Green Party disintegration / split

Brussels Sprout

hotmail.com wrote: »

It seems to me that newer members of the party are driven more by social justice issues rather than Green issues.

The Green Party is and always was about Green/environment issues and everything else is second (or not even bothered with).

Newer members are better off joining Social Democrats, Labour or even FG.

Ah c'mere.

Don't let the fact that they decided to get on the right side of history with those referenda fool you.

KevRossi

awec wrote: »

Greens wouldn't endorse her as they don't believe she has a chance of winning.

Chu seems pretty eager to get into the senate. I think she has tried to be nominated before. I believe she has also approached some independents looking for an endorsement since she's technically not a green candidate.

The move smacks of absolute careerism to be honest and is just another example of the GP being full of people who don't really suit being in a party. What is the point in being in the Greens if you're happy to ditch it and go solo to run for a cosier position?

Like if she managed to get elected as an independent senator is she going to vote against any government bills, and therefore against her own party?

Eamon Ryan needs to start wielding the stick to those in his party who are not toeing the line.

Hazel tried to run alongside Eamon Ryan in Dublin Bay South last year. He vetoed that as he feared it would split the vote and run the risk of none of them getting elected. She was very unhappy about that and has decided to forage her own path where and when she sees fit.

She has little or no hope of getting elected in DBS as an Independent. There are a fair few heavyweights in there at the moment and there aren't too many places she can go apart from that. The constituency next door has her husband to be in it, other seats south of the river have established GP TD's, many who are friendly with her and north of the river is Neasa Hourigan. Anywhere else is well outside her hunting ground.

So it looks like the Senate for a while. I doubt she'll get elected this time out, but it's all about building a profile over a few years and she'll no doubt have a proper stab at the Seanad next time out. Whether she has burned her bridges with the party is another question.

She hasn't been in the GP very many years, she had an accelerated path to the top and you only go that far that quick by stepping on other peoples toes. She's a bit too fond of shooting off on Twitter before informing herself of the facts; it gets a lot of Likes and Retweets, but it can have consequences as well.

There's something about her that isn't 100% GP, but it will be interesting to see if she continues to go places or to see if her star crashes and burns. She is keeping her name in the papers and that's one important step in politics.

hotmail.com

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Ah c'mere.

Don't let the fact that they decided to get on the right side of history with those referenda fool you.

FG and the Greens share similar economic policies.

Yakov P. Golyadkin

KevRossi wrote: »

Hazel tried to run alongside Eamon Ryan in Dublin Bay South last year. He vetoed that as he feared it would split the vote and run the risk of none of them getting elected. She was very unhappy about that and has decided to forage her own path where and when she sees fit.

She has little or no hope of getting elected in DBS as an Independent. There are a fair few heavyweights in there at the moment and there aren't too many places she can go apart from that. The constituency next door has her husband to be in it, other seats south of the river have established GP TD's, many who are friendly with her and north of the river is Neasa Hourigan. Anywhere else is well outside her hunting ground.

Dun Laoghaire? Not too far from her current base, Ossian Smyth is the current Green TD, he was previously a councillor but I'm not sure he's well known enough to be considered established. As far as I recall he voted for ER in the leadership vote so she may not be too concerned with challenging him. Then there's the electorate; I'm sure she'd do well with a significant cohort of voters - She would presumably pick up some current Green voters and likely steal some of RBBs vote too.

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/paulmurphy_TD/status/1374773122616995844

KevRossi

Yakov P. Golyadkin wrote: »

Dun Laoghaire? Not too far from her current base, Ossian Smyth is the current Green TD, he was previously a councillor but I'm not sure he's well known enough to be considered established. As far as I recall he voted for ER in the leadership vote so she may not be too concerned with challenging him. Then there's the electorate; I'm sure she'd do well with a significant cohort of voters - She would presumably pick up some current Green voters and likely steal some of RBBs vote too.

There's no constituency in Dublin that will hold 2 GP seats, at least not in the next election. The GP will not let 2 candidates run anywhere for that reason. At best they might run a 2nd to hoover up votes in one corner of a constituency to increase transfers.

Also all constituencies in Dublin have either a TD or a candidate (usually a councillor) who has been there for a long time slowly building up a base after the disaster of the locals in 2009. They won't be too keen to let her in as she's a relative newcomer once all the hard graft has been done.

