - 2500 cases a day by next Sunday

I'd hope hospital cases won't go up to 400 either

KrustyUCC

is_that_so wrote: »

Which should be spelt out now anyway even if we don't get there. People are still being kept in the dark and this kind of thing is more than a tad manipulative.

They'll never commit to anything unfortunately

Covid-19 confirmed cases in half of Northern Ireland schools

The PHA has been informed of 2,030 positive Covid cases in schools since teaching returned at the beginning of term.

There had been 608 Covid-19 so-called incidents in 519 schools up until 20 October, said the agency.

Overall, 86% of post-primary schools had at least one case since the start of term, compared to around 40% of primary schools and 66% of special schools.

Around three-quarters of schools (76%) in the Belfast City Council area have been affected by positive cases.

That local government district had the highest proportion of schools affected, just higher than the numbers recorded in Derry, Strabane and Omagh - the district with the second highest proportion.

Of school cases notified to the PHA, just over two-thirds (68%) were pupils and one-third (32%) were staff.

These should be included in the case numbers on the Island of Ireland.




https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54656456

is_that_so

KrustyUCC wrote: »

They'll never commit to anything unfortunately

Agreed but they'd get credit for being honest even if it meant Christmas was cancelled.

majcos

is_that_so wrote: »

A few days into Level 5 some metrics seem to be going the other way. If we are actually seeing a positive trend then 6 weeks will obviously be a success but one would wonder if this call was actually right in the first place.

Downward trends have happened too soon for it to be the effect of level 5 but any trend in the right direction is welcome!

smellyoldboot

I predict a sharp drop off in cases in 2/3 weeks time followed by a similar rise in the 2/3 weeks following that. Nothing to do with the mid term holidays just a coincidence. Call it a hunch.

KrustyUCC

smellyoldboot wrote: »

I predict a sharp drop off in cases in 2/3 weeks time followed by a similar rise in the 2/3 weeks following that. Nothing to do with the mid term holidays just a coincidence. Call it a hunch.

I hope you're wrong but that's definitely a worry

Ger Roe

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Philip Nolans modelling definitely seems to be far wrong again

1800 - 2500 cases a day by next Sunday

I'd hope hospital cases won't go up to 400 either

I think you might be misquoting him - he always says that his projections are based on 'if we do nothing'. If you introduce restrictions, then cases, hopefully, drop.

His projections are calculated at a specific time, taking account of the measures in force at that time and 'projecting' on that basis.

Boggles

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Philip Nolans modelling definitely seems to be far wrong again

1800 - 2500 cases a day by next Sunday

I'd hope hospital cases won't go up to 400 either

How do you know we don't have 1800 cases all ready? Predictions were based on the populous not changing there behavior.

But, that's right tracing is no longer important is the new narrative.

South Korean model, something, something....Look over there is Paul Reid trying trying to administer a PCR test to a dead hooker.

Ooopss Sorry, I'll try better, I'll aim for 15%.

Oh Paul you bullet proof scamp!

KrustyUCC

is_that_so wrote: »

Agreed but they'd get credit for being honest even if it meant Christmas was cancelled.

That's true

Surely they have an outline of what and where they want to go to?

Bigger issue is what NPHET and Tony will allow the government to do

They're already talking about calling for another lockdown in January even before this one kicked in