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Green Party disintegration / split

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    Paul Donnelly will hold his seat. Coppinger is a losing docket. The Greens are on self destruct and hopefully will be wiped out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,017 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Edgware wrote: »
    Paul Donnelly will hold his seat. Coppinger is a losing docket. The Greens are on self destruct and hopefully will be wiped out.

    A green party is needed. I haven't ever voted for them but the pressure they put on bigger parties is good. I'm a big fan of recycling, energy saving lightbulbs, better housing insulation and energy etc. which are all things I see as win win. It's the Dublin or closer to home Raheen/Dooradoyle attitude of I'm all right Jack let's stop building much needed roads and bypasses crap that goes too far


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,858 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    If there is a Sinn Fein wave next time, they'll want to win 2 seats in Dublin West. 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF.

    Greens will be squeezed out.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,098 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Greens and SocDems will be losing seats all over if SF manage to handle transfers properly, as will some of the hard left and left/centrist/not obviously FFG bloodline independents. RBB is safe, nobody else is guaranteed.

    Your biggest risk as a TD is your running mate, and there could be an occasional case of a running mate de-seating the sitting TD (ala Magidan to Shatter 2016) or horrendously splitting the vote and not getting in (this is not common, I'm not sure of a situation where you could be sure someone would have got in without the split - maybe some cases where #1 got in and #2/#3 split and kept each other out).

    When you have no seat and run a sweeper to try ensure the lead gets in, the sweeper can win as happened to Labour in Waterford in 2011 - Conway as the rural Waterford sweeper got in because there is still to this day a Labour base in rural Waterford (Dungarvan and surrounds) and Ryan as the city candidate who 'should' have won, didn't.

    However, as SF have a seat in most constituencies this is also unlikely to happen


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,182 ✭✭✭bobbysands81


    If there is a Sinn Fein wave next time, they'll want to win 2 seats in Dublin West. 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF.

    Greens will be squeezed out.

    There doesn’t need to be a Sinn Féin wave, they just need to hold their vote in this constituency to get two seats... failing to get their vote out is the only reason they won’t get two seats.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,540 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    L1011 wrote: »
    Greens and SocDems will be losing seats all over if SF manage to handle transfers properly, as will some of the hard left and left/centrist/not obviously FFG bloodline independents. RBB is safe, nobody else is guaranteed.

    Your biggest risk as a TD is your running mate, and there could be an occasional case of a running mate de-seating the sitting TD (ala Magidan to Shatter 2016) or horrendously splitting the vote and not getting in (this is not common, I'm not sure of a situation where you could be sure someone would have got in without the split - maybe some cases where #1 got in and #2/#3 split and kept each other out).

    When you have no seat and run a sweeper to try ensure the lead gets in, the sweeper can win as happened to Labour in Waterford in 2011 - Conway as the rural Waterford sweeper got in because there is still to this day a Labour base in rural Waterford (Dungarvan and surrounds) and Ryan as the city candidate who 'should' have won, didn't.

    However, as SF have a seat in most constituencies this is also unlikely to happen

    Greens yes (but also to FG, remember the Greens got thr disaffected FG vote last time) but Soc Dems I'm not so sure. They've many young and competent candidates with a high profile. All bar one of their TDs (Jennifer Whitmore) has a very high profile. The only place where they may lose out would be Kildare North (if Murphy decides to retire). I would say Cairns in Cork South West will hold on, FG will get a seat there but it will be at FF's expense, Whitmore not sure but probably alright, don't see Gary Gannon losing (the extra SF here will wipe out Hourigan), Shorthall will have no trouble getting re-elected assuming she runs again. O'Callaghan could be vulnerable alright I suppose, if there's a SF surge there definitely won't be room in Dublin Bay North for both a Soc Dem and a Labour TD. Maybe he will stay on ahead of Ó Riordáin.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,098 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Greens yes (but also to FG, remember the Greens got thr disaffected FG vote last time) but Soc Dems I'm not so sure. They've many young and competent candidates with a high profile. All bar one of their TDs (Jennifer Whitmore) has a very high profile. The only place where they may lose out would be Kildare North (if Murphy decides to retire). I would say Cairns in Cork South West will hold on, FG will get a seat there but it will be at FF's expense, Whitmore not sure but probably alright, don't see Gary Gannon losing (the extra SF here will wipe out Hourigan), Shorthall will have no trouble getting re-elected assuming she runs again. O'Callaghan could be vulnerable alright I suppose, if there's a SF surge there definitely won't be room in Dublin Bay North for both a Soc Dem and a Labour TD. Maybe he will stay on ahead of Ó Riordáin.