She would have to go elsewhere and put a few years in to get elected, not sure if she wants to do that. No time like the present as the Locals are in 2024, so she has 3 years to canvass and get a base built. Or she sits it out and waits for Eamon Ryan to go; he'll be 58 this year.

Or there's another option that may happen; I could possibly see her partner/husband stepping aside to let her run in the next GE if she doesn't get a shot herself in a safe seat. He spent over a decade building up a local profile as a councillor and then as a TD. Not sure if he'll do it or not.

hotmail.com

KevRossi wrote: »

There's no constituency in Dublin that will hold 2 GP seats, at least not in the next election. The GP will not let 2 candidates run anywhere for that reason. At best they might run a 2nd to hoover up votes in one corner of a constituency to increase transfers.

Also all constituencies in Dublin have either a TD or a candidate (usually a councillor) who has been there for a long time slowly building up a base after the disaster of the locals in 2009. They won't be too keen to let her in as she's a relative newcomer once all the hard graft has been done.

She would have to go elsewhere and put a few years in to get elected, not sure if she wants to do that. No time like the present as the Locals are in 2024, so she has 3 years to canvass and get a base built. Or she sits it out and waits for Eamon Ryan to go; he'll be 58 this year.

Or there's another option that may happen; I could possibly see her partner/husband stepping aside to let her run in the next GE if she doesn't get a shot herself in a safe seat. He spent over a decade building up a local profile as a councillor and then as a TD. Not sure if he'll do it or not.

Hazel Chu is probably more suited to the Seanad. A Mary Robinson/Ivana Bacik type figure - struggles to get elected to the Dail but suits the Seanad grand. (No one cares about the Seanad).

The Greens must be furious with her and confirms a sell out reputation the party has gained since they entered government.

L1011

This comedy just gets funnier

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/hazel-chu-didnt-seek-permission-for-st-stephens-green-event-40236983.html

Chances of anything coming from this are nil, of course, but it just makes everyone involved look less competent. 9 councillors have come out backing her which would suggest those nine could be willing to leave in a split.

Augme

awec wrote: »

It must be nearly time for Ryan to start actually wielding the stick?

He can't. Sure he only won the leadership contest by 50 votes. The reality is a large portion of his party don't have a huge amount of faith in him, despite what he has achieved.

If he wields the stick he collapses the government and his Ministerial position.

Hard not to see how his days are numbered.

Augme

KevRossi wrote: »

Hazel tried to run alongside Eamon Ryan in Dublin Bay South last year. He vetoed that as he feared it would split the vote and run the risk of none of them getting elected. She was very unhappy about that and has decided to forage her own path where and when she sees fit.

She has little or no hope of getting elected in DBS as an Independent. There are a fair few heavyweights in there at the moment and there aren't too many places she can go apart from that. The constituency next door has her husband to be in it, other seats south of the river have established GP TD's, many who are friendly with her and north of the river is Neasa Hourigan. Anywhere else is well outside her hunting ground.

So it looks like the Senate for a while. I doubt she'll get elected this time out, but it's all about building a profile over a few years and she'll no doubt have a proper stab at the Seanad next time out. Whether she has burned her bridges with the party is another question.

She hasn't been in the GP very many years, she had an accelerated path to the top and you only go that far that quick by stepping on other peoples toes. She's a bit too fond of shooting off on Twitter before informing herself of the facts; it gets a lot of Likes and Retweets, but it can have consequences as well.

There's something about her that isn't 100% GP, but it will be interesting to see if she continues to go places or to see if her star crashes and burns. She is keeping her name in the papers and that's one important step in politics.

If she ran as a SD candidate in DBS she would have a very strong foundation and I could see her winning a seat at some stage. Their current candidate is a nobody at the moment.

Sam Russell

Augme wrote: »

He can't. Sure he only won the leadership contest by 50 votes. The reality is a large portion of his party don't have a huge amount of faith in him, despite what he has achieved.

If he wields the stick he collapses the government and his Ministerial position.

Hard not to see how his days are numbered.

As a Green Minister for transport, why is he not out shouting about Metrolink, and how he will have a RO by the week after next, tenders out by next month, and TBMs in the ground by this time next year (I exaggerate) but radio silence on the biggest Green transport project in the states history - come on, what is his game?

He spends his time talking up failed railway lines, dissing the M20, and quoting nonsense figures. Is not that the story he had about the Sandyford Green line?

