Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

is_that_so

majcos wrote: »

Downward trends have happened too soon for it to be the effect of level 5 but any trend in the right direction is welcome!

Pretty sure I said it wasn't the effect of Level 5 but 6 weeks will probably make it look that way anyway. Is it really the right call though? Remember this is the tail end of Level 3 we are seeing and some of that modelling is already showing signs of being way off.

Eod100

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Funny what I think will happen is level three for 1st December for two weeks

Then travel allowed 15th December to New Years

I was thinking would they have some exception for travel for Christmas if cases go down enough. Realistically lot of people will still travel regardless either way. If all the country is in level 3 say the stay within county restrictions seem a bit illogical (unless huge disparity in cases per 100k). I think people have to be given something to look forward to in this awful year. See Irish Rail only let's you book up to 12th December. Will be interesting to see when that will change.

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1320307797582614528?s=21

is_that_so

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That's true

Surely they have an outline of what and where they want to go to?

Bigger issue is what NPHET and Tony will allow the government to do

They're already talking about calling for another lockdown in January even before this one kicked in

This is unfortunately going to be the pattern and now that we've been in one Level 5 they'll find it easier to convince government of another one. You could easily see more things becoming "essential" if that's the case.

octsol

Hospital numbers down this morning again and daily cases starting to drop we seem to be on the right track again.

Happydays2020

Boggles wrote: »

How do you know we don't have 1800 cases all ready? Predictions were based on the populous not changing there behavior.

But, that's right tracing is no longer important is the new narrative.

South Korean model, something, something....Look over there is Paul Reid trying trying to administer a PCR test to a dead hooker.

Ooopss Sorry, I'll try better, I'll aim for 15%.

Oh Paul you bullet proof scamp!

Well the prediction is also 100 cases in ICU next Saturday. Unless we have secret ICU capacity, that one should be transparent.

mloc123

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Well thats purely the responsibility of parents to ensure their children are abiding by the rules.

Yeah... Because all parents do such a great job at that. Just need to look at the gangs of teenagers out every night setting off fireworks.

SleetAndSnow

Honestly think extending the midterm would be wrong. A teacher I know says her 6th year students are talking about how they have booked airbnbs for the current midterm and are planning on taking all the back roads etc to get there, and I've heard this from other families aswell doing the same thing. The new fine system isn't in place until the end of next week, once the mid term is up. I see a spike coming in two weeks but hopefully I am wrong.

All it takes is one person to get it and spread it

KrustyUCC

Boggles wrote: »

How do you know we don't have 1800 cases all ready? Predictions were based on the populous not changing there behavior.

But, that's right tracing is no longer important is the new narrative.

South Korean model, something, something....Look over there is Paul Reid trying trying to administer a PCR test to a dead hooker.

Ooopss Sorry, I'll try better, I'll aim for 15%.

Oh Paul you bullet proof scamp!

So you think there's been 1000 - 1700 additional cases not detected and reported over the past few days?

His modelling is worthless and just scaremongering if its not based in reality just worse case scenarios

Those worse case scenario were used to bring us to level 5

is_that_so

Ger Roe wrote: »

I think you might be misquoting him - he always says that his projections are based on 'if we do nothing'. If you introduce restrictions, then cases, hopefully, drop.

His projections are calculated at a specific time, taking account of the measures in force at that time and 'projecting' on that basis.

They are the data they used to call for Level 5. If we do nothing is based on a snapshot at that time , as we had with the ridiculous 15,000 cases in March. It can be wrong no matter how robust they claim it is.

Eod100

is_that_so wrote: »

This is unfortunately going to be the pattern and now that we've been in one Level 5 they'll find it easier to convince government of another one. You could easily see more things becoming "essential" if that's the case.

Seems one of the only options left if zero covid strategy is not feasible is these rolling restrictions unfortunately. Hopefully it's not level 5 in January but some form of restrictions may be needed until a vaccine.

is_that_so

Eod100 wrote: »

Seems one of the only options left if zero covid strategy is not feasible is these rolling restrictions unfortunately. Hopefully it's not level 5 in January but some form of restrictions may be needed until a vaccine.

In theory we should go to Level 5 as a last resort not the first port of call when cases surge.

Boggles

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Well the prediction is also 100 cases in ICU next Saturday. Unless we have secret ICU capacity, that one should be transparent.

Link?