    Veering hugely off-topic here:

    I would not be confident betting on there being more than one SD TD, namely Shortall - assuming she doesn't retire. I cannot see there being more than 3, although I'd not be surprised by 2.

    Murphy's likely replacement - Killeen - is making a lot of efforts beyond her council MD. She will not hold the seat.

    Cairns is gone if FF and FG sort out transfers. She got in on a fluke, nothing more.

    Whitmore got in on a huge amount of ABFF/G transfers that could easily end up elsewhere if there is a second SF. She may survive.

    If there's a squeeze on DBN I suspect O'Riordain takes it. Left transfers got kept O'Callaghan in there. His main escape from the challenge of the time (Green) was PBP transfers that likely mostly came from SF to begin with.

    Gannon has probably the best chance other than Shortall, but Hourigan may not be a Green/Govt TD by then and won't get as much flack. If Burke doesn't run there's a decent floating but almost definitely not Green of any kind vote and transfer base there though. He may survive.

    I don't see any other candidate getting in. Shortall, possibly Whitemore, possibly Gannon and I'd be amazed by any of the others.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,370 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    L1011 wrote: »
    Cairns is gone if FF and FG sort out transfers. She got in on a fluke, nothing more.

    I respectfully disagree with this analysis. Cairns came from a long way back on the first count (especially vs the combined FF vote) but her win was neither a fluke nor a transfer blunder by FF/FG.

    FF's 2 candidates got just under a quota combined and the second candidate's elimination led to O'Sullivan's election with nothing left to transfer anywhere else.

    FG's 2 candidates got 75% of a Quota between them and didn't get too many transfers from anyone else apart from an independent where 25% of their transfers went to FG.

    The real problem for both of them was the presence of Michael Collins who was drawing from the same general centre/right pool of the electorate. He took just over a quota himself on the first round to get elected.

    In contrast there was an open channel on the left for 1 candidate. There has always been potential for a left-wing candidate in West Cork given some of the communities down there. The combined vote of the Soc Dems, Greens, Sinn Fein and PBP was just over a quota. Those candidates transferred to each other efficiently leading to Cairns election.

    There was no vote management strategy that FF & FG could have implemented that would have gotten them Cairn's seat given the first preference numbers that day.

    Added to that, she has made the most of the opportunity and has been one of the most impressive debutants in this Dail. Impressive opposition TDs rarely lose their seats. She will get elected in a far more comfortable manner come the next election barring an unlikely scandal.


    Back on Topic: The new party is meant to be launching in 2 days time. It will be interesting to see who is fronting it. I suspect Lorna Bogue will definitely be part of it, perhaps McHugh as well. The real question will be if they have managed to nab a Green TD.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,540 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    I agree with this. Michael Collins will walk it as long as he wants to run. With FF on 11% of the polls, FG will easily get their seat back (it was truly extraordinary they didn't manage it in the home of Michael Collins of 1920's fame) even if they run Lombard (who is too close to Cork to really have a sizeable base), the West Cork candidate will sweep up. FG on 30 isn't really high enough to get two seats (which they have gotten before in CSW) especially with two other high profile TDs (Cairns and Collins).

    I don't see Cairns losing her seat unless the SDs have a meltdown between now and the next election (which I very much doubt will happen as Murphy and Shorthall know how to win elections).


  • Administrators Posts: 53,127 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I respectfully disagree with this analysis. Cairns came from a long way back on the first count (especially vs the combined FF vote) but her win was neither a fluke nor a transfer blunder by FF/FG.

    FF's 2 candidates got just under a quota combined and the second candidate's elimination led to O'Sullivan's election with nothing left to transfer anywhere else.