He is not as Green as he is cabbage looking.

Blut2

Another good article here today: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/dontmention-electriccars-and-read-karl-marx-ex-green-party-membersplan-new-party-40236979.html

Some very amusing highlights:

ARG believes it should “be slightly obnoxious/sassy at most times and de-emphasise politeness”. The document claims the Social Democrats will be “put out” by the launch of ARG and that the new party should be “a little bit edgier”. Plenary minutes from a meeting on December 6 show members being told “everyone go read Marx”.

A draft strategic plan says the party will take an “intersectional, anti-imperialist and anti-colonialist approach to all policy matters

These people are completely stuck in their Twitter bubble. Everything about them seems to be designed to win 'woke' college socialist party votes. Who might be very loud and prominent on the internet, but don't exist in the real world as voters in any significant number. The 'normal' Green party will much better off if they lose their crazier members to this splinter party.

L1011

Sam Russell wrote: »

As a Green Minister for transport, why is he not out shouting about Metrolink, and how he will have a RO by the week after next, tenders out by next month, and TBMs in the ground by this time next year (I exaggerate) but radio silence on the biggest Green transport project in the states history - come on, what is his game?

He spends his time talking up failed railway lines, dissing the M20, and quoting nonsense figures. Is not that the story he had about the Sandyford Green line?

He is not as Green as he is cabbage looking.

When it came to Metrolink, he was a useful idiot for wealthy south Dublin voters to stop the road they drive their SUVs down to Mortons etc getting closed off. All to push an implausible alternate that could not happen as the core would not have the capacity.

Larbre34

As long as the far left remains a splintered mess, the better for the Country.

Nylon sweaters, bed wetters.

Yakov P. Golyadkin

KevRossi wrote: »

There's no constituency in Dublin that will hold 2 GP seats, at least not in the next election. The GP will not let 2 candidates run anywhere for that reason. At best they might run a 2nd to hoover up votes in one corner of a constituency to increase transfers.

Also all constituencies in Dublin have either a TD or a candidate (usually a councillor) who has been there for a long time slowly building up a base after the disaster of the locals in 2009. They won't be too keen to let her in as she's a relative newcomer once all the hard graft has been done.

She would have to go elsewhere and put a few years in to get elected, not sure if she wants to do that. No time like the present as the Locals are in 2024, so she has 3 years to canvass and get a base built. Or she sits it out and waits for Eamon Ryan to go; he'll be 58 this year.

Or there's another option that may happen; I could possibly see her partner/husband stepping aside to let her run in the next GE if she doesn't get a shot herself in a safe seat. He spent over a decade building up a local profile as a councillor and then as a TD. Not sure if he'll do it or not.

All true, however, I was basing my thoughts on her running as an independent rather than for the GP.

awec

Yakov P. Golyadkin wrote: »

All true, however, I was basing my thoughts on her running as an independent rather than for the GP.

I'd say she has no chance of ever being elected a TD as an independent.

L1011

awec wrote: »

I'd say she has no chance of ever being elected a TD as an independent.

She would need the banner of a centre-left party to have any chance, and there's only two other options after the Greens.

Brussels Sprout

These are the 12 Green Party TDs:

1. Neasa Hourigan - Dublin Central
2. Patrick Costello - Dublin South-Central
3. Joe O'Brien - Dublin Fingal
4. Marc Ó Cathasaigh - Waterford
5. Brian Leddin - Limerick City
6. Steven Matthews - Wicklow
7. Francis Noel Duffy - Dublin South-West
8. Malcolm Noonan - Carlow–Kilkenny
9. Roderic O'Gorman - Dublin West
10. Catherine Martin - Dublin Rathdown
11. Ossian Smyth - Dún Laoghaire
12. Eamon Ryan - Dublin Bay South

How many, if any of them could leave to join the new Fluffy Headed Green party (or whatever they are called)?

N.B. The government coalition currently has a 4 seat majority


I could see Hourigan and Costello jumping ship. O'Brien, Martin & Duffy would be potential candidates if they weren't ministers / related to ministers.

Sam Russell

L1011 wrote: »

She would need the banner of a centre-left party to have any chance, and there's only two other options after the Greens.

Well, she topped the poll in the Pembroke ward by quite some margin. She runs to get the woman vote, and the minority vote although she was born in Ireland, and if that was not enough, she is a barrister as well.

I hope she gets elected to the Senate.