Goldrickssan

With trends already starting to point in the right direction (something I assume NPHET and the government did not think would happen this early from level 3) could we actually end up in a great position after 5.5 more weeks of this?

is_that_so

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Well the prediction is also 100 cases in ICU next Saturday. Unless we have secret ICU capacity, that one should be transparent.

I do think it will be interesting how they explain that. In March we would have been relieved, now it'd be nice to know why it doesn't tally.

Eod100

is_that_so wrote: »

In theory we should go to Level 5 as a last resort not the first port of call when cases surge.

Yeah that's why I don't think level 5 would be the first option sought if cases do rise in January. If anything it becomes easier to refuse if NPHET seek the last resort option too often. Government may need to being in lower restrictions quicker though rather than a wait and see approach.

Boggles

KrustyUCC wrote: »

So you think there's been 1000 - 1700 additional cases not detected and reported over the past few days?

We weren't finding all cases as was with a functioning tracing system.

70/80% according to Nolan a couple of weeks ago.

Do you think given what has happened to tracing in the past 3 weeks, that number has gone up or down?

boggerman1

Good to see George lee and Sam mcconkey getting called out in the sindo today for their constant fear mongering.

KrustyUCC

Ger Roe wrote: »

I think you might be misquoting him - he always says that his projections are based on 'if we do nothing'. If you introduce restrictions, then cases, hopefully, drop.

His projections are calculated at a specific time, taking account of the measures in force at that time and 'projecting' on that basis.

His projections were at a time 8 days into level three restrictions when level three couldn't possibly of had an effect yet

We had already done something

The cases at that point were from the time of level two

Funny Philip & Co had already decided levels 3 and 4 couldn't possibly work let's just go straight to 5

Based on his worse case scenario modelling

is_that_so

Eod100 wrote: »

Yeah that's why I don't think level 5 would be the first option sought if cases do rise in January. If anything it becomes easier to refuse if NPHET seek the last resort option too often. Government may need to being in lower restrictions quicker though rather than a wait and see approach.

Yeah, the economic hit gets worse and worse the more we do that. From Indo today.

A third nationwide lockdown would face significant resistance in Fine Gael, according to senior party figures.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has insisted another lockdown in the new year cannot be ruled out.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/third-national-lockdown-would-face-strong-resistance-from-fine-gael-ministers-39664961.html

Goldrickssan

boggerman1 wrote: »

Good to see George lee and Sam mcconkey getting called out in the sindo today for their constant fear mongering.

What was said?

GazzaL

I think at this point it's every man for himself. If you have a business that's been shut down by the NPHET failures, you can either sit on your hands and cry about it, or open up and do your best to continue trading safely.

Schools with multiple confirmed cases of COVID are still open as normal and children that spend the entire day in the same classroom as confirmed cases are not considered to be close contacts.

NPHET don't give a toss about their failed contact tracing system because they think they can just turn off the lights. **** them.

Happydays2020

Boggles wrote: »

Link?

https://assets.gov.ie/93272/2c5f1621-4233-47d8-adce-96e9b9b2ffc1.pdf

80 - 110 but they have referenced 100 in the media.

Goldrickssan

GazzaL wrote: »

I think at this point it's every man for himself. If you have a business that's been shut down by the NPHET failures, you can either sit on your hands and cry about it, or open up and do your best to continue trading safely.

Schools with multiple confirmed cases of COVID are still open as normal and children that spend the entire day in the same classroom as confirmed cases are not considered to be close contacts.

NPHET don't give a toss about their failed contact tracing system because they think they can just turn off the lights. **** them.

If you're going to get all worked up at least understand what you're worked up about.

NPHET don't control contract tracing the HSE does.

is_that_so

GazzaL wrote: »

I think at this point it's every man for himself. If you have a business that's been shut down by the NPHET failures, you can either sit on your hands and cry about it, or open up and do your best to continue trading safely.

Schools with multiple confirmed cases of COVID are still open as normal and children that spend the entire day in the same classroom as confirmed cases are not considered to be close contacts.

NPHET don't give a toss about their failed contact tracing system because they think they can just turn off the lights. **** them.

Contact tracing is not their job, it's the HSE and faults with it aside it'll be hard pushed to do so under current levels.

Goldrickssan

Goldrickssan wrote: »

What was said?