    FG's 2 candidates got 75% of a Quota between them and didn't get too many transfers from anyone else apart from an independent where 25% of their transfers went to FG.

    The real problem for both of them was the presence of Michael Collins who was drawing from the same general centre/right pool of the electorate. He took just over a quota himself on the first round to get elected.

    In contrast there was an open channel on the left for 1 candidate. There has always been potential for a left-wing candidate in West Cork given some of the communities down there. The combined vote of the Soc Dems, Greens, Sinn Fein and PBP was just over a quota. Those candidates transferred to each other efficiently leading to Cairns election.

    There was no vote management strategy that FF & FG could have implemented that would have gotten them Cairn's seat given the first preference numbers that day.

    Added to that, she has made the most of the opportunity and has been one of the most impressive debutants in this Dail. Impressive opposition TDs rarely lose their seats. She will get elected in a far more comfortable manner come the next election barring an unlikely scandal.


    Back on Topic: The new party is meant to be launching in 2 days time. It will be interesting to see who is fronting it. I suspect Lorna Bogue will definitely be part of it, perhaps McHugh as well. The real question will be if they have managed to nab a Green TD.

    I would be very surprised if they do. A sitting TD would have far too much to lose.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,863 ✭✭✭Blut2


    awec wrote: »
    I would be very surprised if they do. A sitting TD would have far too much to lose.


    If Hazel Chu is part of it then her husband Patrick Costello would have decent odds I'd presume. Neasa Hourigan too given her very clear dislike of being in government/the current Green party, albeit with lower odds in her case.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭joebloggs32




    Back on Topic: The new party is meant to be launching in 2 days time. It will be interesting to see who is fronting it. I suspect Lorna Bogue will definitely be part of it, perhaps McHugh as well. The real question will be if they have managed to nab a Green TD.

    Please please please please please let the launch in 2 days time......April 1st


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,370 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Please please please please please let the launch in 2 days time......April 1st

    I'm afraid it won't be. For some reason I had it in my head that the article said that it was launching on April 1st but I went back and looked at it again and they actually specify Feb 1st as the launch date.....not sure what's going on there since that was 8 weeks ago


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Eamon Ryan delivered their best ever result last year and brought the party back from the dead, got the highest approval from the membership of his party out of all three parties in Government for going into Government, and look at what his 'reward' has been from a certain branch of his own party.

    Well I suppose as the Greens themselves would say, they like to do things differently. It's like UK Labour, they'd rather be out of power if it means holding onto their principles rather than being in there and trying to implement the things they believe are worth fighting for. The mind truly boggles.

    I don't think Ryan is perfect, but never understood why people were so opposed to them going into power with FF/FG.

    The alternative was FF/FG and right wing Indy's ,,,,at least in power you can try to achieve some of your goals because the alternative was moaning on twitter while noted left wingers such as Lowry and Healy Raes call the shots.

    I don't think their is no any harm in a new Left Wing party, but initial reports make it sound like a student protest party who are going to chase retweets and little more.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,370 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    More rancour
    The Lord Mayor of Dublin Hazel Chu has said that requests for her to step aside as Green Party chairwoman should be handled by the party’s executive committee, not its group of TDs and Senators.

    Her remarks come ahead of a meeting of the parliamentary party on Wednesday evening where three Senators have tabled a motion calling for Ms Chu to stand aside from her chairwoman role during her bid for a Seanad seat.

    link


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,098 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Motion asking Chu to step aside passed 11-5 at the parliamentary party.

    Be interesting to guess the 5. Costello clearly, Hourigan, Martin x2 and Duffy perhaps?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,370 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    L1011 wrote: »
    Be interesting to guess the 5. Costello clearly, Hourigan, Martin x2 and Duffy perhaps?