L1011

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, she topped the poll in the Pembroke ward by quite some margin. She runs to get the woman vote, and the minority vote although she was born in Ireland, and if that was not enough, she is a barrister as well.

I hope she gets elected to the Senate.

A significant % of that vote was a Green vote (at that time anyway).

Blut2

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I could see Hourigan and Costello jumping ship. O'Brien, Martin & Duffy would be potential candidates if they weren't ministers / related to ministers.

Hourigan and Costello will be the only two I'd say. Martin realistically should as well, but shes probably too close to power/leadership to give that up.

Even if more did jump though and the government went down to 78/79 TDs it'd manage - the votes of the two Healy-Raes and Michael Lowry are all reliably/easily bought for an FG&FF gov.

tHE vAGGABOND

Thinking...

I would think Neasa Hourigan has a huge fight to regain her seat next election. I can see Mary Lou bringing a mate with her next time. Pascal will keep his seat. So Green and SD fight out, and Gary Gannon is doing a good job. I bet on him to mop uploads of transfers.

So Greens have to be wondering about another wipeout come next election. Not many of the seats above are terribly safe - let alone second seats..

Blut2

^ their Dublin South-West, Dublin South-Central, Dublin West, Limerick, Carlow and Waterford TDs will all likely lose their seats if theres another SF surge in the next election, and SF run enough candidates. Unless the Greens go massively upwards in support anyway, but that seems unlikely.

Dun Laoghaire, Dublin Bay South, Dublin Rathdown and then to a lesser extent Dublin Fingal and Wicklow will all be pretty safe though I'd say. Dublin Central could go either way.

So probably not a total wipeout, but likely back down to 5-6 seats.

Larbre34

Yeah its clear enough Neasa Hourigan does what she wants, when she wants, not too bothered with Party policy, programmes for Government etc. How could a constituent trust her in that situation.

If she wants to act like an independent or an ARG wannabe, then thats how she should identify.

blanch152

Blut2 wrote: »

^ their Dublin South-West, Dublin South-Central, Dublin West, Limerick, Carlow and Waterford TDs will all likely lose their seats if theres another SF surge in the next election, and SF run enough candidates. Unless the Greens go massively upwards in support anyway, but that seems unlikely.

Dun Laoghaire, Dublin Bay South, Dublin Rathdown and then to a lesser extent Dublin Fingal and Wicklow will all be pretty safe though I'd say. Dublin Central could go either way.

So probably not a total wipeout, but likely back down to 5-6 seats.

Dublin West is unlikely to change for quite a while. The fortunes of the four parties with seats will go up and down, but that will only change the order in which they are elected. Donnelly doesn't have enough support for a second seat, running someone with him could risk splitting the vote and letting Coppinger back in.

breezy1985

blanch152 wrote: »

Dublin West is unlikely to change for quite a while. The fortunes of the four parties with seats will go up and down, but that will only change the order in which they are elected. Donnelly doesn't have enough support for a second seat, running someone with him could risk splitting the vote and letting Coppinger back in.

Given Donnelly's track record he will probably be with a different party by then anyway

Brussels Sprout

breezy1985 wrote: »

Given Donnelly's track record he will probably be with a different party by then anyway

different Donnelly

Sam Russell

blanch152 wrote: »

Dublin West is unlikely to change for quite a while.

Roderick O'Gorman has been going there for a long time and has built up a reasonable following, steadily increasing his vote. Currently a full Minister, he is building a bigger profile. I would think he will likely stay, unless there is a complete meltdown.

breezy1985

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

different Donnelly

A ya I forgot the chameleon is Wicklow not Dublin

Blut2

blanch152 wrote: »

Dublin West is unlikely to change for quite a while. The fortunes of the four parties with seats will go up and down, but that will only change the order in which they are elected. Donnelly doesn't have enough support for a second seat, running someone with him could risk splitting the vote and letting Coppinger back in.

Paul Donnelly got 28.6% of first preferences in the last election. He was at almost 150% of the quota on the first count alone... With any sort of increase in support for SF in the next election, and with a running mate bringing in some of their own support base, SF will be very likely to get a second seat in Dublin West at the Green's expense.

But even if SF don't run a second candidate (which is very unlikely) for some reason, even just the Green vote going down by 10% would see Ruth Coppinger taking that 4th seat.

That Dublin West Green seat isn't safe at all.