That they are fearmongers that do no good for anyone. That George Lee is just a NPHET amplifier and does not have am inquisitive bone in his body

majcos

Deleted User wrote: »

Covid-19 confirmed cases in half of Northern Ireland schools




These should be included in the case numbers on the Island of Ireland.




https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54656456

With 350,000 students in primaries and post primaries, those figures are also reassuring with regards to relative safety in schools. The incidence rates in the North would lead you to expect much more cases in schools since they reopened but it is also lower than that in the community.

Goldrickssan

Deleted User wrote: »

That they are fearmongers that do no good for anyone. That George Lee is just a NPHET amplifier and does not have am inquisitive bone in his body

George Lee is the virus! Ill march for that

Happydays2020

Ger Roe wrote: »

I think you might be misquoting him - he always says that his projections are based on 'if we do nothing'. If you introduce restrictions, then cases, hopefully, drop.

His projections are calculated at a specific time, taking account of the measures in force at that time and 'projecting' on that basis.

They have also said repeatedly since March that it takes two weeks to see results. That new hospitalisations and ICU cases and deaths are already pre-ordained for the next two weeks.

prunudo

Goldrickssan wrote: »

If you're going to get all worked up at least understand what you're worked up about.

NPHET don't control contract tracing the HSE does.

Nphet are quick enough to call out the public or aportion blame to other organisations when they contribute to rising cases. That don't seem too quick to criticise their fellow Hse board members.

Eod100

is_that_so wrote: »

Yeah, the economic hit gets worse and worse the more we do that. From Indo today.




https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/third-national-lockdown-would-face-strong-resistance-from-fine-gael-ministers-39664961.html

Yeah I'd seen that. Think Martin had said restrictions, not sure he ever said lockdown and NPHET never do. Seems to be more FG trying to assert authority after Varadkar came out so strongly and publicly against level 5 restrictions.

Happydays2020

is_that_so wrote: »

Contact tracing is not their job, it's the HSE and faults with it aside it'll be hard pushed to do so under current levels.

Except that a good chunk of the membership of NPHET are from the HSE. Policy and operational should be separated to enable good decision making.

speckle

Well it looks like I was right that I asked the question a couple of days ago ..was the viva sanitiser sent to other healthcare facilities and not just schools. If this dodgy product was sent to for example nursing homes.. the company should be sued. And the question remains has it been used in the past in hospitals where outbreaks if other nasty infections have appeared .

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-over-a-million-units-of-recalled-hand-sanitiser-sent-to-health-facilities-1.4390519?mode=amp

Boggles

Happydays2020 wrote: »

https://assets.gov.ie/93272/2c5f1621-4233-47d8-adce-96e9b9b2ffc1.pdf

80 - 110 but they have referenced 100 in the media.

So not a 100?

Level 4 at the border counties hadn't came in at that time.

AFAIK it was revised down to between 60-84.

It would appear a relative percentage of people are not been afforded the benefit of ICU.

Even so we could easily be looking at 50 in ICU and close enough to 400 in hospital in the next 7 odd days. Give there has been 15,000 confirmed infections in the past fortnight with it growing in the vulnerable groups.

So it's hardly an absolute mental prediction.

Ger Roe

Deleted User wrote: »

That they are fearmongers that do no good for anyone. That George Lee is just a NPHET amplifier and does not have am inquisitive bone in his body

I don't know about that .... he dug pretty deep and ruffled a lot of feathers when he and Charlie Bird uncovered major tax and overcharging scandals in National Irish Bank, he also saw the financial crash coming in 2008 and called out the financial regulator over his official report that we were all going to be fine.

Beanybabog

I just got a text for my daughters Covid test... in three hours. No text so far for me or my son. I’ve Been reading lots giving out about people not turning up for their second test... maybe more notice would be helpful! I’m fine but I imagine some people have no transport

mloc123

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That they are fearmongers that do no good for anyone. That George Lee is just a NPHET amplifier and does not have am inquisitive bone in his body

Remember when George went into politics... For about 6 months

Happydays2020

Boggles wrote: »

So not a 100?

Level 4 at the border counties hadn't came in at that time.

AFAIK it was revised down to between 60-84.

It would appear a relative percentage of people are not been afforded the benefit of ICU.

Even so we could easily be looking at 50 in ICU and close enough to 400 in hospital in the next 7 odd days. Give there has been 15,000 confirmed infections in the past fortnight with it growing in the vulnerable groups.

So it's hardly an absolute mental prediction.