    Either that group or 4 of them + O'Brien


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,686 ✭✭✭tHE vAGGABOND


    Interesting chat with Mrs Vagga last night [We are in Dublin Central] - that she would vote for Hourigan as an independent or as part of another party [as Mrs Vagga agree's with a lot of the things Hourigan has taken a stand on, and happy Hourigan is a principled person]...but Mrs Vagga is not voting Green party again [has voted green last 3 or 4 elections]. I think that kinda opinion is not just hers alone.

    ie: Hourigan runs as an independent and splits the vote and Gary Gannon and Sinn Fein candidate #2 do a little dance


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,098 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Seanad count due quite soon

    On the other panel, there was no obvious breach of party discipline - Govt candidate over the line on the first count with 118 of the 208 possible votes. Six people didn't vote!


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,098 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Assuming the Oireachtas graphics are correct, Chu got 10 votes. Stone dead last.

    The Labour candidate got 26...

    Really shows the lack of a point of that ridiculous charade that could have brought down the Government.


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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Is this the beginning of the end of her political career? Will she slip away to be the mouth piece in some well paid NGO position at the end of the current stint as LM or Councillor?

    Surely she has burned her bridges with the Greens?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,370 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Well that was inevitable. What a colossally, stupid and pointless vanity project. What was the point?

    She was using the excuse that she wanted to inspire women of colour. That made no sense to me. She had already gotten the highest vote in the country in the 2019 local elections, become the chair of her party and became Lord Mayor of the capital city. I don't think a doomed campaign for the Seanad was going to win over people that were still on the fence. In the meantime, she completely burned her bridges with a lot of people in her own party and probably annoyed a lot of potential future voters.

    She should get out of politics because clearly her judgement is terrible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,038 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Well that was inevitable. What a colossally, stupid and pointless vanity project. What was the point?

    She was using the excuse that she wanted to inspire women of colour. That made no sense to me. She had already gotten the highest vote in the country in the 2019 local elections, become the chair of her party and became Lord Mayor of the capital city. I don't think a doomed campaign for the Seanad was going to win over people that were still on the fence. In the meantime, she completely burned her bridges with a lot of people in her own party and probably annoyed a lot of potential future voters.

    She should get out of politics because clearly her judgement is terrible.

    It certainly makes the subject of this thread less likely. While the Greens will shed members at the fringes, it is clear the solid core of the party backs the current approach.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,504 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    blanch152 wrote: »
    It certainly makes the subject of this thread less likely. While the Greens will shed members at the fringes, it is clear the solid core of the party backs the current approach.
    Maybe the sheer amount of anti-car changes in Dublin city centre is keeping them sweet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,370 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    PommieBast wrote: »
    Maybe the sheer amount of anti-car changes in Dublin city centre is keeping them sweet.

    Or even the pro-cycling and pedestrian changes? (It's all a matter of framing)

    The people who gripe about that kind of thing tend not to be potential Green voters so those kinds of policies cost them nothing politically. They're also a lot faster to implement than things like altering the energy supply, retro-fitting houses or larger rail based infrastructure projects. They may be idealists but they seem to have learned that you need to have some quick wins to show your voters come the next election.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,504 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Or even the pro-cycling and pedestrian changes? (It's all a matter of framing)
    True, though I seriously take issue with some such as the coach stop at the top of O'Connell street was turned into bike rack.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eoghan-murphy-resigns-as-td-for-career-in-international-co-operation-1.4548873

    Eoghan Murphy's surprise resignation triggers a by-election in, wait for it, Hazel Chu's electoral area.

    Will the election bring peace and harmony for our beloved Green Party or will Hazel go rogue and the house of cards come tumbling down?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,370 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Chu will run one way or the other. I would bet that this will only cause more internal friction in the party given how she behaved over the Seanad election. She may need to leave the Greens once and for all and go independent or join that purported new party..


  • Registered Users Posts: 39,366 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Chu will run one way or the other. I would bet that this will only cause more internal friction in the party given how she behaved over the Seanad election. She may need to leave the Greens once and for all and go independent or join that purported new party..

    That Seanad run in hindsight may not have been the best decision and I can’t see her Green Party colleagues being all that happy to back her given how it was handled just a couple of weeks ago.


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,098 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    So the disintegration is back on the cards, should the Greens chose not to run a candidate and Hazel goes for it anyway at least.

    The adage about a week being a long time in politics was never truer!


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