That is the letter to the Government. This is the Formal advice to go to Level 5 not something on then back of an envelope. They have said 80 to 110, and publicly made reference to the 100 figure.

You are tying yourself in knots trying to defend them.

I am fine with level 5 as I do think the trajectory was unsustainable and can see the benefits of a circuit breaker now rather than going to level 5 in later November or a crazy level of infections over Christmas.

Goldrickssan

RedC poll shows 66% in favour of level 5. Higher than i thought it would be.

bb1234567

Jimson wrote: »

The younger you are the more asymptomatic the symptoms are, think about it.

Why is it rampant in nursing homes? Because there showing symptoms and getting tested.

How many of these 18-24 would have siblings in schools? A lot of this age group in college as well.

Also we were at 50 cases a day with house parties rampant across the country. Why is it only when the schools went back its up to 1300

That's not true, there have been many asymptomatic cases even in nursing homes. Data from Diamond Princess showed that a young person was in fact more likely to show symptoms than the over 65 cohort. Obviously their symptoms were milder than the older group who showed symptomcs, but young age does not make one more likely to be asymptomatic, just more likely to have mild symptoms.

mloc123

Boggles wrote: »

It would appear a relative percentage of people are not been afforded the benefit of ICU.

The likely scenario is, they have DNRs

bb1234567

bb1234567 wrote: »

That's not true, there have been many asymptomatic cases even in nursing homes. Data from Diamond Princess showed that a young person was in fact less likely to show symptoms than the over 65 cohort. Obviously their symptoms were milder than the older group who showed symptomcs, but young age does not make one more likely to be asymptomatic, just more likely to have mild symptoms.

they can still spread it like everyone else, mild symptoms or not.

Happydays2020

mloc123 wrote: »

The likely scenario is, they have DNRs

And they and their families have decided this for good reasons.

Psychiatric Patrick

The whole thing has been a bit much for me and I cannot understand these rules.

If 25 people can gather for wedding, why not 40? Or 50?

And why is there restrictions on home visits?

I’m not a “denier” or anything like that I just cannot understand the logic of it.

Six family members (from two households) are going to my parents house today. One works in a hospital and they are travelling more than 5km.

Is that violating the restrictions?

niallo27

Goldrickssan wrote: »

If you're going to get all worked up at least understand what you're worked up about.

NPHET don't control contract tracing the HSE does.

Replace nphet with hse in what the poster said and what is your opinion, I think its a valid one, businesses are being asked to close because of the failures of others. Once they can accept for the good of people, twice is hard to take but if they are asked a third time I don't blame for staying open.

mloc123

Happydays2020 wrote: »

And they and their families have decided this for good reasons.

Yup. My grandfather, grand aunt and uncle all had DNRs while in nursing homes. Luckily (now) they all died before Covid hit hard, the last being in March.

Even people without a DNR, doctors will look at anyone over 70 and weigh up what quality of life if any they would have after a month in an induced coma on a ventilator. The months or years of rehab afterwards etc..

Jim_Hodge

speckle wrote: »

....If this dodgy product was sent to for example nursing homes.. the company should be sued. And the question remains has it been used in the past in hospitals where outbreaks if other nasty infections have appeared...

You do realise that it performed as a sanitiser? It was the side affects that were the issue.

mloc123

Psychiatric Patrick wrote: »

The whole thing has been a bit much for me and I cannot understand these rules.

If 25 people can gather for wedding, why not 40? Or 50?

And why is there restrictions on home visits?

I’m not a “denier” or anything like that I just cannot understand the logic of it.

Six family members (from two households) are going to my parents house today. One works in a hospital and they are travelling more than 5km.

Is that violating the restrictions?

Of course it is violating restrictions. FFS... People will use any excuse to ignore the recommendations... Oh, I didn't understand.

Ger Roe

Ger Roe wrote: »

I don't know about that .... he dug pretty deep and ruffled a lot of feathers when he and Charlie Bird uncovered major tax and overcharging scandals in National Irish Bank, he also saw the financial crash coming in 2008 and called out the financial regulator over his official report that we were all going to be fine.

He did. And I don’t know where that went. Robert Peston in the UK was the same. A once challenging and inquisitive journalist now just a mouthpiece

Jim_Hodge

Psychiatric Patrick wrote: »

Six family members (from two households) are going to my parents house today. One works in a hospital and they are travelling more than 5km.

Is that violating the restrictions?

Of course it is. Would you tell them and your parents to get a grip?!